关于地球对人口的承载能力之讨论--"一个合理的人口数量"和"一种合理的生活水平"

一、世界人口在向极限冲刺有关世界人口数量历史资料 :10万年前 32 0万 ;公元初 3亿 ;16 5 0年 5 .4 5亿 ;1890年 16 .5亿 ;195 0年2 5亿 ;1987年 5 0亿 ;目前为 6 0亿 ;预测 2 0 2 5年约 90亿。如果不加以控制 ,90 0年后将达到 6亿亿。届时地球每平方米面积上须容纳 10 0人 ,地球之大 ,将无立锥之地。人类从来没有像今天这样对自身的数量和其增长的速度感到如此恐慌 ,也从来没有像今天这样意识到 :对人类最大的威胁和挑战竟然来自人类自己。人口的爆炸引起并将进一步加剧人类基本生存问题的恶化 ,在现代物质文明高歌挺进的同时 ,饥饿与死亡…     

他山之石 可以攻玉——赴浙江省学习考察的情况介绍

20 0 0年 1 1月 3日至 1 2日 ,由省委书记田成平带领的山西省党政代表团赴浙江学习考察。代表团认为浙江经验很好 ,对我省很有借鉴意义。改革开放以来 ,浙江省的经济社会发展很快。从1 978— 1 999年 ,全省 GDP由 1 2 4亿元增长到 5 3 6 4亿元 ,年均增长 1 3 .3 % ,位次由全国的第 1 2位上升到第 4位 ;人均 GDP由第 1 6位上升到第 4位 ;外贸出口由 5 0 0 0万美元增长到 1 2 8.7亿美元 ,年均增长3 0 .6 % ,居全国第 4位 ;财政总收入由 2 7亿元上升到 477亿元 ,年均增长 1 4.6 % ,居全国第 5位。为了增加农业收入 ,浙江省委、省政府适时制…     

我国房地产市场潜力巨大与有效需求不足

1.居民收入的提高与城市化的步伐促成了房地产业强势的需求空间。中国房地产业的巨大需求主要来源于以下三个方面:(1)现有城镇居民住房面积需求增长。党的十六大对住宅建设提出了新的要求:到2010年达到户均一套房,人均一室,若人均住宅建筑面积达到30平方米,10年共需要新建住宅41.3亿平方米,而且这个标准还只大致是发达国家20世纪90年代初的水平。(2)稳定的人口自然增长率和城市化步伐的加速,保证和带动了房地产的需求。根据《中国21世纪人口与发展》计划目标,到2005年中国人口控制在13.3亿内(不含我国港、澳、台地区),每年的平均自然增长率为9‰,2010年中国的人口控制在14亿。2002年我国的城市化率达到37%,假定2020年达到50%,达到中等发     

小资料

据新疆 2 0 0 1年国民经济和社会发展统计公报提供 :初步统计 2 0 0 1年新疆实现国内生产总值 1 485亿元 ,比上年增长 8.1 %。其中第一产业增加值 2 87亿元 ,增长 2 .8% ;第二产业增加值 6 4 0亿元 ,增长9.2 % ;第三产业增加值 5 5 8亿元 ,增长 1 0 .0 %。在国内生产总值中 ,第一、二、三产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重分别为 1 9.3 %、43 .1 %和 3 7.6 %。据初步统计 2 0 0 1年新疆农林牧渔业总产值 494.75亿元 ,比上年增长 4.5 %。工业增加值 45 0亿元 ,比上年增长 8.0 %。社会固定资产投资 70 1 .82亿元 ,比上年增长 1 5 .0 %。社会消费…     

中国改革二十多年来的经济发展与贫困缩减

一、引　言邓小平在 1 978年提出农业改革时 ,中国农村人口中有超过 3 / 4的人生活在贫困中 ①。中国改革重要的政策目标之一是提高人民的生活水平。到 2 0世纪末 ,中国基本上没有人再受饥饿和营养不良的折磨。在过去的 2 0多年来 ,中国的国内生产总值 (ＧＤＰ)增加了 4倍。实际人均可支配收入在城市增加超过 3倍 ,农村增加将近 4倍 ②。按照官方统计数据 ,1 978年到 1 995年间 ,生活在贫困中的人口减少了逾 2亿。到 1 995年 ,以 1 990年的价格计算 ,大约还有 70 0 0万人达不到官方贫困线 3 1 8元的人均年收入③ 。用参数法和非参数法对农村…     

