股权资本成本估算方法研究

一、股权资本成本估算方法 1．资本资产定价模型（Capital Asset Pri Cing Model）资本资产定价模型是由夏普（William Sharpe）和林特纳（John Lintner）在1965年前后以马柯维茨（Marry．A．Markowit）的资产组合理论提出的,简称为CAPM模型。该模型建立在税收和交易费用忽略不计、在无风险利率R的水平下无限制地借入或贷出资金等一系列假设条件下。是目前估计股权资本成本时,使用最广泛的一种方法。按照该模型：     

金融资产定价异常与资产定价模型的扩展——基于委托-代理理论视角的研究

对于金融资产定价异常现象,本文基于信息角度将信息不对称分为可识别的逆向选择效应、可识别的道德风险效应、不可识别的逆向选择效应和不可识别的道德风险效应四个部分,并在此基础上利用委托-代理理论对资产模型进行了扩展,得出了信息不对称下扩展的资产定价和代理成本资产定价模型。进而论证了动态资产定价模型、羊群效应资本资产定价模型与FF三因素模型只是扩展的资本资产定价模型的一个特例,从而为动态资产定价模型,羊群效应资本资产定价模型与FF三因素模型提供了微观基础。     

基于效用成本风险异质性的消费资本资产定价模型

资产定价既是现代金融的核心,也是许多困惑之所在,其中最著名的就是股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜。本文对消费资本资产定价模型中的效用成本做了重新思考,引入"效用成本风险异质性"的概念,并将效用成本区分为"消费效用成本"和"风险效用成本"。在此基础上,本文提出了消费资本资产定价模型的新形式,并对股权溢价之谜和无风险利率之谜进行解释。     

关于中国股权风险溢价估计方法的探讨

资本资产定价模型对于传统金融学的最重要贡献就是对风险资产找到了定价依据,即相对于无风险资产,作为资本资产定价模新重要变量之一的风险溢价,如果其存在着理论模型不能说明的异常数值。在众多解释中,对估计方法的修正是非常重要的一类。     

股权资本成本估算方法研究

一、股权资本成本估算方法 1.资本资产定价模型(Capital Asset Pricing Model) 资本资产定价模型是由夏普(WilliamSharpe)和林特纳(John Lintner)在1965年前后以马柯维茨(Marry.A.Markowit)的资产组合理论提出的,简称为CAPM模型.     

基于上海股市的资本资产定价模型的实证检验

鉴于资本资产定价模型对资产评估和资本定价的作用,以上海股票市场为对象,选取上证180指数中178家股票的相关数据,运用计量经济学的方法进行相关的资本资产定价模型的实证检验。结果显示:上海股票市场存在较大的投机行为,资本资产定价模型在上海股票市场还不适用,对于上海股票市场股票的定价还存在一定的困难。并就结论出现的原因给予了相关的解释。     

资本资产定价模型与风险中性定价理论的比较

资本资产定价模型只考虑系统风险，并假定非系统风险可以通过多样化消除。资本资产定价模型是在真实世界中给风险资产定价。风险中性的世界是一个假想的世界，在风险中性的世界中所有风险资产的预期收益率等于无风险收益率。资本资产定价模型可以用无套利的方法得到。     

近期实证研究对CAPM理论的质疑与一个模型修正

关于Sharpe的资本资产定价模型(CAPM),长期存在着实证研究对它的质疑,其原因主要是资本资产定价模型的一组假设条件过于苛刻而远离市场实际.自Fama以来至今,很多基于不同市场的实证研究都不能很好的支持Sharpe的CAPM模型理论.近期,美国New Orieans大学的Edward M·Miller将投资者的无偏估计这一条件放宽,通过对投资者之间关于收益估计偏离的分析,得到一种关于投资收益与股票价格变化的新解释,并初步将这种偏离进行量化后,给出了一个对Sharpe理论的修正模型.     

创值与资本资产定价——非流通股定价分析

全流通成为我国证券市场急待解决的难题。全流通的关键问题在于非流通股的定价。文章从资本成本与收益的根源出发,引入创值概念建立了一种新的资本资产定价模型,结合上市公司各类股东的历史出资价值状况,给出了包括分红和再融资等各种情形在内的非流通股的定价模型。之后,进行了实证分析。对沪、深两市46只有代表性股票的非流通股进行了定价,结果是令人兴奋的。     

企业投资决策中折现率的确定

本文运用Ｍ＆Ｍ理论和资本资产定价模型来计算一个投资项目所需资本的加权平均成本,并将其作为折现率对该项目进行评价     

A portfolio approach to climate investments: CAPM and endogenous risk

Is there a role for investments in climate change mitigation despite low expected return? We use a model of intertemporal expected utility maximisation to analyse this question. Similar to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) the rate of return depends on the correlation of risk between the return on investments in climate change mitigation and the market portfolio, but in contrast to the classical CAPM we admit the fact that economic and environmental systems are jointly determined, implying that environmental risk is endogenous. Therefore, investments in climate change mitigation may reduce risk via self-protection and self-insurance. If risk reduction is accounted for in cost–benefit evaluations, climate investments may be justified despite low expected return. These aspects of climate investments are not, however, communicated via standard cost–benefit analyses of climate policy. Optimal climate policy may therefore be more ambitious than previously considered.     

