黑龙江省农业生产资料价格波动对农民增收的影响

黑龙江省是我国最大的商品粮生产基地,种粮收入在农民全年收入中占有很大比例.2004年以来,中央一号文件的出台和免征农业税、粮食直补、良种补贴、农资综合补贴等一系列政策措施的实施,使黑龙江省广大种粮农民得到了很多实惠.但是,农资价格的持续上涨,使得农民投入不断增加,国家税改政策和粮价上涨给农民增收带来的收益,正在被以种子、化肥为主的农资价格上涨所冲销,使农民种粮效益降低.通过对黑龙江省农业生产资料价格波动对农民收入影响的分析,对增加农民收入的对策进行了探讨,旨在为黑龙江省农民增收提供有益参考.     

农民弃种拉响粮食安全警钟撂荒耕地或3000万亩

种粮赔钱，农民干脆选择不种。荒芜的土地因此越来越多。这是一个常见的奇怪现象：一边是农资价格飞涨，粮价却不怎么涨，农民种地赔钱，干脆不种。另外一边，却是食品价格已经上涨到了消费者吃饭都要精打细算的地步。     

提高粮价是增加粮食生产的基本选择

粮食收购价格偏低,主要表现在三个方面:第一,购收价格远低于市价;第二,种粮比较收益过低;第三,种粮成本难以补偿。这种状况,直接影响着农民种粮和卖粮的积极性,制约着粮食生产的稳定发展,因此,提高粮价问题是增加粮食生产无法回避的选择:1、增加粮食生产的各项措施离不开价格因素的制约。根据国内外实践经验,增加粮食生产不外     

调整农田种植结构的若干思考

实行家庭联产承包责任制以来，极大地刺激了农民的热值，农民对土地投入明显增加，粮食生产得到迅速发展，农民的温饱基本得到解决。然而，在粮食丰收的喜悦背后，农民陷入了深深的困惑和忧虑：粮食销路不畅，市场粮价下跌。与此同时，农业生产资料价格日渐上涨，农民无力承担“投资大、见效慢”的山地开发。两头夹击，农民种粮的实惠下降。如何引导农民摆脱增产不增收的困境，提高农业的经济效益？对此，我认为必须引导农民从“投资大、见效慢”的山上走下来，大力调整农田（投资较小、见效快）种植结构，走“农业要大上，不能光种粮，农民…     

粮食生产价格的决定因素:市场粮价还是种粮成本利润

建立合理有效的粮食生产价格形成机制,是确保工农城乡和谐发展的关键环节。本文在对中国粮食生产价格形成进行制度分析的基础上,运用RSVAR等计量方法,实证研究了粮食生产价格与市场粮价、种粮成本利润之间的数量关系。结果表明:1978-2011年间,种粮成本利润对粮食生产价格形成发挥了一定的作用,该作用主要表现为长期因果关系,但不具有短期因果关系;新世纪以来的粮食生产价格形成机制中,市场粮价已经成为主导因素,种粮成本的影响则十分微弱;粮食生产价格对市场粮价、种粮成本的传导作用并不明显。粮食收购市场的价格传导机制不通畅,价格形成侧重流通领域、而偏离生产领域等问题,不利于粮食生产的可持续发展。     

江苏粮食安全存在的问题和对策建议

粮食生产属于公益性产业,粮食产品带有全国性公共产品性质。对于粮食生产的投资具有低盈利性、高风险性、利益外溢性等特点。各地地方政府出于经济利益和政绩考核的考虑,只重视招商引资发展工业,认为发展粮食生产是"低档"经济,在农业产业结构调整中减少种粮面积,都希望其他地方增加对粮食的投资,自己免费搭便车。但如果大家都不从事粮食生产,就会出现"合成谬误",导致集体非理性,影响全国的粮食安全。该文通过对作为传统粮食主产区的江苏省面临困惑的分析,建议政府通过发起诱致性制度变迁,明确粮食生产的公益行业定位、加大种粮补贴、提高粮价、发展规模经营等多种措施增加粮农收入,诱发农民的种粮积极性,使制度变迁自我强化,进入良性轨道,确保国家粮食安全。     

