Inequality Beyond GDP: A Long View

This paper addresses international inequality in multidimensional well-being during the last one-and-a-half centuries. Inequality fell in health and education since the late 1920s, due to the globalization of mass schooling and the diffusion of the health transition, but only dropped in population-weighted terms from 1970 onward for political and civil liberties, as the emergence of authoritarian regimes increased its dispersion since the end of World War I. In terms of augmented human development inequality declined since 1900. These results are at odds with per capita income inequality that rose over time and only shrank from 1990 onward. The gap between the OECD and the Rest of the world accounted only partially for inequality in well-being since the dispersion within developing regions became its main driver from the mid-20th century onward. Countries in the middle and lower deciles of the world distribution achieved the largest relative gain over the past century.     

The Profit–Investment Nexus in an Era of Financialisation,Globalisation and Monopolisation: A Profit-Centred Perspective

ABSTRACT

During recent decades, the link between profits and domestic investment has weakened in the largest high-income economies. In this article, we explore this attenuation of the profit–investment nexus through a profit-centred perspective. Focusing on the impact of the origins and uses of profits, we study the investment behaviour of non-financial corporations in relation to their profits at the macro level since 1970, a period marked by financialisation, globalisation and, more recently, monopolisation. We contrast and discuss four competing hypothese—the revenge of the rentiers, the financial turn of accumulation, globalisation and monopolisation—and related stylised facts for France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.     

The Boom and the Bubble: The US in the World Economy

Most intellectuals would be pleased to have one major debate named after them. The Marxist economic historian Robert Brenner has managed the remarkable feat of unleashing two significant intellectual controversies. The first, in the historical journal Past & Present during the late 1970s and early 1980s, was provoked by his interpretation of the transition from feudalism to capitalism in early modern Europe. More recently, however, Brenner has switched his attention from the longue durée of European history to the economic dynamics of contemporary capitalism. In a massive journal-length article published in New Left Review in 1998 he offered a comparative analysis of the three major Western economies—the USA, Japan and Germany—from 1945 onwards, tracing the development of a protracted crisis of profitability that, Brenner contended, explained the ‘long downturn’ experienced by global capitalism since the early 1970s.     

What are the Policy Lessons from Sweden? On the Rise,Fall and Revival of a Capitalist Welfare State

This paper discusses a number of questions with regard to Sweden's economic and political development:

? How did Sweden become rich?

? What explains Sweden's high level of income equality?

? What were the causes of Sweden's problems from 1970 to 1995?

? How is it possible that Sweden, since the crisis of the early 1990s, is growing faster than most EU countries despite its high taxes and generous welfare state?

These questions are analysed using recent insights from institutional economics, as well as studies of inequality and economic growth. The main conclusion is that there is little, if any, Swedish exceptionalism: Sweden became rich because of well-functioning capitalist institutions, and inequality was low before the expansion of the welfare state. The recent favourable growth record of Sweden, including the period of financial stress (2008–10), is a likely outcome of a number of far-reaching structural reforms implemented in the 1980s and 1990s.     

Main Currents of Marxism

We present a three-fold test for sustainability on policies addressing environmental and natural resource management. The first — ecological holism — requires that management of natural systems not only ensure the long term viability of ecosystem functions and enhanced diversity of wildlife within that ecosystem, but also facilitate the provision of renewable energy and material resources. The second — community centeredness — is an assessment of the improvement (or reduction) in economic wellbeing of local populations measured by employment and income and in quality of life for the larger community resulting from that policy. The third — institutional legitimacy — evaluates the level of justice that a policy and its outcome(s) bring to the entire community (here, just policies will satisfy Rawls's "veil of ignorance" test). Three policies for National Forest management on Washington's Olympic Peninsula are examined and results are compared: the Northwest Forest Plan, the Wild Olympics Wilderness and Scenic Rivers Act of 2012 (Wild Olympics), and The Third Way (an alternative forest management option). Each policy satisfies the first test of ecological holism, but not in equal measures. Success in this regard can be differentially ranked because the relative impacts are not neutral. Both the Northwest Forest Plan and Wild Olympics fail the test of community centeredness. In contrast, The Third Way promotes community centeredness and ecological holism. We assert that, as a result, it would satisfy John Rawls's test for justice, and it is institutionally legitimate.     

