农户借贷行为及其福利效果分析

本文研究分析了农户借贷行为及其对收入和福利状况的影响。研究发现 :受教育年限、土地规模、非农收入、所在村庄的发展水平和同一村庄其他竞争农户的特征对特定农户的借款数额都具有显著的影响 ;此外 ,农产品的价格对农户借款数额也具有显著的影响 ,产粮区的农户获取借款的难度明显比其它地区的农户大得多 ;借款对农户纯收入和福利状况在统计上有很显著的影响。     

Is life more risky in the open? Household risk-coping and the opening of China's labor markets

This paper uses a unique panel of data from rural China to analyze the impact of expanding connections to off-farm labor markets on the income and consumption of farm households. With stronger village ties to both migrant and local off-farm labor markets, households in previously autarkic village communities experience reduced exposure to shocks affecting agricultural production. The analyses presented in this paper control for the persistent effect of past shocks influencing income and consumption, household attrition potentially correlated with shocks, and endogeneity of household demographic composition, land holdings and village network connections to migrant and local labor markets.     

Fire use and prevention by traditional households in the Brazilian Amazon

Fire is an important land management tool for smallholders in the Brazilian Amazon. However, when fires are not properly controlled they can give rise to large-scale wildfires that threaten forests, agricultural plantations, and settlement areas. We use data from a survey of 220 households to examine fire prevention and the scale of fire prevention and burning activities among traditional subsistence households in the Tapajós National Forest in Pará, Brazil. We find that in traditional households, economic variables such as the opportunity cost of household time, market conditions, and the hiring wage are important predictors of these decisions, as is household reliance on standing forest resources for non-timber products. Our results confirm that traditional households actively engage in fire prevention, and suggest that fire prevention is motivated by a desire to protect agricultural plantations as well as standing forest reserves. The results suggest that increased income, improved infrastructure, and improved access to markets for labor and agricultural goods will encourage fire prevention among smallholders in communities with education and planning programs.     

Does poverty constrain deforestation? Econometric evidence from Peru

This paper examines the relationship between income and land clearing for households living in tropical forest regions. A simple model of the agricultural household that clears land for agriculture is developed to investigate the relationship between lagged income and cleared land holdings. Analysis of panel data from Peru suggests that lagged income is positively correlated with clearing, though at a decreasing rate, and, because of labor market constraints, clearing is positively correlated with household labor availability. This work suggests that small increases in the incomes of the poorest are unlikely to reduce deforestation in this context.     

Effects of the Chinese arable land fallow system and land-use change on agricultural production and on the economy

This study focuses on economic effects of arable land fallow system and land-use change in China using a dynamic single-country, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model. Land supply is adjusted endogenously in our model. Land use in each of 31 provinces is tracked by a land-use change module, which is calibrated with satellite data. Our results reveal that the expansion of real output can be attributed to the increase in capital stock as a result of the growth of investment due to the imposition of the arable land fallow system in China. And the growth of investment is caused by the release of labor from agriculture The reduced supply of arable land in agricultural land contraction regions is partially offset by the increasing arable land in agricultural land expansion regions. Rural households benefit more than urban households from the arable land fallow policy due to relatively higher income and lower rural CPI.     

The economic importance of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) for livelihood maintenance of rural west African communities: A case study from northern Benin

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) contribute significantly to a rural household's livelihood in the African semi-arid tropics. This study examines the income from NTFPs and the dependency on these of different socio-economic groups in Northern Benin. Using survey data from 230 households of two villages, we firstly compared incomes of five different ethnic groups being differentiated by their traditional source of livelihood and regional provenance. Secondly, we investigated disparities between three income groups. On average, income from NTFPs accounted for 39% of total household income and had a strong equalizing effect on it. However, the economic relevance of NTFPs differs between households: Poorer households are relatively more dependent on NTFPs in order to fulfill basic needs than wealthier households. However, the latter extract more NTFPs in quantitative terms and have significantly higher cash returns than poorer ones. This is mainly due to a significant greater land holding. Moreover, our study revealed that net income from NTFPs reflects traditional sources of livelihoods of different ethnic groups. In conclusion, both conservation and development strategies should take into consideration the socio-economic context of different beneficiaries of savanna woodland resources in order to apply appropriate measures to poverty reduction.     

