数字经济促进产业结构升级的机制与效应研究

剖析数字产业化、产业数字化、数字经济促进产业结构升级的机制，构建门槛效应模型，收集2011—2020年我国内地30个省份数字经济与产业结构升级相关数据，测度数字产业化、产业数字化、数字经济的效应，并对各地区数字产业化与产业数字化水平的协同性进行可视化分析。结果表明，数字产业化对产业结构升级存在倒U型递增影响效应，产业数字化对产业结构升级存在正向递增影响效应，相较于产业数字化，数字产业化对产业结构升级的促进效应更强；数字经济对产业结构升级存在正向递增影响效应；数字产业化与产业数字化协同水平可分为双高型、双低型、数字产业化加强型、产业数字化加强型。在此基础上，提出有效促进产业结构升级的针对性建议。     

基于数据价值链的项目型企业数字化转型路径研究——以华为ISDP变革为例

数字经济深入推进使数字化转型成为企业发展的必然选择。针对传统项目型企业转型落后问题，构建项目型企业数字化转型路径，以华为公司项目数字化交付平台(ISDP)变革项目为例，基于数据价值链视角深入剖析企业在数字化转型时所面临的组织管理挑战和数据资源挑战，梳理华为基于ISDP变革的数字化转型内容。在此基础上，提出融合全域数据、规范数据标准、集成应用技术、释放数据价值四阶段路径，并建议项目型企业采用“构建业主—项目型企业—项目部数字纽带”“统一项目分解结构和编码体系”等方法进行变革转型，实现项目标准化，以期对项目型企业数字化转型理论和管理实践有所启示。     

Market Power and Marketisation: Japan and China's Impact on the Iron Ore Market, 50 Years Apart

ABSTRACT

How can we explain the marketisation of the iron ore market following the emergence of China, whereas the same market had seen change in the opposite direction following the emergence of Japan, 50 years earlier? I argue that relative coordination capacity – or relative market power – between domestic and international stakeholders explains market change at the global level. Via the study of Japan and China's impact on the iron ore pricing and shipping regimes, I show that China's rise led to the marketisation (liberalisation and financialisation) of the iron ore market pricing regime, and the demarketisation of the shipping regime, whereas Japan's rise led to demarketisation in both cases. This article's argument illustrates that China's impact is not equal across markets, contrary to characterisations of China as either a revisionist or status quo power. Second, it argues that China has caused the marketisation of the iron ore pricing regime, which is contrary to expectations on both sides of the debate on China's rise: China was unable to dictate outcomes via a strong state, nor did it seamlessly integrate the global economy. Third, it illustrates the importance of resonance dynamics at the interface of domestic and global market institutions.     

Integration into Global Production and Distribution Networks through FDI: The Case of Poland

Technological progress has led to increasing importance of the international division of labour organized around global production and distribution networks. Multinational corporations have been a driving force behind these developments. This article studies the role of MNCs in integrating a host country into the international system of division of labour in the context of Poland. It provides evidence of Poland's increasing participation in global production and distribution networks that is taking place through FDI inflows. It concludes that, thanks to a large volume of FDI inflows, Poland's exports driven by production fragmentation will continue to expand at even faster rates than those observed in recent years.     

数字化对制造业全球价值链竞争力的影响——来自中国制造业行业的经验证据

数字化是新时期提升制造业GVC竞争力的有效路径。系统梳理数字化影响制造业GVC竞争力的理论机制,并利用2000—2014年中国制造业面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明,制造业数字化通过成本效应、配置效应和协同效应促进GVC竞争力提升;样本考察期内,中国制造业GVC竞争力整体呈不断上升趋势,且基本稳定在前10行列,并以中低知识密集度行业竞争力最强;数字化整体上有利于GVC竞争力提升,分行业看,数字化对中低和中高知识密集度行业的GVC竞争力有显著促进作用;分投入来源看,国际数字化投入比国内数字化投入的促进效果更显著;分投入类型看,软件和信息技术服务业的促进效果最突出。结论可为制造企业制定数字化转型及GVC竞争力提升策略提供参考。     

数字经济核心产业对区域创新能力的影响机制研究——数字赋能产业的中介效应

虽然数字经济发展驱动区域创新能力提升已经取得一定成效，然而数字产业化和产业数字化的作用机制、影响路径仍有待深入研究。对国内31个省市2008-2019年数据进行中介效应模型检验发现，数字经济核心产业不仅能够直接提升区域创新能力，而且能够通过加速数字赋能产业发展，间接驱动区域创新能力提升。异质性检验结果表明，东部地区数字赋能产业的中介效应最显著，西部地区较弱。因此，可以因地制宜、精准施策，充分发挥数字经济对区域创新能力的积极影响。     