其他国家或地区化肥市场发展经验与启示

一、世界化肥市场发展情况(一)人口增长与农业用肥需求。①在20世纪以前,人口增长速度比较缓慢,没有给农业生产带来太多压力,由人口增长而产生的食物需求可以通过扩大耕地面积轻易满足;而进入20世纪以后,人口增长开始急剧加速,从1900年到2000年,世界人口由15亿人膨胀到60亿人;而且这种势头将继续发展下去,据预测,到2050年,世界人口将达到100亿人。与此同时,世界耕地扩张却不能如此顺利,世界可耕地面积为29·5亿公顷,其中最好的50%,即最肥沃、通达性最好、最容易开垦的耕地已被耕种,面积约为15·4亿公顷;而剩余的50%虽有开垦潜力,但其土壤肥…     

中国国际收支赢余与积极财政政策的数量限制——一个基于收入-支出模型的分析

本文运用收入 -支出模型 ,结合中国实际情况 ,从数量限制的角度对中国实施积极财政政策进行了理论和实证考察。文章发现 :为了收入和就业的增加 ,在国际收支赢余的情况下 ,保守的看 ,如果GDP以年均 8%的增长率和出口以 6%的增长率增长 ,那么中国积极财政政策至少可以持续到 2 0 0 6年。从 2 0 0 2年到 2 0 0 6年的财政赤字估算规模可以分别为 :42 60 .3亿元 (2 0 0 2年 )、460 1.1亿元 (2 0 0 3年 )、4969.2亿元 (2 0 0 4年 )、5 3 66.8亿元 (2 0 0 5年 )、5 796.1亿元 (2 0 0 6年 )。     

开发具有自主知识产权软件,提升公司核心竞争力

一、面临新的竞争环境1 .石油作为战略资源的地位不可动摇。目前世界能源消费仍以石油和天然气为主导 ,约占 63 %。在可以预见的将来 ,这一比例不会有太大的变化。中国经济的快速发展 ,对石油的需求量也在快速增长。来自官方的统计测算表明 ,中国国内生产总值每增长 1个百分点 ,石油消费就增加 0 .59%。据悉 ,目前中国原油进口已经不是小数目 ,仅 2 0 0 1年一年 ,进口原油超过 70 0 0万吨。据专家分析 ,受后备储量限制 ,2 0 1 0年后中国的石油产量可能出现大幅度衰减。到 2 0 1 0年和 2 0 1 5年 ,中国石油年需求量可能达到 3 .6亿至 4 .3吨 …     

中国老龄化高峰期对养老设施和医疗设施的需求——以上海市为例

伴随着中国人口老化程度的加深,对养老设施、医疗设施的需求急剧增加。该文以中国人口老化最严重的城市上海为例,讨论未来中国老龄化社会对养老和医疗设施的实际需求。以上海人口规模预测中方案为基准,根据上海2045年10%老年人口到机构养老的政府目标,测算,上海养老机构床位数需要在2010-2020年每年要增长1.2万张、2020-2030年均增长2.7万张,2030-2040年均增长3.6万张。同时,上海现有养老机构工作人员数量与实际需求亦相距甚远。保守估算,到2030年,上海需要的养老护理人员将超过20万人。上海老龄化程度居全国首位,并且呈现加速加深趋势,因此2010、2020及2030年养老机构所需要的资金投入预计分别为5亿元、8亿元和11亿元,2010年上海需要医生7万人以上,2020年约9万人左右,而到2030、2040年则医生需求增长到10万、11万人以上。     

电力短缺、短期措施与长期战略

1 999年中国电力过剩 1 0 % ,而 2 0 0 4年估计将短缺 7%。电力规划应该根据GDP与电力需求间的长期关系制定 ,以避免大量过剩或短缺 ,并尽可能减少冲击。本文建议建立有效的电力短缺早期预警系统 ,制定全国的系统规划。规划要着眼于电力需求与GDP增长间的长期关系 ,并考虑“电力先行”的增长战略     

Scenario of China Reaching Carbon Peaking ahead of Schedule and Its Effect on Macro Economy

At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 2020, China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad. Therefore, it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect. This paper, based on Energy, Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (TECGE), a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China’s future macro economy. By setting up four scenarios, namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons, 10.7 billion tons, 10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030, 2027, 2025, and 2023, it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy. The findings show that, compared with the 2030 benchmark, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the higher the carbon tax prices, and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables, such as aggregate consumption, aggregate imports and exports decline, the share of the tertiary industry increases. That is, the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved, the more macroeconomic variables decline, and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises. This paper, using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect, makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development.     

