Copying, superstars, and artistic creation

We provide a new perspective on the impact of unauthorized copying and copy levies on artistic creation. Our analysis emphasizes three aspects of artistic markets: the predominance of superstars, the important role of promotion expenditures, and the difficulties of talent-sorting. In the short run, piracy reduces superstars’ earnings and market share and increases the number of niche and young artists. In the long run, copying can also have a positive effect on high-quality artistic creation by helping more young artists start their careers, which increases the number of highly talented artists in subsequent periods. The long-term impact of levies on copy equipment on artistic creation depends on whether their yields primarily accrue to superstars who already receive rents or are allocated to help young artists.     

Social motives in intergroup conflict: Group identity and perceived target of threat

We experimentally test the social motives behind individual participation in intergroup conflict by manipulating the perceived target of threat—groups or individuals—and the symmetry of conflict. We find that behavior in conflict depends on whether one is harmed by actions perpetrated by the out-group, but not on one׳s own influence on the outcome of the out-group. The perceived target of threat dramatically alters decisions to participate in conflict. When people perceive their group to be under threat, they are mobilized to do what is good for the group and contribute to the conflict. On the other hand, if people perceive to be personally under threat, they are driven to do what is good for themselves and withhold their contribution. The first phenomenon is attributed to group identity, possibly combined with a concern for social welfare. The second phenomenon is attributed to a novel victim effect. Another social motive—reciprocity—is ruled out by the data.     

Does travel inspire? Evidence from the superstars of modern art

This paper investigates whether travel increases the value of paintings produced by modern visual artists. The analysis is based on the 214 most prominent modern visual artists born between 1850 and 1945 and auction records of their paintings over the past 20 years. We find that artworks produced in the year of a journey are 7% more valuable than paintings produced in periods with no travel. We attribute this effect to human capital investments, knowledge spillovers and inspiration from the travel destination itself. There are persistent, but declining benefits to travel over the subsequent 4 years. The analysis shows that the impact of travel is smaller for later periods as modern art becomes more abstract. The effect on the value of paintings differs depending on the purpose of a journey: work-related, recreational and politically motivated journeys have a positive contemporaneous effect on value, whereas educational journeys have a negative effect. In addition, we find that France, Germany and the United States are the most frequently visited destinations for modern artists and also yield considerable benefits during times of strong innovation.     

内蕴与表象的对话——发现和锤炼油画风景写生的视觉经验

通过油画风景写生与创作,把画家内在特质从客观自然景观中分离出来,并加以锤炼。尊重主体内心,在作画过程中达到物我交流、形神兼备、酣畅贯气的意境,既有鲜活的生活底蕴又充分表现出生动驾驭客体的创造能力,将视像中的形状、质地、肌理、节奏转换成绘画表现语言,使其内在精神世界得以升华。     

Resource scarcity,effort allocation and environmental security: An agent-based theoretical approach

It is widely feared that environmental degradation induced by climate change may lead to economic and political insecurity through channels such as resource scarcity and mass migration. In this paper, we have developed an agent-based model to study whether resource scarcity is likely to lead to an increase in the appropriation of resources in environments where adaptive agents can allocate a fraction of their effort to predatory behavior. By enriching a production and conflict model through the introduction of separate product and resource appropriations, we show how boundedly-rational agents capable of learning can update their adaptive expectations and optimize their allocation decisions using a genetic framework. Arising from a few simple rules, the results show a high level of complexity in agents' allocation behavior with outputs ranging from no statistically significant allocation changes to widespread conflict in the environment, depending on the initial conditions and the nature of the scenarios. Overall the results support previous empirical findings that the main link between resource scarcity and conflict is through changes in the distribution of resources rather than their overall availability.     

A Simultaneous-Equations Model of Trade, Conflict, and Cooperation

A simultaneous-equations model is developed for the reciprocal relationship among bilateral trade value, conflict, and cooperation by modeling the actions of exporters, importers, and governments. The model is estimated separately for each of the dyads among the US, the USSR, China, Japan, and (West) Germany for the yearly data from 1948 to 1992. The direction of the effects of conflict or cooperation on trade and that of trade on conflict or cooperation are generally mixed, as expected. Certain reciprocal relationship patterns emerge depending on whether countries belong to the East or West block.     