Public policy and rural poverty : A system dynamics analysis of a social change effort in Pakistan

This paper attempts to explain why public policies that were expected to alleviate rural poverty in Pakistan have not worked. The analysis is based on a system dynamics model that incorporates the income distribution processes of a typical developing country agrarian economy consisting of a capitalist and self-employed sector. Only the economic factors arising out of the rational decisions of the two sectors regarding production and disbursement of income have been taken into account. These factors are considered adequate for explaining the persistence of rural poverty, although the role of social and political factors is acknowledged.The study suggests that the absence of an economic force that should encourage land ownership by its cultivators is a key factor responsible for the poor economic condition of the working rural household that form the majority of the rural population. Land is easily separated from cultivators and is concentrated among the few capitalist households. This concentration significantly reduces income in self-employment and thus leaves the cultivators with very little bargaining power for negotiating compensation for thier labor. Thus development policies striving to increase productivity may only serve to increase the claim to income of the few capitalist households, leaving incomes of the majority of the households unchanged while also assuring continuation of low worker compensation.The study indicates that a development policy for alleviating poverty should simultaneously incorporate fiscal instruments to encourage transfer of land ownership to its cultivators and measures that help increase the productivity of land.     

Converting Forests to Farms: The Economic Benefits of Clearing Forests in Agricultural Settlements in the Amazon

Agricultural expansion into tropical forests is believed to bring local economic benefits at the expense of global environmental costs. The resulting tension is reflected in Brazilian government policy. The national agrarian reform program has settled farm families in the Amazon region since the 1970s, with the expectation that they will clear forests in order to farm the land. On the other hand, recent Brazilian policy initiatives seek to reduce deforestation to mitigate climate change. We contribute to the policy debate that surrounds these dual goals for the Amazon by estimating the marginal effects of new agricultural land on the full income and assets of farm settlers over a 13-year period from 1996 to 2009. Using micro panel data from agrarian settlements where forest was being rapidly cleared, and controlling for factors that would otherwise confound the relationship, we estimate the effect of converting forest to agriculture on total household income to estimate the opportunity cost of conserving forest. Our measure of income reflects any re-allocation of resources by utility maximizing households and any productivity effects due to loss of forest ecosystem services. The estimated effect of new agricultural land on income is positive, but small relative to the income per hectare of previously cleared land. However, we show that income increases investment in physical assets, which raises households’ income generating capacity and future accumulation of assets. Thus, while there is only a small immediate income gain from clearing more forest, the long-term effects on wealth are still substantial. This demonstrates that given the right conditions, conversion of forest to agricultural land can be an impetus for asset accumulation by smallholders. It also highlights the importance of considering the indirect and long-term welfare benefits of new agricultural land when assessing the opportunity costs of forest conservation.     

Household Debt and Financial Constraints in Australia

Over the past decade, household debt (as a share of household income) has reached historically high levels. This has raised concerns about whether, as a result of the rise in debt, households are now more financially ‘fragile'. Using household survey data, a logit model is constructed to examine the relationship between the probability of being financially constrained and the economic and demographic characteristics of households in Australia. We find that the probability of a household being constrained is significantly affected by demographic and economic variables such as age, home ownership, weekly household income, and the share of income going to repayments on mortgage debt. Comparing survey results across time, it appears that the overall proportion of households that are financially constrained has fallen or, at worst, remained unchanged between 1994 and 2001. Much of the rise in debt appears to have been due to unconstrained households taking on more debt. As such, the rise in the aggregate debt to income ratio associated with owner‐occupier mortgages appears to be the result of voluntary household choice and not to be associated with an increase in household financial distress.     

