证券投资基金绩效评价理论方法研究综述

投资基金绩效评价是基金研究中的一个重要问题,目前对基金绩效评价主要表现在基金的收益、风险水平、选股择时能力和绩效的可持续性等方面。对基金绩效评价的各种方法和模型进行系统的总结和分析,并提出进一步研究的方向。     

基于VaR的中国基金绩效评价

传统的基金绩效评估考虑了收益上下两个方向的波动,并不衡量真正可能的损失风险。经风险修正后的基金绩效评价方法——基于VaR的基金绩效评价方法,是运用了极端风险VaR作为风险修正对基金绩效进行评价的方法。通过此基金绩效评价方法和统计软件SPSS,对国内若干基金进行绩效评估与排名,并将结果与传统评价方法的结果进行对比和分析,说明运用基于VaR的基金绩效评价方法能更准确反映基金的绩效。     

浅谈基金绩效评价的影响因素

目前,证券投资基金是发达国家普通投资者和机构投资者最重要的投资工具之一。投资者通过了解证券投资基金的业绩,来决定是否投资于基金,投资于何种基金。基金管理人通过了解投资绩效辅助决策。因此,对基金绩效评价体系的构造和方法研究就显得更为突出。本文先论述基金绩效评价在基金业中所发挥的重要作用,然后说明了影响基金绩效评价的相关因素,最后针对基金绩效评价中存在的问题提出了相关的建议。     

我国产业投资基金绩效评价体系建设的相关问题研究

目前,我国对产业投资基金绩效评价的研究基本上还是一个空白,文章通过对我国产业投资基金开展绩效评价的意义以及绩效评价体系建设的现实选择进行了深入分析,提出了我国产业投资基金进行绩效评价体系建设的总体思路以及绩效评价体系建设的基本原则,探讨了我国产业投资基金进行绩效评价的具体方法,并选择基金的绝对投资收益率、基于风险调整的平均收益率以及基金经理人的管理能力三项指标构建了"532线性回归绩效评价模型",以此作为产业投资基金绩效评价的一个工具。     

政府创业投资引导基金绩效评价体系的建构——基于主成分和层次分析组合方法的研究

政府创业投资引导基金作为财政支出的创新形式,在发展新经济、培育新动能上作用日益显著.引导基金绩效评价体系的科学建构,是综合反映引导基金政策引导效果,全面考察引导基金运行质量的必要路径.本文介绍了政府创业投资引导基金绩效评价体系构建的一种方式,选取公共财政实现目标、社会效益实现目标、经济效益实现目标及规范管理实现目标四个方面共21个指标作为衡量政府创投引导基金绩效的评价指标体系,并应用主成分和层次分析法,对政府创投引导基金绩效评价体系的建构进行实证分析.     

我国证券投资基金绩效的研究与评价

我国证券投资基金发展迅猛 ,但是我国在基金绩效评价方法和评价机制发展方面则非常滞后 ,已经影响到投资者对基金的投资 ,阻碍了基金的进一步发展。因此建立有效适用的证券投资基金绩效评价体系具有重要的现实意义。本文从收益与风险、风险调整收益、基金经理人的选股择时能力以及基金绩效的持续性四个方面建立指标体系 ,并用主成分统计分析方法对上述四个方面进行综合 ,试图得出一个度量基金绩效的综合指数 ,对各基金进行全面的评价与排序 ,克服了以往单纯使用一种或某几种方法带来的缺陷与不足 ,为今后我国证券投资基金绩效评价体系的构建与完善以及基金的发展提供借鉴。     

投资组合绩效评价的实证研究

基于对欧美国家流行的基金风险调整评价指标的评析，再考虑到这些评价指标对同一投资组合绩效评价结果排序的不一致，本文应用复相关系数法给出了一种新的综合评价指标。该指标能够合理地实现对单个投资组合的绩效评价和对多个投资组合的绩效排序，提高了基金绩效评价的可信度。     