Structural Breaks and Convergence in the Regions of Peru: 1970–2010

The aim of this paper is the analysis of stochastic and β‐convergence in the relative regional per capita outputs using different unit root tests both with and without structural breaks and using a further test that is robust to the presence of I(0) or I(1) errors. It allows robust inference on the estimates of the initial per capita output (intercepts) and the respective growth rates (slopes). The results of the application of unit root tests without structural breaks show the absence of stochastic convergence. However, by incorporating the presence of endogenous breaks, the results are reversed for all regions. In the case of β‐convergence, the results of the robust test W_RQF show that all regions have a structural break at some point during the period 1970–2010. We find different behavior for different regions. There is a catching‐up process and a lagging‐behind process for different groups of regions towards more negative or more positive paths.     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: External Economic Policy Since the War. Vol. 1. Thc Post-War Financial settlement, by L.S. Pressnell Egalitarianism and the Generation of Inequality, by Henry Phelps Brown Lectures on Advanced Econometric Theory, by D. Sargan States and Markets: An Introduction to International Political Economy, by S. Strange How Much Government? by Michael James Allocation Models: Specification, Estimation & Applications, by R. Bewley Industrial Relations Reform: A Policy for Australia, by William A. Growth, Accumulation, and Unproductive Activity: An Analysis of the Postwar U.S Economy by E.N. Wolff Risk, Decision and Rodonality, edited by B.R. Munier Specification Analysis in the Linear Model—in Honour of Donald Cochrane, edited by M.L. King and D.E.A. Giles Structural Change in Macroeconomic Models, by MJ. Vilares Classical Political Economy: A Survey of Recent Literature edited by W.O. Economic History and the History of Economics, by M. Blang Economic Adjustment: Polices and Problems, edited by F. Holmes Direct Protection of Innovation, edited by W. Kingston     

University education in future studies— a mark III critique: Part II

In 1970 an initial survey was made of futures courses at university level based on forty courses that could be located in the United States and Canada [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2, 133–148 (1970)]. This was replicated during 1970–1972 on approximately 200 North American courses and reported changes in the field at the Third World Future Research Conference in Bucharest, September 1972 (Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 4, 387–407 [1973]). A third interation was funded by the World Institute Council and published in abstracted form with their permission here. The conclusions to be drawn from some six years of analysis of such courses, and drawn especially from the specifics of the 300 courses in the third iteration, can be lumped under five main headings: (1) All disciplines are to some degree finally alerted to the future implications of both their research and their teaching. (2) There remains still much “froth and nonsense” in futures courses. How to control this and encourage lively creativity is a complex problem-especially since the intellectual image of futurism today is not that high! (3) There appears to be no reliable sociocultural change theory backing future studies and there is precious little solid theory backing future studies and there is precious little solid theory in the field itself-offset by some progress in methodology. (4) Despite these strictures, if all future-oriented courses in American/Canadian universities were lumped together (future Studies per se; technology forecasting/assessment; policy sciences; peace studies; demography; environmental/ecology courses; general systems theory/system analysis/system dynamics; mathematical modelling and game theory; eschatology; utopian literature and science fiction; even black studies and women's courses) the total might approach 5000 and it is still growing, as is popular and academic understanding of the necessity “to plan ahead” in this period of human malaise. (5) Informal education of varied worth, from free swinging communes to middle management cram courses conducted by think-tanks, may turn out to be more useful in future-oriented advanced education than that which takes place in formal “walled” traditional institutions.     

Finance and sources of growth: evidence from the U.S. states

How does financial development affect economic growth: through its impact on accumulation of physical and human capital or by boosting total factor productivity (TFP) growth? We use a new data set on output, inputs, and total factor productivity for the US states to study this question. Unlike previous cross-country research that tries to disentangle the channels through which financial development impacts growth, we use a plausibly exogenous measure of financial development: the timing of banking deregulation across states during the period 1970–2000. At the same time our new data set allows us to go beyond what was previously done in the state banking deregulation literature and identify whether finance impacts states’ input accumulation or TFP growth. We find, in line with existing cross-country studies, that deregulation boosts growth by accelerating both TFP growth and the accumulation of physical capital without having any impact on human capital. In contrast to the cross-country studies, we also find that the effects of deregulation are largely independent of states’ initial level of development; both rich and poor states grow faster after deregulation. Additionally, since our data set breaks down aggregate output into three sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, and the remaining industries, we are able to show that deregulation accelerates the growth of productivity in manufacturing. This last finding answers an important critique of the banking deregulation studies which asserts that observed growth effects may be coming from the growth of financial industry itself and not from the beneficial effect of finance on other industries, such as manufacturing.     

