WELFARE REFORM AND CHILDREN'S EARLY COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT

In this paper, we use a dynamic structural model to measure the effects of (1) single mothers' work and welfare use decisions and (2) welfare reform initiatives on the early cognitive development of the children of the NLSY79 mothers. We use PIAT‐Math scores as a measure of attainment and show that both the mothers' work and welfare use benefit children on average. Our simulation of a policy that combines a time limit with work requirement reduces the use of welfare and increases employment significantly. These changes in turn significantly increase children's cognitive attainment. This implies that the welfare reform was not only successful in achieving its stated goals, but was also beneficial to welfare children's outcomes. In another policy simulation, we show that increasing work incentives for welfare population by exempting labor income from welfare tax can be a very successful policy with some additional benefits for children's outcomes. Finally, a counterfactual with an extended maternal leave policy significantly reduces employment and has negative, though economically insignificant, impact on cognitive outcomes. (JEL I38, J22, J18)     

Risk Sharing and Efficiency Implications of Progressive Pension Arrangements*

This paper aims to quantify the welfare effects of progressive pension arrangements in Germany. Starting from a purely contribution‐related benefit system, we introduce basic allowances for contributions and a flat benefit fraction. Since our overlapping‐generations model takes into account variable labor supply, borrowing constraints as well as stochastic income risk, we can compare the labor supply, the liquidity and the insurance effects of the policy reform. Our simulations indicate that it would be optimal to introduce a flat benefit share of 50 percent and a basic allowance that amounts to 30 percent of average income. Such a reform would yield an aggregate efficiency gain of 3.3 percent of resources.     

On the impact of a tax shock in Portugal

In 1999, Cavaco Silva, the Portuguese Prime Minister from 1985 to 1995, proposed a comprehensive tax reform package, which is to this day the basic reference in the tax policy debate in Portugal. A tax shock would consist of 4pp cuts in the corporate income tax and in the firms social security contribution rates, and a 5pp reduction in the highest personal income tax rate. These cuts would be financed by combating tax evasion, curbing wasteful public expenditure and, if necessary, by increasing the VAT rate by up to 2pp. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model to evaluate the effects of this tax shock, we find that the long-term GDP gains would be between 0.72% and 2.91% while the effects on lifetime private welfare would range between -0.99% and 0.9%. The efficiency of this tax reform package depends critically on the way the tax cuts are financed to ensure deficit neutrality. Because investment is subject to adjustment costs, to alleviate the long-run trade-off between GDP and welfare, tax policy changes must induce a significant increase in net labor income.Received: July 2001, Accepted: March 2002, JEL Classification: C68, D58, E62, H21, H30Correspondence to: Alfredo M. PereiraA previous version of this paper was presented at the Society of Computational Economics and SPiE conferences. Thanks are due to Fernando Chau, Emanuel Santos, and two anonymous referees for very insightful comments and suggestions. The views in this article are of the authors alone and do not reflect the position of the Portuguese Ministry of Finance.     

影响非正规就业安全性的因素分析

非正规就业作为多种就业形式之一在促进中国经济增长、缓解日益严重的就业压力方面起着越来越重要的作用。但同时在当下劳动力市场中非正规就业的安全性却受到了严峻的挑战。影响非正规就业安全性的主要因素表现为非正规就业者贫乏的社会资本以及本身偏低的人力资本存量、强资本弱劳工的社会格局;歧视性的政策惯性;不完善的劳动力市场以及缺位的社会服务体系。     

行业收入差距的经济学解释

文章通过统计数据验证了我国行业收入的绝对差距逐渐扩大,相对差距持续高位的现实,并运用经济学的理论与分析方法论证了行业收入差距的产生与发展机理。首先,垄断企业的高利润获得机制决定其在劳动力市场中的决策主体地位;其次,行业市场分割与拥挤效应再现了垄断行业高利润与低就业的利己目标与社会效应的矛盾;最后,垄断行业存在的大量的隐性工资收入,即福利津贴等准固定劳动力成本,更加放大了行业收入的差距状况,使得民众感受的行业收入差距大于数据中的体现。这部分隐藏的非公平的社会感知,是政府决策者在缓解收入差距、促进社会公平的制度建设中应该重点解决的问题。     

The microfoundation of macroeconomic populism: The effects of economic inequality on public inflation aversion

Previous work on the politics of monetary policy has focused on the role of distributive motives stemming from individual characteristics such as income or factoral/sectoral interests in citizens' formation of monetary policy preferences. However, the existing literature has paid little attention to how a country's overall distributive context, namely, its level of economic inequality, affects citizens' preferences vis-à-vis price stability and employment. This article argues that as inequality pushes more citizens below a society's average income, there is more demand for redistribution through higher employment and increased fiscal spending, each of which can be better supported by expansionary monetary policy. This means that inequality makes citizens more tolerant of inflation. This study uses the International Social Survey Program, the Integrated Values Surveys, and the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, which together include 293,100 respondents from 53 countries between the years 1976 and 2016 to demonstrate that overall, inequality significantly moderates citizens' inflation aversion.     