基金绩效评价方法的发展

文章主要介绍了国外基金绩效评价理论的各个方面,包括证券选择和时机选择、业绩归因、绩效的持续性、基金风格、绩效评估的一致性、基准组合的有效性和资产配置分析等方面的理论,还简单介绍了目前国内绩效评价主要的研究方向和成果。     

基于风险调整收益评估理论的股票型基金绩效实证分析

近年来,开放式股票型基金已经成为机构投资者的重要关注点,在中国资本市场上发挥着不可替代的作用.对于开放式股票型基金的绩效评价成为众所周知的重要课题.本文首先从理论角度介绍了国内关于基金绩效评价的研究,其次借助风险调整的收益评估理论,选取10只股票型基金为样本,对基金的承担风险能力和收益状况进行了分析.     

基于DEA模型的我国开放式基金绩效评价体系及其实证研究

基于对国内外基金绩效评价研究成果的总结,运用运筹学中广泛用于相对绩效评估的系统分析方法——数据包络分析,构建了一套符合中国国情的开放式基金综合评价体系;并应用数学规划方法,重点从收益风险、基金经理选股能力以及市场择时能力等方面,对决策单元绩效的有效性进行评价,提出了发展我国开放式基金的若干建议。     

股指期货套期保值效率比较研究——基于沪深300股指期货与新华富时A5指数期货

文章基于我国股票型基金十大重仓股构建投资组合,并利用沪深300股指期货与新华富时A50指数期货的日数据对这两种股指期货的套期保值效率进行比较研究,以探究两者在套期保值效率上的差异和造成差异产生的原因。在利用OLS、VECM和ECM-BGRACH等静态和动态套期保值模型和基于风险最小化的套期保值绩效指标对沪深300股指期货与新华富时A50指数期货的套期保值效率进行研究后发现,在静态最优套保比、时变最优套保比和套期保值绩效指标的比较中,新华富时A50指数期货都要优于沪深300股指期货。这种套期保值效率上的差异主要来自于两个金融工具间的合约与交易规则的差别。建议通过设立适当时间的晚间电子盘交易,并允许金融机构在规定的份额内进行期指套利交易,以提升沪深300股指期货在套期保值市场功能上的效率。     

我国封闭式基金折价与基金运行绩效的相关性检验

笔者以我国的封闭式基金为样本,利用面板数据建模,综合考量了基金折价率与基金绩效指标间相关关系.研究结果发现,基金绩效指标对当期折价指标有显著的负的影响;而当期的基金折价指标不能准确预测未来绩效水平,即基金折价率并没有提供对未来基金绩效的有价值信息.     

The pricing of time-varying beta

We generalize an asset pricing model based on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) allowing beta to be time-varying. Making beta a random variable adds flexibility to the model because permits a non-linear relation between individual returns and the set of factors, and accounts for the effect of possible omitted variables. We integrate the conditional APT with a general linear stochastic process for beta. We analyze the behavior of the conditional expected return, the conditional variance and conditional covariance of individual asset returns as functions of the conditional moments of beta. On considering time-varying betas we introduce another source of uncertainty (risk) independent of the factors. We need to disentangle if this extra risk is systematic or non-systematic. To this end, we introduce a modified conditional APT model that rationalizes why the time variation of beta may represent extra systematic risk. For a sample of individual stocks, we test the hypothesis of time-varying beta and the feasibility of the modified conditional APT. We present a test for time-varying beta based on the conditional second moments of returns. We find that there is strong evidence against constancy of betas in favor of a random coefficient model, and that the time variation of beta is due to non-systematic behavior of the firms and investors should be able to diversify this risk away.     