Land transfer in rural China: incentives,influencing factors and income effects

ABSTRACT

Land transfer incentives and their effect on farmers’ income in developing countries have been widely examined in the literate, but little is known about the driving mechanism of rural household income effect during land transfer. To fill in this gap, this paper explains the incentives of land transfer, analyses the influencing factors of farmers’ decision on land transfer, then measures the income effects of land transfer and identifies the main sources of income effects, utilizing open-access data collected through the China Family Panel Studies. The empirical results show that land flow out or in is beneficial to raise farmers’ income, indicating that the income effects have a positive feedback to farmers’ decision on land transfer. Further analyses reveal that land flow-out farmers and land flow-in farmers have different main sources of income growth. Our finding suggest that optimizing the incentive role of China’s existing rural land property system can help orderly flow of rural land resources, which subsequently increases rural household income.     

Moderate prosperity,an adaptation of the middle class concept to a Malagasy rural area: the case of Itasy

In order to adapt the controversial sociological concept of ‘Middle Class’ to an African agriculture-based economy, exemplified by Madagascar, we propose the concept of Moderate Prosperity. As a case study, we use detailed data from 508 households in the 2008 Itasy Observatory. We stratify them using four distinguishing socio-economic factors: household income quintile, head of household’s education level, income structure and land tenure. We describe four Moderate Prosperity clusters that reflect the agro-economic diversity of the Itasy region: a vulnerable group of agriculturally diversified households in the third income quintile with locally issued land title; an emerging group of skilled, polyculture farmers belonging to both the lowest and highest quintiles; a traditional group of uneducated rice farmers in the fourth quintile with traditional land ownership; and an upper group of educated livestock farmers, non-agricultural independents and workers, belonging to the top income quintile with locally issued land title.     

农地分配中的性别平等问题

本文借助于 1 996年对山西农村抽样调查数据的统计分析 ,论证我国农村土地分配中的性别平等虽然在法律上和经济制度上得到保障 ,但是这些制度在细节上的漏洞 ,使离婚妇女缺少地权保障 ,错过村社土地调整机会的婚嫁迁移妇女及其子女暂时无地。这种现象虽然还没有对妇女在家庭内部的谈判地位产生显著影响 ,却足以使她们的家庭陷入贫困。因此 ,有必要在现行土地管理法和政府有关农地承包的规定中添加性别视角。     

农户土地转出意愿影响因素分析——以浙江省农业园为例

为探寻土地流转的新模式,从农户的基本特征、农户对农业园区建设预期评价、农户土地转让的条件与顾虑三个层面分析浙江农业园建设背景下农户土地转出意愿及各影响因素的影响程度。研究发现,影响较大的因素有承包经营权调整的心理预期、农业园建成后产量及农村社会风气预期、非农收入、担心失去土地等;影响大的因素包括户主年龄、园区讲信用、担心失去来源、政策不稳定等。在此基础上,提出要保护农民的土地使用权,切实保护农民的利益,同时加大农业园建设的宣传,增加农民对农业园的认识等政策建议。     

中部地区农地流转特征及影响因素分析——基于中部六省的调查

应用分类评定模型(Logit模型)对中国中部地区的农户调查数据研究表明:地权稳定性、地区经济发展水平对农地转入和转出都有显著的正向影响;家庭年总收入、非农收入比重、外出务工劳动力比重、土地流转价格对土地转出有显著的正向影响,而对土地转入有显著的负影响;户主年龄对土地转出影响不显著、对转入有显著的正向影响;户主受教育程度对土地转入和转出的影响均不显著。研究的结果表明,要促进我国中部地区农地流转,必须继续贯彻惠农政策,大力发展农村经济,完善农地流转的相关政策法规和服务,增强地权的稳定性。     

Information and the operation of markets: tests based on a general equilibrium model of land leasing in India

This paper develops an estimable general equilibrium model of land leasing to test the extent to which information is commonly held in a village and whether village markets are efficient. Information regarding the relative farming skill of households is found to be widespread, but the assumption of perfectly efficient markets within the village is rejected. These results have ramifications for the estimation of agricultural household models and for our understanding of rural institutions. The model is derived from the primitives of the production technology, the extent of information and the distributions of assets and several household unobservables. Simultaneity and selection issues are dealt with explicitly in a two-stage maximum likelihood estimation procedure using panel data from India.     

