中国农村居民时间偏好结构特征与扩大内需政策创新

本文采用行为经济学双曲线贴现模型并加以参数改造，对中国农村居民保守消费观中所包含的时间偏好的非线性偏差特征进行了技术表达和逻辑演绎。研究表明，农村居民由于“崇俭黜奢”理念的作用会表现出对奢侈品消费的负罪感，形成对消费的过度自我控制认知偏差和前低後高的时间偏好贴现率结构，从而造成跨期消费中持续的时间不一致，导致消费不足，以此可从“内因”的角度解释中国农村高储蓄、低消费之谜。本文模型派生出来的消费锁定技术能有效地抑制农村居民的遇度自我控制偏差，进而将其消费锁定在社会最优水平，与政府干预的阶段性和操作性要求相吻合，因此可成为解决中国农村居民消费拖延问题，实现扩大内需政策创新的一个理想选项。     

基于自我控制的消费文化对消费信贷影响研究

文章从自我控制的消费文化视角,基于行为经济学的双曲线贴现模型,以模型参数设定作为消费文化的技术表达,以文化渗透度和夫妻容忍度作为消费文化的代理变量,采用我国31个省市2004-2010年的面板数据,实证检验了消费文化对消费信贷的影响,并根据马斯洛需求层次理论解释了其作用机制。结果表明,代表消费文化的变量之一的文化渗透度与消费信贷正相关,代表消费文化的变量之一的夫妻容忍度与消费信贷负相关,消费文化可以通过影响消费者的需求层次结构来影响消费信贷行为。在我国,消费文化使得消费者更加注重生理和安全需求,发展需求较少。文章据此从消费者的需求层次和心理成本的视角提出了三点政策建议。     

投资者对经济基本面的认知偏差会影响证券价格吗?——中美证券市场对比分析

本文通过放松Lucas(1978)资本资产定价模型的完全理性假设,构建了投资者的经济基本面认知偏差对证券价格影响的计量模型。当投资者主观认知和市场实际运行机制存在偏差时,该模型能较好地解释诸如消费增长率同股权溢价的相关性、累积超额收益等传统资产定价模型无法量化的诸多中国股市难题。本文还推导出了适用于非理性期望的广义矩估计方法(GMM),克服了现有GMM方法只能在完全理性期望下使用的局限性。基于该方法,本文以中国和美国为例,模拟检验了投资主体的不同认知偏差对股价和债券价格的差异性影响程度。结果显示,中美投资者的主观预期形式并不完全相同。美国投资者对经济基本面信息均值的变化反应较敏感;而中国投资者却对经济基本面波动的变化反应较敏感。该结果从认知偏差角度解释了中国股价长期背离经济基本面的现象,为政府规范股票市场的发展,促进股市服务实体经济提供了政策启示。     

个体非理性经济行为的心理透析

个体经济活动有时会偏离基本的"经济人"理性原则,违背一些简单的经济运算法则,做出非理性经济行为,其原因与个体存在的心理账户及其认知偏差有关。了解并掌握心理账户的本质特征,把握认知偏差的规律,不仅能合理解释个体的某些消费和投资行为,而且能为企业或政府制定消费或投资政策提供决策指导。     

中国出口技术溢出效应实证研究——基于Meta回归分析法

文章运用Meta回归分析法实证研究了中国出口技术溢出效应,结果发现采用生产率指标、出口虚拟变量和面板数据会提高出口技术溢出效应的显著性,采用后两者更有可能得到出口技术溢出效应为正的结论,其中省级面板数据回归结果最显著,行业面板数据回归结果为正的可能性最大;样本区间跨度越长,出口技术溢出效应越显著,且从2001年开始更有可能显著为正;利用OLS法能提高出口技术溢出效应的显著性。故在引入控制变量前提下,分别采用生产率和出口虚拟变量作为被解释变量和解释变量,基于面板数据,运用OLS法,更有可能实证发现出口技术溢出效应显著为正,特别是在2001年之后。     

农村居民时间偏好结构特征与农村旅游市场开发

我国农村居民普遍存在对奢侈品消费的负罪感,从而形成短期贴现率低、长期贴现率高的不规则时间偏好结构特征。因此他们在进行长期消费计划时,会认同旅游类奢侈品消费的必要性。但在要进行即期消费时,又由于消费的负罪感而对旅游消费踌躇不前,发生消费拖延。文章采用行为经济学"双曲线贴现模型,"对这种消费的负罪感进行了技术表达和逻辑演绎,从时间偏好的角度解释了农民旅游消费不足的原因及形成机制。该模型内生的锁定技术可以克制消费者的消费负罪感,因此可广泛用于旅游产品设计,以促成农村居民旅游市场开发的技术创新。     

论审计判断与决策中的认知偏差

认知偏差,是客观存在的主观心理现象存在,任何人都存在认知偏差和认知错觉。承认存在审计人员的审计认知偏差,并不表明他们的工作总是存在审计错误。了解这种自我局限及人类大脑中普遍存在的偏差,却能使他们更好地去思考问题、作好决策。另一方面,也可让社会公众更好地了解审计学科的特点与本质。因此,研究审计认知偏差具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

