Precautionary retirement and precautionary saving

The paper analyzes the lifetime utility maximization problem of an agent who chooses her saving and timing of retirement in the presence of labor income risk in a simple setting where a pure redistributive pension scheme is in place. In this context, a precautionary motive for retirement, which pushes old workers to replace an uncertain labor income with certain pension payments, and to retire early is identified. The conditions for precautionary retirement and saving to arise are then characterized and interpreted in two settings. In the first setting, utility only depends on income, and a sufficiently low level of absolute prudence is necessary for precautionary retirement. A sufficiently high level is necessary however for precautionary saving, which can coexist with precautionary retirement only for intermediate values of absolute prudence. In the second setting, agent utility also depends on leisure, and three conditions allow the precautionary motive for retirement and saving to jointly operate: prudence, an index of absolute prudence sufficiently low and cross-prudence in leisure.     

基于Serendipity“动力-类型”的技术创新失败挽救机制研究

基于Serendipity类型和动力提出技术创新失败挽救机制的16个理论假设，并通过生物制药产业案例进行实证检验。结果表明，技术创新失败挽救有观察者主导的Walpolian型和观察者主导的Merton型两个主流机制，以及理论主导的Merton型、网络主导的Merton型、网络主导的Bushian型和理论主导的Walpolian型4个非主流机制。从挽救动力、类型、动力和类型结合以及挽救机制联合作用等方面对技术创新失败挽救机制进行讨论，最后提出研究结论、理论贡献和未来展望。     

The Competitive Saving Motive: Concept,Evidence, and Implications

This short essay surveys recent literature on the competitive saving motive and its broader economic implications. The competitive saving motive is defined as saving to improve one’s status relative to other competitors for dating and marriage partners. Here are some of the key results of the recent literature: (i) cross-country evidence show that greater gender imbalances tend to correspond with higher savings rates; (ii) household-level evidence suggest that: (a) families with unmarried sons in rural regions with more skewed sex ratios tend to have higher savings rates, while savings rates of families with unmarried daughters appear uncorrelated with gender imbalances; and (b) savings rates of families in cities tend to rise with the local sex ratio; (iii) rising sex ratios contribute nearly half of the rise in housing prices in the People’s Republic of China; and (iv) families with sons in regions of greater sex ratios are more likely to become entrepreneurs and take risky jobs to earn more income.     

Lifestyle conformity and lifecycle saving: a Veblenian perspective

Since the 1950s, the lifecycle hypothesis has been the dominantexplanation for the ‘inverse U’ in household wealthaccumulation. This paper advances an alternative explanation,rooted in the ideas of Veblen, that emphasises the role of lifestyleconformity: Because people tend to adopt lifestyles common totheir social group and modify them in standard ways as theyage, lifecycle norms impart a certain order to the accumulationof assets and liabilities, which enables people to ‘do’lifecycle saving via habitual thinking. After laying out theargument conceptually, the paper provides empirical evidenceon the role of conformity in lifecycle saving and discussesits contribution to the current low saving rate in the USA.     

中国城市居民预防性储蓄及预防性动机强度:1999-2003

中国居民储蓄的超常增长近年来成为一个被普遍关注的问题 ,而居民储蓄动机更是成为人们关注的焦点。一个普遍的看法是 ,预防性储蓄动机在中国居民储蓄决策中起重要作用。本文从标准的消费者预期效用最大化模型出发 ,推导出收入不确定性条件下消费函数的显式解和衡量预防性动机强度的公式 ;然后用我国 3 5个大中城市1 999— 2 0 0 3年的数据进行计量分析 ,结果发现 3 5个大中城市的居民储蓄行为中的确存在预防性动机 ,但预防性动机并非如人们预期的那么强。在对该结果的可能原因进行分析后 ,本文给出了若干政策建议。     

A new interpretation for the precautionary saving motive: a note

This paper proposes a new interpretation for the precautionary saving motive: when future income is uncertain, agents increase saving in order to cause a reduction in the disutility due to uncertainty. Furthermore, the paper shows that the usual necessary and sufficient condition for precautionary saving is the condition ensuring this effect to occur and gives new insights into the relationship between risk aversion indexes and precautionary saving.      

