A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified.A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field ‘defence’ is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology has the potential to generate useful insights for government organizations to help direct technology investments.     

To what extent do earnings affect the R&D decision of Chinese manufacturing firms?

ABSTRACT

As R&D activities are involved in inherent uncertainty of large investment, high risk and long return periods, earnings, as the main source of internal financing, have been a significant factor of R&D decision in the firms. In contrast to the previous research, this study investigates the impacts of firm’s earnings on R&D decision, in which earnings are measured by the indicators of earnings level, earnings quality and earnings persistence, while separating firm R&D activity into two stages of (i) the decision to undertake R&D activity and (ii) the amount to be invested on innovation activities. We document that earnings level can increase the probability of undertaking R&D activity, but has no effect on R&D investment intensity. Earnings quality and earnings persistence have a promotional effect on both stages of R&D decision. The empirical evidence of the subsamples shows that the impacts of earnings are heterogeneous across different ownership and technology-intensity firms.     

Do subsidies have positive impacts on R&D and innovation activities at the firm level?

In this paper we analyze whether and how “research” and “development” subsidies influence private R&D activity. Our empirical results show that “research” subsidies stimulate R&D spending within firms while “development” subsidies substitute such spending. At the theoretical level we find empirical support for the market failure argument that private R&D expenditure is best stimulated in areas where the gap between the social and the private rate of return to R&D is high. A policy implication is that technology programs should support research projects in the private sector in order to stimulate to more R&D.     

International Cooperation on Climate-friendly Technologies

We examine international cooperation on technological development as an alternative to international cooperation on emission reductions. We show that without any R&D cooperation, R&D in each country should be increased beyond the non-cooperative level if (i) the technology level in one country is positively affected by R&D in other countries, (ii) the domestic carbon tax is lower than the Pigovian level, or (iii) the domestic carbon tax is set directly through an international tax agreement. We also show that a second-best technology agreement has higher R&D, higher emissions, or both compared with the first-best-outcome. The second-best subsidy always exceeds the subsidy under no international R&D cooperation. Further, when the price of carbon is the same in the second-best technology agreement and in the case without R&D cooperation, welfare is highest, R&D is highest and emissions are lowest in the second-best R&D agreement.     

On `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers

An influential literature argues that trade promotes knowledge flows and technology transmission between trading partners. This literature focuses on `direct' research and development (R&D) spillovers which are related to the levels of R&D produced by the trading partners. In this paper, we argue that `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers also take place between countries, even if they do not trade with each other. These `indirect' spillovers are associated with available rather than with produced levels of R&D. Our empirical results suggest that these `indirect' trade-related spillovers are at least as important as the `direct' ones, and strengthen the view that trade does matter for the international transmission of R&D. They also suggest that, due to the existence of these `indirect' effects, bilateral trade patterns are relatively less important determinants of the level of foreign R&D spillovers acquired through trade.     

Hidden innovators: the role of non-R&D activities

Although R&D has been highlighted as the main source of firm-level innovations, a significant group of firms develop innovations without performing R&D activities. The primary goal of this study is to understand the sources of innovation in such firms. To accomplish this goal, we explore the role played by other, non-R&D activities that can lead to innovation – activities such as technology forecasting, design, use of advanced manufacturing technologies and training. Our empirical analysis is based on a representative panel of Spanish manufacturing firms. The results strongly support the view that non-R&D activities are critical factors in explaining both product and process innovations attained by any firm, especially in the case of firms not performing R&D. Academic, managerial, and policy implications are derived from these results.     

A comparative analysis of the change in R&D efficiency: a case of R&D leaders in the technology industry

This paper measures the cumulative change in research and development (R&D) efficiency of globally leading R&D companies in the technology industry. We use Data Envelopment Analysis /Malmquist index to analyse 49 such companies. The change in R&D efficiency is analysed by decomposing the Malmquist index into ‘catch-up’ and ‘frontier shift’ indices, and by comparing cumulative indices to those at the starting period. Those cumulative indices are obtained at both a firm and an industry level. Results indicate that the overall R&D efficiency of these globally leading R&D companies declined slightly during the period 2007–2013. At a firm level, this study determines in detail how the trend of each firm in R&D activities differs from other companies.     

