Income, income inequality, and health: Evidence from China

This paper tests using survey data from China whether individual health is associated with income and community-level income inequality. Although poor health and high inequality are key features of many developing countries, most of the earlier literature has drawn on data from developed countries in studying the association between the two. We find that self-reported health status increases with per capita income, but at a decreasing rate. Controlling for per capita income, we find an inverted-U association between self-reported health status and income inequality, which suggests that high inequality in a community poses threats to health. We also find that high inequality increases the probability of health-compromising behavior such as smoking and alcohol consumption. Most of our findings are robust to different measures of health status and income inequality. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 668–693.     

Finance and inequality: Channels and evidence

We provide a framework to interpret the recent literature on financial development and inequality. In many developing countries, access to funding and financial services by firms and households is still very skewed. Recent evidence suggests that poor access does not only reflect economic constraints but also barriers erected by insiders. Inequality affects the distribution of political influence, so financial regulation often is easily captured by established interests in unequal countries. Captured reforms deepen rather than broaden access, as small elites obtain most of the benefits while risks are socialized. Financial liberalization motivated to increase access may in practice increase fragility and inequality, and lead to political backlash against reforms. Thus financial reforms may succeed only if matched by a buildup in oversight institutions. Journal of Comparative Economics 35 (4) (2007) 748–773.     

Which Regional Inequality? The Evolution of Rural–Urban and Inland–Coastal Inequality in China from 1983 to 1995

This paper develops a unified empirical framework for describing the relative contribution of rural–urban and inland–coastal inequality to overall regional inequality in China during the 1980's and 1990's. The framework assesses rural–urban and inland–coastal inequalities from the same data set, presents results for a sufficiently long time period to transcend short-term fluctuations, allows for differential price changes, and applies a consistent notion of the contribution to inequality using a decomposition analysis. While the contribution of rural–urban inequality is much higher than that of inland–coastal inequality in terms of levels, the trend is very different. The rural–urban contribution has not changed very much over time, but the inland–coastal contribution has increased by several fold. The paper ends by investigating the role of labor migration in this outcome. J. Comp. Econom., December 1999, 27(4), pp. 686–701. Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, 309 Warren Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853; International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006.     

Substantive Rationality and Backward Induction

S. Modica and A. Rustichini (1994, Theory and Decision37, 107–124) provided a logic for reasoning about knowledge where agents may be unaware of certain propositions. However, their original approach had the unpleasant property that nontrivial unawareness was incompatible with partitional information structures. More recently, Modica and Rustichini (1999, Games Econ. Behav.27, 265–298) have provided an approach that allows for nontrivial unawareness in partitional information structures. Here it is shown that their approach can be viewed as a special case of a general approach to unawareness considered by R. Fagin and J. Y. Halpern (1988, Artificial Intelligence34, 39–76). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D80, D83.     

Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain

This paper studies a class of models developed by R. M. Townsend (1983, J. Polit. Econ.91, 546–588) and T. J. Sargent (1991, J. Econom. Dynam. Control15, 245–273). These models feature dynamic signal extraction problems and an infinite regress in expectations. This paper uses frequency domain methods to compute an analytical solution to the fixed point problem posed by the infinite regress in expectations. The advantage of a frequency domain approach vis-à-vis a time domain approach derives from the fact that these models produce equilibria with non-fundamental moving average representations, in which market observations do not reveal the underlying shocks to agents' information sets. As a result, decision rules contain moving average components that are more easily handled in the frequency domain than in the time domain.     

Evolution in Finitely Repeated Coordination Games

I apply a version of Kandori et al. (1993, Econometrica, 61, 29–56) and Young's (1993, Econometrica, 61, 57–84) evolutionary dynamic to finitely repeated coordination games. The dynamic is modified by allowing mutations to affect only off path beliefs. I find that repetition within a match leads agents to sacrifice current payoffs in order to increase payoffs in later stages. As a consequence, evolution leads to (almost) efficiency. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: C79.     