Why Skew Selection, a Model of Parental Exploitation, Should Replace Kin Selection

Synopsis In his 1964 paper, William Hamilton wrote that inclusive fitness trumps direct fitness if, and only if, the effect of interactions among siblings on their parent’s fitness is ‘zero’. Kin selection models have succeeded only because they have ignored the fact that, if an altruist dies saving two siblings, the ‘zero impact on their parent’s fitness’ constraint is violated. Imagine a parent with three offspring. If two offspring drown, parental fitness is 1. On the other hand, if one altruistic offspring dies saving its two drowning siblings, parental fitness doubles to 2. Thus, direct fitness trumps inclusive fitness as an explanation for the evolution of altruism. In other words, parents that produce some portion of altruistic offspring willing to die to save some of their siblings (who would die without the intervention of the altruist) will realize greater fitness than parents producing no altruists. Skew selection, a bioeconomic extension of Michael Ghiselin’s (1974) parental exploitation model, is presented to explain the evolution of altruism from a direct fitness point of view.     

INSTITUTIONAL PRESERVATION AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE

This paper explains and presents supporting evidence for the hypothesis that institutional preservation is the central motive for Federal Reserve decision makers' behavior. Welfare maximization can, under certain conditions (i.e., via a vote maximization motive or the direct attribution of socially desirable goals), be a part of the preservation hypothesis, but it is inconsistent with substantial parts of Federal Reserve behavior. This paper presents evidence of this inconsistent behavior that the preservation hypothesis can explain. Such evidence includes opposing better coordination with voters'choices, creating an internally authorized fund that makes foreign loans without congressional authorization, opposing better monetary control procedures, organizing lobbying campaigns to defeat legislation to audit the Federal Reserve and make its meetings open to public scrutiny, failing to take minutes after legislation was enacted, and impairing information dispersal about funding for the Watergate burglars. The paper analyzes, in terms of institutional preservation, the results of recent research on the relationship of central banks' independence from short-run political forces and their anti-inflationary monetary policies.     

Tariffs, licensing and market structure

This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that exclusive owners of an advanced technology are always better off when producing as a monopolist than when competing against another firm. Competition against a less-efficient firm weakens the power that a host country can exert on the incumbent in the form of its tariff policy. We show that this gives a motive for a monopolist to license its technology to another foreign firm. A host country gains more from increased competition if it can induce the foreign incumbent to transfer technology to the host country firm. We show that the host country can do so by tariff commitment. We also discuss the implications of bargaining under licensing and Bertrand competition in the product market. Hence, this paper qualifies and extends the recent work of Kabiraj and Marjit [Protecting consumers through protection: The role of tariff-induced technology transfer. European Economic Review 47, 113-124].     

中国城镇居民储蓄的影响因素研究:基于三类储蓄动机的实证分析

本文用中国城镇居民1980-2007年的数据,检验了影响居民储蓄行为的三类动机,即生命周期动机、遗赠动机和预防性动机。结果发现这三类储蓄动机都对中国城镇居民的储蓄行为产生影响,其中生命周期储蓄动机是解释中国居民高储蓄率的重要原因,但收入分配差距扩大导致整个社会的遗赠储蓄增加,引起总消费不振。此外,由于居民面临的不确定性增加,中国城镇居民的预防性储蓄动机也随之提高。     

The surprisingly low importance of income uncertainty for precaution

While it is common to use income uncertainty to explain household saving decisions, there is much disagreement about the importance of precautionary saving. This paper suggests that income uncertainty is not an important motive for saving, although households do have other precautionary reasons to save. Using a question from the Survey of Consumer Finances that asks how much households want for precautionary purposes, this paper shows that expressed household preferences, and liquid savings, are much lower than predicted by standard modeling assumptions. Households rarely list unemployment as a reason to save. Perceived income uncertainty does not affect liquid savings or precautionary preferences. Neither does being in an occupation with higher income volatility. Instead, households seem very concerned with expenditure shocks.     