Racing in two dimensions

In this paper we study an industry in which there is an ongoing sequence of R&D races between two firms. Firms are engaged in product innovation. Products are horizontally and vertically differentiated. There are two key characteristics/dimensions to products, and the level at which these are embodied in products can be increased by R&D. At each time firms can spend R&D on improving their product in one or both dimensions. We allow the possibility of economies scope — so R&D undertaken in one dimension can spillover to the other. The question we are interested in is whether a firm that is ahead in a single dimension but behind in another will focus all its R&D effort in the area in which it is ahead (product specialisation), or whether it will try to do R&D in both dimensions in the hope that it might get ahead in both and end up with a superproduct that dominates in both characteristics. The outcome of this R&D competition determines a Markov transition probability matrix determining the evolution of the industry. We show that when the R&D technology is characterized by constant returns then the only steady-state outcome is one in which the economy stays forever in a position in which one firm produces a super-product and the other gives up doing R&D altogether. This outcome is unaffected by the degree of economies of scope. When the R&D technology is characterised by decreasing returns, then the industry will visit all states and so will exhibit both product specialisation and superproduct dominance at various times. Now the extent of economies of scope matters and we show that the greater the extent of economies of scope, the less likely is the industry to exhibit product dominance, and the more likely it is to exhibit product specialisation.     

R&D and patents: is it a two way street?

ABSTRACT

This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between firms’ R&D expenditure and patent registrations by applying the Granger causality test. We use a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 1990–2013. We first, examine the R&D-patents relationship in the manufacturing firms as a whole and subsequently, manufacturing was broken down into three groups of firms according to the technological level of the industries to which the firms belonged: high and medium-high (HMHT), low medium (LMT) and low (LT) technology firms. For the entire panel, our results provide support for a bidirectional relationship between R&D and patents, supporting both the traditional view and the reverse causality approach (patents cause R&D). When the sample is split into the three technology levels, we also find strong support for a bidirectional relationship in HMHT firms and weak support in LT ones. We found no evidence of this bidirectional link in LMT firms.     

Too little or too much R&D?

According to the first generation models of endogenous growth based on expanding product variety, the market economy unambiguously generates too little R&D. Later, by disentangling returns to specialization from the market power parameter, it was shown that with sufficiently low returns to specialization too much R&D can occur. The present paper takes a step further, disentangling the market power parameter from the capital share in final output. At a theoretical level this helps finding too much R&D as well. On the other hand, in view of the empirically realistic order of magnitude between the parameters, disentangling market power and capital share tends to diminish the scope for excess R&D. Finally, by differentiating between net and gross returns to specialization we demonstrate what drives the differing inefficiency results in this literature.     

R&D,export and investment decision: evidence from European firms

This article provides an empirical investigation of the mechanism through which R&D influences export and tangible investment decisions. The analysis is based on a large representative and cross-country comparative sample of manufacturing firms across seven European countries. The novelty of this work lies in the three aspects. First, we expand the results on the R&D–export and R&D–investment relationships to a wide sample of cross-European firms. This differentiates from previous works based on single-country samples. Second, to the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in years which assess empirically the relationship between R&D and tangible investment at the micro level. Third, we control for endogeneity of R&D and simultaneity in firms’ decision whether to export and carry out tangible investment. The results of the analysis suggest that R&D positively affects export propensity and tangible investment. The results also reveal that neglecting endogeneity and simultaneity issues leads to underestimate the effect of R&D to both export and investment propensities.     

