Economy through a lens: Distortions of policy coverage in UK national newspapers

This paper shows that communication of economic news varies across newspapers in the United Kingdom. We develop new time series of economic news tonality using a unique dataset of policy influenced articles published in major UK newspapers. We show that the volume and tonality of news respond to current economic conditions. For example, the nature of news changes around events of economic uncertainty such as the global financial crisis and the post-EU referendum periods. We also provide illustrative evidence that communication differs across newspaper formats. Tabloids, as opposed to quality newspapers, tend to express news more negatively, and mostly report policy-related news during periods of economic stress. The integral importance of these results is illustrated by news reaction curves showing a strong positive relationship mostly lasting three months between consumer sentiments and news.     

韩国及印度国际化轨迹研究

纵观企业国际化的发展,每个国家都有其不同的发展历史和发展特点,在倡导中国企业“走出去”的今天,认真分析主要发展中国家的“走出去”模式,了解全球化发展的轨迹,有利于我国企业在“走出去”的过程中找到发展的机遇。同时,借鉴国外“走出去”的模式,对其进行适当的修改可以直接为我国企业所用。本文试图从20世纪60年代开始撰写,沿着时代背景的发展,一直探索21世纪初的企业到国际化发展情况。本文选择了印度、韩国两个发展中国家,力求从上述国家的全球化模式、全球化动因、政府支持及当地背景等方面探索全球国际化的轨迹。     

Generational Accounting in Portugal

The social and economic developments in European countries have put pressure on their national budgets and threaten the sustainability of public policies. The traditional fiscal indicators, specifically, the deficit and the debt, which are still used today as guiding tools, have proved to be insufficient, due to their arbitrary nature and short-term focus. In this paper, we resort to an alternative fiscal indicator, known as ‘generational accounting’, which is able to incorporate the future changes in the demographic structure of the population, and their corresponding impact on public accounts. It is also able to evaluate how current fiscal policy affects, not only, current generations, but also future generations. We apply this methodology to assess the long-term fiscal situation of Portugal, and compare the results with those obtained in 1999. In this context, we also explore additional scenarios, as well as additional indicators, in order to provide some robustness to our findings. Our results show that, if the current fiscal policy is not significantly changed, future generations will face a much heavier fiscal burden than current generations.

     

解读中国经济衰落与复兴的一个制度分析框架及启示

解读中国经济的衰落与复兴，一直是中外学者十分关注的问题。解读中国经济的衰落，只有在当时的历史事实中才能找寻到正确的答案；同样，历史也会告之我们未来。中国经济衰落与复兴的根本原因是由各个时期国内外环境基础上形成的经济发展战略一经济发展模式_经济发展路径一经济发展政策所决定的。真相就在历史与现实的表象背后，我们要善于透过现象看本质：如果我们探寻到了事物的本质，人类也就掌握了未来的钥匙。     

The Euro Area,a Stressful Monetary Union? Learning from Newspapers’ Monetary Policy Coverage

Through a textual analysis of national newspaper articles covering European central bankers’ statements and policy decisions from 1999 to 2011, I derive the concerns expressed by national media in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). I consider these concerns as a benchmark for national preferences, and thus for the preferences of national central bankers in the EMU. I also test the existence of groups of national media (i.e., national publics) according to their shared expressed concerns. The results show that in the euro zone, similar concerns are shared by different country groups, corresponding to a group of countries from Northern Europe (Belgium, Finland, and the Netherlands), Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), and the Periphery (Italy, Greece, and Ireland), but that there are two isolated countries (France and Germany), whose newspapers do not share the issues raised by the rest of the European newspapers. This approach provides further insights into the potential heterogeneity of the European central bankers inside the Governing Council of the ECB in terms of policy preferences.     

Vested Interests and the Common Man as Seen Through Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Flooding Wall Street or Main Street?

There are many angles through which a critical observer can analyze the divergent class interests in most aspects of macroeconomic management. We examine the insistence of financial authorities of all major economies on reviving economic activity through monetary — and not fiscal — policy as a particularly clear example of favoring vested interests over the interests of the common man. Nearly a century after Thorstein Veblen wrote on the subject, one can find many parallel elements to the political landscape of the times. Today, the common man is often expressed by the “99%,” and many accept that the dominant vested interest is that of global banks. Unlike in Veblen’s times, economists today have many historical experiments in economic management that they can consult. By employing logic, historical experience, and an understanding of our current global finance-led capitalism, we offer a preliminary institutionalist analysis of the mechanisms of current monetary policy that “flood” Wall Street, while leaving employment, production, and investment — Main Street — all but forgotten. We then explain how vested interests have abandoned fiscal policy and left a deflationary macroeconomic environment.     