What accounts for the Chilean saving 'miracle'?

This paper examines the recent saving performance of the Chileaneconomy in the light of its long-run (1940–96) trends.The first conclusion that can be derived from the data is thatmost of the increase in private saving since the mid-1980s isdue to business saving. Household saving turns out to be a stationaryvariable with zero mean. Since business saving has a unit root,households do not seem to take the saving of firms into accountwhen making their own saving decisions. Within the theoreticalframework of a model of business investment with liquidity constraints,we estimate a VAR for business saving, private investment, publicsaving and foreign saving (the current account deficit). Weare able to determine that business saving is unaffected bypublic saving, but that, in the long run, foreign saving andbusiness saving are perfect substitutes. Private investment,business saving and foreign saving are jointly determined. Thepolicy conclusions are that policies that stimulate investmentare likely to lead to an increase in private saving, that policiesaimed at raising household saving will be ineffective, and thatincreases in public saving are very powerful for increasingdomestic saving in the long run.     

Precautionary motivation and consumption insurance: Empirical analysis of household consumption behavior in rural China

Based on a household survey in rural China, this paper discusses parameters such as precautionary motive, excess sensitivity, consumption insurance, and inter-temporal substitution in the household consumption function in rural China. The conclusions of the paper indicate that there is a significant precautionary motive in household consumption in rural China, but the function of consumption insurance is very limited, and the consumption is also excessively sensitive to the income change. Such parameters are different among consumers within different groups. __________ Translated from Zhongguo Nongcun Jingji 中国农村经济 (Chinese Rural Economy), 2006, (4): 12–19     

资产专用性与交易成本节约——论企业是信用的载体

企业的功能不仅在于节约要素(中间品)交易成本,是要素的"间接定价装置",还在于节约最终产品交易成本.信息不对称的产品市场上,企业在交易中"制造"了一个重复博弈机制,这使其更关心长远利益.它用自身专用性资产--从价值和数量两个维度--来作为其产品是合格品的担保.专用性资产单位价值越大,数量越多,企业越有谋求长远利益、放弃短期机会主义行为的激励.市场上理性的买方考虑到这一点,总是认为效益越好、规模越大的企业越有可能提供合格品.企业是信用的载体,它一定程度上避免了产品市场由于信息不对称所引致的逆向选择,从而节约最终产品交易成本.我们的分析补充和完善了企业的交易成本理论.     

Health insurance and precautionary saving: A structural analysis

Starr-McCluer (1996) documented an empirical finding showing that US households covered by health insurance saved more than those without coverage, which is inconsistent with the standard consumption–saving theory. This study conducts a structural analysis and suggests that institutional factors, particularly, a social insurance or safety net system and an employment-based health insurance system, can account for this puzzling finding. A dynamic equilibrium model is built that combines these two institutions with heterogeneous agents making endogenous decisions regarding saving, the labor supply and health insurance when they are young. The model, in which agents save in a precautionary manner, can generate Starr-McCluer?s empirical finding. The result implies that Starr-McCluer?s results are not inconsistent with the standard theory of saving under uncertainty, but it does indicate that the standard saving regression model is unable to reveal the precautionary saving motive. Counterfactual experiments are performed to provide implications for empirical analyses.     