Poverty, inequality, and growth in urban China, 1986–2000

Although urban China has experienced spectacular income growth over the last two decades, increases in inequality, reduction in social welfare provision, deregulation of grain prices, and increases in income uncertainty in the 1990s have increased urban poverty. Using a large repeated cross section household survey from 1986 to 2000, this study maps the changes in income, inequality, and poverty over the fifteen-year period and investigates the determinants of poverty. We find that the increase in poverty in the 1990s is associated with the increase in the relative food price and the need to purchase items that were previously provided free or at highly subsidized prices by the state, i.e., education, housing and medical care. In addition, the increased saving rate of poor households, which is due to an increase in income uncertainty, contributes significantly to the increase in poverty measured in terms of expenditure. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 710–729.     

Why the rich may favor poor protection of property rights

In unequal societies, the rich may benefit from shaping economic institutions in their favor. This paper analyzes the dynamics of institutional subversion by focusing on the public protection of property rights. If this institution functions imperfectly, agents have incentives to invest in private protection of property rights. The ability to maintain private protection systems makes the rich natural opponents of public property rights and precludes grass-roots demand to drive the development of the market-friendly institution. The economy becomes stuck in a bad equilibrium with low growth rates, high inequality of income, and wide-spread rent-seeking. The Russian oligarchs of 1990s, who controlled large stakes of newly privatized property, provide motivation for this paper. Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4) (2003) 715–731.     

Evolution and Mixed Strategies

Selten (1980, J. Theoret. Biol., 84, 93–101) showed that no mixed equilibria are evolutionarily stable when players can condition their strategies on their roles in a game. Alternatively, Harsanyi's (1973, Int. J. Game Theory, 2, 1–23) purification argument implies that all mixed equilibria are approximations of strict, and hence evolutionarily stable, equilibria of games with slightly perturbed payoffs. This paper reconciles these results: Approximations of mixed equilibria have high invasion barriers, and hence are likely to persist, when payoff perturbations are relatively important and role identification is relatively noisy. When payoff perturbations are unimportant and role identification is precise, approximations of mixed equilibria will have small invasion barriers and are unlikely to persist. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C70, C78.     

Rural Industrialization and Increasing Inequality: Emerging Patterns in China′s Reforming Economy

This paper′s goal is to increase the understanding of the inequality trends during the postreform period in China. It uses a rigorous, inference-based procedure to demonstrate that inequality among the counties in an east coast province registered statistically significant increases between 1984 and 1989. Decomposition analysis reveals that the changing patterns of inequality were closely associated with the changes in the structure of the rural economy. In particular, policies that increased the importance of agriculture in the economy led to a reduction in inequality; those that stimulated the expansion of rural industry gave rise to greater inequality. One explanation is that barriers keep outputs, inputs, and information from flowing among regions, leading to higher inequality. J. Comp. Econom., December 1994, 19(3), pp. 362-391. Food Research Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305-6084.     

Migration and rural poverty in China

We analyze two complementary household datasets from China's poor areas to examine whether the poor migrate and whether migration helps the poor. We find an inverted-U-shaped relationship between household endowments and the likelihood of migration. Over time, the poor are more likely to migrate. Using household panel data and taking prior village migration networks as an instrument, we find that having a migrant increases a household's income per capita by 8.5 to 13.1 percent, but that the overall impact on poverty is modest because most poor people do not migrate. Migrants remit a large share of their income and the amount of these remittances is responsive somewhat to the needs of other family members. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 688–709.     

Are Public and Private Social Expenditures Complementary?

Most analyses of social protection are focussed on public arrangements. However, social effort is not restricted to the public domain; all kinds of private arrangements can be substitutes to public programs. OECD data indicate that accounting for private social benefits has an equalising effect on levels of social effort across a number of countries. This suggests complementarity between public and private social expenditures. But their distributional effects differ. Using cross-country data, we find a negative relationship between net public social expenditures and income inequality, but a positive relationship between net private social expenditures and income inequality. We conclude that changes in the public/private mix in the provision of social protection may affect the redistributive impact of the welfare state.Part of Leiden Social Security Incidence Project. Revised version of a paper presented at the 57th International Atlantic Economic Conference, Lisbon, Portugal (March 10–14, 2004), and at the 60th Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance, Milan, Italy (August 23–26, 2004). The usual disclaimer applies.     

