经济增长与中拉贸易合作

近年来,中国和拉美地区的贸易额迅速增长.本文介绍了中拉贸易现状及贸易基础,重点对经济增长和中拉贸易合作之间的关系进行了分析.     

中国和拉美国家经贸发展的机遇和瓶颈

近年来,中拉经贸合作快速发展。2007年中拉贸易总额历史性地突破1000亿美元,是10年前的10多倍。中拉电信、基础设施建设、能矿、科技等领域投资合作不断取得新进展。但是,在中拉贸易迅速增长过程中,中国进出口产品结构存在明显的地区和行业差异,我国出口增长的势头引起了中南美一些企业的担忧,从而促使其政府对我出口产品采取以反倾销为主的多种贸易救济措施,中拉贸易摩擦问题日益凸显,已经成为双方贸易发展的瓶颈制约。加强沟通,消除贸易摩擦,实现中拉贸易双赢的局面是目前双方急需解决的问题。     

德国技术密集型商品贸易状况

上世纪90年代，技术密集型商品的国际贸易急剧增长。在世界经合组织(OECD)工业国家的进出口贸易中，技术密集型商品占54％，其中接近1／3(进ISI的32％，出ISI的31％)是尖端技术商品。1991至2001年期间，OECD国家尖端技术商品的进出ISI贸易平均增长7．5％和8％，高价值技术商品的进出ISI贸易平均增长6．5％，非技术密集型商品的进出ISI贸易平均增长4％和3．5％。     

“一带一路”倡议、“五通”质量与沿线国家贸易包容性增长——基于动态面板数据的GMM检验

本文基于2003—2017年间包括中国在内的63个“一带一路”沿线国家间贸易数据，对“一带一路”沿线国家出口额、进口额、进出口总额的包容性增长状况进行了描述性分析，并从“五通”视角构建动态面板GMM模型对贸易包容性增长的影响因素进行了检验。研究发现：“一带一路”沿线国家间贸易差距逐渐缩小，其增长具有包容性；“一带一路”沿线国家出口额、进口额和进出口总额均存在绝对收敛、条件收敛和俱乐部收敛效应，呈现包容性增长态势；“五通”质量对贸易包容性增长存在重要影响，倡议发展成果惠及沿线各国，强力推动了各国贸易的包容性增长。研究成果为“一带一路”倡议的普惠性提供了经验支持，也为中国优化与“一带一路”沿线各国贸易关系、提升贸易效率提供了决策依据。     

论中日贸易的快速增长及结构性变化

从2000年起，中日贸易进入了一个快速发展的阶段，其原因主要是中国国民经济和国内相关产品需求的快速增长等积极因素的作用。伴随着中日贸易的增长，贸易结构也发生着变化，机械设备等工业产品的进出口成为中日贸易的主流。外交上的不稳定成为中日贸易继续快速发展的最大潜在障碍。     

中俄贸易增长探析与前景预测

对于中俄贸易能否持续快速增长，国内学者众说纷纭。通过理论分析，梳理中俄贸易的历史数据，可建立中俄贸易增长的回归模型，找出影响中俄贸易增长的主要因素。进而可得出如下结论：基于两国要素禀赋的互补基础，基于两国过去贸易的经验实证，基于两国持续经济增长的前景，中国和俄罗斯的贸易必将持续增长，并将在不久的将来呈加速度增长。     

中国如何从贸易大国走向贸易强国

经济危机以来，中国的以外贸带动经济增长模式受到了质疑，多数观点认为这种模式应该伴随着美国的消费增长模式一起走到尽头。实际上，各国的比较优势和竞争优势没有发生改变，中国应该继续走贸易强国之路。文章分析了中国从贸易大国走向贸易强国的必要性和可行性，并且提出了制定贸易强国对策的原则和具体对策。     

贸易结构、技术密度与经济增长——一个分析框架及基于中国数据的检验

以往的国际贸易理论都强调，贸易结构在促进经济增长方面起着重要作用。本文通过VAR模型估计了中国的贸易结构与经济增长的关系，结果显示，中国的贸易结构并不显著影响经济增长。     

