Trajectories of Russian manufacturing firms’ growth after the global financial crisis of 2008–2009: the role of restructuring efforts and regional institutional environment

The aim of this article is to conduct an empirical investigation and reveal which types of modernisation strategies and characteristics of regional institutional environment are likely to be associated with patterns of the performance of Russian manufacturing firms in 2007–2012. In addition to estimating the impact of ex-ante behaviour on the rate of sales growth, we use hierarchical cluster analysis to reveal the typical trajectories of firms’ sales growth. We find that the dynamic of sales for more than 90% of firms can be described by just two types of performance curve: (a) crisis decline with recovery and growth; and (b) crisis decline with weak recovery and stagnation. Firms that invested more prior to the crisis and implemented active restructuring were more likely to have positive post-crisis dynamics of sales. We find evidence that firms in the regions with lower levels of corruption (both administrative and everyday) were more likely to recover successfully after the crisis.     

When Borch's Theorem Does Not Apply: Some Key Implications of Market Incompleteness,with Policy Relevance Today

Markets are incomplete when the assets available to the agents do not span the space of future contingencies. In that case, competitive equilibria on the markets for assets and commodities fail (generically) to be constrained efficient. Pareto‐superior allocations can be implemented through price/wage rigidities and quantity constraints. However, nominal rigidities are conducive to multiple equilibria, implying endogenous macroeconomic uncertainties that compound the primitive (exogenous) uncertainties. This paper defines a temporary general equilibrium for which there exists a set of equilibria defining an inflation – unemployment locus. Various policy implications are drawn, with relevance to the current crisis.     

Financial Constraints and the Extensive and Intensive Margin of Firm Exports: Panel Data Evidence from China

Some theoretical work suggests credit constraints to hamper exports while other work suggests that they deter firms' sales at large. Hence, credit constraints might reduce the export–sales ratio or not. This paper assesses the role of credit constraints for the export–sales ratio at the firm level. We explore this hypothesis empirically, using cross‐section and panel data on Chinese enterprises compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. We approximate credit constraints by a firm's ratio of liquid debt to sales and, alternatively, the ratio of liquid assets to total assets. In particular, we estimate the impact of these financial fundamentals on the extensive and the intensive margins of firm‐level exports in two‐part fractional response models. Fixed effects panel regressions point to a negative relationship between export–sales ratios and credit constraints only at the extensive margin.     

Do asset sales lead to improvements in operating performance?

The changes in operating performance associated with asset sales are investigated for a sample of UK firms. Asset sales are followed by an improvement of 11% per annum in the level of operating performance relative to the pre-sale performance level. Further, improved abnormal operating performance is found, which is measured after controlling for the performance of the industry, the pre-sale performance of the firm and the level of competition in the market for asset sales. The abnormal operating performance of the remaining assets improve by 2.4% per annum, on average, for three years after the asset sales. This study also finds that the market for asset sales is imperfectly competitive.     

Liquidity and Twin Crises

This paper proposes a simple analytical framework for understanding 'twin crises'– i.e. crises where a currency crisis and banking crisis occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. The distinguishing feature of such crises is the spill‐over effects across financial institutions through collateral constraints, declines in market values of assets, currency mismatches on the balance sheet and the endogenous amplification of financial distress through asset sales. We explore the role of liquidity and the role of monetary policy in such crises. In particular, a central question is whether raising interest rates in the face of a twin crisis is the appropriate policy response. Raising interest rates has two countervailing effects. Holding the domestic currency becomes more attractive (other things being equal), but the value of the domestic banking system falls due to the fall in asset prices. When assets are marked to market, there is a potential for endogenously generated financial distress that leads to a collapse of asset prices, as well as the exchange rate. It is thus possible that raising interest rates can have the perverse effect of exacerbating both the currency crisis and the banking crisis.     

大数据系统实施对企业绩效影响的实证研究

以66家实施了大数据系统的上市企业为样本对象,通过t检验和Wilcoxon秩和检验,分析大数据系统实施对企业营运绩效和盈利绩效的影响。研究结果表明,在大数据系统实施当年,企业库存周转率和销售净利率不升反降,但在系统实施后1~2年均显著增长;总资产周转率在实施当年和实施后第1年为负增长,而在实施后第2年正向增长但不显著;总资产报酬率在大数据系统实施后2年没有提升。总资产周转率和总资产报酬率在系统实施后2年均未明显提高的原因可能在于,大数据系统实施的巨额成本对企业利润具有分摊效应。     

International Transmission of the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan

We investigate the international transmission of the 2007–2009 financial crisis to Japanese firms by examining both stock returns and changes in operating performance during the crisis. Our results indicate that Japanese firms were affected by the crisis mainly through the trade channel in both stock returns and changes in operating performance. We also find that the liquidity channel played a role in the fall of stock returns in response to the crisis and in the changes in return on assets during the first year of the crisis. We obtain weak evidence for the credit crunch channel and no evidence to support the trade finance channel.     

Diversity among Norwegian Boards of Directors: Does a Quota for Women Improve Firm Performance?

Exploiting the Norwegian boards of directors’ quota reform of 2003, this study evaluates the impact of increased diversity on firm performance. Applying difference-in-difference approaches to accounting data covering the period 2003–07, the paper compares the return on assets for non-finance public limited companies (PLCs) and ordinary limited companies (LTDs), whereof only the former were affected by the reform. The impact of the reform on firm performance is negligible. Neither changed return on total assets (ROA) nor changed operating revenues and cost can be attributed to the reform. However, following the reform PLCs have to a larger extent accumulated capital, financed by debt or by a combination of debt and own capital.     

