Marxist Theories of Crisis and the Current Economic Crisis

Abstract

This paper uses data from the US economy and finds that among Marxist theories of crisis the marxian law of the falling rate of profit as a result of the increasing composition of capital explains the crisis of the 1970s and the end of the “golden age” of capital accumulation. Despite the dramatic increase in the rate of surplus value and the limited fall in the capital-output ratio profitability has not recovered sufficiently during the neoliberal period due to the survival of lagging capitals and the increasing use of unproductive labor. Financialization is one of the effects of low profitability. In the recent years financial bubbles the associated wealth effects and the significant increase in the debt of all domestic sectors raised aggregate demand and provided the stimulus for the anemic growth of the period. The break of the bubbles implies the return to the weak fundamentals of the real economy and possibly a deep and prolonged period of stagnation and crisis.     

Unproductive labour,capital accumulation and profitability crisis in the Greek economy

The focus of this paper is on the evolution of the major macroeconomic variables of classical political economy and the contrast with their orthodox counterparts in the quest to identify the causes of the current crisis in the Greek economy. Our analysis shows that declining profitability past a certain point leads to a stagnant mass of real net profits that discourage investment and increase unemployment. More specifically, for the period 1970–2007 for which we have detailed data, we identify the so-called silent depression of the 1970s and early 1980s, the new golden age of accumulation during which the capitalization of the production process led to a rapidly growing productivity and with stagnant or slowly rising real wages increased the rate of surplus value to new heights. As a consequence, the rate of profit from the mid-1980s onwards displayed a mildly rising trend and remained at a much lower level than that of the early 1970s. The rate of profit starts to fall after 2007, the year of the onset of the (world) economic crisis, and this continues up to 2014. Our econometric analysis based on an ARDL model further shows that the incremental rate of return, a variable derived from, and therefore strictly related to the average rate of profit, constitutes a by far more concrete measure of profitability and, in combination with the real interest rate, shapes the process of capital accumulation.     

隐含资本成本估计方法的适用性问题——以中国上市公司为例

隐含资本成本对于金融投资决策和资产估值有着极为重要的意义,隐含资本成本的测算方法具有避免标准资产定价模型估计公司层面资本成本的误差问题、不依赖于传统资产定价模型的设定以及信息含量丰富等特点。本文梳理和比较了隐含资本成本的八类估计方法,并采用中国上市公司的数据进行了实际测度。单变量的相关性检验,支持OJN、GGM、CT三种方法对隐含资本成本估测的效果更好的判断;多元回归分析显示,GGM和CT两种方法的计量结果较为理想,能更准确地反映风险,并可作为预期收益的无偏估计。     

统一利润率与差别利润率——兼论两种均衡体系的比较

瓦尔拉斯把资本形成方程引入一般均衡体系后出现了内在的不一致性,从而在异质资本品的假设下,一般均衡体系只存在“差别利润率”。在斯拉法体系中,不同的资本品部门却拥有“统一利润率”。两种类型的利润率体现了两种均衡体系的对立。与“差别利润率”相联系的一般均衡体系只研究一般生产过程中的资源配置,体现技术关系;而与“统一利润率”相对应的斯拉法体系则涉及特定市场经济关系下的总量分配,体现社会关系。而后者才可以更好地解释市场经济中的现实问题。     

资本流动性的测量——基于资本流动性结构分析

首先对资本流动性进行了概念界定,认为资本流动性即为资本流入流出占一国国民生产总值的比值,并对几种测量资本流动性的方法进行了简要评述。在总量规模法的基础上运用直接测算法、间接测算法、克莱因测算法、非直接投资净额调整法测量了我国的资本流动性。结合对我国资本流动性结构特征的变化的分析,发现直接投资的流动性稳步下降,证券投资和其他投资的流动性为上升趋势,而总资本流动性呈震荡上升趋势。其中,在不考虑资本外逃时,其他投资对总资本的流动性变化起到主要作用。     

中国人力资本收益不足的症结分析

加大人力资本投资对发展中国家的市场化建设和经济增长将起到积极的促进作用。虽然中国人力资本投资不断加大，但人力资本收益却不高，其原因主要有分工演进不足导致人力资本投资浪费以及粗放型生产方式使人力资本成为弱势要素。所以，应加深分工水平的横向和纵向发展，加强集约型生产建设，提高中国人力资本收益。     

Capital Openness and Financial Crises: A Financial Contagion Model with Multiple Equilibria

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of capital openness on financial crises and contagion. In the model, we analyze four channels of contagion involved in the process of financial crisis: monsoon effects, spillovers, self‐fulfilling expectations and new information. We empirically test the data from China, an economy with capital account controls, and find that the fundamentals of China (PRC) are now in a vulnerable area which yields multiple equilibria. Consequently, the Chinese economy is easily affected via the channels discussed in this paper. Finally we suggest that the capital account of China should be opened gradually.     