外商投资企业进出口贸易与中国经济增长的实证分析

Schmitz和Helmberger认为由于发达国家和发展中国家各自的比较优势不同，当资本、技术等方面占有比较优势的发达国家在劳动力等资源丰富的发展中国家投资时，就会形成垂直型的国际分工，而作为FDI载体的外商投资企业就会形成大量的进出口贸易，东道国和投资国都会从该贸易中获益。而国内的实证研究也证明了FDI能够促进贸易增长，而贸易是FDI促进东道国经济增长的一个重要途径。曹伟（2005）通过实证研究FDI对中国经济的影响路径后表明，FDI主要是通过影响对外贸易有力地促进了中国经济增长。     

我国面临的贸易与环境问题及思考

环境与贸易一直有着密切的联系，两者是可以相互促进的，在保护环境过程中可以发展贸易，在贸易发展中可以促进环境保护。但在一定条件下，贸易与环境也是矛盾的。一方面，环境保护对贸易发展提出了新的要求，环境法规限制了许多产品的国际贸易；另一方面，如果不以可持续发展为基础。盲目增长的对外经济贸易也会对生态环境产生很大的消极影响。     

Business cycle convergence and trade: Brazil and China in a changing world

The recent economic interaction between Latin America and Asia, particularly between Brazil and China, has attracted the attention of the academic world that seeks to understand the effects of this approach in terms of business cycle convergence, economic structure and development trajectory. This paper contributes to this debate, presenting new evidence about the type and quality of this relationship. Our results reveal that Brazil and China present different patterns of relationship between trade and productive specialization: while Brazil has an intra-industry trade pattern, China has an inter-industry trade pattern. We explore some normative implications and future research possibilities.     

基于贸易收支数据的美国贸易逆差与美元汇率相互关系研究

通过选择美国与中国、日本、加拿大、英国和欧元区11国等美国主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易数据作为样本,研究美国的双边贸易逆差与美元汇率之间的关系.实证分析表明,美国对主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易收支与美元汇率没有实质性联系.美国逼迫其它货币升值没有也不能缓解美国的贸易逆差问题,同样,美国逼迫人民币升值也不能缓解美中双边贸易失衡问题.     

经济制度安排、国际贸易与经济增长影响机理的经验研究

本文分析了经济制度安排和贸易流量之间的相互关系及其对该国经济增长以及影响经济增长的其他因素的影响。在九个经济制度安排变量中对一国贸易流量影响作用最大的经济制度安排变量是该国的贸易政策,对一国高技术产品出口影响最大的经济制度安排变量是该国的产权保护程度。从对影响经济增长的渠道分析发现,在所有的经济制度安排变量中,一国产权的保护程度对该国经济增长的影响作用最大;同时产权保护的程度和政府干预对技术进步和人力资本的影响最为显著。     

Skill Intensity in Foreign Trade and Economic Growth

This paper explores the link between trade structure, trade specialization and per capita income growth. It is argued that industrial upgrading in export specialization patterns has a positive long-run growth effect, while the effect of structural change in industrial import patterns is in principle ambiguous. A standard empirical growth model is augmented by various measures of structural change. The hypothesis that not trade per se matters, but that various types of trading activities impact differently on economic growth is tested on a sample of 45 countries (OECD members and selected Asian and Latin American countries) over the period 1981–1997. The data set comprises exports and imports for 35 manufacturing industries at the 3-digit level of the ISIC classification which are grouped according to skill intensity. The results of the dynamic panel estimation point towards a positive long-run growth effect arising from trade specialization in medium-high-skill-intensive industries. Further, important distinctions between the skill intensity of export and import patterns and their respective influence on economic development, as well as between the group of developing countries and OECD members are observed in this relationship.JEL classification: C23, F43, O19, O41, O57The author is grateful to Michael Landesmann and Robert Stehrer (wiiw), Neil Foster and Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Department of Economics, University of Vienna), Michael Peneder (Austrian Institute of Economic Research) and two referees for valuable comments. This research is based on Jubiläumsfondsprojekt Nr. 8954, financial support by Oesterreichische Nationalbank is gratefully acknowledged.     