从政策角度对我国农民收入现状的一个解释

农村经济体制改革以来,我国农村经济政策的直接目标已经由以往的以增产为主逐步转向以保证农民增收为主,农民收入水平也有了很大的提高。然而,农民收入现状仍然不容乐观：一是绝对收入水平偏低；二是城乡收入差距和地区收入差距逐步加大。笔者从政策角度对我国农民收入问题进行了分析,并对我国农业政策效应形成了五个方面的基本判断。     

Too big to fail — Lessons for today and the future from British industrial policy, 1960–1990

British industrial policy for two sectors (automotive and aerospace manufacture) in the period the 1960–1990 is considered and compared with the challenges facing the United Kingdom following the financial crisis of 2008. The history of the period 1960–1990 is informed by interviews with well-placed policy-makers of the time. These observations complement the historical record to confirm that British industrial policy was then more often a pragmatic response to events than the consequence of political ideology. Four particular phases of policy are observed: consolidation, investment, nationalisation and privatisation. During the decade 2000–2009 several British companies in banking, transport and energy have been subject to similar state interventions. In 2010 these companies are at various stages on the four step journey considered by the paper. The paper provides four lessons from the past for twenty-first century policy makers tasked with taking forward the companies with state investment and ensuring a return to economic prosperity.     

苏联模式影响下的绿地资源管理——从历史 制度主义视角之“路径依赖”解读

历史制度主义是新制度主义中的重要分支，强调政 策是随着时间的推移而被制度塑造的，存在着“路径依赖”现 象，这意味着在过去制度环境中做出的政策选择影响现在的政 策结果。中国城市治理制度深受苏联模式的影响，若想理解以 及应对规划管理中存在的问题，首先需探索其历史。提供了一 种从规划历史切入分析的视角以更好地理解与解决规划管理中 的现存问题，进而构建具有我国发展特色的规划管理理论分析 方法。首先探讨了历史制度主义在制度分析中的应用及优势， 然后通过探讨与分析我国绿地资源管理现状证明苏联模式如何 通过“路径依赖”影响现在的绿地资源管理机制，将历史制度 主义分析方法应用于理解我国的规划管理实践中，在我国自然 资源部成立的改革大背景下提出相应政策建议。     

The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study

In this paper, we examine the effects of Czech monetary policy on the economy within the vector auto regression (VAR), structural VAR, Bayesian VAR with sign restrictions, and factor-augmented VAR, frameworks. We document a well-functioning transmission mechanism similar to the euro area countries, especially in terms of persistence of monetary policy shocks. Subject to various sensitivity tests, we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock has a negative effect on the degree of economic activity and the price level, both with a peak response after one year or so. Regarding prices at the sectoral level, tradables adjust faster than non-tradables, which is in line with microeconomic evidence on price stickiness. There is no price puzzle, as our data come from a single monetary policy regime. There is a rationale in using the real-time output gap instead of current GDP growth, as using the former results in much more precise estimates. The results indicate a rather persistent appreciation of the domestic currency after a monetary tightening, with a gradual depreciation afterwards.     

城镇历史景观的层积规律解译及保护方法研究——以重庆龙兴古镇为例

基于城镇历史景观的“层积”理念，制定其景观要素构成与景观格局判定的解译标准；以重庆市龙兴古镇为研究对象，结合相关历史文献、地籍舆图及现状测绘等资料，建立龙兴古镇景观要素与景观格局2套数据库；利用ArcGIS平台、Depthmap软件分别对景观要素与景观格局进行统计分析和空间句法分析，剥离出龙兴古镇的3个历史阶段：形成期、发展期与成熟期，并对各阶段的特征状态进行分析，结合历史事件、文化兴衰、职能转变等历史背景，总结提取影响层积规律形成的关键因子；在层积规律解译的基础上提出对景观要素与景观格局的保护方法。     

泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验

本文运用历史分析法和反应函数法首次将中国货币政策运用于检验泰勒规则。通过计算中国货币政策中利率的泰勒规则值 ,并与其实际值进行比较表明 ,泰勒规则可以很好地衡量中国货币政策 ,利率规则值与实际值的偏离之处恰恰是政策操作滞后于经济形势发展之时。这表明泰勒规则能够为中国货币政策提供一个参照尺度 ,衡量货币政策的松紧。对中国货币政策的反应函数GMM估计表明 ,通胀率对利率的调整系数小于 1 ,这是一种不稳定的货币政策规则 ,在这一制度下 ,通货膨胀或通货紧缩的产生和发展有着自我实现机制。     

No news is costly news: The link between the diffusion of the press and public spending

This paper studies the link between the diffusion of news and spending decisions. We exploit a dataset of Italian Regions from 1984 to 2008, approximate the spread of information with the diffusion of newspapers, and estimate the effect of the news before and after 1995. In fact, in the mid-90s two reforms introduced the direct election of the governor, autonomous taxing powers and incentives for fiscal discipline at the regional level in Italy. We test the following hypotheses, derived from the theoretical literature: 1) the diffusion of newspapers affects public expenditures close to elections; 2) the more newspapers are diffused, the larger is the reduction of the electoral cycle; 3) before the reform were implemented, the diffusion of newspapers constrained the increased size of expenditures by reducing the positive variation of capital expenditures; 4) after the reform were implemented, the diffusion of newspapers leaves unaffected the size of expenditures by reducing both the positive variation of capital expenditures and the negative variation of current expenditures. The empirical analysis confirms the expectations; the results, moreover, are robust to alternative categorizations of the press and indicate a larger effectiveness of the diffusion of local press.     