数字化能力、价值共创与企业绩效:基于数据安全的调节作用

数字经济驱动企业数字化转型，同时创新商业模式和价值创造模式。企业应用数字技术构建数字化能力，提高市场适应性，增强协同创新效率。此外，数据作为数字经济时代企业核心竞争力形成的重要资源，其安全性亦会影响数字化能力与企业绩效之间的关系。本文从企业绩效视角出发，以动态能力理论和价值共创理论为基础，采用逐层回归的研究方法，对550家中小制造企业数字化进行实证分析，检验数字化能力对企业绩效的影响。研究结果表明：数字化制造能力和数字化服务能力对企业绩效具有正向影响；数据安全在数字化制造能力与企业绩效之间具有负向调节作用，在数字化服务能力与企业绩效之间具有正向调节作用；数据安全在价值共创与企业绩效之间具有正向调节作用。价值共创在数字化能力与企业绩效之间起到部分中介作用。基于上述实证结果，文章揭示了数字化能力对企业创新绩效影响及数据安全的调节效应、价值共创的中介效应等机理。     

The economic impact of digital technologies in Europe

This paper analyses the economic impact of digital technologies in Europe distinguishing between different stages/domains of the digitalization process. A set of composite Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) indicators is used for capturing the access to ICTs, the ability to use them and the digital empowerment of individuals in key social and economic domains. We argue that the mere accessibility to ICT facilities is only a pre-condition for moving towards a digitalized society, while the ‘level’ and the ‘quality’ in the use of these technologies, as well as the conditions facilitating or hampering digital empowerment, play a much more important role. Several transmission mechanisms from ICT access, usage and digital empowerment to key macro-economic variables (namely labour productivity, gross domestic product per capita, employment growth and the employment rate) are identified. The econometric evidence supports our hypotheses showing that the usage of ICT, and mostly digital empowerment, exert the major economic effects, especially on employment also favouring the inclusion of ‘disadvantaged’ groups in the labour market. We conclude that digitalization may drive productivity and employment growth and that inclusive policies may effectively contribute to bridge the gap between the most favoured and the disadvantaged parts of the population, thus helping in achieving the 2020 Europe targets.     

制造业企业业务流程数字化与企业价值：基于动态能力的视角

本文从数字化转型的核心——业务流程数字化的视角,采用2007-2021年沪深A股上市公司制造业企业数据,基于动态能力理论来探索业务流程数字化对企业价值的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：采购和供应数字化、生产数字化和销售数字化对企业价值有显著的正向影响,通过工具变量法缓解内生性问题后结果依然显著。这种影响主要通过生产效率、吸收能力和创新能力的路径发挥作用。适应能力路径发挥了遮掩效应,部分原因在于适应能力对企业价值的二次非线性关系,以及企业资产规模对两者的负向调节作用。进一步分析发现,在业务流程数字化中,生产数字化通过生产效率提升企业价值的作用最小,通过技术创新提升企业价值的作用最大。这一结论不仅深化和拓展数字化转型理论基础,而且对制造企业实施数字化转型提供理论参考。     

数字经济如何影响制造业全球价值链地位：机制分析与空间溢出

当前，数字经济已成为稳定经济增长的新优势。构建数字经济影响制造业全球价值链地位的数理模型，利用2005—2020年中国省级面板数据，从数字产业化和产业数字化两方面构建省级数字经济发展水平综合评价指标体系，实证研究数字经济对制造业全球价值链地位的影响。结果表明，数字经济能显著提升省域制造业全球价值链地位且具有动态非线性递增效应；与东部地区和非“一带一路”沿线地区相比，数字经济对中西部地区和“一带一路”沿线地区制造业全球价值链地位的提升作用更大。就内在机制而言，提高技术创新能力和推动产业结构升级是数字经济影响制造业全球价值链地位的两条基本路径。进一步的空间杜宾模型分析表明，数字经济对制造业全球价值链地位的影响存在空间溢出效应。     

Global Value Chains in the Era of Digital Economy: Trends,Risks and Countermeasures