Learning,diversification and the nature of risk

In many economic settings, faster learning is achievable only through greater exposure to risk. We study this conflict in the context of project choice, where a risk-averse agent must choose whether to invest in two projects of the same type (focus) or of different types (diversification). Focus enables faster learning across periods, but is riskier due to common type-specific shocks. Optimal choice involves balancing these two considerations. We show that focus is preferred for intermediate learning speeds, and that higher prior uncertainty may encourage focus. Thus, what matters for the focus-diversification choice is not only the level of risk, but also whether the risk is permanent or can be “learned away.” We are grateful to two anonymous referees, Serkan Bahceci, Steve Cecchetti, Adam Jaffe, Bojan Jovanovic, Kala Krishna, Blake LeBaron, Rachel McCulloch, Yana Rodgers, participants at the 2004 AEA-CSWEP Meetings and the 2003 North East Universities Development Conference, and seminar participants at Brandeis University for comments and suggestions.     

个人主义、利益分配与集体利益的实现条件

由理性个体组成的团体在怎样的情况下可以实现集体的利益?文章基于个人主义的方法论,从利益分配的视角推导了集体利益得以实现的一般条件。研究表明:作为社会状态"理想类型"的集体利益,其得以实现的条件依次可以表述为:分配冲突的公正解决、个体正义性条件、零贪婪激励、正义规则对贪婪的抑制与规则选择冲突的公正解决等五个方面。探索集体利益实现的一般原理对于如何选择和设计适当的制度以实现人类社会的理想目标具有重要的规范含义。     

EXCHANGE RATE STABILISATION, LEARNING AND THE TAYLOR PRINCIPLE

The paper explores whether central banks can keep their interest rates independent from given foreign rates, and to what extent interest policies designed to stabilise nominal exchange rate changes can be applied instead of, or in addition to, the traditional interest rate response to inflation gaps. This modification of a Taylor Rule is analysed in a simple macro model with some New Keynesian features. Information is imperfect; agents cannot build rational expectations but try to learn 'true' market relations. Results show that the Taylor Principle can be generalised in an open economy with flexible exchange rates.     

Did rainfall shocks cause civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa? The implications of data revisions

In their seminal paper, Miguel et al. (2004) found that negative rainfall shocks (measured as negative year-on-year rainfall growth) had caused civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa over the 1981–1999 period. Since then, the rainfall and conflict data they used had undergone multiple revisions. We show that rainfall shocks are no longer statistically significant for civil conflict when the revised data are used. This is true whether we employ a different functional form for rainfall, extend the sample to include more recent observations, use longer lags for rainfall shocks, employ dynamic panel regression, or panel regressions that take into account of cross-sectional dependence. Using rainfall shocks as instruments for growth, we also find that growth is insignificant for civil conflict if the revised data are used. Upon further investigation, we find that updates in the rainfall and conflict data for one or a few countries may alone cause rainfall shocks to lose statistical significance.     

Location matters: Estimating cluster premiums for prominent modern artists

This paper shows that ‘location matters’ in terms of premiums on creative clusters and peak ages. The analysis is based on the 214 most prominent modern visual artists born 1850-1945 and the art clusters of Paris and New York. Auction records of the past 20 years are used to estimate the value of artworks over an artist's career. The overall cluster premium for paintings produced in Paris and New York is found to be 11% and 43%, respectively; paintings made in Paris during the First World War have a premium of 14% while those produced between 1946 and 1975 have a premium of 27%. New York offers premiums for paintings produced there for all periods after the First World War, peaking at 74% between 1946 and 1975. When decomposing this premium, we find that quality rather than quantity of artists in the location is driving the results. It is argued that artists working in a cluster location reach a peak in the age-price profile of their work significantly earlier than artists working elsewhere.     

Costs of civil war and fragile states in Africa

This paper provides an analysis of the costs of conflict for the countries that are most affected by it, namely low‐income and fragile countries in Africa. It provides an analysis of the impact of conflict on economic growth using a panel of African countries and investigates the differences between those categorized as fragile and others. It finds that there are significant differences, with fragile countries most affected by conflict. It also considers the potential spillover effects of conflict and finds that fragile states also suffer more from conflicts within neighboring states. Finally, it considers whether the results are robust to endogeneity of the conflict variable. Using instrumental variable estimation confirms the negative effect of conflict and the larger effects on fragile states and gives even larger coefficient estimates.     

Viewpoint: On the generalizability of lab behaviour to the field

Abstract.  We can think of no question more fundamental to experimental economics than understanding whether, and under what circumstances, laboratory results generalize to naturally occurring environments. In this paper, we extend Levitt and List (2006) to the class of games in which financial payoffs and 'doing the right thing' are not necessarily in conflict. We argue that behaviour is crucially linked to not only the preferences of people, but also the properties of the situation. By doing so, we are able to provide a road map of the psychological and economic properties of people and situations that might interfere with generalizability of laboratory result from a broad class of games.     

