凯恩斯主义的理论缺陷及其新的发展

20世纪最具影响力的凯恩斯经济学理论很长时间内一直是西方国家制定经济政策的理论依据,但上世纪70年代以后,由于西方国家普遍出现经济滞胀,凯恩斯主义陷入困境,走向衰落。论述了凯恩斯主义对传统经济学的重大突破及其贡献,指出了凯恩斯主义自身的理论缺陷,阐述了新凯恩斯主义的理论前提及其特征,并分析了新凯恩斯主义经济政策的主要特点。     

失业理论及其对解决我国残疾人就业的参考意义

随着大众对失业问题及弱势群体的关注程度日益增加,研究残疾人就业问题更是愈加重要.本文在概迷西方经济学的失业理论的发展历程与启示的基础上,进一步探讨当今社会残疾人就业的现状及原因,分析我国相关政策,并提出应对对策.     

内生性通胀与外生性通胀理论——兼议凯恩斯经济学的衰落与复兴

凯恩斯经济学派的衰落源于一个长期无法解决的问题,这就是通货膨胀无法与宏观经济实现顺周期的问题.人类最理想的宏观经济情形就是菲利普斯曲线所描述的那样:经济繁荣时有通胀无失业,经济萧条时有失业无通胀,但"滞涨"打破了这一局面,现实经济与菲利普斯曲线的偏离导致凯恩斯宏观调控政策的失灵以及凯恩斯学派的衰落.本文提出了内生性通胀和外生性通胀的概念,其中内生性通胀完全是与宏观经济顺周期的,可以通过财政政策解决,而外生性通胀则与经济周期无关,需要用产业政策和货币政策有针对性地解决.本文还计算出了内生性通胀与经济增长之间的计量关系,这一中国新凯恩斯主义通胀理论的提出可以让凯恩斯经济学实现重新复兴.     

西方失业理论的最新发展及启示

本文在对传统失业理论进行回顾的基础上 ,重点介绍了新凯恩斯主义的粘性工资理论及职业搜寻与匹配理论 ,它们都着力于为自然失业构筑微观基础 ,发展和完善了失业理论。考察这些失业理论及就业对策 ,对解决我国面临的失业问题有重要意义。     

西方就业理论演进的历史轨迹及启示

西方就业理论从18世纪人口与资源均衡发展的思想萌芽开始,到20世纪90年代至今,有古典经济学派人口均衡发展思想、新古典经济学派就业理论、凯恩斯的就业理论、发展经济学的就业理论、人力资本与就业理论、新古典综合派就业理论、新凯恩斯主义就业理论、新自由主义的反古典经济学派就业理论等诸多经济学流派和就业理论体系。各学派深入探讨产生失业的原因,并形成各自颇具特色的就业理论。回顾和梳理西方就业理论的历史演变轨迹,对解决当前中国的就业问题,具有前瞻指导意义和参考价值。     

凯恩斯的失业理论对破解当前我国失业难题的启示

从资本主义社会失业的常态、资本主义社会失业的成因、资本主义社会有效需求不足的根源、资本主义社会医治失业问题的办法四个角度,对凯恩斯的失业理论进行系统、深入的分析,并且对其进行评述。认为凯恩斯的失业理论对破解当前我国失业难题的启示有两点：一是大力扶持民间经济的发展,充分发挥民间经济对就业的拉动效应;二是扩大消费需求,带动经济与就业的协调增长。     

凯恩斯就业理论对解决当前就业问题的意义

全球金融危机的背景下,我国的就业情况遭受着严峻的考验,解决当前大量的失业现状显得迫在眉睫.本文论述了凯恩斯的就业理论,阐明该理论的特点以及它对于失业问题的对策,并利用该理论对当前我国就业政策进行了探讨.     