四大难题制约粮食顺价销售

作为粮食流通体制三项改革之一的粮食顺价销售在具体实施中经常遇到障碍,致使政策运作走偏。这个问题如得不到及时解决,将直接影响顺价销售政策目标的实现。 粮食难以顺价销售的核心问题是市场经济意识缺乏。 粮价放开的前几年,由于我国粮食产量不足,原有的计划价格也不高(流通费用均由政府补贴),销售市场的粮价涨得很快。收购价格在销售市场价格的诱导下,1994年至1996年作了大幅度调整,农民种粮     

关于农民种粮积极性问题的调查

农民种植粮食受到政策的落实、粮食的产量和粮食的收益等因素的影响,而农民种粮积极性的下降将直接导致粮食产量的下降,这对我国将会是一个很大的挑战.开展对农民种粮积极性问题的调查,进一步了解农民种粮情况及在种粮过程中存在的问题,并探索可行性办法以调动农民种粮积极性.     

影响2009年国内粮价因素的分析与走势预测

近年来,国内粮价在与国际粮价保持某种关联性的同时也有着自身的变动特征.而2008年下半年全球金融危机的爆发使得影响粮食价格波动的因素变得更加复杂化.本文将从近年来影响国内外粮价波动的因素着手,逐一分析各因素对2009年我国粮价走势的影响,并在此基础上对今年国内粮价的整体走势做出综合预测.     

改革我国粮食生产社会环境模式的思考

常言道,民以食为天,食以粮为本,粮食稳、天下安。文章就中美有关粮食生产社会环境和保护模式进行比较,提出政府和社会必须保证农民种粮零风险,有效益;必须保证种粮农民继续生产所需资金。农民安心种粮,是我国建立和谐社会的基础。农民不承担种粮亏损风险,也以不享受涨价的利益为代价。     

Ökonometrische Inflationsanalyse für Österreich 1960/1975

Summary The following econometric study analyses the inflationary process in Austria since 1960. Price equations are estimated for the period 1960/1973 and several subperiods with quarterly and yearly data, forecasts of the development of the GNP-deflator and the consumer price index are made for 1974 and 1975. In this way it is possible to quantify the relative importance of inflationary factors and to test the stability of the price determination structures. Special emphasis is laid on the rôle of monetary variables and of price expectations in the process of price determination.The conclusion of the study is that accelerating inflation in the 70ies can be explained by the same factors than creeping inflation of the 50ies and 60ies. Inflation has always been of a mixed type, though the relative weight of cost, demand, monetary and expectational variables changed during the observation period. There is no sign that a new type of inflation with new behaviour patterns was emerging in the last years. Even the extraordinary (externally influenced) price rise in 1974 can be explained by price functions of traditional structure. Forecasts for 1975 show no substantial diminuation of inflationary pressures.     

我国粮食价格变动的经济效应分析

粮食价格变动的经济效应体现为对粮食产量、农民收入、物价的影响。从粮食市场价格形成的机制看,成本与资源禀赋决定粮价的长期走势,中期以市场自发调节为基础,政府干预为主导。本文通过对粮价与粮食产量、粮价与农民收入、粮价与物价之间的协整性和格兰杰因果关系检验,得出结论:粮食价格上涨能显著地刺激粮食增产、短期内激励农民增收,统计意义上粮食市场价格上涨不会引起物价上升,政府要继续利用粮食价格手段支持粮食增产与农民增收。今年粮食等主要农产品价格上涨不是引起通胀的主要原因,不能轻率地抑制农产品价格。     

中国粮食最低收购价合理确定机制研究

粮食的最低收购价水平过低或过高都会带来不利影响.保持合理的粮食最低收购价水平有利于粮食生产的稳定.确定农产品支持价格可依据每种粮食生产要素应该得到的适当补偿来确定我国的粮食最低收购价水平.     

Household lending, interest rates and housing price bubbles in Korea: Regime switching model and Kalman filter approach

This study investigates whether interest rates and household lending caused housing price bubbles in Korea over the period of 1986 to 2003. Using a regime-switching model, we found evidence of the existence of housing price bubbles throughout the sample period, with the exception of 1998 when Korea suffered from a financial crisis. Using a Kalman filter technique, we estimated the size of housing price bubbles for the sample period. Finally, using generalized impulse response function analysis and variance decompositions, we found that housing price bubbles increased with household lending and industrial production, whereas they decreased with interest rate; this latter effect is relatively small, however. Policy implications include the importance of preemptive intervention on household lending in order to contain housing price bubbles, but interest rates appear to be a less effective policy tool.     