World population growth and the role of annual energy use per capita

In the context of ongoing world population growth, no permanent growth in materials consumption can be sustained into the future. A sustainable future requires that the world's population stabilize. The author considers the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region, and the consequences of such a connection if the world's population is to stabilize. Energy is used as a factor because it is a proactive agent in facilitating increases in the standard of living and changes in the social conditions thought to influence the fertility rate. Historical trends and near-term projections for energy use and population growth rate are used to indicate a possible future path for developing regions. Improvements in the efficiency of energy use and modest cultural changes are used in an example projection of coupled energy use and population growth. For each decade, the incremental increase in annual commercial energy use per capita and a corresponding decrease in population growth rate are chosen to continue the historical trends for developing regions of the world. This approach results in population changes which closely follow the projections of the World Bank for the period up to 2150. World energy use is projected to increase from about 9000 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) today to 15,000-21,000 Mtoe/a by the time the world's population has risen from 6 billion to about 12 billion in the 22nd century. The energy demands of each developing region are compared with potential, indigenous energy sources to determine whether each developing region may be able to cope with its increased energy demand without massive energy imports. The availability of readily moveable, cheap fuels will help the developing world make the transition to a more stable population with a decent standard of living.     

Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030

This paper analyses the forces determining per capita income levels of nations over the past millennium and the prospects to 2030. In the year 1000, Asian countries were in the lead. By 1820, per capita gross domestic product in Western Europe and the USA was twice the Asian average. The divergence had grown much bigger by 1950, but by the 1970s, several Asian countries – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore – had achieved considerable catch-up. Since then, there has been a major surge in China and the beginning of a similar phenomenon in India. As a result, the Asian share of world income has risen steadily and, by 2030, will be fairly close to what it was in 1820. I conclude by comparing my projections for 2030 with those of Goldman Sachs, Perkins and Rawski, and Fogel.     

我国未来人口发展与碳排放变动的模拟分析

构建人口-消费-碳排放系统动力学模型,对本世纪上半叶我国人口发展、经济增长、居民消费及碳排放进行动态仿真,定量考察未来我国人口发展与居民消费对碳排放的影响。在基准情景下,我国人口总数将于2032年达到峰值14.6亿人;一次能源消费总量将于2044年左右达到峰值63.6亿吨标准煤,碳排放总量将于2038年左右达到峰值约31.3亿吨碳;2050年我国人均碳排放量约为2.2吨碳,低于日本、欧洲1980年代以来的最低水平;居民消费碳排放的人均需求约为1.3吨碳,相当于美国居民1990年代后期排放水平的五分之一。从满足人口发展与居民基本生活需求的角度争取合理的碳排放空间,是我国争取国际气候谈判话语权的有力支撑点。     

Chinese economy in the new era

The “new era”, a term introduced by President Xi Jinping, may also be identified as the Xi era, during which China will be transformed from a moderately well‐off to a strong and wealthy nation. In the new era, the Chinese Government will deepen economic reform, widen economic opening and enhance the quality of economic growth. / Our projections show that by 2020, Chinese real GDP per capita, in 2017 prices, will exceed US$10,000, an economic development milestone. By 2031, Chinese real GDP will surpass US real GDP (US$29.4 trillion vs US$29.3 trillion), making China the largest economy in the world. However, Chinese real GDP per capita will still lag behind the US significantly, amounting to only one‐quarter of that of the United States. By 2050, Chinese real GDP will reach US$82.6 trillion, compared to US$51.4 trillion for the United States. However, in terms of real GDP per capita, China will still lag significantly behind, at US$53,000, slightly less than the current level of US real GDP per capita, compared to US$134,000 for the United States.     