长三角区域创新集聚的空间计量实证研究

结合长三角区域经济与地理两方面特征构建空间权重矩阵,建立空间静态与动态面板SEM模型,对其2003—2013年区域创新空间集聚现象进行考察。Thiel熵显示区域创新存在不平衡性,但在逐渐缩小;Moran's I指数显示区域创新有明显的正空间相关性,在地理空间上集聚;空间静态面板模型实证虽发现长三角的区域创新集聚存在空间正相关性,但因忽略了一些潜在的因素,而高估创新生产的空间相关系数、个体随机效应以及创新投入变量的影响,从而使得模型与实际情况存在偏差,而空间动态面板模型正好弥补其缺点,能更真实客观解释。     

我国制造业结构与对外贸易国际竞争力的经验分析

提高我国制造业对外贸易国际竞争力是一个受到普遍关注和需要研究解决的重要问题。笔者以反映制造业行业国际竞争力的显示性比较优势指数为模型的被解释变量,以衡量制造业经济绩效水平、利用外资情况、企业技术水平和制造业空间地理集聚程度的总资产贡献率、外向化程度指标、全员劳动生产率和C4指数为模型的解释变量,利用个体随机效应模型对显示性比较优势指数与解释变量的相关性进行了经验分析。经验结果表明:外向化程度指标、全员劳动生产率和C4指数分别与制造业产品国际竞争力有显著的正相关关系,而总资产贡献率则与其不存在显著的正相关关系。根据经验结论,本文提出了通过进一步引用外资、改善企业技术结构和促进产业集聚来提升制造业产品的对外贸易国际竞争力的政策建议。     

多维认知偏差投资风险能量密度模型探究

金融全球化下,金融活动的参与主体逐步多样化,投资者的认知偏差加剧了证券投资活动中风险度量的难度。现有的金融证券投资的理论研究与实践应用基本都是围绕着如何处理风险与收益的关系而展开的。但是,传统的理论方法与标准的金融风险度量方法在一定程度上忽略了人的心理认知行为等因素的影响,使得对现有的风险度量工具和方法的借鉴与应用增加了投资者额外的决策风险。鉴于此,本文引入心理行为因素的时间变量,在理论研究与投资者认知行为研究的基础上,借助物理学中能量密度相关理论与思想方法构建多认知偏差的时间风险度量模型,度量金融投资活动中基于多种偏差的投资组合风险,克服了传统风险度量方法在完全理性人条件下主要依赖于历史数据推导的缺陷,从而使得证券组合的风险度量更接近于实际的证券投资组合状况。最后文章根据模型分析提出相关政策建议。     

Economics training and hyperbolic discounting: training versus selection effects

This paper contributes to the literature on the effects of economics training on behavior by examining the link between hyperbolic discounting and the number of economics classes taken by a sample of 1310 college graduates at Ohio University. A strong negative correlation is found between economics training and hyperbolic discounting behavior. Regression analysis shows that dynamic consistency is a determinant of taking economics classes. Once the endogeneity of these variables is accounted for, economics training is no longer a statistically significant determinant of hyperbolic discounting. Thus, the selection effect of studying economics outweighs the training effect. Behavioral variables are found to be more important in explaining hyperbolic discounting than demographic variables. The study suggests the importance of controlling for both the selection effect and the training effect for all studies that examine the role of economic training on behavior.     

Constant Consumption Paths In Open Economies With Exhaustible Resources

We examine the effects of international trade on the paths of investment which maintain consumption constant over time in each country, each of which produces an essential exhaustible resource such as oil. For countries identical except for the sizes of their oil stocks, the investing of own oil rents in machine capital will not result in constant consumption in each country. Adjusted rent-investment strategies are developed which do yield constant consumption in each country. We also report results on the link in each country between its consumption levels and aggregate current wealth.     

Exponential discounting bias

We address intertemporal utility maximization under a general discount function that nests the exponential discounting and the quasi-hyperbolic discounting cases as particular specifications. Under the suggested framework, the representative agent adopts, at some initial date, an optimal behavior that shapes her consumption trajectory over time. This agent desires to take a constant discount rate to approach the optimization problem, but bounded rationality, under the form of a present bias, deviates the individual from the intended goal. As a result, decreasing impatience will end up dominating the agent’s behavior. The individual will not be aware of her own time inconsistency and, therefore, she will not revise her plans as time elapses, what makes the problem relatively simple to address from a computational point of view. The general discounting framework is used to approach a standard optimal growth model in discrete time. Transitional dynamics and stability properties of the corresponding dynamic setup are studied. An extension of the standard utility maximization model to the case of habit persistence is also considered.     

