New approach to estimating the cost of common equity capital for public utilities

The regulatory process for setting public utilities’ allowed rate of return on common equity has generally used the Gordon DCF, CAPM and Risk Premium specifications to estimate the cost of common equity. Despite the widely known problems with these models, there has been little movement to adopt more recently developed asset pricing models to provide additional evidence for estimating the cost of capital. This paper presents, validates empirically and applies a general yet simple consumption-based asset pricing specification to model the risk-return relationship for stocks and estimate the cost of common equity for public utilities. The model is not necessarily superior to other models in its practical results, yet these results do indicate that it should be used to provide additional estimates of the cost of common equity. Additionally, the model raises doubts as to whether assets such as utility stocks are a consumption (business cycle) hedge.     

管理者过度自信对股权融资成本的影响——基于信息透明度的视角

以2009年和2010年具备股权再融资资格的中国上市公司为研究对象,从信息透明度的角度考察管理者过度自信对股权融资成本的影响。研究发现:管理者过度自信对上市公司的信息透明度和股权融资成本具有负面影响;具体而言,管理者越倾向于过度自信,上市公司的收益平滑度越高,因此收益透明度越低;相比非过度自信管理者所在的企业,过度自信管理者所在企业的股权融资成本更高。     

Optimal bank interest margins under capital regulation in a call-option utility framework

This paper examines the optimal bank interest margin under capital regulation when the bank's preference admits an additive call-option representation including both the like of higher equity return and the dislike of higher equity risk. In the call-option utility maximization, an increase in the capital requirement results in an increased amount of loans held by a bank at a reduced margin when loan quality is in distress. We also show that the impact on the bank interest margin from an increase in the capital requirement which ignores the dislike, that we call such behavior call-option equity maximization, leads to significant underestimation. Our results cast doubt on the effectiveness of capital regulation to exert a risk-reducing and return-increasing effect on the bank in particular where loan quality becomes worse, thereby adversely affecting the stability of the banking system.     

中国上市公司股权融资偏好解析——偏好股权融资就是缘于融资成本低吗?

我国上市公司存在较为强烈的股权融资偏好 ,对此 ,理论界一般将其直接动因归结为股权融资成本偏低。然而 ,本文分析表明 ,融资成本因素并不能完全解释我国上市公司的股权融资偏好行为。为此 ,我们进一步采用Logit模型 ,从融资成本、破产风险、负债能力约束、代理成本和控制权等因素多角度考察了我国上市公司融资行为的影响因素。研究发现 ,企业资本规模和自由现金流越低 ,净资产收益率和控股股东持股比例越高 ,则企业越有可能选择股权融资方式。但本文研究未发现企业破产风险和成长性指标对企业融资决策有影响。同时 ,本文研究还发现 ,股权融资成本与上市公司股权融资概率正相关。本文最后基于上述发现提出了若干政策建议。     

Risk and regret aversions on optimal bank interest margin under capital regulation

This paper examines the bank's optimal loan rate (and thus the bank's interest margin) under more stringent capital regulation when the bank is not only risk-averse but also regret-averse. Risk-averse preferences are characterized by an option-based utility function that includes disutility from the dislike of bank equity risk. Regret-averse preferences feature an option-based utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that an increase in bank capital requirement results in an increased margin under risk aversion dominating regret aversion, whereas it results in a reduced margin under regret aversion dominating risk aversion. The former holds when risk aversion domination stems from increasing risk-averse preference, but not from decreasing regret-averse preference, while the latter holds when regret aversion domination results from either decreasing risk-averse or increasing regret-averse preference. Risk aversion, as such, makes the bank more prudent and less prone to risk-taking, while regret aversion, as such, makes the bank less prudent and more prone to risk-taking.     