Saving and habit formation: evidence from Dutch panel data

This paper focuses on the role of habit formation in individual preferences. In this study, the model of Alessie and Lusardi (Econ Lett 55:103–108, 1997) and its extension by Guariglia and Rossi (Oxf Econ Pap 54:1–19, 2002) are considered. Our empirical specifications are based on their closed-form solutions, where current saving is expressed as a function of lagged saving and other regressors. In our study, we use a longitudinal data set from the Netherlands that allows us to disentangle the role of habit formation from unobserved heterogeneity. Contrary to most other studies using survey data, we find evidence in favor of habit formation. However, the magnitude of the habit formation coefficient is rather small. Income uncertainty seems to affect saving behavior of Dutch households.     

The tradeoff between mortgage prepayments and tax-deferred retirement savings

Many households face the tradeoff between paying an extra dollar off the remaining mortgage on their house and saving that extra dollar in tax-deferred accounts (TDAs) used for retirement. We show that, under certain conditions, it becomes a tax arbitrage to reduce mortgage prepayments and to increase TDA contributions because of the tax deductibility of mortgage interest and tax-exemption of qualified retirement savings. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we document that a significant number of households that are accelerating their mortgage payments instead of saving in TDAs forgo a profitable tax arbitrage opportunity. Finally, we show empirically that this inefficient behavior is unlikely to be driven by liquidity or other financial constraints. Rather, the observed behavior can be attributed to a certain extent to the reluctance of many households to participate in financial markets as either lenders or borrowers.     

CONSUMPTION RESPONSE TO GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS: BEHAVIORAL MOTIVES REVEALED BY SAVERS AND SPENDERS

This article surveyed recipients of one‐off government transfers in Singapore to investigate to what extent different behavioral motives might have affected their consumption response. It also investigates how the recipients' personal characteristics might have affected their consumption response and the appeal of different motives. In the sample surveyed, savers were mostly motivated by precautionary saving, followed by Ricardian equivalence, whereas spenders were mainly driven by rule of thumb and present bias. The bequest motive turned out to be unimportant. Older, better educated, and economically better‐off individuals facing no liquidity constraint were more likely to be savers. (JEL D91, E21, E62, H31)     

Public Policy for Growth and Poverty Reduction

In this paper, I would like to outline an approach to publicpolicy that focused on fighting poverty and is based on an understandingof growth and development. Such a public policy requires answeringtwo key questions. First, what are key determinants of a developmentthat benefits poor people – or what has been labelled"pro-poor growth"? And second, we need to answer the policyquestion: how can public action influence the key determinantswe identify? In putting the questions this way, we are settingourselves the task of building a dynamic public economics –a public economics of development. Given that development isthe objective, this task will require a better understandingof how to measure it. And we must also achieve a better graspof changes of behaviour in the process of development, sincechanging perspectives and behaviour are usually an integralpart of the development story. In laying our task of advancinga dynamic public economics, however, let me emphasise that shouldbe building – on – not overturning – pasttheory. In much of the work I will describe, the empirics seemto be ahead of theory. Thus one of my purposes is to highlightsome elements of an agenda for theoretical research. (JEL E6)     

附加职工安置约束的国企产权拍卖机制研究

The transfer of SOE’s property right involves benefits readjustment of its stakeholders; therefore the design of the trading mechanism is not only to sell the SOE with a high price but also to realize other non-price objectives such as rearrangement of original employees, further development of the enterprise etc. This paper constructs a bidding mechanism with the constraint of accommodating employees to analyze the tradeoff between maximizing SOE auction revenue and minimizing induced unemployment. By adding that the winner is required to settle down a certain quantity of former SOE employees in the new enterprise, this mechanism brings on the competition among prospective investors in both the price and the quantity of employment, which can help the government to balance the different objectives more efficiently. However, the constraint will only work under the condition that the government has stressed sufficiently on the employees’ rearrangement and set the best constraint threshold. Moreover, the government should set an explicit compensation standard for the induced lay-offs to eliminate the investors’ accommodating cost dispersion and introduce more strategic investors with considerable heterogeneity to participate in the bidding. __________ Translated from Jingji yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2007, (10):115–125