The impact of offering two versus three alternatives in choice modelling experiments

Researchers designing choice modelling experiments have some latitude over the number of choice alternatives that can be offered in each choice set. There is some evidence that design dimensions, including the number of alternatives available in each choice set, can influence model outcomes. A key issue is whether referendum formats with binary options are preferable to choice sets with multiple alternatives.A choice modelling experiment was performed where questionnaires delivered to two split samples differed only according to whether two or three alternatives were offered to respondents in each choice set. The results indicate that more robust models could be constructed from the three-alternative split compared to the two-alternative split. One reason for the difference is that respondents tended to display serial non-participation in the two-alternative format, choosing an alternative consistently without regard for changes in the attributes. For practitioners of the CM technique, the results suggest that it may be preferable to offer more than two alternatives in a choice set that includes a status quo option.     

Unemployment benefits and recall jobs: a split population model

We study the transitions out of unemployment of the recipients of insurance benefits, focusing on whether or not they are recalled to their previous employment. Specifically, a split population duration model (SPDM) for the recall decision by employers is compared with a standard duration model (SDM). We find significant differences between the SPDM and the SDM estimates, both with regard to their magnitude and expected sign. Some of the variables record undervalued estimated hazard rates in the SDM with respect to the SPDM.     

Estimation and testing of nonproportional Weibull hazard models

Most applications of the Weibull hazard model specify a common shape parameter. This is a proportional hazard model that imposes a common rate of duration dependence. A wide class of nonproportional Weibull models may be estimated by making the shape parameter a linear function of observable regressors. The log-likelihood function for these models is well behaved. The conditions under which this generalization is useful are essentially the same conditions under which interaction terms are useful in classical regression. Since the nonproportional model nests the proportional model, a formal test for nonproportionality may be conducted by likelihood ratio test. Estimation and testing of nonproportional models is illustrated with data sets for housing sales, out-of-court settlements and oil field exploration. Finally, estimation of a proportional Weibull model after adding temporal interaction terms to the regressors that specify the scale parameter is shown to be a fundamental misspecification. The standard log-likelihood function fails to recognize the stochastic nature of temporal interaction terms and the resulting estimates often fall outside the parameter space of the Weibull.     

Joint Quantity/Quality Management of Groundwater

Economic literature on groundwater managementhas traditionally been split into two areas: there are papers that evaluate different schemes of dynamicaquifer management, considering that pumping costs vary with stock but ignoring water quality. On the other hand, there are papers that considercontamination problems caused by specificpollutants. This paper presents two alternative models for joint quantity-quality management, and it shows that existing models are in fact special cases of these. The framework isdynamic and considers both the stock of waterquantity and a stock measure of water quality. Optimal taxes are derived, and shown to be different from those in existing quantity-only or quality-only models. Implementationproblems are briefly discussed.     

Inference for Optimal Split Point in Conditional Quantiles

In this paper we show the occurrence of cubic-root asymptotics in misspecified conditional quantile models where the approximating functions are restricted to be binary decision trees. Inference procedure for the optimal split point in the decision tree is conducted by inverting a t-test or a deviation measure test, both involving Chernoff type limiting distributions. In order to avoid estimating the nuisance parameters in the complicated limiting distribution, subsampling is proved to deliver the correct confidence interval/set.     

Endogenous Specialisation and Endogenous Principal-agent Relationship

The paper develops a general equilibrium model with endogenous principal-agent relationship within a framework of consumer-producer, economies of specialisation, and transaction costs. It is shown that if transaction efficiency is low, then autarky is chosen as the general equilibrium where no market and principal-agent relationship exists. As transaction efficiency is improved, the equilibrium level of division of labour increases, comparative advantage between ex ante identical individuals emerges from the division of labour, and the number of principal-agent relationships increases. The following features of the model distinguish it from other principal-agent models in the literature. The principal-agent relationships are not only endogenous, but also reciprocal between different specialists. In a general equilibrium environment, choice between pure pricing and contingent pricing is endogenised. In the paper, the implications of endogenous transaction costs caused by moral hazard for the equilibrium extent of the market and related degrees of market integration, production concentration, trade dependence, diversity of economic structure, and productivity are explored. The model predicts two interesting phenomena: a man might work harder for the market with moral hazard than working for himself in the absence of moral hazard; a market with moral hazard might be Pareto superior to autarky with no moral hazard.     