Analogies and theories: The role of simplicity and the emergence of norms

We consider the dynamics of reasoning by general rules (theories) and by specific cases (analogies). When an agent faces an exogenous process, we show that, under mild conditions, if reality happens to be simple, the agent will converge to adopt a theory and discard analogical thinking. If, however, reality is complex, analogical reasoning is unlikely to disappear. By contrast, when the agent is a player in a large population coordination game, and the process is generated by all playersʼ predictions, convergence to a theory is much more likely. This may explain how a large population of players selects an equilibrium in such a game, and how social norms emerge. Mixed cases, involving noisy endogenous processes are likely to give rise to complex dynamics of reasoning, switching between theories and analogies.     

我国发展清洁能源的驱动机制研究

大力发展清洁能源是实现低碳经济的主要途径,也是我国的基本国策。现阶段,我国清洁能源发展虽已取得一定成绩,但仍存在生产成本高、融资难、市场拉动力不足等障碍因素。为此,基于清洁能源发展相关利益主体的视角,构建了由政府扶持、利益诱导和需求拉动等我国清洁能源发展的内在驱动机制。     

Prospects for sustainable land-use policy in Germany: Experimenting with a sustainability heuristic

Land is an essential yet limited natural resource. Its current unsustainable use highlights the need for sustainability policies. In order to explore potential policy strategies, we use the concepts of stocks and durable institutions as tools for analysing temporal structures in nature and society. These concepts are incorporated into a heuristic aimed at reducing complexity and finding windows of opportunity for policy action. The heuristic is applied to current German land-use policy. We show that the German government is highly unlikely to achieve its declared sustainability goal to reduce the rate of land conversion to 30 ha/day by 2020. Analysis of the inherent dynamics of major stocks and institutions reveals that, even in a situation with stagnating or declining population, the inertia of institutions such as local municipal self-administration and the municipal financial system prevents the government's sustainability goals from being achieved.     

Changes in Indirect Taxes in Australia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis

Over the last thirty years, the effects of indirect taxation changes have been analysed using comparative static general equilibrium models. We use a new method to analyse current changes in Australia's indirect taxes: dynamic computable general equilibrium modelling. Comparative static methods compare the situation in a given year (usually unspecified) with and without a policy change. The dynamic method shows the effects of a policy change through time. Comparative static methods are usually restricted to estimates of long-run changes in allocative efficiency. The dynamic method provides information not only on efficiency but also on adjustment processes, including variations in employment. With our dynamic method, the effects of policy changes are analysed as deviations from explicit forecasts. We find that these forecasts are important for the policy results. For Australia's current set of indirect tax changes, our main conclusions are (i) the short-run employment effects depend critically on the wage response; (ii) merchandise exporters benefit but tourism is harmed; and (iii) the long-run welfare effectsare likely to be negative, reflecting a decline in the terms of trade and increased compliance costs.     

An experimental investigation of Hobbesian jungles

Hobbes's state of nature serves as the analytical starting point for much of what economists have written on anarchy and the formation of government. Unfortunately little historical evidence exists about how men behaved in a “state of nature”, if such a situation ever even existed. We conducted a laboratory experiment to create a Hobbesian state of nature and observe the level of economic efficiency subjects achieve. We also investigate Buchanan's conjecture that people would unanimously agree to a social contract against theft.     

On methods for avoiding the a priori numerical specification of preferences in policy selection

Generalised inverses, repeated simulations, and regression analogies are all ways of avoiding the explicit specification of a policy optimization objective. They are contrasted here with a numerical search procedure which avoids specifying, a priori, approximations to such objectives.     

Putting Bosnia in its Place: Critical Geopolitics and the Representation of Bosnia in the British Print Media

Media reporting of the Bosnian Conflict (1992–1995) was significant in shaping Western policy responses to the collapse of the former Yugoslavia. This article considers the role of the British print media in articulating and representing Bosnia as a place in the geographical imagination. Bosnia, for many, was a sophisticated place in the heart of Europe whilst for others it was Bosnia's Balkan identity and all the associated negative connotations which informed journalistic reports. Representations of Bosnia were further complicated by the use of historical and geographical analogies. Finally I argue that the war of words which defined the Bosnian conflict as a ‘civil war’ and the result of ‘ancient ethnic hatreds’ resulted in the war being seen as a humanitarian catastrophe requiring a humanitarian response. These contested and contradictory narratives of place had profound consequences for political and military strategies during the war and for the final settlement at Dayton in 1995.