How and why transition made income inequality increase in urban Russia: A local study

Using sample surveys from the city of Taganrog in 1989 and 2000, we investigate household income, its composition, and its distribution in urban Russia. Income inequality increased greatly as real income at the lowest part of the distribution decreased considerably. Earnings are more concentrated in the upper part of the income distribution in 2000 than in 1989. For many households, public transfers, allowances, private transfers, or subsidiary earned income prevented income from falling further. However, Russia did not inherit from its Soviet past an efficient progressive tax system or programs to protect jobless workers and households facing severe drops in income. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 772–787.     

The Role of Absolute Continuity in “Merging of Opinions” and “Rational Learning”

D. Blackwell and L. Dubins (1962, Ann. Math. Statist.38, 882–886) showed that opinions merge when priors are absolutely continuous. E. Kalai and E. Lehrer (1993, Econometrica61, 1019–1045) use this result to show that players in a repeated game eventually play like a Nash equilibrium. We provide an alternative proof of merging of opinions that clarifies the role of absolute continuity while casting doubt on the relevance of the result. Persistent disagreement, the opposite of merging, allows the construction of a sequence of mutually favorable “bets.” By a law of large numbers, both agents are certain they will win these bets on average. This certain disagreement violates absolute continuity. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C11, C69, C72, D83.     

Benefit and Distance Functions

We explore the relationship between R. W. Shephard's input distance function (“Cost and Production Functions,” Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, 1953) and D. G. Luenberger's benefit function (J. Math. Econ.21(1992a), 461–481). We point out that the latter can be recognized in a production context as a directional input distance function which can exhaustively characterize technologies in both price and input space. D. McFadden's (Cost, revenue, and profit functions,in“Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Applications, “North-Holland/Elsevier, New York, 1978) composition rules for input sets and input distance functions are then extended to the directional input distance function.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers : D21, D24, D29.     

Private Value Allocations in Large Economies with Differential Information

We consider a Radner-type (e.g., Radner, 1968, Econometrica36, 31–58) pure exchange economy with differential information and a continuum of agents. We show that under appropriate assumptions the set of Aumann–Shapley private value allocations in such an economy coincides with the set of Radner competitive equilibrium allocations. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C71, D51, D82.     

Projecting soviet energy requirements using a vintage capital model

A Solow-type vintage capital model with capital utilization is used to estimate the long-term average embedded rate of improvement in energy efficiency of Soviet fixed-capital commissionings: 2.6% per year. The results are combined with planned Soviet capital stock growth to forecast cap Soviet energy requirements through 1990. The implied Soviet capital utilization goals call for greater energy savings than have been achieved in the past. The results also identify an upper bound for rates of hidden inflation contained in Soviet capital commissionings data. It appears an estimate such as S. Cohn's 1% (Soviet Stud. 33, 2:269–299, 1981) is far more likely than A. Nove's 6 to 7% (Soviet Stud. 33, 1:142–145, 198 1).     

CEO turnover, firm performance, and enterprise reform in China: Evidence from micro data

In this paper, we use unique data on China's listed firms from 1998 to 2002 to show that CEO turnover is significantly and inversely related to firm performance, although the magnitude of the relationship is modest. In addition, we find that this turnover-performance link is weaker for listed firms that are still controlled by the state and those that have a relatively weak non-state controlling shareholder. In contrast, the appointment of independent directors enhances the turnover-performance link. Moreover, the listing suspension mechanism, adopted by China's securities regulatory agency, appears to be effective in improving the turnover-performance tie. Finally, listed firms with CEOs holding additional positions among the controlling shareholders have a weaker turnover-performance link. Journal of Comparative Economics 34 (4) (2006) 796–817.     

Public support for creating a market economy in Eastern Europe

Employing two large databases, we analyze the determinants of public support for the creation of a market economy in Eastern Europe. From a macroeconomic perspective inflation, unemployment, privatization, and enterprise restructuring reduce this support; alternatively, democratization, the creation of working financial markets, and foreign aid per capita increase support for the market. Across countries, higher inequality undermines market support. From a microeconomic perspective, labor market status, both the objective and the subjective economic situations of a person, political orientation, and the socio-demographic background of the respondent affect support for the market economy. For example, unemployed, relatively poor, older, female, and less-educated respondents living in rural areas are less inclined to favor the creation of a market economy. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 720–744.