凯恩斯理论对中国实现国家福利责任的价值意义

凯恩斯经济学理论产生于20世纪30年代西方国家经济大萧条时期,当时新古典经济学萨伊定律的"供给自动创造需求"对经济危机失去解释力。这时,国家垄断资本主义急需发展,反对自由放任的经济,主张实行国家干预。从凯恩斯的就业、财政政策和消费函数理论分析国家承担福利责任的必要性。通过我国实行免收农业税、农电下乡和应对2008年金融危机采取一系列财政与货币政策措施提高人民的福利水平的政策,阐述其对我国实行国家福利责任具有一定的借鉴意义。     

马克思失业理论与凯恩斯失业理论的分析和比较

马克思失业理论和凯恩斯失业理论是失业理论中最具有代表性的.他们都承认失业是资本主义国家的必然现象,然而在对失业原因的分析及解决对策上,却各有不同.马克思从资本主义制度入手,分析资本主义的生产方武,认为资本积累必然导致资本有机构成提高,从而导致相对过剩人口的出现.凯恩斯则是从经济危机中失业现象出发,认为有效需求不足导致失业的出现.本文将从失业原因和解决对策上比较两种失业理论.     

西方经济学理论对就业保障制度的影响

就业保障是各国政府采用经济和政策手段促进社会成员就业的制度体系。本文梳理了西方早期经济学思想、古典经济学及凯恩斯、萨缪尔森、弗里德曼等西方重要经济学家和学派针对治理失业问题、保障就业的思想渊源与相关理论,分析这些经济理论对各国就业保障制度的影响。     

本土市场效应、空间政策和就业增长——基于新经济地理学的角度

对于我国高增长低就业的现象,新古典经济学框架下对就业问题的解决常着眼于产业政策,而本文基于新经济地理学的框架,以本土市场效应为理论基础并加以拓展,说明了这种现象不仅仅是产业政策所致,而且更可能是由于不正确的空间政策的问题.认为从长远角度,我国应该主要依赖于国内市场需求来促进经济的发展和就业的提高,继而提出增加人口空间密度、减少要素空间流动壁垒、增大国内市场规模、推进城市化的建议.     

新古典经济学在中国转型实验中的作用有限

“华盛顿共识”和“休克疗法”是新古典宏观经济学派反凯恩斯革命的新浪潮。他们否认大萧条的基本教训,无视历史的多样性和经济的复杂性。他们自上而下设计的自由化与私有化政策,导致苏东(前苏联和东欧)经济在过去十余年间的大幅下跌。中国和苏东转型实验的比较研究,促使我们重新检验经济学的基本问题,例如均衡学派与非均衡演化学派关于经济波动本质的争论。转型萧条的惨重代价,使我们加深理解新古典经济学的误区,例如价格的线性供求理论、预算软约束理论、宏观经济的微观基础理论,以及新制度经济学的趋同理论。中国基于学习、创新和分散试验的新经验,将使经济学超越均衡优化的古典规范,去探索非均衡演化的复杂经济学。     

就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策——为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业?

尽管通常的计算低估了中国的就业弹性 ,但调整后的弹性数值仍属偏低。为什么经济的增长没有带来相应的就业增长呢 ?首先 ,反周期的宏观经济政策对解决自然失业是无能为力的 ;其次 ,在反周期的宏观经济政策所能调节的周期性失业方面 ,由于宏观经济政策所引导的投资方向往往是就业密集度较低的行业 ,进而导致反周期措施拉动就业的能力大为降低。因此 ,完善劳动力市场机制、加强职业培训体系建设、推动高就业产业发展 ,应成为经济政策的重点。     

Redistribution and employment policies with endogenous unemployment

We study optimal redistribution policy in an economy with three types of unemployed persons: those unable to work, the voluntarily unemployed, and the involuntarily unemployed. Both voluntary and involuntary unemployment are endogenous. Voluntary unemployment arises because individuals have different preferences, while involuntary unemployment results from frictions in the labour market or from an efficiency wage. We consider the employment policies of a well-informed government when it can and cannot commit to its policies. The model is simple, yet rich enough to reflect real-world policies, including transfers to the disabled, welfare for non-working employables, unemployment insurance, employment subsidies, and taxes on workers and firms.     

