Interdependencies in the energy–bioenergy–food price systems: A cointegration analysis

The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant.     

The effect of biofuel policies on feedstock market: Empirical evidence for rapeseed oil prices in EU

The growing expansion of biofuel production in the European Union is a direct consequence of the political framework specifically implemented to reduce the impact of oil price rises and to achieve fuel security and environmental goals. These policies have activated a new relationship between fossil fuel and vegetable oil prices. Combining a multiple structural change approach with rolling cointegration, the article identifies four structural breaks in the relationships between the price of mineral and vegetable oils. Results show that policy instruments are responsible for these structural changes in the long-run relationships between prices. The analysis also shows that from the implementation of the directive 2003/30/EC the price dynamic of rapeseed oil has shifted from its own market to the diesel market, making it subject to interactions with the more complex reality of mineral oil.     

Long-run waves or short-run fluctuations – what establishes the correlation between oil and food prices?

The strong correlation between food prices and energy prices has gained much attention in the public debate. In this article, we focus on the so-called excess co-movement, which is the correlation between crude oil price and the prices of food commodities after controlling for economic activity. We use a frequency domain Granger causality test to analyse short-run and long-run relationships between crude oil prices and prices of food commodities. For important biofuel inputs like maize, soybeans, rapeseed and EU sugar, we find evidence for long-run Granger causality in particular for the period after 2007. This supports the hypothesis that the increasing biofuel production creates the link between the prices of crude oil and food commodities. However, we also find short-run Granger causality for various food commodities. This result is more in line with herd behaviour or speculation in commodity markets.     

我国稳定粮食价格长效机制构建研究

文章论述了我国稳定粮食价格的数量界定,即年度间波动不超过5%;一年中波动不能超过50%。并重点阐释了我国粮食价格稳定长效机制的构建,主要有:坚持18亿亩耕地红线,大搞农业基础设施建设,加大粮食科技投入,加快发展农业生产合作社,继续完善粮食最低收购价格政策,控制农业生产资料价格,完善我国粮食生产补赔政策,完善我国粮食储备制度,创新粮食保险制度,强化粮食风险调节基金等。     

The economics of oil,biofuel and food commodities

We study the effects on the food price of introducing biofuels as a substitute for fossil fuel in the energy market. Energy is supplied by a price-leading oil cartel and a competitive fringe of farmers producing biofuel. Biofuel production shares a finite land resource with food production. A positive relationship results between energy and food prices. We establish that the equilibrium price of food will be growing as long as the oil stock is being depleted, and beyond if demand is growing. An analysis of the effects of the productivity of land use in either the food or the biofuel sectors is carried out. It is shown that, with a highly inelastic demand for food, an increase in the productivity of land in agriculture will decrease the price of food in the short-run, only to increase it in the long-run as the stock of fossil fuel is depleted.     

The economics of oil,biofuel and food commodities

We study the effects on the food price of introducing biofuels as a substitute for fossil fuel in the energy market. Energy is supplied by a price-leading oil cartel and a competitive fringe of farmers producing biofuel. Biofuel production shares a finite land resource with food production. A positive relationship results between energy and food prices. We establish that the equilibrium price of food will be growing as long as the oil stock is being depleted, and beyond if demand is growing. An analysis of the effects of the productivity of land use in either the food or the biofuel sectors is carried out. It is shown that, with a highly inelastic demand for food, an increase in the productivity of land in agriculture will decrease the price of food in the short-run, only to increase it in the long-run as the stock of fossil fuel is depleted.     

The aggregate elasticity of factor substitution with middle products

The elasticity of substitution between factors in production relates the change in the ratio of factors used in a production process to a given change in the factor price ratio. An aggregate concept of such an elasticity relates a change in overall factor endowments to the resulting change in factor prices. For a closed economy the behavior of consumers is an important part of such an aggregate elasticity, since endowment changes can bring about changes in commodity prices and resulting adjustments to factor prices. For a small open economy, commodity prices in typical models are exogenous. In the model with middle products, all final consumer goods are non-traded, so that local consumer behavior can affect factor prices. The aggregate elasticity of substitution is shown to be an average of production elasticities and demand elasticity even for a small open economy.     

Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply

This study aims to determine whether carbon sequestration policies could present a significant contribution to the global portfolio of climate change mitigation options. The objective is to model the effects of policies designed to induce landowners to change land use and management patterns with a view to sequester carbon or to reduce deforestation. The approach uses the spatially explicit Dynamic Integrated Model of Forestry and Alternative Land Use (DIMA) to quantify the economic potential of global forests. The model chooses which of the land-use processes (afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, or conservation and management options) would be applied in a specific location, based on land prices, cost of forest production and harvesting, site productivity, population density, and estimates of economic growth. The approach is relevant in that it (1) couples a revised and updated version of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios with the dynamic development of climate policy implications through integration with the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE); (2) is spatially explicit on a 0.5° grid; and (3) is constrained by guaranteeing food security and land for urban development. As outputs, DIMA produces 100-year forecasts of land-use change, carbon sequestration, impacts of carbon incentives (e.g., avoided deforestation), biomass for bioenergy, and climate policy impacts. The modeling results indicate that carbon sequestration policies could contribute to a significant part of the global portfolio of efficient climate mitigation policies, dependent upon carbon prices.     

TERRORISM AND THE RETURNS TO OIL

The effect of terrorism on global oil prices has been largely explained through demand-side effects. We estimate an empirical model to re-examine the effect of terrorism on the price of global oil stocks across oil market regimes that reflect different supply constraints. We believe that terrorism will have larger impacts when global capacity is tight (i.e. when global demand is close to global supply). This means that any shock to capacity (say by conflict) should have the largest impact on profits before the first OPEC shock in the early 1970s. Since then, conflict shocks would not allow firms to exploit production in the same way, thus reducing the available profits that could be garnered by such production manipulation. If capacity constraints are binding when a conflict occurs, then we predict that a positive stock price reaction can be expected for oil firms from such a shock. We exploit a new panel dataset to investigate the relationship between oil profitability and conflict, using conflict data from the top 20 oil producing and exporting countries in the world. We show that in the later part of our sample, 1974–2005, as cartel behavior of OPEC member countries has diminished and as conflict has become more regular and thus the information surrounding it noisier, oil stock prices do not increase in response to conflict. However, in earlier capacity constrained eras, we find that oil stocks can in fact increase in response to conflict. In some cases, the impact of conflict may cause the return of oil stocks to increase by as much as 10 percentage points.     

Economic Potential of Biomass Based Fuels for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

Use of biofuels diminishes fossil fuelcombustion thereby also reducing net greenhousegas emissions. However, subsidies are neededto make agricultural biofuel productioneconomically feasible. To explore the economicpotential of biofuels in a greenhouse gasmitigation market, we incorporate data onproduction and biofuel processing for thedesignated energy crops switchgrass, hybridpoplar, and willow in an U.S. AgriculturalSector Model along with data on traditionalcrop-livestock production and processing, andafforestation of cropland. Net emissioncoefficients on all included agriculturalpractices are estimated through crop growthsimulation models or taken from the literature. Potential emission mitigation policies ormarkets are simulated via hypothetical carbonprices. At each carbon price level, theAgricultural Sector Model computes the newmarket equilibrium, revealing agriculturalcommodity prices, regionally specificproduction, input use, and welfare levels,environmental impacts, and adoption ofalternative management practices such asbiofuel production. Results indicate no rolefor biofuels below carbon prices of $40 perton of carbon equivalent. At these incentivelevels, emission reductions via reduced soiltillage and afforestation are more costefficient. For carbon prices above $70,biofuels dominate all other agriculturalmitigation strategies.     

Non‐Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?

Abstract. While some of the recent surges in oil prices can be attributed to a robust global demand at a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame the impact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators. Whereas trend-extrapolating chartists may tend to destabilize the market, fundamentalists exercise a stabilizing effect on the price dynamics. Using monthly data for West Texas Intermediate oil prices, our STR-GARCH estimates indicate that oil price cycles may indeed emerge due to the non-linear interplay between different trader types.     