Identification of lagged duration dependence in multiple-spell competing risks models

We show that lagged duration dependence is non-parametrically identified in mixed proportional hazard models for duration data, in the presence of competing risks and consecutive spells.     

Intermediation by aid agencies

This paper models aid agencies as financial intermediaries that do not make a financial return to depositors, whose concern is to transfer resources to investor-beneficiaries. This leads to a problem of verifying that the agency is using donations as intended. One solution to this problem is for an agency to employ altruistic workers at below-market wages: altruistic workers, who can monitor the agency's activities, would not work at below-market rates unless they were genuinely transferring resources to beneficiaries. We consider conditions for this solution to be incentive compatible. In a model with pure moral hazard, observability of wages makes incorporation as a not-for-profit firm redundant as a commitment device. In a model with both moral hazard and adverse selection, incorporation as a not-for-profit firm can serve as a costly commitment mechanism reassuring donors against misuse of their funds. Hiring a worker of low ability can also be a valuable commitment device against fraud.     

Financial constraints and occupational choice in Thai villages

Financial constraints and entrepreneurship are key factors affecting economic performance in developing countries. I formulate and solve a model of occupational choice with moral hazard under three alternative financial market environments: savings only, borrowing and lending with default and moral hazard constrained insurance. I use computationally efficient techniques based on mechanism design, genetic algorithms and maximum likelihood to estimate and statistically test these models of financial constraints. Using occupational choice data from Thai villages I find evidence that the saving only regime is rejected in favor of regimes allowing for borrowing and/or insurance, especially in higher-wealth data stratifications. A direct test between the borrowing and insurance regimes reveals that neither can be rejected in favor of the other. Allowing ex-ante lotteries over wealth improves the explanatory power of the model. I also find evidence for differences in the best fitting regimes by region, wealth, and access to formal credit.     

Efficient moral hazard

This paper presents an infinite-horizon, discounted dynamic programming model of the endogenous opportunity costs of an agent’s effort that is allocated among an endogenous number of principals. An agent allocates effort between evaluating new principals and attending to current principals. Since each principal’s return is not maximized by the agent’s optimal allocation, moral hazard occurs in equilibrium. However, since the agent maximizes the total expected value of all undertaken projects, the agent’s allocation of effort is efficient. If the agent chooses a single principal, then moral hazard does not occur and the allocation is efficient. These results are contrary to the inefficient moral hazard results in bilateral principal-agent (P-A) and common agency (C-A) models.     

团队道德风险的再研究

该文着重考察两人管理团队中搭便车的古典问题.与纯道德风险问题不同,我们设想企业中的个人能力也会影响团队的产出.应用一个两期模型,我们表明在一个阿尔钦?德莫塞茨型企业中,即使进行有限期博弈,每个成员的努力水平也会比传统理论预测的高.我们认为这是由于团队成员间的相互可观测性引起的.因此我们可认为,管理团队中的自我激励机制的存在缓解了搭便车现象,这也可能是团队组织存在的原因.     

Lagged duration dependence in mixed proportional hazard models

We study the identification of a mixed proportional hazard model with lagged duration dependence when data provide multiple outcomes per stratum. Within strata variation is exploited to non-parametrically identify lagged duration dependence in more general models than in the literature.     

团队道德风险的再研究

本文着重考察两人管理团队中搭便车的古典问题。与纯道德风险问题不同,我们设想企业中的个人能力也会影响团队的产出。应用一个两期模型,我们表明在一个阿尔钦—德莫塞茨型企业中,即使进行有限期博弈,每个成员的努力水平也会比传统理论预测的高。我们认为这是由于团队成员间的相互可观测性引起的。因此我们可认为,管理团队中的自我激励机制的存在缓解了搭便车现象,这也可能是团队组织存在的原因。     

Sick of work or too sick to work? Evidence on self-reported health shocks and early retirement from the BHPS

We follow individuals as they retire using discrete-time hazard models applied to a stock sample from 12 waves of the British Household Panel Survey. We use a generalised ordered probit model to explore the existence of reporting bias and to purge the self-reported measure of health of this bias. This model takes into account the possibility that anticipated retirement may influence reporting of health. There is evidence that health shocks are a determinant of retirement age. This is the case for both men and women and is observed for both health limitations and a measure based on latent health status derived from the generalised ordered probit model. While the size of the health effect varies according to how we measure health, the relative effect is large compared to the other variables, and in particular when compared to the effects of private pensions. However numerical simulations show that this high hazard ratio interacts with the, relatively low, incidence of new health limitations among the age group of interest to generate only a modest number of excess early retirements. Further, our results do not show evidence that the health status of their partner affects the hazard of early retirement for both men and women. Having an employed partner does reduce the hazard of early retirement.     