Human resource management for learning through knowledge exploitation and knowledge exploration: Pharmaceuticals in Mexico

This paper investigates the influence of human resource management practices on the likelihood that a firm performs in-house R&D. R&D is broadly interpreted as learning—a mechanism promoting absorptive capacity and supporting technology capability-building. Firms can choose between two learning strategies: they can exploit existing knowledge, or perform more complex explorations and acquire new knowledge. Different knowledge requirements associate with distinct R&D outcomes with varying degrees of novelty for the firm. Findings are supported with evidence from the pharmaceutical industry in Mexico. The analysis reveals positive linkages between human resource management practices and learning at firm level. The relationship is contingent on factors such as expected R&D outcomes, or the novelty of the knowledge required by the firm. The provision of training revealed the more consistent, positive influence on the likelihood that pharmaceuticals firms perform R&D in Mexico.     

Measuring universities’ R&D performance in China’s provinces: a multistage efficiency and effectiveness perspective

ABSTRACT

Evaluating universities’ R&D performance can serve as a tool for policymakers, enabling them to identify the best R&D practitioners for benchmarking and develop strategies for enhancing performance by highlighting areas of weakness. This study divides universities’ R&D performance into two dimensions: efficiency and effectiveness. We employ a network data envelopment analysis approach to measure universities’ R&D efficiency, and separately use a multi-index comprehensive evaluation method to assess their R&D effectiveness from a multistage perspective. We calculate the comprehensive R&D performance of universities in 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2014. An analysis of temporal variation reveals that universities’ R&D performance in some provinces improved rapidly, increasing gaps in performance as a whole. The spatial pattern for the 30 provinces shows that universities in provinces with medium or strong R&D performance are mainly in coastal provinces and central areas in China. Finally, universities’ R&D activities are considered ‘efficient and effective’ only in a small number of provinces, while in most provinces, these activities can generally be considered ‘less efficient and effective.’ Hence, universities in provinces with different R&D performance modes should implement targeted improvement strategies according to their characteristics.     

Factor analysis and structural equation model for patent analysis: a case study of Apple’s technology

In this study, we analyse patent data for technology analysis (TA) because patents are rich in information on developed technology. The results of TA can be used to perform more efficient research and development (R&D) planning. Most companies are trying to develop new and innovative technologies to improve their competitive positions. Research involving TA has been introduced in a variety of fields. Most of the published research analysed original variables related to a target technology. However, it is necessary to analyse the latent variables as well as the original variables included in the technology to achieve a better TA model. Therefore, we propose a factor analysis and a structural equation model for patent analysis. In addition, we use Apple’s patents to determine the target technology. In our case study, we analyse Apple’s technologies by latent variables. Our case study shows how the proposed model is applied to Apple’s R&D planning.     

R&D and Productivity in German Manufacturing Firms

This papcr uses a new firm panel data set to explore the relationship between R&D and productivity in German manufacturing firms for the period from 1979 to 1989. The results confirm the view that K&D is an important determinant of productivity growth. In the cross-section, the elasticity of sales with respect to R&D capital is on the order of 14 per cent. Using fixed-effects estimators yields R&D elasticities of about 8 per cent. Assuming different depreciation rates for R&D capital has virtually no effect on these results. Differencing estimates improve considerably when growth rates are computed over longer time periods, suggesting that the divergence between time-series and cross-sectional estimates is driven by random measurement errors. The paper also considers differences between high technology and other firms. Cross-section and panel elasticity estimates of the R&D effect diverge considerably for the two groups, while the corresponding rate of return estimators display far less variation. There is some evidence that the R&D elasticity increased during the early 1980s, and that it fell sharply back to its 1979 value during the period from 1985 to 1989.     