The new technological revolution has not only created the digital economy, but has also accelerated the digital transformation of global value chains (GVCs). Digital technologies have reshaped the specialization within global value chains by reducing costs, enabling industrial chains and increasing added value in exports. However, GVCs also face salient risks in the digital economy era, as reflected in their spatial layouts. The enabling effect of digital technologies has led to the shortening and reshoring of global value chains. In value chain governance, dominant countries have imposed technological embargoes on ascendant countries, depriving them of key technologies. In the distribution of value, the imbalances in the specialization within GVCs and digital divides have aggravated global economic inequities. Given the new characteristics and risks of GVCs in the era of the digital economy, as well as the “dual circulation” development paradigm, China’s industrial chains and firms moving up the GVCs need to regard data, the fifth type of production factor, as a key to the enabling effect of the digital economy on industries. These measures will advance the digital transformation of traditional industries and the development of the digital industry, as well as allow industrial chains and innovation chains to work in tandem to facilitate favorable domestic circulation. At the firm level, enterprises should further develop endogenous innovation capacity to become leaders in innovation and free themselves from dependence on foreign sources for key technologies.     

ICT and productivity: conclusions from the empirical literature

Innovation drives economic competitiveness and sustained long-term economic growth. Especially the emergence and intensive utilization of information and communication technologies (ICTs), which spawned the beginning of the digital economy two decades ago, heavily affected the opportunities and efficiency of how firms produce and provide goods and services. We provide an overview of the empirical literature on ICT and productivity and highlight the main results and methodological differences. The majority of studies indicates that the productivity effect of ICT is indeed positive and significant. However, methodological approaches of how to appropriately estimate the ICT effect matter. While aggregate and sectoral growth accounting exercises suggest stronger differences of the ICT effect between US and Europe, firm-level analyses suggest no significant country differences. Moreover, we shed light on the notion of ICT being a General Propose Technology (GPT) enabling further innovations. Most of the GPT evidence on ICT is found for the US, while evidence for European countries is harder to come by. However, more theoretical and empirical research is needed to better understand spillovers and externalities of ICT and how these technologies transform our economies.     

国外ICT产业智慧专业化评价研究回顾与展望

自OECD提出智慧专业化战略以来，越来越多国家和地区将ICT产业作为优先发展事项，国外学者也随之重视ICT产业智慧专业化相关研究。国外学者先后提出企业家发现过程嵌入、三螺旋演化延伸、全球价值链技术升级及产业集群竞争优势等ICT产业智慧专业化理论，描述智慧增长、可持续增长、包容性增长3个方面的发展目标，概括出以案例分析为主的定性方法、以构建模型为主的定量方法等ICT产业智慧化评价方法，探讨ICT产业智慧专业化与城市文化建设、行业伙伴关系、发展问题识别3个方面的效用。最后，对智慧专业化视角下的ICT产业发展进行系统分类梳理，提出未来发展方向。     

数字经济领域的研究述评、热点主题与新兴趋势——基于文献计量学的分析

为把握数字经济研究脉络、热点和趋势,基于Web of Science 核心数据库来源文献,利用CiteSpace和VOSviewer两种文献计量分析工具,对2009年以来数字经济文献进行计量分析。研究结果明确了数字经济年度发表趋势和领域类别、最具影响力和生产力的作者、机构、国家和期刊,数字经济相关研究在经历十几年的停滞后,目前处在快速增长期,研究学科集中在管理、环境科学、通信、环境研究和商业等领域,美国、英国和中国是重要的数字经济研究中心,国家之间和国际研究机构之间的研究合作有待加强。数字经济研究的突显主题经历了三个显著变化的发展阶段,呈现技术—产业—制度不断发展的演化脉络。数字经济研究热点集中在数字化、社会媒介、共享经济和循环经济等四个方面。综合关键词聚类结果和技术经济范式理论,从技术系统视角数字经济新兴趋势包括数字技术、智能资产和数字平台等;从产业系统视角包括商业模式、价值创造、循环经济、共享经济和零工经济等;从制度系统视角包括平台资本和政治经济等。最后是研究结论和展望。     

Assessing causal inference problems with Bayesian process tracing: the economic effects of proportional representation and the problem of endogeneity

ABSTRACT

In recent years, causal process tracing is becoming increasingly formalised as scholars have begun to follow Bayesian logic and thereby manage to combine the interpretative and contextual nuance of older forms of process tracing with the inferential rigours of Bayesian analysis. This paper illustrates the basic logic of Bayesian process tracing by drawing on the political economy literature that studies the social policy and economic effects of electoral systems. It compares and contrasts how each approach deals with the problem of endogeneity.     