我国城乡居民信息消费的结构差异成长

本文旨在立足全球化背景下我国转型期的国情特殊性,从消费发展的角度,论述我国城乡居民信息消费的结构差异成长特征与趋势,剖析这种结构差异成长的因素与动因,从而为我国城乡居民信息消费健康发展和消费结构升级提供决策依据。     

Understanding intertemporal choices

Previous experimental results show clearly that many subjects do not optimize when solving a life-cycle consumption problem. What do they do? This paper attempts to resolve this question, looking at the discounting, hyperbolic and rolling models as possible explanations. Data from two experiments (one an experiment with a typical subject pool and the second an experiment with subjects from the CentER panel) is used, and the advantage of having experimental data is exploited, which means that one can actually estimate the hyperbolic model. It is shown that the (exponential) discounting model appears to give the best explanation – suggesting that subjects do look ahead (as they should) but increasingly less as time passes (as they should not in the context of these experiments).     

Economic and other determinants of infant and child mortality in small developing countries: the case of Central America and the Caribbean

This analysis involves empirically testing a theoretical model among 22 Central American and Caribbean countries during the 1990s that explains differences in infant and child mortality. Explanatory measures capture demographic, economic, health care, and educational characteristics. The model is expected to allow for an assessment of the potential impact of structural adjustment and external debt. It is pointed out that birth rates and child mortality rates followed similar patterns over time and between countries. In this study's regression analyses all variables in the three models that explain infant mortality are exogenous: low birth weight, immunization, gross domestic product per capita, years of schooling for women, population/nurse, and debt as a proportion of gross national product. As nations became richer, infant mortality declined. Infant mortality was lower in countries with high external debt. In models for explaining the birth rate and the child mortality rate, the best fit included variables for debt, real public expenditure on health care, water supply, and malnutrition. Analysis in a simultaneous model for 10 countries revealed that the birth rate and the child mortality rate were more responsive to shocks in exogenous variables in Barbados than in the Dominican Republic, and more responsive in the Dominican Republic than in Guatemala. The impact of each exogenous variable varied by country. In Barbados education was four times more effective in explaining the birth rate than water. In Guatemala, the most effective exogenous variable was malnutrition. Child mortality rates were affected more by multiplier effects. In richer countries, the most important impact on child survival was improved access to safe water, and the most important impact on the birth rate was increased real public expenditure on education per capita. For the poorest countries, findings suggest first improvement in malnutrition and then improvement in safe water supplies. Structural adjustment variables were found to have small impacts on the birth rate or limited impacts on child survival in poorer countries.     

Hyperbolic discounting and the standard model: Eliciting discount functions

Experiments on static intertemporal choice find evidence of particularly extreme impatience toward immediate rewards. While this is often taken as support for hyperbolic discounting, it could also arise because the most likely participants in experiments may be those with the most immediate need for money. We conduct a calibration exercise and find that the extreme impatience observed in experiments can be accommodated by a standard exponential discounting model with no discounting and expectation of a ‘small’ increase in the base consumption level. The calibration uses existing estimates of curvature of utility.     

Policy Effects in Hyperbolic vs. Exponential Models of Consumption and Retirement

This paper constructs a structural retirement model with hyperbolic preferences and uses it to estimate the effect of several potential Social Security policy changes. Estimated effects of policies are compared using two models, one with hyperbolic preferences and one with standard exponential preferences. Sophisticated hyperbolic discounters may accumulate substantial amounts of wealth for retirement. We find it is frequently difficult to distinguish empirically between models with the two types of preferences on the basis of asset accumulation paths or consumption paths around the period of retirement. Simulations suggest that, despite the much higher initial time preference rate, individuals with hyperbolic preferences may actually value a real annuity more than individuals with exponential preferences who have accumulated roughly equal amounts of assets. This appears to be especially true for individuals with relatively high time preference rates or who have low assets for whatever reason. This affects the tradeoff between current benefits and future benefits on which many of the retirement incentives of the Social Security system rest.Simulations involving increasing the early entitlement age and increasing the delayed retirement credit do not show a great deal of difference whether exponential or hyperbolic preferences are used, but simulations for eliminating the earnings test show a non-trivially greater effect when exponential preferences are used.     

The Impact of Power Equality,Income, and the Environment on Human Health: Some Inter‐Country Comparisons

Economic studies on environmental degradation generally have a narrow focus on per capita income as an explanatory variable, and often fail to distinguish among the various types of environmental quality or damage. This paper addresses both problems by examining the effect of relative equality in the distribution of power on environmental outcomes, and making a clear distinction between health‐related environmental outcomes and so‐called ‘environmental amenities,’ only the latter of which should correlate strongly with income. This paper introduces a national index of power equality that is derived from related socioeconomic variables, and studies its effects on individual country achievement in addressing environmental quality and population health. This model is applied to a data set of 180 countries, as well as to subgroups of the entire country set. Employing disability‐adjusted life expectancy and the population child mortality rate as two health proxies, this paper finds that power equality in most cases positively influences population health, and that power equality is in every case no worse and in some cases better than per capita income at explaining population health.     

Capital income taxation in a growing world economy

This paper deals with dynamic adjustment in large economies to changes in the rate of capital income taxation or in the rate of investment tax credit in one country. The framework applied in the paper is a continuous-time, overlapping generations model with two countries. It features population growth and debt non-neutrality. We address impact and steady state effects of capital income tax and investment subsidy changes in the home country on consumption per capita, the capital intensity, and the per capita net foreign asset position in both countries. We also briefly consider individual welfare consequences of these policies.