THE PUZZLING DIVERGENCE OF RENTS AND USER COSTS, 1980–2004

This paper demonstrates that, in the context of U.S. housing data, rents and ex ante user costs diverge markedly—in both growth rates and levels—for extended periods of time, a seeming failure of arbitrage and a puzzle from the perspective of standard capital theory. The tremendous volatility of even appropriately‐smoothed ex ante annual user cost measures implies that such measures are unsuitable for inclusion in official price statistics. The divergence holds not only at the aggregate level, but at the metropolitan‐market level as well, and is robust across different house price and rent measures. But transactions costs matter: the large persistent divergences did not imply the presence of unexploited profit opportunities. In particular, even though detached housing is readily moved between owner and renter markets, and the detached‐unit rental market is surprisingly thick, transactions costs would have prevented risk‐neutral investors from earning expected profits by buying a property to rent out for a year, and would have prevented risk‐neutral homeowners from earning expected profits by selling their homes and becoming renters for a year. Finally, computing implied appreciation as a residual yields a house price forecast with huge errors; but either longer‐horizon or no‐real‐capital‐gains forecasts—which turn out to have similar forecast errors—imply a far less divergent user cost measure which might ultimately be useful for official price statistics. Some conjectures are offered.     

Liquidity-adjusted conditional capital asset pricing model

This paper derives a liquidity-adjusted conditional two-moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and a liquidity-adjusted conditional three-moment CAPM respectively based on theory of stochastic discount factor. The liquidity-adjusted conditional two-moment CAPM shows that a security's conditional expected excess return consists of three parts: its conditional expected liquidity cost, the systemic risk premium and the liquidity risk premium. The liquidity-adjusted conditional three-moment CAPM shows that a security's conditional expected excess return depends on its conditional expected liquidity cost, the conditional covariance between its return and the market return, the conditional covariance between its liquidity cost and the market liquidity cost, and the conditional coskewness of its return and the market return.     

诉讼风险、资金持有与企业资产配置

本文以企业的固定资产和金融资产配置为切入点,选用2001—2015年所有A股非金融类上市公司的诉讼数据,实证检验了诉讼风险对企业资产配置决策的影响。结果表明,诉讼风险对企业资产配置具有负向调节作用,尤其显著缩减了金融资产的配置规模和比例;诉讼风险对非国有企业及中西部地区企业资产配置的冲击更为明显;诉讼风险的作用机理是资金削弱效应,即减少内部可用现金流和提高外部可融资金成本。本文的研究为我国市场经济法制建设的完善和企业投融资决策提供了启示。     

THE RISK PREMIUM FOR EQUITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR RESOURCE ALLOCATION,WELFARE AND POLICY*

Analysis of the equity premium puzzle has focused on private sector capital markets. The object of this paper is to consider the welfare and policy implications of each of the broad classes of explanations of the equity premium puzzle. As would be expected, the greater the deviation from the first‐best outcome implied by a given explanation of the equity premium puzzle, the more interventionist are the implied policy conclusions. Nevertheless, even explanations of the equity premium puzzle consistent with a general consumption‐based asset pricing model have important welfare and policy implications.     

Asset pricing in a production economy with Chew–Dekel preferences

In this paper we provide a thorough characterization of the asset returns implied by a simple general equilibrium production economy with Chew–Dekel risk preferences and convex capital adjustment costs. When households display levels of disappointment aversion consistent with the experimental evidence, a version of the model parameterized to match the volatility of output and consumption growth generates unconditional expected asset returns and price of risk in line with the historical data. For the model with Epstein–Zin preferences to generate similar statistics, the relative risk aversion coefficient needs to be about 55, two orders of magnitude higher than the available estimates. We argue that this is not surprising, given the limited risk imposed on agents by a reasonably calibrated stochastic growth model.     

Does price uncertainly really reduce private investment? A small model applied to Chile

The recent literature emphasizes the negative impact of price uncertainly on private investment as result of a higher risk premium-the price to wait. This paper argues that the uncertainly concerning the cost of capital should be compared with uncertainly in the price of output. Using a simple analytical model, we conclude that the efficiency of policies aimed to reduce the price of capital, or the basic accelator between investment and output growth, may be enhanced if(1)the volatility of the output price is greater than the volatility of the cost of capital,and(2)there is a positive correlation between changes in the cost of capital prices. In both cases, private investment will be more responsive beacuse firms will minimize profit flutuations. In the second part of the paper, the model is applied to the case of chile over the 1980–90 period. This country has earned earned the reputation of being the ‘sucess story’ of Structural adjustment and has acheived fairly stable growth in the past eight years.     

信息披露、透明度与资本成本

信息披露对公司权益资本成本影响的研究对上市公司与监管机构都有着非常深刻的意义 ,然而披露水平与权益资本成本之间的联系往往并不明确 ,特别是在发展中国家。本文运用 2 0 0 2年前在上海证券交易所上市的 51 6家公司数据 ,检验了上市公司权益资本成本与其自愿披露水平的关系。在控制了公司规模与财务风险变量之后 ,本文结论显示 :上市公司信息披露水平的提高有助于降低公司的权益资本成本     

An empirical note on bond-yield uncertainty and the demand for money

This paper empirically tests the effect of bond-yield uncertainty on the demand for money, as implied by the capital theory approach to the demand for money, suggested by Friedman and Tobin. It is expected that the demand for money is affected not only by the yield on bonds (which are a substitute asset), but it also in increasing function of their risk. The empirical tests, which employ two alternative measures of uncertainty (mean of squared deviations from the average, and the mean of squared deviation from a predictor obtained by exponential smoothing) seem to support the Friedman-Tobin hypothesis.     

An examination of the economic significance of stock return predictability in UK stock returns

We explore the out-of-sample performance of domestic UK asset allocation strategies that use forecasts of expected returns from a linear predictive regression and those that are implied by asset pricing models such as the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) or arbitrage pricing theory (APT). Our findings suggest that using forecasts of expected returns from the predictive regression generate significant benefits in out-of-sample performance. We find the performance of the strategies using expected return forecasts implied by the CAPM or APT is lower than the predictive regression strategy. However, with binding investment constraints, the performance of the APT matches that of the predictive regression.