Digital Economy Enables High-Quality Economic Development: Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence

Digital economy has become the primary motivation for high-quality economic development. Upon comprehensively analyzing the connotation of digital economy, this paper constructs an evaluation system from development environment, digital industrialization, industrial digitalization, and digital governance to measure China’s digital economy index from 2016 to 2018 using the entropy-based TOPSIS method. Also, based on the improved Feder dual sector model, this paper discusses the theoretical mechanism of digital economy promoting high-quality economic development directly and through improving economic efficiency and economic structure, and carries out an empirical test. According to findings, on the one hand, China is scaling up digital economy and accelerating digital transformation; on the other hand, the greater the likelihood that high-quality economic development is constrained by low economic efficiency and unreasonable economic structure, the greater the role of digital economy in promoting high-quality economic development. Therefore, this paper puts forward recommendations for China’s high-quality economic development, such as advancing new infrastructure construction, developing digital economy, improving economic efficiency and economic structure, and transforming the government governance model.     

Does the digital divide across countries lead to convergence? New international evidence

We examine the convergence of information and communication technologies (ICT) among 47 developed and emerging countries using annual data from 2000 to 2012. We construct an ICT development index using a principal component analysis. The results, based on a dynamic panel data model, reveal a divergence in ICT development. This study identifies two factors that drive a country's digitalization divergence level: the growth of per capita income and the ratio of urban to rural population. In addition, ICT divergence is higher in emerging countries than in developed countries.     

数字经济产业园区企业网络嵌入、数字化能力与开放式创新

以社会网络理论、动态能力理论等为理论基础,研究数字经济产业园区企业网络嵌入对开放式创新的影响。研究发现：网络嵌入显著正向影响数字经济产业园区企业开放式创新。机制分析表明,网络嵌入通过影响数字化能力进而提升数字经济产业园区企业开放式创新水平。进一步讨论发现,网络嵌入的子维度关系性网络嵌入对数字化能力的三个子维度数字感知能力、数字化运营能力、数字资源协同能力具有显著的正向影响;网络嵌入的子维度结构性网络嵌入对数字化能力的子维度数字感知能力和数字化运营能力具有显著的正向影响,但对数字资源整合能力的影响并不显著。本文对于数字经济产业园区构建协同共生网络生态,提高园区企业网络嵌入程度,进而培育和构建数字化能力,提高区域开放式创新水平提供了理论基础和一定的实践指导。     

我国信息通讯技术领域专利战略分析

对我国信息通讯技术（ICT）领域在1985-2006年期间的发明专利申请情况进行了分析,重点研究了在华知名跨国公司与国内企业在15个最主要的ICT子领域的发明专利申请情况,计算了主要ICT子领域对各企业的技术重要性、各企业在ICT子领域及整体领域的技术竞争指数、各企业在ICT子领域的技术比较优势指数等。研究结果揭示了我国ICT的重要技术创新和竞争子领域;在我国整体ICT领域的竞争指数最大的公司依次为三星、华为、松下等,而国内其他公司的竞争指数都较低;在各ICT子领域最具技术竞争力的公司几乎都是发明专利申请量最多的公司。研究进一步表明,并非所有公司都能在对其最具技术重要性的领域保持技术竞争优势。本土ICT企业要缩小与跨国公司的技术差距,必须重视对重要技术领域的选择并加大创新投入,实施专利战略,以保持自身在这些领域的相对技术比较优势。     

ICTs: Do they contribute to increased carbon emissions?

There is much evidence that the deployment of information and communications technologies (ICTs) can improve economic productivity, reduce energy intensity and exert downward pressure on renewable energy costs. While significant insights have been revealed about each of these effects in isolation, literature has not established their combined implications for carbon emissions. This article uses the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment system (www.ifs.du.edu) to explore the dynamic impacts of ICT on interacting global systems, including economic and energy systems, and resultant carbon emissions. First, it reviews the literature on the various impacts of ICT; next, it extracts relationships from previously existing quantitative studies on the subject; third, it explains the addition of these relationships to the IFs structure; fourth, it explores the implications of the acceleration of ICT penetration; finally, it frames a range of uncertainty around the analysis through scenarios. The authors argue that ICT can have a downward impact on overall carbon emissions across a 50-year time horizon. However, the net impact of ICT is limited, and if policy makers are concerned with substantial reductions in overall stocks of carbon in the atmosphere, our model shows that ICT promotion must be coupled a global price on carbon.