Asset ownership and market structure in oligopoly: Further results

How does the sale of assets from a small firm to a large firm affect the equilibrium price in oligopoly? Using the ‘cross-sectional differentiation’ technique introduced by Farrell and Shapiro (Rand Journal of Economics, 1990, 21, 275–292), I show that the equilibrium price rises if the common production technology is homogeneous of degree t, 0<t1.     

The Theory of the Individual in Economics: Identity and Value

Fundamental to social provisioning is ensuring that community members have access to employment opportunities that pay living wages and sustain the environment. In a previous study, two of us (Underwood, Friesner and Cross 2014 Underwood, Daniel, Dan Friesner and Jason Cross. “Toward an Institutional Legitimation of Sustainability.” Journal of Economic Issues 48, 3 (2014): 870–885. [Google Scholar]) presented criteria for sustainable community economic development, a three-fold test to comparatively assess economic development policies: ecological holism, community centeredness, and institutional legitimacy. Applying this test generates an iterative, evolutionary process of economic development. Absent from these criteria is the concept of intention, as policy options are not “given,” but rather designed by self-interested groups to manipulate interpretations of these test criteria in advancement of their vested interests — outcomes which can be juxtaposed to the “interests of community.” Here, we integrate two additional principles: economic diversity and solidarity. Economic diversity emphasizes living wages in numerous industries to stabilize exogenous economic shocks. Solidarity, as a unit of socio-economic interdependence, stresses commonality of wellbeing within communities. Integrating solidarity and economic diversity into the criteria for sustainable community economic development improves policy design and outcomes that sustain the environment, while also providing living wage employment for community members.     

司法制度、工资激励与反腐败:中国案例

现有研究表明,自20世纪90年代以来,中国的腐败没有得到有效遏制,其根本原因是什么?中国目前实施的反腐败策略效果如何?这些都是反腐败研究中必须关注的重要问题。本文利用中国1989—2006年省级面板数据,从立法、执法和工资激励等视角实证分析了中国反腐败策略的效果。文章发现,司法制度建设(增加立法数量和加大执法力度)能够显著减少腐败发生率;高薪养廉(增加公务员工资)对反腐败发挥了积极影响;预算外收入增加是导致腐败蔓延的原因之一。另外,司法制度(立法)在反腐败中的作用受到预算外收入的影响。     

Rethinking the Links between Human Relationships and Economic Efficiency Using Local Institutions: The Case of Two Emerging Economies

Emerging countries around the world have been growing fast over the last thirty years, with most of these countries basing their economic development on a state capitalism. Within these countries, there is a concentration of wealth in the hands of a few people. This fact confirms the analysis of Thorstein Veblen (1898 Veblen, Thorstein. “Why Is Economics Not an Evolutionary Sciences?” Quarterly Journal of Economics 12, 2 (1898): 373–397.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) who shows the gap that exists between the vested interest of the rich and the unmet needs of the poor. The world happiness report (Helliwell, Layard and Sachs 2016 Helliwell, John F., Richard Layard and Jeffrey Sachs, eds. World Happiness Report 2016. World Happiness, 2016. Available at http://worldhappiness.report/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/03/HR-V1_web.pdf. Accessed December 1, 2016. [Google Scholar]) also shows for the emerging economies a gap between the world rank in economic growth and in wellbeing. I propose a new paradigm of development for two emerging economies, Brazil and South Africa, by putting human development in the center of economic development and by using different approaches in economics and psychology. My analysis links the theories of Carl Shapiro and Joseph E. Stiglitz regarding “efficiency wages” (1984 Shapiro, Carl and Joseph E. Stiglitz. “Equilibrium Unemployment as Worker Disciplines Devices.” American Economic Review 74, 3 (1984): 433–444.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) with the complexity approach (Le Moigne 1995 Le Moigne, Jean-Louis. La modélisation des systèmes complexes. Paris, France: Dunod, 1995. [Google Scholar]). This approach combines the results of positive psychology (Kahneman 2011 Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. London, UK: Penguin, 2011. [Google Scholar]) with the role of local institutions for improving the economic development of emerging economies (Deaton 2016 Deaton, Angus. La grande évasion: Santé, richesse et origine des inégalités. Paris, France: PUF, [2015] 2016. [Google Scholar]). In the first section of the article, I examine definitions of economic and human wealth. In the second section, I analyze the gaps that exist between the standard-of-living ranking and the wellbeing ranking for both Brazil and South Africa in order to present meso-happiness indexes linking the micro- and macro-levels of human wealth. In the last section, I analyze the way local institutions in Brazil and South Africa could create dynamic links for these countries’ efficient functioning in the world economy.     