Quotas and the structure of consumer demand

In the direct utility function, quantities axe exogenous, while prices and total expenditure are endogenous. Consequently, this utility function is appropriate for analyzing the impact on prices and total expenditure from an exogenous change in the quantity of a commodity. Such an exogenous change in quantity could occur when quotas change. The direct translog utility function is estimated for a four commodity breakdown of U.S. expenditure. Estimates of quantity elasticities of price and expenditure indicate that domestically produced non-durables are necessities. As a result, the imposition of quotas on these goods will be particularly deleterious to lower income consumers.     

European Integration and Production in the French Economy

Effects of greater European integration on the French economy are explored with an aggregate cost function. Input direct price elasticities are inelastic, but greatest (absolute value) for capital and lowest for imports. Cross-price elasticities suggest inputs are substitutes and are higher for domestic inputs than domestic input and imports pairs. As trade restrictions fall, effects on domestic input demand may increase as substitution elasticities rise. Inverse output supply price elasticities indicate domestic input prices are relatively important factors affecting consumption goods prices and import prices more important for investment goods. Thus, import price decreases may stimulate investment and growth. (JEL F14 , O10 , O12 )     

Modeling Impact of Development Trajectories and a Global Agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation on Congo Basin Forests by 2030

The Congo Basin encompasses the second largest rainforest area after the Amazon but the Congo Basin rainforest has been more preserved during the last decades with a much lower deforestation rate. At the same time, the region remains one of the least developed in the world. We use the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM for the global agricultural, forestry and bioenergy sectors that seeks to find optimal land use options by spatially representing land qualities. We show the trade-offs between achieving agricultural growth at the expense of forests and protecting forests at the expense of agriculture development in the Congo Basin. The realization of the transportation infrastructures, which are already planned and funded, could multiply deforestation by three. In contrast, a global agreement on reduction of total emissions from deforestation could achieve important cuts in GHG emissions from deforestation in the Congo Basin. However, it could lead to substantial increases in food imports and food prices, which are in contradiction with the food security objectives.     

Land-use changes, forest/soil conditions and carbon sequestration dynamics: A bio-economic model at watershed level in Nepal

A dynamic bio-economic model has been used at watershed level in Nepal to analyze the land-use changes, forest and soil conditions and their resultant impacts on carbon (C) sequestration. Planning horizon of the model extends over a period of 25 years. The objective function is maximization of the sum of discounted net income flows from agriculture, livestock and forestry productions; imputed value of leisure and labour hiring out activities subject to annual constraints on land, labour and capital availability along with the fulfilment of minimum cash and consumption requirements. The seven scenarios analyzed by the model are: business as usual (BAU), reduction in population growth rate from 2 to 1.5% p.a., increased prices of major crops by 10 and 20%, reduction in emigration of active labour force from the watershed from the current rate of 20–15 and 10%, and increase in discount rate from 5 to 10%. The results indicate that reduced labour emigration rates and increase in the prices of major crops lead to expansion of cultivated area and shift from one land use to the others. Land clearing becomes more severe with decline in labour emigration rate. Up to 10% increase in the prices of agricultural crops does not have noticeable effect on total land clearing. Increase in discount rate leads to less land clearing, more biomass harvesting and higher net C sequestration as compared to the BAU scenario. Assuming a C price of 10 USD per MgC and 5% discount rate, the net present value of C sequestration for the first 25 years is estimated at 1.83 mill USD in the BAU scenario, varying from 0.16 mill USD to 2.26 mill USD, as respectively the lowest and highest values for the seven scenarios analysed. A reduction in population growth and maintenance of current rate of off-farm employment are suggested for slowing down the expansion of cultivated land area, and thereby reducing the forest/soil degradation and C emissions. This in turn would enhance the income potential from C sequestration.     

Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns

During the last decades, the world energy dependence increased significantly. Understanding how companies depend on oil prices is essential, especially for countries highly dependent or importers. The work intends to investigate the relationship between oil price changes and Portuguese listed companies’ returns. Using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, we conclude that nearly 20 % of the companies are significantly affected by oil prices, finding also evidence that these effects are asymmetric, depending on the company’s current situation in the market (result attributed to the lack of liquidity and the small number of firms included within the sample). There exists some differences among economic sectors in the way they are impacted by oil price changes, although not so much significant. The results show that the bigger the company, the higher the probability of being significantly affected by oil price changes. Results suggest that lagged oil price positive shocks increase Portuguese companies’ returns, by opposition to the current oil price change. Findings highlight the key role played by aggregate demand-side oil price shocks over the financial economic activity, showing sector and individual companies’ differences, thus inducing the possibility of results being highly dependent over the economic context faced by the country under analysis, that firms are more sensitive to oil prices when the equity market is busiest and that oil price increases affect companies returns in a negative way, but price decreases cause more positive than negative effects over company returns.     

Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective

The spike in international food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 drew much attention to the vulnerability of the poor to such shocks. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices of agricultural goods on global poverty using a representative sample of 63–93% of the developing world's population. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food price data between January 2005 and December 2007—when the relative price of food staples rose by an average of 5.6%—to find that the number of individuals living under the extreme poverty line increased by 155 million, with almost three‐quarters of this increase taking place in East Asia. To take the second‐order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that the same increase in consumer prices of agricultural goods (modeled by increasing demand for first‐generation biofuels) would raise the number of individuals living under extreme poverty by 32 million, with nearly the entire increase occurring in South Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa.     

The demand for residential electricity: new evidence on time-varying elasticities

This study employs a generalized functional form to examine demand for residential electiricity. The appropriatenes of the conventional double-log and linear forms are tested. Time-varying elasicities are estimated. Major findings are summarized as follows:(1) the double-log and linear forms can be rejected at the 0.05 and 0.01 levels, respectively; (2) long-run own-price elasticities declined in absolute value consistently from 2.13 to 1.19 during the period 1950–87; (3) long-run income elasticities also decreased from 1.29 to 0.97 during the same period; and (4) long-run corss-Price elasticities with respect to the price of natural gas dropped form 0.40 to 0.29. These results may be heplful to decision makers in determining the change in total revenues owning to the change in prices, pricing strategies, the effectiveness of energy conservation programmes, the effect of rising real income on the demand for residential electricity and future demand.     

The effects of price on household demand for food and calories in poor countries: are our databases giving reliable estimates?

Food price policy relies heavily on estimated price elasticities of food demand to help balance the nutritional and economic objectives in poor countries. Economists use either unit values (ratios of household expenditure to quantity purchased) or community prices (enumerated from vendors in local markets) as proxies for market prices when estimating price elasticities with household survey data. Biases are believed to result from using unit values, due to measurement error and quality effects, but evidence on this issue is lacking and even less is known about community prices. This article provides an empirical evidence from Vietnam, which suggests that economists should exercise caution when estimating price elasticities from household surveys. A 14-food demand system is estimated alternatively with unit values or community prices, and the elasticity of calories with respect to rice prices is calculated. This elasticity is more than twice as large (?0.54 versus ?0.22) when community prices are used rather than unit values. Hence, conclusions about the nutritional effects of rice price increases appear sensitive to data choices made by economists. More generally, this discrepancy suggests that the household survey databases commonly used by economists may not provide reliable estimates.     

Leave it in the ground? Oil sands development under carbon pricing

We evaluate the impact of internalizing the carbon emissions externality on new oil sands projects. Using data from recent oil sands projects and estimates of both the social costs of carbon and carbon prices consistent with meeting global climate change targets, we estimate the potential impact of action on climate change on the economic viability of oil sands investments. Our results indicate that oil sands are a marginal resource before they incur any carbon costs. Incorporating carbon costs, we find that the viability of oil sands depends on the coverage of carbon pricing across the life cycle emissions from oil sands and on the equilibrium incidence of carbon prices on producers. We show an important interaction between resource royalties and carbon charges that implies that the impact carbon pricing depends on not only the stringency and coverage of the carbon price but also its point of application of a carbon price. Finally, we explore the potential for technological change to mitigate the impacts of carbon pricing on oil sands investment viability.