浅析美国在华直接投资与中美贸易的关系

贸易和投资——世界经济全球化的两个主要推动力量,日益向着一体化的方向发展。随着经济全球化的日益深入,中美两国的经贸联系越发密切。美国是当今世界经济的主要引擎之一,其在华的直接投资对中关进出口贸易产生着举足轻重的影响。文章分析了美国在华直接投资与中关贸易的发展趋势及其特点,并在此基础上探讨了美国对华投资与中关贸易互相促进的关系。     

Effects of tariffs and real exchange rates on job reallocation: evidence from Latin America

Openness to international competition can lead to enhanced resource allocation in the end. While factor reallocation is essential if net benefits are to be derived from trade liberalization, the process generates costs both for transitioning workers and for employers undergoing personnel turnover. Net welfare gains depend on adjustment costs. Understanding of these issues has been hampered by data limitations. In this paper, we overcome some of these limitations by using new, harmonized measures on job creation and destruction for a number of countries in Latin America. We use these new series to investigate the impact of the removal of protectionism on net employment and gross job reallocation in Latin America. We find a robust pattern showing that reductions in tariffs and exchange rate appreciations increase the pace of job reallocation within sectors. We also find, however, some evidence of declining net employment growth as trade exposure increases. For example, we find some evidence that in the wake of tariff reductions, there is lower net employment growth.     

Environmental and economic impacts of trade barriers: The example of China–US trade friction

The new age of trade wars could simultaneously affect the worldwide distribution pattern of the economy and environmental emissions. However, previous studies have focused on economic impacts, and on trade liberalization, while little is known about the equilibrium effects of trade barriers on the environment. Using a global computable general equilibrium model and taking the recent anti-trade policies of the Trump administration as an example, this study investigates the possible socio-economic and environmental effects of trade friction. Specifically, this study explores how the implemented six rounds of China–US trade friction and its different long-term development trends affect regional economic output, GHG and air pollutant emissions. Results show that trade barriers harm both countries’ economies and such losses have a certain permanence, while non-participants can benefit indirectly. Trade friction decreases participants’ GHG emissions, modifies global GHG emission distribution patterns, and leads to improved air quality in most countries. If governments continue to impose tariffs, global GHG emissions could counterfactually decrease by up to 5%. However, the change in trade patterns is not conducive to clean energy development in the less-developed regions, including the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and emission reductions from trade friction are insufficient to avoid catastrophic climate change.     

Latin America after the global crisis: the role of export-led and tradable-led growth regimes

Is the ongoing economic slowdown in industrialized countries likely to impact Latin American growth negatively in the medium- to long-run? This paper considers various transmission channels that work through trade in goods and services, and finds econometric evidence suggesting that shrinking global imbalances may create problems for Latin America. Specifically, using panel data analysis, we find that the trade balance as a proportion of GDP is positively associated with Latin American economic growth over the period 1953–2009. We then develop a simple dynamic model to help explain our main finding through investment and saving behaviour.     

Trade liberalisation,market competition and wage inequality in China's manufacturing sector

Economic reforms of the late 1980s have contributed to rapid economic growth in China. While the overall standard of living has improved, economic growth has also resulted in an increase in income inequality. Rising income inequality can increase social tensions that can impede further economic growth. By making use of firm level panel data, this paper focuses on the impact of increased market competition and trade liberalisation on skilled–unskilled wage inequality in China's manufacturing sector. A theoretical model is used to argue that trade liberalisation and market competition can affect skilled–unskilled wage inequality. Based on this result, an econometric model is specified. The empirical analysis presented in this paper shows that increased trade liberalisation has contributed to an increase in skilled–unskilled wage inequality in China's manufacturing sector. However, increase in market competition has the opposite effect.     

我国对外贸易发展:挑战、机遇与对策

本文针对我国加入世界贸易组织后,对外贸易环境总体改善的情况下出现的严峻贸易摩擦现象,提出应深入研究我国对外贸易高速增长过程中的深层矛盾和制约因素,以及如何分析和对待国际贸易保护主义这两个相关联的问题。文章同时分析了国际贸易保护主义依然存在的原因,并得出贸易保护主义阻挡不住我国的战略机遇的判断。根据以上分析,文章最后提出了政策思考和建议。