The impact of state economic differentials on household welfare and labor force behavior

This paper calculates state-specific income expectations for low-income households, using a simultaneous model of household labor force and welfare participation decisions. A variety of simulations indicate the interlocking effects of existing state differences in welfare, wages and taxes on work/welfare choices and income. Significant differences among similar households in different states occur. Equalization of welfare benefits eliminates some but not all of these differences, but generates potentially serious policy problems for the states.     

Earned Income Tax Credits: Do They Have Any Role to Play in Australia?

Earned income tax credits (EITCs) have been used mainly in the United States. The Australian tax–transfer system is already very complicated and the aims of the EITC—notably reductions in effective tax rates for low income earners—might be achievable through reforms to existing components of the system. Such tax rates can be lowered either through reductions in social security tapers, or reductions in income tax payable. Action to reduce tapers affecting families is already proceeding through the social security component of the Government's tax reform package. To go further, by reducing tapers on the main allowances, like Newstart Allowance and Parenting Payment, would accelerate developments for such allowances to become forms of wage supplementation for the low paid. If it were not desired to go further down this path (and it does have problems), then relief of income tax burdens could be implemented through changes to the rate structure. While the EITC may make sense in the US context, a country with a well-developed welfare system like that of Australia has other options. In particular any EITC in this country is likely to be a supplement, not an alternative, to existing cash support for low income families.     

城镇居民收入差别“阶梯型”变动的理论解释与实证检验

文章对改革开放以来中国城镇居民收入差别变动过程中的"阶梯型"特征进行了研究。理论模型分析表明,劳动差别决定着城镇居民收入差别的基本走向,同时市场化体制改革措施的逐次推进,通过"制度诱发型"效率增进与收入差别的相互反馈效应在短期内会放大收入差别,然后政策的效果出现衰减,又引发了再一轮的改革,从而导致了收入差别扩大路径上的"阶梯型"特征。实证检验支持了理论模型的结论和前提。文章的政策含义是,制度变革过程中一定要注意市场化改革措施的收入差别效应及程度,防止单纯追求效率的增进而造成收入差别的拉大,有效而恰当的改革措施应充分考虑经济效率与收入差别的均衡关系。     

Economic inequality and paretian welfare economics: Some insinuating questions

This paper examines the academic soundness of the Pareto welfare criterion as a normative rule for evaluating alternative economic inequality scenarios and suggests that the criterion has several weaknesses, which weaken its usefulness. First, the Pareto principle is of limited use in the inequality debate because labor markets hardly satisfy the conditions of perfect competition, the pivotal assumption of the theory. Second, the proposition that competitive equilibrium leads to the “common good” of society is difficult to defend. Third, the Paretian welfare economics barely answers the questions society demands, because perfect competition does not guarantee fairness in the determination of relative prices in the initial situation of income distribution. Fourth, in the distribution theory, the marginal productivity principle determines the rewards to the factors of production. If we assume that rent, wage and interest incomes are determined by this theory, then questions arise about how profits, the potentially huge surpluses generated by the businesses, are distributed. Fifth, income distribution, being a public policy topic, is a political issue. However, Pareto's primary motivation in formulating the principle was to alienate the income distribution debate from political and policy discourses. Finally, by invoking the Pareto principle, economists are in fact avoiding the real issues of the public debate on personal distribution of income. Personal income distribution truly refers to division of income generated by a group of people working together and therefore, ought to be analysed with reference to the sector of employment. Thus, Tommy Franks' earning should be compared with that of a private, while an ordinary worker's salary should be compared with that of the CEO. History testifies that the public earning structure is much more equitable than that of the private sector. This poses a very serious question: Which earning structure reflects improvement in social welfare: public or private?     

Asymptotic Marginal Tax Rate of Individual Income Tax in China

This paper examines the asymptotic marginal rate of individual income tax which maximizes China's social welfare through numerical simulation based on the elasticity of China's labor supply, income distribution and the social objectives of redistribution in accordance with the optimal direct taxation theory. Taking advantage of the optimal direct taxation model with consideration of the income effect, it comes to the conclusion that combined with China's reality, the asymptotic marginal rate of individual labor income tax in China should be between 35% and 40%.     

Improving Work Incentives and Incomes for Parents: The National and Geographic Impact of Liberalising the Family Tax Benefit Income Test*

The effective tax rates and possible work disincentives created by Australia’s tax and welfare systems have been receiving extensive policy attention in recent years. Family Tax Benefit‐Part A (FTB‐A) is one of the key causes of high effective marginal tax rates for many families. This study uses national and spatial microsimulation models to evaluate the national and local impacts of a possible FTB‐A reform option, which involves reducing the income test withdrawal rate associated with the FTB‐A income test. The modelling suggests that the option would be an effective way to reduce high effective marginal tax rates for around 415,000 parents of FTB‐A children, would benefit around 850,000 families, and would deliver additional assistance to middle income families living on the outskirts of our cities.     