信息披露质量与股权融资成本

本文以深圳证券市场A股上市公司为样本,研究中国上市公司的信息披露质量是否会对其股权融资成本产生影响。我们采用剩余收益模型计算上市公司的股权融资成本,分别以披露总体质量与盈余披露质量指标反映上市公司的信息披露质量。研究发现,在控制β系数、公司规模、账面市值比、杠杆率、资产周转率等因素的条件下,信息披露质量较高的样本公司边际股权融资成本较低,这说明我国上市公司的信息披露质量会对其股权融资成本产生积极影响。研究还发现,盈余平滑度和披露总体质量是影响样本公司股权融资成本的主要信息披露质量特征。最后基于上述发现提出了若干政策建议。     

Corporate tax avoidance and cost of equity capital: international evidence

ABSTRACT

This study examines the association between firm’s tax avoidance activities and cost of equity capital across 17 countries. Consistent with the prior study based on the U.S. evidence, within strong investor protection countries, the extent of firm’s tax avoidance is negatively associated with its cost of equity capital. This result indicates that strong investor protection induces investors to perceive firm’s tax avoidance activities as the results of efficient tax planning to reduce tax liabilities. To the contrary, we find that the extent of firm’s tax avoidance is positively associated with its cost of equity capital within weak investor protection countries. This result suggests that investors impose equity risk premium on firm’s tax avoidance activities in weak investor protection countries, where agency conflicts prevail more on firm’s tax avoidance activities. As the first international study on the association between firm’s tax avoidance activities and its cost of equity capital, this study contributes to the literature by suggesting that such an association may vary across countries depending on the strength of investor protection within each country of domicile.     

信息披露、透明度与资本成本

信息披露对公司权益资本成本影响的研究对上市公司与监管机构都有着非常深刻的意义 ,然而披露水平与权益资本成本之间的联系往往并不明确 ,特别是在发展中国家。本文运用 2 0 0 2年前在上海证券交易所上市的 51 6家公司数据 ,检验了上市公司权益资本成本与其自愿披露水平的关系。在控制了公司规模与财务风险变量之后 ,本文结论显示 :上市公司信息披露水平的提高有助于降低公司的权益资本成本     

控股股东股权质押会增加企业权益资本成本吗——基于中国上市公司的经验证据

本文以2003—2014年A股上市公司为研究样本,探讨了控股股东股权质押与权益资本成本之间的关系。本文研究发现,相较于不存在控股股东股权质押的上市公司,存在控股股东股权质押的上市公司的权益资本成本更高。进一步分析,本文发现股权质押引起的掏空行为发挥着中介作用,还发现控股股东股权质押与权益资本成本之间的正相关关系在股价崩盘风险较高、上证A股指数较低、熊市年度组、信息质量较低组更加明显,这表明控股股东股权质押与上市公司权益资本成本之间的正相关关系是由控股股东股权质押引起的掏空行为和控制权转移风险引起的。最后,本文发现有效的公司治理能够缓解控股股东股权质押与权益资本成本之间的正相关关系。本文的研究有助于进一步认识和了解控股股东股权质押可能产生的经济后果。     

Life with habit and expectation: A new explanation of equity premium puzzle

Previous writers have attempted to resolve the equity premium puzzle by employing a utility function that depends on current consumption minus (or relative to) past habit consumption. This paper points out that an individual's current utility may also depend upon how well off in the recent past he or she had expected to be today. Hence we add the concept “expectation formation” to the utility modification term in a model with a habit‐formation utility function. We apply the model to the equity premium puzzle and find that it is able to fit the data with a relatively low coefficient of relative risk aversion. Furthermore, we introduce an updated data sample and apply different values of discounting factors, and find that in all circumstances, the model is able to generate coefficients of risk aversion that are consistent with theory. Hence we conclude that the model is able to resolve the equity premium puzzle.     

Default probability of a captive credit bank with government capital injections: A capped barrier option approach

Auto dealers use floorplan financing to buy cars from the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with credit typically provided by the OEM's captive credit bank. The purpose of this paper is to explicate and model captive bank lending to dealers and determine the loan-risk default probability in equity returns of the captive bank under government capital injections during a financial crisis. The lending function of the captive bank necessitates modeling equity return as a “capped” barrier option. Numerical exercises show that a decrease in the discount rate of the floorplan financing or an increase in the amount of government capital injection decreases the default probability in equity returns of the captive bank. Floorplan or government assistance enables the captive bank to be much less prone to loan risk, specifically with large-scale dealers which can substantially affect the stability of the banking system.     

Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Australia

This paper examines the optimality of international capital flows to Australia, a persistent net importer of capital, during its post‐capital controls period 1984–99. The evolution of Australia’s current account balance is compared against a benchmark derived from an optimising model of intertemporal consumption smoothing. The consumption‐smoothing approach to the determination of the current account implies that international capital flows act as a buffer to smooth aggregate consumption in the face of temporary shocks to the economic fundamentals: changes in national cash flow (that is, changes in the level of output, investment or government spending). It is found that in the early 1990s a structural break occurred in the relationship between consumption and national cash flow, which coincides with a switch from debt‐financing to equity‐financing of the current account deficit. In the decade of the 1990s following this structural break (and unlike the decade of the 1980s which preceded this break), international capital flows to Australia implied a path for consumption which was broadly consistent with expected‐utility maximisation under the consumption‐smoothing model of the current account.     

上市公司大股东控制下的资本配置行为研究——基于控制权收益视角的实证分析

基于控制权收益①驱动公司资本配置行为的理论阐释,结合我国上市公司特有的股权结构及其导致的控制权分配格局,文章从固定资产投资和股权投资两个方面,对形成我国上市公司控制权收益的资本配置行为进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:(1)控制权收益水平与资本配置规模显著正相关;(2)控制权收益水平越高,则增加等量控制权收益所需的资本配置规模就越大;(3)较固定资产投资而言,通过股权并购方式取得控制权收益的代价较低,但控制性股东占有被并购公司控制权收益的比例也较低;(4)上市公司资本配置行为在形成控制权收益的同时并没有通过提高公司业绩而增加控制权的共享收益,资本配置决策在很大程度上是大股东控制下的自利行为。     

International Reserves and the Composition of Foreign Equity Investment

This paper studies the effect of central banks' international reserve hoardings on the composition of foreign equity investment. Specifically, it examines whether reserves affect the share of foreign portfolio equity investment (PEI) in total foreign equity investment, which includes both PEI and foreign direct investment (FDI). Foreign investors' decisions regarding the location and the type of equity capital investment might be influenced by a country's level of international reserves. In a simple theoretical model, it is shown that higher reserves, thanks to their ability to lower exchange rate risk, reduce the risk premium of PEI. Hence, higher reserves are expected to increase the inflow of PEI relative to FDI. This hypothesis is tested for a sample of 76 developing countries during the period 1980–2010 using different estimation methods, model specifications and data samples. The results suggest that higher levels of reserves are associated with a larger share of PEI relative to FDI. This result points to a collateral benefit of reserves that has been neglected so far. Reserves may contribute to develop domestic financial markets and facilitate domestic firms' access to foreign portfolio equity financing. In addition, this paper finds a strong negative effect of the global financial crisis beginning in 2008 on the share of PEI, which confirms the hypothesis that PEI is more crisis‐dependent than FDI.     

基于效用成本风险异质性的消费资本资产定价模型

资产定价既是现代金融的核心,也是许多困惑之所在,其中最著名的就是股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜。本文对消费资本资产定价模型中的效用成本做了重新思考,引入"效用成本风险异质性"的概念,并将效用成本区分为"消费效用成本"和"风险效用成本"。在此基础上,本文提出了消费资本资产定价模型的新形式,并对股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜进行解释。     

