就业形势基本稳定但结构性矛盾突出——基于中国民生调查数据的分析

本文根据国务院发展研究中心“中国民生调查”调查数据,课题组针对2015年民生问题进行了全国范围5.1万份电话调查和8省份1.3万份入户调查.调查结果显示,2015年我国整体就业形势与2014年相比基本稳定,城镇地区失业率与2014年持平,农村地区失业率略有上升,转移劳动力回流农村的现象不明显,但也存在产业结构调整带来结构性失业压力、部分区域就业压力较大、一些地区国企就业比重被动上升等突出问题.     

法国取消富人税的启示

法国总统奥朗德在2012年竞选时提出的"特别团结捐",即"超级富人税"在2013年、2014年实施后,出现了为逃避高额税收而改换国籍、移民海外的现象,导致了资本外流、就业岗位丧失和税基萎缩,损害了法国企业的竞争力。两年来,法国的经济持续低迷,失业率在2014年11月创了新高,而2013年和2014年"超级富人税"的收入分别只有2.6亿欧元和1.6亿欧元。在这种情况下,奥朗德政府调整了经济政策,     

就业保护与劳动力市场绩效——基于跨国面板数据的实证分析

本文采用世界经济自由度指数和世界银行的世界发展指标,选取2002-2008年面板数据对就业保护的理论假说和经验分析进行了相应的验证。实证结果表明,就业保护提高了失业率,女性和青年受就业保护制度的影响程度更大;就业保护子指标对失业率的影响与理论估计一致,但显著性较低。其中,雇佣/解雇管制越低,失业率越低;法定解雇成本越高,失业率越低;服兵役时间越长,失业率越高;最低工资、集体协商、工时管制与失业率之间没有显著关系。就业保护问题的研究有助于改进我国的劳动立法,改善女性、青年的就业机会,提高就业率,发挥法律的增进市场效率的作用,为完善劳动力市场的运行机制提供理论支持。     

创业与失业:难民效应与企业家效应的实证检验

本文利用广东省21个地区1991-2007年面板数据,对自雇创业率与失业率的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,失业率变化对自雇创业率变化影响不显著,而自雇创业率变化对随后的失业率变化有显著的负向影响。这一结果支持了创业可降低失业的企业家效应假说,并不支持高失业率会影响自雇创业率的难民效应假说。上述发现从经验证据上支持了我国当前实施的"以创业带动就业"的扩大就业发展战略的合理性,并蕴含着一定的政策含义。     

法国取消富人税的启示

法国总统奥朗德在2012年竞选时提出的“特别团结捐”,即“超级富人税”在2013年、2014年实施后,出现了为逃避高额税收而改换国籍、移民海外的现象,导致了资本外流、就业岗位丧失和税基萎缩,损害了法国企业的竞争力.两年来,法国的经济持续低迷,失业率在2014年11月创了新高,而2013年和2014年“超级富人税”的收入分别只有2.6亿欧元和1.6亿欧元.在这种情况下,奥朗德政府调整了经济政策,为减轻企业负担和刺激投资取消该税.     

让·梯若尔:获奖于“规制冶、远不止于“规制冶

正2014年10月13日北京时间19时,地球彼端的瑞典皇家科学院宣布将2014年度诺贝尔经济学奖独立授予法国籍经济学家、图卢兹经济学院的让·梯若尔(Jean Tirole)教授,表彰他对"市场力量和规制的分析冶,颁奖委员会还追加了一句话,让·梯若尔也是"我们这个时代最具影响力的经济学家之一冶。让·梯若尔,1953年生于法国Troyes,1978年获巴黎第九大学数学决策博士,后又仅用3年于1981年在美国麻省理工学院获得经济学博士,之前还获得过法国理工和国立路桥学院两处工程师学位。无疑,今年61岁的梯若尔教授和他的学术合作伙伴们是新规制经济学的开创     

努力建立政府促进就业的长效机制

党的十七届四中全会指出了就业是民生之本,安国之策,解决好就业问题,是实现社会和谐的一个重要关键。发展是解决就业问题的根本。只有正确处理发展经济与就业增长的关系,才能在市场经济条件下确定经济发展战略时坚持"就业优先论",把降低失业率、开发就业岗位作为首要目标。     

重新解读奥肯定律对我国“高增长、低就业”现象的适用性

本文在对我国城镇单位就业人数指标和真实产出指标季度数据分两个区间进行实证分析的基础上,得出反映周期性失业率和真实产出缺口关系的奥肯定律在我国同样适用的结论。发现与奥肯系数紧密相关的周期性就业弹性系数不仅在两个数据区间估值比较接近,并且我国的估值与美国和加拿大的估值也比较接近。通过对长期均衡下就业弹性系数的计算,发现我国存在周期性就业弹性系数远远大于长期就业弹性系数的现象,而这正是我国"高增长、低就业"现象的一个反映,其产生的原因在于我国结构性失业率较高。     

当前就业难题的成因与题解

自1996年我国成功实现经济软着陆以来，宏观经济的运行发生了很大的变化，通货膨胀得到有效的抑制，物价涨幅明显回落，但是就业形势也日益严峻。截止2002年6月底，国有企业下岗职工达463万。城镇登记失业人数达733万，城镇登记失业率达3．8％，如果把1．5亿农村富余人口算在里面，则失业率高达20％多。就业问题已经成为一个非解决不可的问题了。     

大力发展小企业促进我国当前就业

根据有关部门的资料显示 ,2 0 0 2年我国的城镇登记人口失业率为 3 .8% ,但这并不包括未登记失业和隐性失业。文章详细分析了我国当前的就业形势的特点 ,并对小企业促进就业进行了分析 ,同时提出相应措施。     

Financial survey. Retirement funding falls again

Doctors can do more to overcome the lagging pension plan growth reflected in our data.     