Income Provision in Old Age

Few areas of public policy impinge more directly on individual lifetime welfare than those directed at retirement income. While policy initiatives implemented since the start of the 1970s fall short of major reform, there have nevertheless been substantial changes in the real value of pensions, the coverage of pensions, and the tax treatment of various forms of retirement income. The objective of this article is to catalogue these changes in policy, and to identify the combination of political philosophy and socio-economic pressures underlying them. It also analyses some of the economic consequences of these policies and examines the question of national superannuation. The article concludes that, for the present at least, any reforms in the area of retirement income provision seem likely to be limited to the refinement of the status quo.     

中国城乡收入差距形成的宏观机制分析——中国存在Kuznets倒“U”曲线吗

理论与实证分析表明,决定城乡收入差别的宏观因素主要包括经济发展程度、城乡劳动力负担差异程度与城乡劳动生产率差异。其中,城镇劳动力负担、城乡劳动生产率差距与城乡收入差距负相关,农村劳动力负担与城乡收入距正相关,经济发展程度与城乡收入差距存在倒“U”型关系。为此,要缩小城乡收入差距就需要在继续促进经济快速稳定发展中,坚持市场化改革的方向与现有人口政策,以规模化、科技化和产业化推动传统农业升级,提升农村劳动生产率。     

The Social Economics of Work Time: Introduction

How do social economists conceptualize and analyze time, particularly time spent in paid employment? In this symposium regarding this quite “timely”" issue, it is evident that social economics views work time as something more than its presentation in neoclassical economics. For neoclassical economists, time is a scarce resource that, when commodified as labor, serves as a factor of production and means to the end of consumption for optimizing firms, individuals, and families. It is also more than the radical political economics understanding of time as the yardstick measuring the value created by labor. Instead, time spent on the job is all at once a source of income, personal identity, and relative status within society, the workplace and household, and a constraint on individuals' ability to pursue self-directed activities and social reproduction. Work time is determined within a complex web of evolving culture and social relations, as well as traditionally conceived market, technological, and macroeconomic forces and institutions such as collective bargaining and government policy.     

The Future European Labor Supply: The Critical Role of the Family

The European employment strategy initiated in 1997 is critically dependent upon the further integration of women into the labor market. The European Union has set a specific target employment rate for women of 60 percent by 2010 and is also committed to providing more and better child care facilities. This gender focus is reinforced by the requirement for gender mainstreaming in all aspects of European employment policy. There is an implied Europe-wide, universal policy of encouraging female labor-market participation and reducing the care work performed by domestic labor. However, the European Commission continues to have limited competence in areas of family, social, and welfare policy. As a result, these common employment objectives for women are thus being pursued against a background of quite different systems of social, family, welfare, and indeed labor-market organization. These systems have different economic and employment implications, such that the outcomes of the common European employment strategy will also be highly variable.     

The Marginal Costs and Benefits of Redistributing Income and the Willingness to Pay for Status

The effect of status on aggregate welfare is ambiguous for marginal reforms that redistribute income. If average consumption falls, the change in relative consumption increases household utility but reinforces the decrease in household labor supply, raising welfare cost. For parameterizations of the model developed here, reforms which lower average consumption increase aggregate welfare. Numerical calculations show that status increases marginal welfare cost and marginal net benefit for a demogrant reform. Redistributing to high income households may increase aggregate welfare depending on the definition of average consumption and if the willingness to pay for status increases with income.     

效率与公平兼顾的最优所得税:理论框架及最优税率估计

最优所得税主要探讨税收如何兼顾公平与效率问题,以及给定公平偏好程度下,如何确定最优边际税率水平。即使在崇尚罗尔斯社会福利函数的社会里,政府同时兼顾再分配和财政收入目标的基础上,只要略加考虑税收对劳动供给的效应,哪怕是微弱的考虑和兼顾,最高边际税率都不会达到100%。而且,借鉴斯特恩最优线性所得税模型及美国个人所得税制度,估计我国现行个人所得税最高边际税率还可以适当降低到36%左右。     

Incorporating affirmative action into the welfare state

In this paper, we discuss a novel aspect of affirmative action policy. We examine its redistributive role, asking whether in an egalitarian society, supplementing the tax-transfer system with an affirmative action policy would enhance social welfare. We demonstrate that affirmative action could be a desirable policy tool even if racial discrimination does not exist in the labor market.     

Are OECD policy recommendations for public sector reform biased against welfare states? Evidence from a new database

Policy advice by the OECD has long been at the heart of academic debates on welfare state reform, with frequent claims questioning the ideological orientation of recommendations. This paper constructs an indicator of perceived reform need for 24 countries, quantifying the policy advice contained in the OECD Economic Surveys around 1985, 1995, and 2005. These recommendations describe a policy consensus that is based on competition, work incentives, monetary reform, fiscal discipline, and labor market reform. Empirically, perceived need for reform is well explained by preceding levels of economic freedom. In particular, countries with more government intervention, lower property rights protection, and more regulation are perceived to have a bigger reform need. In turn, perceived reform need has no explanatory power for subsequent changes in social expenditure and welfare state entitlements. Only in countries with right wing governments, perceived reform need might be followed by marginal reductions in welfare state entitlements, but definitely not in social expenditure.