长江干线集装箱港口体系集中度演进分析

通过梳理长江干线港口集装箱发展历程,以长江干线21个主要港口为研究对象,选取1984—2016年各港口集装箱吞吐量,运用集中度法则,研究了长江干线集装箱港口体系的演进过程与发展特征,判别了竞合关系。结果表明:(1)长江干线集装箱港口体系的集中度总体呈下降趋势,港口间的竞争加剧;(2)集中度的变化轨迹呈现快速扩散、缓慢分散、稳步集中、再次分散、再次集中等5个阶段性特征,揭示了长江干线集装箱运输经历了由枢纽港占支配地位,到地区性港口迅速成长、集装箱港口体系均衡稳定的变化过程;(3)长江干线集装箱运输市场处于低度寡占型,但逐渐朝着充分竞争态势发展;(4)长江干线集装箱港口体系空间分布趋于均衡,空间格局具有较好的稳定性,形成了较为稳定的上中下游多中心并存的集装箱运输网络,重庆、武汉、南京、苏州等区域性枢纽港,在长江干线集装箱港口体系的演进中起主导作用。     

美国集装箱港口体系演进过程研究

以美国集装箱港口体系的相对集中度为标准,通过计算1970--2009年的赫芬达尔一赫希曼指数,在参考1970--2009年美国集装箱港口数量、集装箱吞吐量以及港口的空间变化基础上,将美国集装箱港口体系演进过程划分为四个阶段,即1970---1981。年的快速分散阶段、1981--1995年的缓慢分散阶段、1995--2006年的缓慢集中阶段以及2006--2009年的再次分散阶段。从美国集装箱港口体系的演进过程中可以发现,美国集装箱港口体系发展存在周期性;并在1995年之后形成了较为稳定的多中心的集装箱港口网络,且某一区域的货运中心并非都是一港独大的。     

中国沿海集装箱港口群体系结构演化与竞争态势

利用赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数和偏离—份额分析法,基于港口体系和竞争理论,对中国沿海集装箱港口群2000—2013年的港口体系结构演化与竞争态势分析。研究结果表明,我国港口群体系格局从集中到分散演变,形成珠三角、长三角和环渤海地区港口群三足鼎立格局,港口群之间竞争激烈;目前港口群的竞争优势主要受腹地经济因素影响;香港港、广州港、深圳港和厦门港在全国港口体系中具有较强竞争优势。     

地区经济、交通基础设施与集装箱港口体系集中度变迁——基于1979-2010年中美集装箱港口体系的对比研究

在中美集装箱港口体系集中度变迁呈现趋同特征的事实分析基础上,采用质量竞争模型,从理论上研究了变迁的普遍因素,并进一步通过中美1979—2010年对比研究得出:集装箱港口体系的集中度主要受到沿海地区经济发展水平不均衡的影响;省间(州际)的交通基础设施网络分布差异也会使得集装箱集疏运体系分散化发展;相对于已经形成网络的美国铁路运输,我国港口的铁路里程的不均衡性仍然制约着港口体系进一步发展。     

我国沿海集装箱港口体系的空间结构及演化

以我国沿海34个主要集装箱港口为研究对象,选取2005—2013年各港口集装箱吞吐量,采用赫希曼—赫芬达尔指数、ArcGIS空间自相关研究方法,研究沿海港口体系的空间结构及其演化过程。结果表明:1沿海集装箱港口吞吐量的集中度日趋分散,港口间的竞争加剧,各港口群内部集中度表现不一致。2空间结构整体呈弱空间分散格局,除西南港口群外,其它各港口群枢纽港已形成。     

不同管控模式对港口空间结构和交易效率的影响比较——以中国沿海港口群为例

以中国沿海五大港口群为研究对象,利用中国沿海五大港口群1994—2012年的赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数和1994—2012年的上市港口企业交易效率数据,比较不同港口管控模式对港口空间结构和交易效率的影响。研究结果表明:港口管控模式从中央主导改为地方主导,港口群集装箱集中度普遍下降,港口空间结构趋于分散。港口管控模式为市场主导时,港口空间结构趋于稳定。不同港口群集装箱集中度下降幅度不一样,其中环渤海港口群、西南沿海港口群、东南沿海港口群集装箱集中度下降较小,珠三角港口群集装箱集中度下降居中,长三角港口群集装箱集中度下降较大。港口交易效率具有规模经济,且呈阶梯式特征。沿海港口在不同体制下的交易效率呈现"市场主导模式中央政府主导模式当地政府主导模式"。由此进一步得出结论:近几年沿海省市开展的省内港口整合运动,实质是实施省级政府主导管控模式,将可以实现省内港口分工合理、优势互补、相互协作、竞争有序,沿海相邻省份之间的港口竞争更加激烈和无序,不能使"港口群内部和港口群之间港口分工合理、优势互补、相互协作、竞争有序。     

跨国公司对发展中东道国市场集中效应的分析

本文利用库诺特数量竞争的扩展模型,就跨国公司对发展中东道国市场集中效应的内在机理进行了分析,并对跨国公司在中国汽车产业的市场集中效应进行了实证检验,指出在我国市场结构表现为低集中、分散竞争的形态下,促进跨国公司对我国投资可以作为实现市场适度集中的重要举措之一,但为防止跨国公司在我国市场上形成垄断地位从而采取不利于市场有效竞争的垄断行为,提出了引进"寡占反应"型跨国公司投资等具体对策.     

我国装备制造业市场集中度实证分析

本文通过2004—2007年国民经济行业分类(GB/T4754-2002)中的176个4位数产业的CR4和CR8数据,考察了装备制造业的市场集中度情况,并据此界定了装备制造业的市场结构类型。实证分析结果显示,我国装备制造业的市场集中度处于一个较高的水平,而且2004—2007年的市场集中度呈现快速上升态势;根据贝恩及植草益的市场结构分类标准,2007年我国装备制造业整体为中、高寡占型市场结构;从其7个子行业来看,专用设备制造业和仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业分别属于中(上)集中寡占型和高集中寡占型的市场结构,其他5个子行业都属于中(下)寡占型市场结构。     

长三角港口体系主要货类结构时空演变分析

以长三角地区19个主要港口为研究对象,运用赫希曼—赫芬达尔指数分析2004—2012年主要货类吞吐量的集中度变化趋势,并采用探索性空间数据分析方法研究主要货类吞吐量的空间演变特征。结果表明:2004—2012年煤炭、石油以及集装箱的集中度呈现下降趋势。煤炭吞吐量出现空间分散格局向空间集聚演变的趋势,但集聚效应不显著;石油吞吐量出现空间相关性增加的趋势;集装箱吞吐量未出现明显的空间集聚或分散效应。     

我国银行业市场结构实证分析

文章通过对银行业市场结构的主要测度指标市场份额、行业集中度(CRn)、赫芬达尔(HHI)指数对中国银行业的市场结构进行实证分析,分析得出,中国银行业的市场结构在2002年前一直是极高寡占型,到2005年,市场结构演变成为寡占II型,即高度集中寡占型;从动态来看,中国银行业的市场结构尽管有着朝垄断竞争发展的趋势,但国有商业银行的垄断势力不会在短期内消失,实质性的改变还需要假以时日。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.