Resource Management and the Mayor's Guarantee in French Water Allocation

This paper uses standard methods in stochastic calculus tomeasure the cost of the agency conflict that pits electedofficials of French municipalities against the communities theyrepresent in the management of the water supply. Under the Frenchlegal code, the municipalities are responsible for the watersupply and the elected officials are personally liable for anydamage due to negligence on their part. Uncertainty regardingexactly how negligence will be defined by the courts puts theelected officials in a precarious position. By delegatingauthority to an oligopoly of private firms, however, electedofficials can eliminate their personal liability, which istransferred to the delegated firm. Many studies argue thatdelegation locks communities into long-term contracts that areagainst their better interests. Thus, the agency conflict mayaffect the delegation decision to the detriment of the community.To determine whether or not this is true it is necessary to knowthe economic cost of the mayor's personal liability.     

Prospect Theory,Fairness, and the Escalation of Conflict at a Negotiation Impasse*

We study a bilateral negotiation set-up where, at a bargaining impasse, the disadvantaged party chooses whether to escalate the conflict or not. Escalation is costly for both parties, and it results in a random draw of the winner of the escalated conflict. We derive the behavioral predictions of a simple social utility function, which is convex in disadvantageous inequality, thus connecting the inequity aversion and the prospect theory models. Our causal laboratory evidence is, to a large extent, consistent with the predicted effects. Among other things, the model predicts that the escalation rate is higher when escalation outcomes are riskier, and that the disagreement rate is lower when the cost of escalating the conflict is higher.     

企业高层管理团队冲突管理方式:理论及证据

应对任务型冲突和关系型冲突,高层管理团队成员采用何种冲突管理方式应对才是最优的?对118家企业的调查数据分析表明:合作方式有助于任务型冲突正面功能发挥,抑制其负面效应;回避方式会加剧两类冲突的负向作用,妥协方式能够抑制关系型冲突的负面效应。     

Copyright protection and hardware taxation

This paper investigates the recently practiced method of taxing hardware and transferring the proceeds to software makers, or artists in general. We characterize the conditions under which the policy of compensating copyright owners for infringements on their intellectual property using hardware taxation is inefficient.     

“第九届(2020年)数量经济学国际学术会议(中国·长春)”预告

“第九届(2020年)数量经济学国际学术会议(中国·长春)”将于7月3日—5日在中国长春举办,会议英文名称为:The Ninth International Symposium of Quantitative Economics,2020(Changchun,China)。本次会议重点关注数量经济学理论、方法的最新进展及其在经济学各领域的应用,欢迎交流经济学、管理学和金融学各个领域的研究成果。会议将致力于为经济学、管理学和金融学研究不同领域的专家学者提供高水平学术交流的国际化平台,会议期间将分别设立中英文会场和不同专题的论文报告专场,并在会议前后邀请部分海内外知名学者开设“吉大数量经济学国际讲习班”。欢迎广大学者和研究生踊跃投稿参会,鼓励向会议协办期刊投稿,同时也欢迎各出版机构参会介绍和征订教材学术著作。     

The state of Portuguese research in economics: an analysis based on publications in international journals

In this paper I analyze the state of Portuguese research in economics based on publications in international journals for the period of 1986 to 2000. I find that scientific production is increasing but productivity remains low. I also provide a revealing characterization of the production habits of Portuguese researchers by answering the following questions: where do Portuguese researchers publish? who are the most active publishers? how often do they publish? how much do they collaborate? what is their background? Finally, I analyze the impact of that research based on citation counts.Received: July 2001, Accepted: November 2001, Mathematics Subject Classification: A10, A14I would like to acknowledge the helpful comments of the Editor, Paulo Brito, as well as Ana Rute Cardoso, Clara Dismuke, João Santos Silva, Octávio Figueiredo, Pedro Pita Barros and Pedro Portugal.     

Women's Paid Work and Intimate Partner Violence: Insights from Tanzania

Theoretical and empirical research provide conflicting views on whether women who do paid work are less at risk from violence by an intimate partner in low- and middle-income countries. Economic household-bargaining models propose increased access to monetary resources will enhance women's “agency” and hence their bargaining power within the household, which reduces their vulnerability to intimate-partner violence. Feminist theorists also argue, however, that culture, context, and social norms can impede women's ability to access and benefit from employment. This study uses semi-structured interviews conducted in 2009 to explore the implications of paid work among women market traders in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya, Tanzania. While in this sample, informal-sector work did not result in women being able to fully exercise agency, their access to money did have a positive effect on their lives and reduced one major source of conflict and trigger for violence: that of negotiating money from men.