A dynamic approach to analysing the effect of the global crisis on nonperforming loans: evidence from the Turkish banking sector

This article analyses the effect of the global crisis on the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Turkish banking sector by using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Empirical findings suggest that NPLs present persistence, which is more evident after the crisis, while other regressors have also persistent effects in the post-crisis period. Moreover, NPLs are mostly shaped by bank-specific variables before the crisis, whereas, after the crisis, NPLs are also driven by macroeconomic and policy-related variables. In particular, the post-crisis significance of GDP, policy rate and sovereign debt shows that robust economic activity, tight monetary policy and strong fiscal balances restrict NPLs, thereby enhancing financial stability. The significance of inflation in both sub-periods shows that commitment to price stability objective is indispensable for limiting NPLs and promoting financial stability. In the period ahead, the speed and the direction of normalization in global monetary policies may determine the course of financial conditions, which, therefore, have implications regarding NPL dynamics and financial stability.     

货币政策与物价稳定的非线性动态关系——基于货币供应量的视角

采用2001-2011年货币供应量与物价水平的季度时间序列数据,通过非线性平滑转换模型对货币供应量与物价稳定之间的动态关系进行研究,结果表明:货币供应量与物价稳定之间存在着双向的格兰杰因果关系,并且这种关系可以通过非线性LSTR2模型表示;两者之间的非线性转换以时间为转换变量,转换分别发生在2003年的非典时期和次贷危机之后;我国物价水平主要受到其自身的影响,说明我国物价水平具有较强的惯性.     

基于预期的货币政策调控与金融危机防范

资本的虚拟性,使得金融市场的参与者对资产价值的评估高度依赖于由信息形成的预期.预期的变化容易引起资产价格大幅度的波动.由于金融市场的联动性,单一市场泡沫的形成和破裂可能引发金融体系的全面震荡,爆发金融危机.基于此,本文强调了预期在金融危机爆发和扩散中的关键地位,以及利用货币政策引导预期的重要性.     

中国农产品价格波动对CPI的影响分析

近期引起中国农产品价格上涨的诱因很多。通过2006年1月—2011年8月的月度数据检验金融危机前、危机期间和危机后农产品价格与居民消费物价指数的互动关系表明,三个阶段的二者关系变化显著,而且危机前后农产品价格对CPI的影响比危机期间更明显,这一结果反映出当前中国农产品品质不能适应消费者对农产品质量的需求。     

Price convergence in the European Union – What has changed?

This paper investigates price convergence in European Union countries using disaggregated price level indices in the period 1999–2016. Our results show that prices of both tradable and nontradable goods had a significantly lower dispersion in 2016 than in 1999. The convergence was faster in the case of countries with price level below the average, which can be interpreted as catching-up. However, further analysis shows that most prices converged only up to 2008. While prices of transport equipment continue to converge across the European Union, several durable consumption categories show price divergence after 2008. We attribute this to the drop in international trade of durable products due to increasing inflation and exchange rates volatility following the global financial crisis. From the monetary policy perspective, the existing price-level gaps, shown in our study, may pose a risk of higher inflation, especially in catching-up economies.     

Use values and exchange values in Marx’s extended reproduction schemes

Abstract

Marx-Engels’ numerical illustrations of the extended reproduction suggest that a two-sector economy reaches a balanced growth path, from the second period onwards. We explain this surprising result and show that for technical reasons, disproportions between sectors can prevent the system from reproducing itself. But, in Marx’s reproduction schemes, such a crisis is not only due to purely technical factors and one must wonder what role is played by the relative price in the reproduction of the system. The answer is given by comparing two models having a similar structure but quite different rules for the determination of the relative price. In Marx’s model, the price is given by the labour values and thus, it is exogenously fixed. We contrast Marx’s analysis with an endogenous price model in which the price depends on the conditions of the accumulation of capital. The Appendices point out the complete accordance of Engels’ corrections with Marx’s model and Marx’s unfruitful quest for a balanced growth path as a tool for the analysis of crises.