Estimates of Capital Stock and Capital/Output Coefficients by Industries: Korea (1953–86)

This paper constructs a polynomial-benchmark model to estimate gross and net capital stocks by explicity estimating implicit retirement rates and depreciation rates. The model is applied to Korean data (1953–86) where such data as national wealth survey, national income accounts and industrial census are available. There alternative series of capital stock estimates are generated and compared with previous estimates. It is shown that the use of a pure perpetual-inventory model or a benchmark-year method alone may introduce a significant bias in the measurement of capital stocks for developing economies.     

人力资本向下兼容性及其对跨国收入水平核算的意义

本文将人力资本的向下兼容性考虑到人力资本总量的度量当中,提出了一种比传统人力资本加总方法更加一般化的方法。利用本文得到的人力资本总量,我们还进行了跨国收入水平核算。与Klenow和Rodriguez Clare( 1 997)、Hall和Jones( 1 999)以及近几年研究的主要结论相反,本文的结论是人力资本和物质资本对于跨国收入差异的贡献与生产率的贡献相比是主要的。本文的贡献主要有两方面,一是提出了一种更加一般化的人力资本加总方法,二是使我们对造成跨国收入巨大差异原因的认识又回到了Mankiw ,RomerandWeil( 1 992 )的著名论断,从而回应了Klenow和Rodriguez Clare( 1 997)、Hall和Jones( 1 999)以及近几年研究对Mankiw ,RomerandWeil ( 1 992 )的批评,有力地支持了“新古典复兴”。     

Inequality,Redistribution, and the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts for Austria

In this paper, we provide novel findings regarding the distributional effects of the global financial and economic crisis and how redistribution operated during this time, using detailed data for Austria. We construct distributional national accounts for the period 2004–2016 by combining survey data, tabulated tax data, and detailed national accounts data. The comprehensive data set allows us to analyze the distribution of macroeconomic income growth across the income distribution and to explore the evolution of income inequality over time. Our results suggest that as the distribution of growth changed over time, this had considerable repercussions for inequality, which started to decline at the very beginning of the economic and financial crisis, but increased again after 2012. We find that capital income largely determined both the level and the dynamics of income inequality. Government spending was found to play a key role for redistributive effects across the income distribution. In particular, in-kind transfers redistributed pre-tax income to a large extent. Our results show further that individuals with lower educational levels and younger individuals faced negative growth in pre-tax income over the years and also benefited considerably from redistribution.     

Investment and the rate of profit in a financial context: the French case

The growth regime prevailing in France since the middle of the 1980s allowed for a recovery of profitability, yet without durable resumption of growth or accumulation of fixed capital. The financialization of this growth regime shows on both the asset and liability sides of the balance sheets. Following a post‐Keynesian framework, we analyse and test the main determinants of real investment and financial capital accumulation for non‐financial companies in France, based on data from the flow‐of‐funds accounts. This analysis points to an arbitrage, prevailing between real and financial accumulation, as a key reason explaining the insufficient recovery of investment.     

中国资本管制有效性动态研究:1982-2008

文章综合利用储蓄一投资相关性检验法、Edwayds-Kahn模型法、资本管制强度测度以及抵补利率平价4种方法分别从实体经济、货币经济、法律框架以及短期资本套利动机等角度对1982-2008年期间我国资本管制的有效性进行了评估,并侧重讨论了现阶段我国资本管制是否失效的问题.研究结论显示:自1982年以来,我国的资本管制政策短期内基本有效,但随着国内经济的进一步开放和管制政策的逐步放开,资本流动性逐渐提高,资本管制的有效性呈下降趋势;2007年以来虽然存在大量短期资本流入流出的现象,但我国的资本管制仍然对国际资本流动具有明显的抑制作用.     

国际金融危机背景下西方学者的资本主义危机理论及启示

资本主义危机理论一直是国外马克思主义学者关注的焦点。在资本主义发展的不同时期,他们对于资本主义危机的理解也有所不同。2008年金融危机的爆发,迫使一些西方学者摒弃以往传统的经济视角,转而寻求新的研究范式来解读资本主义的危机,这一时期备受关注的危机理论有:体制危机论,福利国家危机论和资本主义总体性危机论。总体来看,随着资本主义社会的发展,西方学者不再从单一视角出发研究资本主义危机,不再将资本主义危机单纯理解为经济危机,而是趋向多元化的理解。     