Book Review

Jacques Berthelot : Les Coopératives Agricoles en Economie Concurrentielle (Agricultural Co-operatives in a Competitive Economy). Preface by Robert Badoin, Professor in the Faculty of Law and Economic Sciences, Montpellier, Cujas, Paris, 1972, 366 pages. Albert Meister : Où va l'autogestion yougoslave? (Whither Yugoslav Self-Management?), Anthropos, Paris, 1970, 374 pages. W. Friedmann and J.F. Garner : Government Enterprise – a Comparative Study, British, Institute Studies in International and Comparative Law, No. 5, Index, London, Stevens & Sons, 1970, 341 pp. H. Knapp and A.E. Rauter : Akzente konsumgenossenschaftlicher Verbraucherpolitik (Aspects of the consumer co-operatives'policy on consumer protection), Genossenschaftliche, Schriftenreihe, No. 37, Konsumverband, Vienna, 1972, 66 pages. Business Switch – an Introduction to Business Management in Retailing, Ragnar Arvidsson and S. Dandapani, International Co-operative Alliance, New Delhi, 1972. Rolf E. Vente and Dieter Seul : Makro-ökonomische Planung. Eine Bibliographie (Macro-economic Planning – a Bibliography), Nomos Verlangsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, 1970, 292 pages.     

Nonlinear relationship between health care expenditure and its determinants: a panel smooth transition regression model

This paper employs a panel of 16 OECD countries over the period 1975–2009 to reexamine the health care expenditure (HCE)-income relationship by considering a lagged ratio of public expenditures on health as the transition variable in panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models. PSTR models can capture the heterogeneity of any individual country, provide more detailed information for policy makers of an individual government, and resolve the insufficient observations problem that frequently appears in annual country-level data. Our empirical results indicate that the relationship between HCE and its determinants, including income, time (trend), and age structure variables, is nonlinear and varies with time and across countries. The time (trend) variable—a proxy for technical progress in health care—has a non-linear impact on HCE. Ignoring the variables—technological change of health care and age structure of population—will result in over-estimates of the income elasticities of HCE. Moreover, HCE behaves as a necessity good, and the income elasticity increases when the five-period lagged ratio of public expenditures on health increases. Clearly, the ratio of government financing on health plays an important role in influencing HCE.     

Augusto Graziani and the Marx-Schumpeter-Keynes ‘Cycle of Money Capital’: A Personal Look at the Early Italian Circuitism from an Insider

ABSTRACT

The paper goes back to the origins of the theory of the monetary circuit in its Italian incarnation. Focus is on the evolution of Augusto Graziani's thinking between mid-1970s and mid-1980s, considering: (i) how Graziani connected (positively or polemically) with Keynesianism and Post-Keynesianism, both in its Cambridge and US incarnations; (ii) how Graziani interpreted the contributions of Keynes proposing a continuity between the Treatise on Money, the General Theory, and the articles on finance published after the 1936 book; (iii) how beneath the research programme of Italian circuitism (Graziani) we may recognise a peculiar Marxian inspiration, later on pursued for a while by some participants to the Seminar in Monetary Theory that Graziani coordinated in Naples (1981–85). Since the mid-1970s Graziani — who already had a profound knowledge of Neoclassical Theory; and who was deeply aware of the role of institutions — developed more and more his heretical stance into what we may label as a ‘structural Keynesian' approach, inserting Keynes’ views about finance to production and effective demand into a Schumpeterian vision of the capitalist process, and leading to Marxian conclusions about value and distribution. The early forays into circuitism by Graziani were not only critical towards the Neoclassical Synthesis, Monetarism, or New Classical Macroeconomics. They were also grounded in an intense confrontation with other contemporary heterodox currents. The outcome was the construction of an original scheme of thought which amounted to nothing less than a macro-monetary theory of capitalist production.     