The relevance of supply shocks for inflation: the spanish case

A retrenchment in crossborder credit is under way, the product of both market forces and political pressure on international banks to lend at home (Economist, 2009). In addition, banks, particularly the largest, have also dramatically expanded their retail banking operations over the past few years (Hirtle and Stiroh, 2007). Our goal, in this article, is to study the effects of default risk on equity returns through bank interest margin management under a renewed focus on domestic retail banking, a trend often attributed to the stability of banking activities. Specifically, this article explores the determinants of optimal bank interest margins based on an option-based firm-theoretical model with multiple sources of structural breaks due to political pressure. The model demonstrates how capital regulation and political pressure on foreign lending return and risk conditions jointly determine the optimal bank interest margin decision. We show that a more stringent capital requirement is linked with lower equity return, but higher default risk of the bank in the return to domestic retail banking. An increased focus on the political pressure on foreign lending return is linked with higher equity return and default risk of the bank. It is also showed that an increased focus on the political pressure on foreign lending risk decreases the bank's equity return and default risk. We conclude that the return to domestic retail banking may be a relatively stable activity when the political pressure decision impacts only the expected risk of the bank's foreign lending and not the return.     

控制权、资本成本、现金流和中小房地产融资模式——以DH地产为例

本文在比较各融资方式效率的基础上,基于控制权、资本成本和现金流的分析,提出了中小房地产企业融资模式确立的系统框架,并以DH房地产企业为例进行详细的说明。结论表明,无股权出让的融资模式和有股权出让的绝对控股融资模式对于DH地产都是可行的,各有利弊,要根据控制性股东个人对于控制权以及个人利益最大化还是企业利益最大化的偏好进行相机选择;利用股权出让获得银行担保贷款的融资模式,资本成本很低;部分控制权的转移,有助于企业绩效增长,但是,如果小股东过多,则搭便车现象严重,反而使企业绩效下降,二者之间应该存在一个均衡。     

The influence of ownership on the cost of bus service provision in Switzerland - an empirical illustration

In deregulated transport markets, a firm's ownership status and management system represent an important issue. Property right theory suggests that productivity and performance are higher in the private than in the public sector. In Switzerland, providers of bus transportation are traditionally corporations, though a large part of their equity shares are still held by the public sector (federal government, cantons, municipalities). This paper examines the potential impact of ownership on the cost of bus service provision for a sample of private, public and mixed bus companies in Switzerland. The estimation of a translog cost model has been considered for 34 bus transit companies observed over 5 years (1991–1995). The results only partially confirm that if the private sector holds shares in the company's capital, efficiency is enhanced. In addition, measures of economies of scale and density are derived and discussed within the actual public transport policy.     

Study of the effect of a Financial Transaction Tax on the corporate cost of capital

We study the impact of a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT or Tobin Tax) on the corporate cost of capital. We consider the results on the impact of transaction costs on implied volatility and then use the utility maximization of a market-maker and its asymptotic solution. The FTT impact on volatility, in highly liquid equity option markets, is within two decimals (‘the tick value’) and is insignificant. The volatility impact is considerable for illiquid option markets especially long-dated equity options, used for the hedging of credit default swaps (CDS). The credit spread increase is computed using a structural model, and amounts between 30 and 60 basis points (b.p). per annum, for 5–20 year maturities, and a volatility level of 30%. The impact decreases with the corporation leverage ratio. We calibrate from the CDS market the implied volatility for six European corporations and find an increase in spreads by up to 60%. For a corporation with a 343 b.p. 5-year CDS spread, the increase amounts to 174 b.p. On the basis of this sample, the impact we find is between 5 and 20 times higher than the one computed in the study of Lendvai et al. which has been used by European Union authorities to assess the impact on the cost of capital.     

Equilibrium asset pricing under the Lévy process with stochastic volatility and moment risk premiums

In this paper, we extend Zhang, Zhao and Chang's (2012) production-based equilibrium asset pricing model from a jump diffusion setting to a Lévy process with stochastic volatility. This paper is a further extension of Fu and Yang (2012), which is under a Lévy process with a constant volatility. Using newly developed closed-form formulas of equity premium and pricing kernel, we are able to price Schouten's (2005) moment swaps analytically. Numerical results show that our pricing formula performs very well. Our model explains Zhao, Zhang and Chang's (2013) empirical observations on moment risk premiums.