Medical Board Regulation of Physician Licensure: Is Excessive Malpractice Sanctioned?

This paper considers the deterrent effect that self-regulation has on a patients propensity to sue under malpractice law. A model of tort-driven self regulation is developed and its implications are examined using data on the disciplinary actions of the Florida Medical Board and data on closed malpractice claims. Doctors who in 1987-1991 generated abnormal rates of malpractice claims had a higher rate of disciplinary actions in the following period 1992-1995. Significantly, the evidence suggests that the Board may also be more likely to discipline older physicians and non-certified practitioners, perhaps in response to special interests of industry members.     

Making part-time practice work--for all concerned.

Doctors are embracing reduced schedules. But issues such as call, overhead, productivity, and partnership remain.     

How managed care is roiling internal medicine

Doctors at the American College of Physicians; annual meeting could talk about little else. We gathered advice there for surviving the marketplace turmoil. We also conducted a poll on job satisfaction (page 31).     

Are computers driving real wages down?

The annual growth in mean employee compensation plummeted from 2.6% in 1947–73 to 0.4% in 1973–2003. Using both time-series regression and pooled, cross-section, time-series regression analysis for 44 industries over the period 1953–2000, we find that earnings growth is positively related to overall productivity growth, capital investment excluding computers, and the unionization rate. We find also that computerization has a significant negative effect on earnings growth, but no evidence that the growth of skills or educational attainment has any statistically significant effect on earnings growth. The dominant factors explaining the slowdown in wage growth are decline in the unionization rate, slowdown in both TFP growth and overall capital investment, and acceleration in computer investment.     

A quantitative analysis of Turkish Private Education Reform

A recent education policy Turkish government is wishing to undertake is to shut down all private supplementary education centers (SECs) unless SECs manage to convert into a private school. With this policy, the government is willing to increase equality of opportunity among students. We show quantitatively that the policy, in fact, leads to a decrease in equality of opportunity since SECs are given the option to convert into private schools. We use a political economy model of education at which households, heterogeneous with respect to exogenously set income, choose among a continuum of private schools differentiated by tuition and a public school. Households choosing the public school can privately supplement their child's education spending in any amount. Public school is free of charge, and its spending is financed by income tax revenue collected from all households. Income tax rate is determined by majority voting. Achievement of a child depends only on educational spending. We calibrate the model's parameters by matching certain targets from 2013 Turkish data. We then exogenously restrict the supplemental education spending to zero in a counterfactual experiment. We find that variance of achievement (or inequality of opportunity) increases by 23.51% and mean achievement decreases by 1.74%.     

Does the early bird catch the worm? The effect of school starting age on educational attainment and labor market outcomes: Evidence from Chinese urban twins data

This paper estimates the effects of school starting age (SSA) on educational attainment and labor market outcomes by using unique urban adult twins data from China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates indicate that late enrollment in primary school lowers years of education, earnings, wage rate, and probability of employment. However, when we use the within-monozygotic (MZ)-twin fixed effects method to exclude unobservable endowments and family factors, the effects of SSA on years of education become less negative. For earnings, wage rate, and the probability of employment, the within-twin fixed effects estimates become insignificant. The results indicate that a one-year delay in primary school starting age lowers schooling by 0.51 years but does not affect earnings, wage rate, or probability of employment. The difference between OLS and within-MZ-twin fixed effects estimates indicates that the negative return to SSA is due to unobservable family variables and omitted individual-specific endowments. We further find that the earlier primary school starters fail to obtain a level of education with high return. Specifically, early birds do not have a high probability of getting a vocational school degree or above.     

The effects of heavily indebted poor countries initiative (HIPC) on millennium development goals (MDGs) for education

In this study, we employ the difference in difference approach to estimate the impact of heavily indebted poor countries initiative on Millennium Development Goals for education in Africa. Using the World Bank data for the period 1990–2015, the studies further identifies other factors that contribute to the achievement of millennium development goals for education. For instance, because of HPIC, the level of the following education MDGs indicators increased: gross enrollment in primary school (21.69%), female-to-male ratio (8.68%) and primary completion rate (13.69). Our study also show that the probability to achieve the millennium development goals for education increases in: female primary education teachers; school enrollment in tertiary, private school enrollment; pupil–teacher ratio; control of corruption and political stability and decreases with increase in the rural population. In this perspective, government of African countries should promote governance, subsidy private schools and recruit female teachers.     

论终身教育理念与成人教育革新

终身教育是一种理念,它的本质特征是强调教育的终身性、系统性、连续性和整体性。成人教育是传统学校教育向终身教育发展的一种新型教育制度,是我国教育的重要组成部分,但目前存在许多阻碍终身教育体系建构的消极因素。成人教育改革一是要牢固树立终身学习的思想,培养终身学习能力;二是要加快成人教育的立法工作;三是要淡化成人教育的学历化倾向;四是要充分利用社会教育资源;五是要加强成人职业教育和培训。     

开放式创新社区中用户交互反馈对个体创新贡献度的影响

开放社区中的用户交互反馈是用户创新活动的重要组成部分，基于需求满足理论，研究其他用户反馈对个体创新贡献度的影响。结合典型开放式产品设计社区——Local Motors平台，采用数据挖掘方法，从数量、质量和情感3个方面研究开放式创新社区中FOU对个体创新贡献度的影响。结果表明，反馈数量和质量均对个体创新贡献度有显著影响，其中反馈次数对个体创新贡献度有显著正向影响，反馈率和反馈人员多样性对个体创新贡献度有显著负向影响，反馈长度和反馈支持文件对个体创新贡献度没有影响，正向情感倾向在用户反馈和个体创新贡献度之间无任何调节作用。