Aristotle's analysis of bilateral exchange: an early formal approach to the bargaining problem

Exchange, as analysed by Aristotle in the Nichomachean Ethics, should be viewed as a bilateral relation to be approached not as a market phenomenon but in terms of cooperation between two contractors. This paper accordingly proposes a reconsideration of Aristotle's analysis in the light of modern bargaining theory. This reconsideration reconciles the two principles of distributive and corrective justice as ruling simultaneously exchange relations through the figures of geometric and arithmetic proportions, respectively. It also suggests a new reconstitution of the missing diagram supposedly illustrating Aristotle's analysis, which — contrary to the conventional square endowed with diagonals, used since Albertus Magnus' commentary — fits the function to which such a diagram was probably designed, that of exhibiting Aristotle's solution to the bargaining problem.     

Technological convergence, R&D, trade and productivity growth

This paper analyses productivity growth in a panel of 14 United Kingdom manufacturing industries since 1970. Innovation and technology transfer provide two potential sources of productivity growth for a country behind the technological frontier. We examine the roles played by research and development (R&D), international trade, and human capital in stimulating each source of productivity growth. Technology transfer is statistically significant and quantitatively important. While R&D raises rates of innovation, international trade enhances the speed of technology transfer. Human capital primarily affects output through private rates of return (captured in our index of labour quality) rather than measured TFP.     

Private Wealth in a Developing Country:Evidence from South Africa

The point of departure of Piketty's influential Capital in the Twenty‐First Century (2014) was the dramatic growth of private wealth‐income ratios in advanced economies between 1970 and 2010. Using official balance sheet data for South Africa—the first country to publish such data in the developing world—, this paper examines to what extent this re‐emergence of private wealth was also experienced in the developing‐country context. First, we find that the South African current wealth‐income ratio is very close to its 1975 level, and much lower than those of Piketty's sample of advanced economies. Second, we show that the discrepancy is explained not only by South Africa's relatively low savings rates, but also by the reduction of wealth before and during the transition to democracy in the 1990s. Since then, private wealth recovered significantly, but the U‐shaped relationship does not support the argument that there is a clear correlation between the capital‐income ratio and capital share.     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Sustainable Development in Agriculture, edited by J.K. Parikh Agriculture and the GATT: Rewriting the Rules, by Dale E. Hathaway Keynes's Vision, by A. Fitzgibbons The Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement: The Global Impact, edited by J.J. Schott and M.G. Smith From School to Unemployment?, edited by P.N. Junankar Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics, by F.X. Diebold K.A. Chrystal and R. Sedgwick (Wheatsheaf Books, Sussex, 1987) Floating Exchange Rates: Theories and Evidence, by R. MacDonald Essays in Honour of Kenneth Arrow: Volume I, Social Choice and Public Decision Making; Volume II, Equilibrium Analysis; Volume III, Uncertainty, Information and Communication, edited by Walter P. Heller, Ross M. Starr and David A. Starrett Keynes and Public Policy After Fifty Years: Volume 1—Economics and Policy, edited by O.F. Hamouda and J.M. Smithin Keynes and Public Policy After Fifty Years: Volume 2—Theories and Method, edited by OF. Hamouda and J.M. Smithin Handbook of Econometrics Volume III, edited by Z. Griliches and M.D. Intriligator Applied Welfare Economics and Public Policy, by R.E. Just, D.L. Hueth and A. Schmitz The Economic Theory and Measurement of Environmental Benefits, by P. Johansson Applications of Modern Production Theory: Efficiency and Productivity, edited by A. Dogramaci and R. Fare Australian Protectionism: Extent, Causes and Effects, by Kym Anderson and Ross Garnaut Policy Options for the Singapore Economy, by C.Y. Lim and associates German Political Economy: The History of an Alternative Economics, by T. Riha World Agricultural Trade: Building A Consensus, edited by W.M. Miner and D.E. Hathaway Industry Assistance Reform and the Labour Market: The New Zealand Experience, by R. Blandy and M. Baker