INSURANCE‐INDUCED MORAL HAZARD: A DYNAMIC MODEL OF WITHIN‐YEAR MEDICAL CARE DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

This study quantifies the moral hazard effect of health insurance on medical expenditure by estimating a dynamic model of within‐year medical care consumption that allows for insurance selection, endogenous health transitions, and individual uncertainty about medical care prices in an environment where insurance has nonlinear cost‐sharing features. The results suggest that moral hazard accounts for 53.1%, on average, of total annual medical expenditure when insured. This estimate is significantly different, and generally larger, than that produced by an alternative model that is representative of the annual medical care decision‐making models commonly found in the literature.     

Introducing Time‐to‐Educate in a Job‐Search Model

Transition patterns from school to work differ considerably across OECD countries. Some countries exhibit high youth unemployment rates, which can be considered an indicator of the difficulty facing young people trying to integrate into the labour market. At the same time, education is a time‐consuming process, and enrolment and dropout decisions depend on expected duration of studies as well as on job prospects with and without completed degrees. One way to model entry into the labour market is by means of job‐search models, where the job arrival hazard is a key parameter in capturing the ease or difficulty in finding a job. Standard models of job search and education assume that skills can be upgraded instantaneously (and mostly in the form of on‐the‐job training) at a fixed cost. This paper models education as a time‐consuming process, a concept which we call time‐to‐educate, during which an individual faces the trade‐off between continuing education and taking up a job.     

Return Versus onward Migration: Go Back or Move On?

This paper examines the impact of unemployment on out-migration by distinguishing between return and onward migration and controlling for total earnings. We use Timing-of-Events models and control for the endogeneity of total earnings, unemployment and out-migration using administrative data from the Netherlands. Our findings suggest that unemployment triggers return migration more than onward migration. When total earnings are low unemployment increases the hazard of return migration. When total earnings are high the hazard rate of onward migration for unemployed immigrants increases. Thus, these findings highlight that out-migration is affected both by unemployment and by total earnings as well as by the interaction between the two.     

THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL OUTSOURCING ON LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN GERMANY

Using an administrative data set containing daily information on individual workers' employment histories, we investigate how workers' labour market transitions are affected by international outsourcing. In order to do so, we estimate hazard rate models for match separations, as well as for worker flows from employment to another job, to unemployment, and to nonparticipation. Outsourcing has a positive but small impact on overall job stability in the manufacturing sector, and considerably increases job stability in the service sector. However, the effect of outsourcing varies strongly across skill levels and age groups, with negative effects for some workers. This is especially the case in the manufacturing sector, where the hazard of transiting to nonemployment rises with international outsourcing for medium‐skilled and older workers.     

Forecasting Chinese Corporate Bond Defaults: Comparative Study of Market- vs. Accounting-Based Models

This paper provides the first empirical study on bond defaults in the Chinese market. It overcomes the deficiencies of existing methods, which suffer from lack of actual default data for back testing. With newly available bond default data, we analyze the roles of market variables against accounting variables under various models. While we find that Merton’s market-based structural model and KMV’s Distance to Default exhibit languid discriminating power compared with hazard models that have carefully constructed predictors, other market variables carry significant information about bond defaults and could help improve on models with only the accounting variables. This implies that the collective intelligence of the market could somehow mitigate the distortion caused by misreported accounting information. Further, model performance can be significantly improved by adding predicting variables that link an individual financial measure to the broader market performance, such as the relative margin—a business environment proxy introduced in this study. We not only shed light on the default behavior of the Chinese bond market, but also provide a promising approach to improve the variable selection process.     

THE PERSISTENCE OF INCOME POVERTY AND LIFESTYLE DEPRIVATION: EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

This article estimates poverty persistence over an individual's lifetime, using two definitions: income poverty and a multidimensional index of lifestyle deprivation. We stress the ability of the two definitions to provide a generally consistent characterization of poverty persistence risks faced by various population subgroups, but also the additional insights to be gained by analysing the two definitions in parallel in a longitudinal context. The results of multiple‐spell hazard rate models highlight the weaknesses of the Italian labour market, the insufficiencies of the existing social security system, and the deep territorial dualism in generating persistent poverty for certain groups of the population.