The economics of the Phillips curve: Formation of inflation expectations versus incorporation of inflation expectations

This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between “formation” of inflation expectations and “incorporation” of inflation expectations. Phillips curve theory has largely focused on the former. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to expectation formation keeps Phillips curve theory in the policy orbit of natural rate thinking where there is no welfare justification for higher inflation even if there is a permanent inflation–unemployment trade-off. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to incorporation of inflation expectations breaks that orbit and provides a welfare economics rationale for Keynesian activist policies that reduce unemployment at the cost of higher inflation.     

A New Specification of Labour Supply in the MONASH Model with an Illustrative Application

MONASH is a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. This article describes a new labour-market specification for MONASH in which people are allocated in year t to categories according to their labourmarket activities in year t – 1. People in each category plan their labour supplies by solving an optimisation problem. Via these problems, we introduce the assumption that people in employment categories supply labour more strongly to employment activities than do people in unemployment categories. Thus we find that employment-stimulating policies in t – 1 increase labour supply in t by shifting the composition of the labour force in t in favour of employment categories and away from unemployment categories. We illustrate this idea by using MONASH to simulate the Dawkins proposal to combine a freeze on award wage rates with tax credits for low-wage workers in low-income families. We find that the Dawkins policy would generate a significant short-run increase in employment. With the increase in employment generating an increase in labour supply, the employment benefits of the policy would persist over many years. However, in the long run, we would expect the effect of the policy on aggregate employment to be small and to depend on how the policy affected the ratio of real after-tax wage rates to unemployment benefits.     

马克思就业理论与西方就业理论比较研究

对中国失业的研究已是无法回避的一个问题,而寻求理论支持则是进行研究的一个重要方向。检索就业理论的资料,可以发现最有代表性的就业理论是马克思就业理论和西方就业理论。因此,对这两种就业理论加以比较,理解它们形成的不同背景和分析路径,对比它们不同的内容体系,可以发现它们其实发掘的只是失业的一个方面,遵循的是失业发生、发展的一条路径。因此,在比较中更全面地理解失业,并且可以为研究我国的失业提供某些启示。     

The breakdown of the IS–LM synthesis: implications for post-Keynesian economic theory

The monetarist and the new classical economics attack routed the IS–LM version of Keynesian theory and the large scale econometric models from the centre of macroeconomic research. However monetarism and the new classical economics were more successful as a critique of the IS–LM orthodoxy than as a basis for fruitful research and policy analysis.

Post-Keynesian economists also attack the IS–LM orthodoxy, mainly because it misspecified ‘… the economic society in which we actually live’. Post-Keynesians that emphasized financial and labour markets argued that properties of the real world economy made instability normal results ofmarket interactions.

The vacuum in main line theory that developed as the shortcomings of monetarism became evident led to a revival of interest in basic Keynesian propositions. This has spawned what is now labeled a new Keynesian economics. New Keynesian economists conform to the modeling standards set by the new classical rational expectations school but claim to get Keynesian results. To a degree these results are compatible with propositions of post-Keynesian economics.

It is suggested that a convergence between the new and the post-Keynesian economics can be expected, and the result is likely to be fruitful.     

我国失业原因新解:分工不足

本文以新兴古典经济学思想的基本要义——分工理论为分析基础，从一个新的视角探讨了我国失业产生的根本原因，并蕴含明确的政策含义，即以推进分工来消除失业。     

A Behavioral Model of Unemployment,Sociotropic Concerns,and the Political Economy of Trade Policy

We present a behavioral model in which agents are concerned about the scarring effects from unemployment for themselves and others and explore the manner in which unemployment matters for trade policy. We derive three policy implications: the government has an incentive to increase employment in sectors characterized by “good jobs,” where the good job/bad job characterization depends on an industry's job creation and destruction rates; the government has an incentive to pursue this policy in a gradual fashion by channeling new and unemployed workers into the appropriate sector; and opposition to trade liberalization can be reduced by welfare state policies.