How effective are level-based R&D tax credits? Evidence from the Netherlands

This article examines the impact of the R&D fiscal incentive programme on R&D by Dutch firms. Taking a factor demand approach, we measure the elasticity of firm R&D capital accumulation to its user cost. Econometric models are estimated using a rich unbalanced panel of firm data covering the period 1996 to 2004 with firm specific R&D user costs varying with tax incentives. Using the estimated user cost elasticity, we perform a cost–benefit analysis of the R&D incentive programme. We find some evidence of additionality suggesting that the level based programme of R&D incentives in the Netherlands is effective in stimulating firms’ investment in R&D. However, the hypothesis of crowding out can be rejected only for small firms. The analysis also indicates that the level based nature of the fiscal incentive scheme leads to a substantial social deadweight loss.     

R&D intensity,firm performance and the identification of the threshold: fresh evidence from the panel threshold regression model

This article tests whether there is an optimal level of research and development (R&D) intensity at which point a firm is able to maximize its performance. An advanced panel threshold regression model is employed to investigate the panel threshold effect of R&D intensity on firm performance among publicly traded Taiwan information technology and electronic firms. The results confirm that a single-threshold effect does exist and show an inverted-U correlation between R&D intensity and firm performance. This article demonstrates that it is possible to identify the definitive level beyond which a further increase in R&D expenditure does not yield proportional rewards. Some important policy implications emerge from the findings.     

R&D and productivity: evidence from large UK establishments with substantial R&D activities

ABSTRACT

We use Office for National Statistics' micro data for large UK establishments in the production industries in the period 1997–2008 to study the relationship between their productivity and the presence of substantial R&D activities, either at the production unit itself, or at other UK reporting units owned by the same enterprise group. We estimate that total factor (revenue) productivity is on average about 14% higher at the establishments which have substantial R&D themselves, compared to those with no R&D. Among the establishments with no R&D themselves, we estimate that productivity is on average about 9% higher at those which belong to enterprise groups which do have substantial R&D elsewhere in the UK in the same sub-sector. For the establishments with substantial R&D themselves, we also estimate a significant positive relationship between current productivity and past R&D expenditure using dynamic specifications which allow for both establishment-specific ‘fixed effects’ and a serially correlated error component.     

New technology adoption in a Cournot oligopoly with spillovers

In a two-stage Cournot oligopoly where a subset of firms first make a choice between two alternative production technologies independently and then all firms compete in quantity, the effect of information spillovers is analyzed when the outcome of R&D is uncertain. It is shown that the range of parameter values that support heterogeneous firms in equilibrium will diminish as information spillovers become larger. Particularly, when the spillover effect is so strong that the investment by one firm is beneficial to its R&D active rivals, all active firms will choose the same technology. A similar result can be derived from a socially desirable point of view except that the cut-off magnitude of spillovers is different. By introducing a positive success probability to characterize the uncertainty of the R&D outcome, it is found that when information spillovers are not too small, there will be underinvestment in equilibrium relative to the social optimum.     

The impact of external R&D financing on innovation process from a supply-demand perspective

This paper sheds light on the effects of two different types of R&D financing sources respectively from a supply-demand combined perspective, namely subsidy from government and venture capital in market, on the innovation process. Our empirical analysis is based on a unique data set of industrial enterprises located in Beijing ZhongGuanCun Science Park during the period 2008–2015. In terms of the two stages of the innovation process, this paper untangles and compares the effects of the two financing sources on R&D input, patent output as well as profit outcome. We find that both supply- and demand-side external R&D financing channels have differential effects on the innovation process in terms of input, output or outcome as well as the different-sized enterprises. Supply-side subsidy tends to be more effective at the front end of the innovation process, while venture capital shows a demand-side consideration on technology evolution by focusing more on the back end of the innovation process. Both government subsidy and venture capital can have a significantly positive impact on the entire innovation process of small and micro enterprises, whereas for large and medium-sized enterprises, subsidy has no significant impact on profit outcome and venture capital can only affect patents positively. These findings suggest that the Chinese government should focus more on small and micro firms and increase such firms’ access to venture capital through a process of certification, so as to achieve an effective combination of government functions and market functions.