中国农业现代化的一个途径： 基于人-地关系的现代小农经济模式

渐趋完成的人口转变与快速工业化、城市化进程两大趋势的结合为缓解近代以来一直制约中国农业发展的人地关系紧张局面提供了可能，从而使得中国劳均耕地（播种）面积有可能摆脱长期以来的下降趋势。通过对2006-2030年间中国人口转变和快速工业化、城市化影响下的农业劳动人口进行分析和预测，并结合耕地面积和播种面积的变化趋势，预测在2020年左右，中国劳均播种面积将大于11亩，而到2030年将进一步上升到145亩。因此，有理由认为在兼业化的农业产业结构下，这些条件已经可以确保在农业劳动力处于充分就业状态并获得相对高的农业收入的情况下，形成中国现代小农经济模式。     

How COVID-19 Medical Supply Shortages Led to Extraordinary Trade and Industrial Policy

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, a global shortage of hospital gowns, gloves, surgical masks, and respirators caused policymakers globally to panic. China increased imports and decreased exports of this personal protective equipment, removing supplies from world markets. Shortages led to European Union and US export controls as well as other extraordinary policy actions, including a US effort to reserve supplies manufactured in China by a US-headquartered multinational. By April 2020, China's exports had mostly resumed, and over the rest of the year its export volumes surged. But China's export prices also skyrocketed and remained elevated through 2020, reflecting severe and continued shortages. This paper explores these and other government actions, such as US trade war tariffs and US industrial policy in the form of over $1 billion of subsidies to build out its domestic personal protective equipment supply chain, as well as potential lessons for future pandemic preparedness and international policy cooperation.     

Can China’s meat imports be sustainable? A case study of mad cow disease

Rising demand and constrained domestic production have challenged the meat consumption in China. To fill the gap between domestic demand and supply, China imports an increasing volume of meat products from the international market. However, outbreaks of animal diseases can jeopardize China’s ability to meet its need for consumable meat. This article investigates the impact of animal disease outbreaks on the sustainability of China’s meat imports by using the episode of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the United States in 2003 as a case study. Our results show that China’s meat imports are becoming more diversified and sustainable. The outbreak did have significant negative impacts on beef imports from the United States. During the epidemic, not only was China able to increase beef imports from other major exporters, but it also increased imports of other animal products such as edible offal and pork. Our findings indicate that international trade can serve as a reliable source to meet China’s soaring meat consumption.     

Can China Feed its People into the Next Millennium? Projections for China's grain supply and demand to 2010

Econometric models of grain supply and demand which incorporate the effects of policy interventions and institutional changes are used as the basis for projecting grain balances in China to 2010. The paper outlines key assumptions about future changes in grain policies and other important explanatory variables in the models. On the supply side, projections are made for grain sown area, grain yield and total grain output. Future grain demand is disaggregated into four categories, human food, animal feed, industrial uses and seed grain, each incorporating high, medium and low demand growth scenarios. A grain balance sheet is constructed for 2010 which shows a ‘most probable’ import requirement of about 32 million tones—a 10 million tones increase over the actual 1995 level. Thus, net grain imports will increase substantially but China is unlikely to become an importer on a massive scale.     

中国提前碳达峰情景及其宏观经济影响

第75届联合国大会上中国提出了2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的目标,引领了全球应对气候变化的进程,引起了国内外的广泛关注和热评。因此,对强化的提前碳达峰目标的实现路径及其宏观经济影响研究,具有重要的现实意义和学术价值。本文采用动态可计算一般均衡模型TECGE定量分析了强化碳达峰承诺对我国未来宏观经济的影响。设定了四个情景包括2030、2027、2025和2023年碳达峰,峰值分别为108亿吨、107亿吨、105.8亿吨和103.6亿吨,考察提前碳达峰情景与2030年碳达峰情景相比对宏观经济的影响。研究表明,提前碳达峰情景相比2030年基准情景,越早碳达峰,要求碳税价格越高,GDP和其他宏观经济变量如总消费、总进出口等都有所下降,但是第三产业占比有所上升。越早碳达峰,宏观经济变量下降越多,第三产业占比上升得越多。根据CGE模型对宏观经济影响的定量分析,本文为提前实现碳达峰目标、推进经济高质量发展提出了相关的政策建议。