我国封闭式基金绩效的实证研究

本文应用修正的夏普指数,对我国证券市场上29只封闭式基金在2003年7月到2007年6月的数据进行统计研究,分析了样本基金在统计期内控制风险和实现收益的能力,以及样本期内基金绩效的持续性。得出结论：我国封闭式基金具有较为一致的分散非系统风险能力,基金绩效普遍具有优于市场基准组合的表现,基金绩效具有持续性等。     

我国开放式基金股票配置策略与基金业绩间关系的实证研究

利用2005—2012年我国58只偏股型开放式基金的半年度数据,通过排序研究和建立平衡面板数据模型,对基金持股集中度和股票资产换手率与基金业绩的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,用赫芬达尔指数刻画的持股集中度与用基金累计单位净值增加值刻画的基金业绩显著正相关,股票资产换手率也与基金累计单位净值增加值显著正相关。提出:基金投资者可通过选择持股集中度和股票资产换手率高的基金来获得理想的投资收益。     

科研经费“包干制”改革逻辑动因及推进机制研究

科研经费“包干制”对激发科研人员潜能、提升科研绩效水平具有重要意义。在梳理中国科研经费政策演变的基础上，采用政策分析法对比美国、英国等发达国家科研经费管理模式，总结中国科研经费管理实践中存在的问题，探究改革的逻辑动因，并从考核、激励、容错、审计监督、防控预警、多中心治理6个方面设计科研经费“包干制”推进机制，以期破除科研经费改革中面临的梗阻，优化科技资金配置，调动科研人员热情，释放科研人员潜能，提升科研绩效水平。     

Time-varying beta: a boundedly rational equilibrium approach

The conditional CAPM with time-varying betas has been widely used to explain the cross-section of asset returns. However, most of the literature on time-varying beta is motivated by econometric estimation using various latent risk factors rather than explicit modelling of the stochastic behaviour of betas through agents’ behaviour, such as momentum trading. Misspecification of beta risk and the lack of any theoretical guidance on how to specify risk factors based on the representative agent economy appear empirically challenging. In this paper, we set up a dynamic equilibrium model of a financial market with boundedly rational and heterogeneous agents within the mean-variance framework of repeated one-period optimisation and develop an explicit dynamic behaviour CAPM relation between the expected equilibrium returns and time-varying betas. By incorporating the two most commonly used types of investors, fundamentalists and chartists, into the model, we show that there is a systematic change in the market portfolio, risk-return relationships, and time varying betas when investors change their behaviour, such as the chartists acting as momentum traders. In particular, we demonstrate the stochastic nature of time-varying betas. We also show that the commonly used rolling window estimates of time-varying betas may not be consistent with the ex-ante betas implied by the equilibrium model. The results provide a number of insights into an understanding of time-varying beta.     

Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models

In this article, we study the time-varying market neutrality of equity market neutral hedge funds. We use data from the Hedge Fund Research? Equity Market Neutral Index (HFRX EH), which represents the performance of a portfolio of individual equity market neutral hedge funds. For each day, we measure different levels of association of the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&;P 500) index and the HFRX EH. We use non-linear dynamic conditional score models of location, scale and copula that, to the best of our knowledge, have not yet been applied in the body of literature on hedge funds. We study whether the neutrality of the HFRX EH that is evidenced in the body of literature for the period of April 1993–April 2003 also holds for the following decade, for the period of May 2003–December 2016. We estimate different average levels of association for the pre-, during- and post-periods of the US financial crisis of 2008. We find that the association of the S&;P 500 and the HFRX EH, on average, is significantly positive for the pre- and post-periods of the financial crisis, and it is significantly negative for the period during the financial crisis.     

Individual account investment options and portfolio choice: Behavioral lessons from 401(k) plans

This paper examines how the menu of investment options made available to workers in defined contribution plans influences portfolio choice. Using unique panel data of 401(k) plans in the U.S., we present three principle findings. First, we show that the share of investment options in a particular asset class (i.e., company stock, equities, fixed income, and balanced funds) has a significant effect on aggregate participant portfolio allocations across these asset classes. Second, we document that the vast majority of the new funds added to 401(k) plans are high-cost actively-managed equity funds, as opposed to lower-cost equity index funds. Third, because the average share of assets invested in low-cost equity index funds declines with an increase in the number of options, average portfolio expenses increase and average portfolio performance is thus depressed. All of these findings are obtained from a panel data set, enabling us to control for heterogeneity in the investment preferences of workers across firms and across time.