西方金融资本主义下的寄生阶级、债务通缩与大萧条——兼评迈克尔·赫德森的金融资本主义批判理论

金融资本生成于产业资本、商业资本和银行资本的垄断融合。在支配生产、流通和信用的基础上,金融资本通过定价权、金融投机、地租寻租、支配国债、滥用货币发行权等途径而建立一套寄生性的积累机制。随着金融资本对生产关系的全面支配,金融资本的寄生性积累也越来越系统化、自主化,造成的社会危机也越来越不容易从外部加以克服,但同时,金融资本内部自我否定的逻辑却表现得越来越强烈。金融资本的寄生性积累导致债务膨胀和产业萎缩相互加强的危机,即债务通缩危机。新自由主义量化宽松的反通缩政策,在一定程度上避免了旧版大萧条,却导致了更难以解决的新版大萧条。美国学者赫德森把对金融资本寄生性积累的批判纳入到从古典政治经学到马克思主义政治经济学的传统中,从金融资本的寄生性积累探讨西方经济、政治危机的根源,虽然其金融资本批判理论还因缺乏辩证逻辑而有一定的缺点,但是该理论基本的理论方向是值得肯定的。     

Capital Market Openness and Output Volatility

In this paper, using data from 21 advanced and 81 developing countries during 1971–2010, we empirically examine the impact of capital market openness on output volatility. We find that opening of capital markets increases the output volatility of developing countries. Furthermore, we find that the main channel through which capital market openness increases volatility is currency and external‐debt crisis. Finally, we find that while Asian countries are less likely to experience a crisis, they become even more unstable than other developing countries once a crisis occurs. Our evidence strengthens the case for caution in developing countries' opening up of their capital markets.     

THE TREATMENT OF STOCK APPRECIATION IN THE MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL INCOME*

In the latest official national income publication the Australian Commonwealth Statistician has altered the treatment of stock appreciation in the measurement of national income at current prices. Previously, stock appreciation had been included in both national expenditure and national product. Now the amount of stock appreciation (the difference between the change in the value of stocks and the value of the change in stocks) has been deducted from investment in stocks, and consequently national expenditure, and from trading incomes, and consequently national income. The former procedure (including stock appreciation in national expenditure and national product) had been advocated by the present author, when editor of the first official national income publications issued by the Commonwealth Statistician. In this note an attempt is made to set out the reasons for this view. A new approach is also suggested for handling the item of stock appreciation in national income accounts, which does not rest on the assumption that stock appreciation is a capital gain which should be excluded from trading incomes and national product.     

教育人力资本、健康人力资本与地区经济增长差异——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

在M-R-W增长模型框架下,将人力资本的内涵扩展至教育和健康两个方面。用教育收益率修正了教育人力资本指标,而健康则主要从投入角度加以测度。应用传统的固定效应模型和动态面板模型(DGMM)估计教育人力资本、健康人力资本对地区经济差异的影响。结果显示,人力资本促使全国省际间人均GDP增长出现明显的"俱乐部"收敛现象,而三大地区内部的经济增长则表现出条件收敛趋势。从教育人力资本产出弹性可以看出,东部地区经济增长的驱动力正从物质资本向人力资本方向转变。以每万人拥有床位数代表的健康人力资本促进了全国及区域范围内的经济增长。     

Regional and Global Responses to the Asian Crisis

This paper examines how economic policy-making changed as a result of the Asian crisis of 1997–1998, in the countries affected, in the region, and at the global level. It is perhaps surprising how little change has occurred in the broad approach to economic policy, but there is a much greater awareness of the vulnerabilities posed by large international capital flows. The broad tenets of the Washington Consensus, with its market-based policies, remain in place, but there is a recognition that well-functioning markets require complex institutions, rules, and procedures, and that these take time and effort to develop. Most of this institutional development will have to take place at the national level, but regional arrangements can offer support, and multilateral agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund, have learned from the crisis.     

Applying the Lessons of Asia: The IMF's Crisis Management Strategy following the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

The paper reviews the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) non-concessional lending programs following the global financial crisis, with a view to understanding how the IMF applied the lessons of the Asian crisis in designing its approach to crisis management. For this purpose, the paper focuses on the 2008 programs in Hungary, Iceland, Latvia and Ukraine – the first of its kind since the early 2000s – and compares them with the 1997 programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand. Our analysis finds the European programs better funded and their structural conditionality more focused. Other than these, the overall thrust of the programs was similar: fiscal and monetary tightening, coupled with banking reforms. The real difference was not so much about content but about philosophy. Relative to the Asian programs, the European programs were characterized by more emphasis on ownership, greater collaboration among stakeholders, more realistic assumptions and greater transparency about the risks and the logic of policy actions, and more built-in flexibility of targets and policy options. This approach to crisis management incorporated the changes that had been made since the Asian crisis in the IMF's policies and procedures to manage capital account crises more effectively.     

Estimates of China capital input index by industries (1981–2000)

The purpose of this paper is to report estimates of capital input index classified by industries in China from 1981 to 2000. We estimate capital stock based on the perpetual inventory method, and then estimate the flow of capital service and capital service price consistently with the capital compensation in input-output table. In our study, we discuss various assumptions and adjustments made on the data and estimation implementation.