资源型城市经济转型与中心城市功能整合分析——以太原市为例

作为资源型重工业城市和省级行政中心城市,太原市区域中心城市的地位未得到充分凸显.而资源型产业制度的路径依赖又大大限制了太原市现代化城市功能的发展和区域经济中心作用的发挥.目前,山西省已经成为全国资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区,太原市作为区域中心城市的地位日益显得重要,其传统资源型主导产业的地位将可能被富有创新性和特色鲜明的产业集群所替代,而新兴起的催生产业集群成长的试验区、开发区、创新区,将重新整合和提升太原市城市的核心功能,使太原市真正能够发挥区域中心城市的功能和作用.     

太原市工业经济绿色转型研究

山西是我国主要能源重化工基地.作为资源型省会城市,太原是全省经济中心,主要经济结构是以能源、原材料为主导的重工业结构,冶金、煤炭、机械、化工、电力是全市支柱产业,传统典型的资源性和粗放型的经济增长模式,带来了严重的环境污染和产业风险,阻碍了经济可持续发展.近年来,针对传统发展模式的弊端,太原市以科学发展观为指导,提出了绿色转型战略,努力探索经济与生态协调发展的新路径.文章将探讨对近年来太原市工业经济绿色转型之路,以求推动我国煤炭资源型城市转型发展.     

太原大都市区城市化特征,问题与对策

大都市区的形成与发展是现代城市化进程的一个重要特征。近年来,有关我国沿海发达地区大都市区的实证研究成果较多。本以内陆资源型省区中心城市太原市为案例,通过与发达地区都市区发展的比较来揭示其发育特征。结果表明：太原大都市区发育尚处于初期阶段,无论人口、经济集聚水平还是城市化进程与我国发达地区同类城市都市区相比仍有较大差距。其滞后的原因在于中心城市产业结构转换滞缓,扩散力弱;城市资本集聚有效发挥等方面     

我国城市发展会议产业的实证分析——以太原市为例

太原市作为山西省的省会城市,具有深厚历史文化底蕴的城市旅游资源,良好的区位条件,因而,太原也应开始积极争取举办大型会议,积极开拓会议市场,从而带动整个太原市经济的发展。文章通过对太原市发展会议产业的优势和不足之处的分析,提出了太原如何发展会议产业的措施和方法,希望对太原市发展会议产业起到一定的借鉴作用。     

我国城市发展会议产业的实证分析——以太原市为例

太原市作为山西省的省会城市,具有深厚历史文化底蕴的城市旅游资源,良好的区位条件,因而,太原也应开始积极争取举办大型会议,积极开拓会议市场,从而带动整个太原市经济的发展。文章通过对太原市发展会议产业的优势和不足之处的分析,提出了太原如何发展会议产业的措施和方法。     

产品内分工与资源型地区的产业转型战略

对以产品内分工为主要特征的新的产业分工格局的形成和发展进行分析;从工业化初期的产业分工特征中认识资源型地区问题的形成,从产业分工关系的变化中把握产业转型的过程特征,进而分析新的产品内分工对资源型地区产业转型过程特征的影响;以此为基础,在产品内分工主导的区域经济关系调整中对产业转型的战略设计进行了新的思考.     

资源型区域经济可持续发展的途径:特色产业集群的升级与转型

从资源型区域经济可持续发展、资源型产业持续发展两个角度解释了资源型区域特色产业集群升级与转型的必要性。重点分析资源型区域特色产业集群升级与转型的形式、集群升级的途径。提出资源型产业集群可持续发展实际上就是资源型产业集群竞争力不断提升的过程,即在资源察赋和生态环境的刚性约束下,资源型产业集群以自组织和创新为驱动力,有效实施升级与转型。根据资源型产业的特点构建了本产业的竞争力指标体系,并对我国资源型区域经济的持续发展提出政策建议。     

资源型区域高新产业特色选择研究——以太原高新区产业发展为例

考虑高新区和高新技术产业与传统资源型区域发展的对接,指出资源型区域高新产业应从地方优势产业、自主创新项目、产品市场潜力和地方关联效应4个方面来界定特色发展,并从区域、产业、技术和产品4个层次提出了特色选择的原则与技术路线。以太原高新区为例,对资源型区域高新区特色产业的选择进行了实证研究。     

关于太原市城市发展定位的思考

太原是山西省省会,也是我国的能源重化工中心城市和华北地区重要的中心城市之一。如何在加快城市化发展的大环境下,把握机遇全面推进太原市的城市化进程,加速社会经济的全面发展,尽量缩小与发达地区的差距是摆在我们面前的急待解决的一项任务。分析太原市社会经济发展趋势和现实,从战略定位和战略规划两个方面探讨太原市城市的发展战略。太原市城市的发展战略定位必须着眼于区域经济发展而不是个别城市的发展,战略规划必须注重城市的协调、可持续发展。     

资源型区域率先转型发展的策略研究

资源型区域是一种因资源而兴,又因资源枯竭而陷入发展危机的区域。文章从对资源型区域率先转型发展的定义研究开始,对资源型区域率先转型发展的有利条件了进行分析。同时提出可以通过加强人才建设、利用外部援助、加大政府的推动作用、发展绿色产业、净化人居环境等途径,来进一步促进对资源型区域率先转型发展的成功。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。