Household Income,Demand, and Saving: Deriving Macro Data With Micro Data Concepts

We develop adjustments to align the NIPA measures of key household variables with cash flow concepts that reflect household budgets and actual demand generated by households. The adjusted variables have substantially different behaviors across time than NIPA measures of household spending and saving. Furthermore, household income aggregated from micro data sets like the CPS, SCF, and PSID differs significantly from NIPA personal income. But the micro survey data likely reflect cash flow concepts rather than NIPA definitions. Indeed the adjusted cash flow measure of income eliminates much of the gap between micro data income variables and NIPA household income.     

河北省农户采用蔬菜农艺节水集成技术意愿影响因素的实证分析——以藁城市为例

依据河北省藁城市种植设施蔬菜农户的调查资料,运用两项Logit模型,对农户采用蔬菜农艺节水集成技术意愿的影响因素进行实证研究。研究表明,蔬菜农艺节水集成技术应该重点向家庭年均总收入高、种植业收入占家庭总收入比重高、劳动力占家庭总人口比重高、户主男性、户主文化程度高的农户示范和推广;应加强引导示范户的示范、带动作用;通过各种途径强化节水宣传教育,使农户增强农业节水意识;政府应制订政策,合理提高农业水费,促进农户节水;进一步加大科研人员传播蔬菜节水技术信息的力度;政府应反思其工作方式,采用多数农民满意的扶持方式;尽量少用村干部、培训会方式宣传蔬菜节水技术信息。     

Community-based development and poverty alleviation: An evaluation of China's poor village investment program

We conduct the first systematic evaluation of the world's largest community-based development program—China's flagship poverty alleviation program began in 2001 which finances public investments in designated poor villages based on participatory village planning. We use matching methods and a panel household and village data set with national coverage to compare changes from 2001 to 2004 in designated poor villages that began plan investments and in designated poor villages that had yet to begin plan investments. We find that the program significantly increased both government- and village-financed investments. While the program did not increase the income or consumption of poorer households, it did increase the income and consumption of richer households by 6.1 to 9.2%. We also find suggestive evidence that governance matters in the distribution of program benefits. Relative gains were greater for richer households in villages with more educated leaders, and higher quality village committees delivered greater benefits to both richer and poorer households.     

An economic profile of peasant perpetrators of genocide: Micro-level evidence from Rwanda

This paper presents the results of a research project in which we have traced 350 Rwandan households who were part of a rural household survey before the Rwandan genocide (1994). Economic, demographic and agricultural data from an extensive 1989–1992 survey can be linked with the condition of the household at the time of the Genocide Transition Survey (2000). This allows us to study the fate of the household members during the genocide. Our results show that age, sex, the sex of the head of the household, the size of rented land, off-farm income, gross household income and farm-level anti-erosion investment significantly determine the probability of a household member to become a perpetrator of genocide. These results are interpreted in the political economy of Rwanda.     

1989-2004年城乡家庭收入差异:一个多层固定效果模型分析

利用1989-2004年"中国健康与营养调查"数据,运用固定效果模型和多层生长曲线模型,分析了城乡家庭人均年收入的趋势、现状和特点,探讨了城乡家庭收入差异产生的原因。虽然在这16年间,城、乡家庭人均收入都有了很大的提高,但二者之间的差距在不断上升;在其他条件相同的情况下,城市家庭的人均收入明显超过郊区、集镇和乡村家庭的人均收入;家庭人均收入受地域、社区和家庭等多层次因素的制约。解决城乡之间家庭收入差距的出路包括积极扩大非农就业,加快城镇化步伐,改善社区的就业条件,加大农村地区的教育回报率。