Credit constraints and margins of import: first evidence for German manufacturing enterprises

This study uses tailor-made enterprise-level data for 2008–2010 from various sources for firms from manufacturing industries to test for the link between credit constraints, measured by a credit rating score provided by a leading credit rating agency, and imports in Germany for the first time. We find empirical evidence that a better credit rating score is positively related to extensive margins of import – firms with a better score have a higher probability to import, they import more goods and they source from more countries of origin. The intensive margin of imports – the share of imports in total sales – is found not to be related to credit constraints.     

Balance Sheet Effects, Growth, and Crises

This paper addresses two questions: are currency crises predicted by increases in a central bank’s external and contingent liabilities relative to assets, and do these “balance sheet effects” generate persistent output losses following a crisis? I find empirical evidence that the answer to both questions is yes. I use data on stocks of gross external assets and liabilities for 167 countries over 1973–2003, in an unbalanced panel probit regression to obtain robust estimates of the probability and determinants of a post‐crisis recession. Several single and simultaneous equation specifications support the idea that the output cost of a currency crisis depends on its transmission mechanism. Specifically, a recession is likely to be severe if it is preceded by a crisis that works its way through the financial sector. In addition, the results show that measures of contingent liabilities, capital flight, and lack of financial depth are significant predictors of costly crises.     

Judicial quality and regional firm performance: The case of Indian states

Higher quality institutions help a firm to invest in institutional-dependent inputs, which might affect a firm's performance. I use data for Indian manufacturing that matches state-by-state firm-level data with state-by-state data on particularly important institution – Judicial quality. Results show that judicial quality is a significant determinant of higher firm performance – both for exports and domestic sales. My most conservative estimate suggests that a 10% increase in judicial quality of a region helps to increase the sales of a firm by 1–2%. I explicitly control for the ‘selection’ effect by using a two-step Average Treatment Effect (ATE) procedure. The results also support my initial findings. My results are robust to a battery of robustness checks.     

Applying DEA, MPI, and grey model to explore the operation performance of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication industry

The study applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist productivity index (MPI) to explore the operation performances of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication companies from 2004 to 2007. The input variables are total assets, operation costs, and selling and administrative expenditures, while the output variable is net sales. The results show that if Taiwanese wafer fabrication companies want to increase their operation performances, they should improve their CRS and VRS efficiencies not scale efficiency. Furthermore, this paper utilizes GM (1,1) - one order and one variable in the grey model - to forecast the growth trend of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication industry from 2008 to 2010, and then employs GM (1,N) - one order and N variables in the grey model - to measure the influences of the input variables upon the output variable. This study demonstrates that the most influential factor for the output variable, net sales, is selling and administrative expenditures.     

FDI and pollution havens: Evidence from the Norwegian manufacturing sector

This is an empirical study of the firm and country determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) and how it is affected by the stringency of environmental regulations in host countries. We employ disaggregated data on sales by Norwegian multinationals' affiliates from 1999 to 2005 that allow such affiliates to be categorized as either efficiency-seeking (vertical) or market-seeking (horizontal) FDI. While the environmental stringency of a host country and its enforcement are found to have no effect on the average investment, we find a significant negative effect on multinationals with vertical motives. Compared to those located in lenient countries, the efficiency-seeking affiliates in more environmentally regulated countries receive less investment from their parent companies in terms of (i) equity capital, (ii) capital stock, and (iii) assets. We further find that the total exports from affiliates to parent companies in Norway decrease with the level of enforced environmental stringency in the host countries.     

开放售电背景下电力客户黏度的综合评价研究

内容提要：在售电侧放开的背景下,各类投资主体成立的售电公司越来越多地参与到售电市场的竞争中,因而如何有效地管控电力客户资源将成为售电公司需要深入研究的关键问题。鉴于此,本文开展面向售电公司的电力客户黏度综合评价研究。首先,明确电力客户黏度的涵义,进而分析电力客户黏度的重要影响因素,从客户行为、客户感知、客户依赖、客户信任四个方面建立售电公司的电力客户黏度评价指标体系；其次,构建AHP、熵值法相结合的组合赋权模型,进而构建开放售电背景下售电公司的电力客户黏度的模糊综合评价模型；最后,选取某地区的典型售电公司代表开展算例分析,算例结果表明,本文提出的评价模型具有实效性,对售电公司提升服务质量,实现长远发展具有重要意义。      

Nowcasting sales growth of manufacturing companies in India

The performance of private corporate sector is used as an important demand indicator for monetary policy making. As these data are received with a lag, assessing and monitoring of corporate sales on a real-time basis poses a significant challenge to policy makers in India. In this context, this article attempts to nowcast quarterly sales growth of Indian manufacturing companies and GDP growth of India using dynamic factor modelling framework. A multiple-level framework through turning point analysis and elastic net structure is used to overcome the overfitting problem during variable selection. Empirical results show improvement in forecast accuracy for one quarter ahead nowcast using 3-factor and 4-factor models over the benchmark model. However, absolute dominance of 3-factor models over 4-factor models was not established. As such, the article has proposed a forecast combination technique to nowcast sales growth of manufacturing companies in India.     

THE FUTURE OF THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY

Defense contractors in the United States face a painful choice between downsizing or investing in new high-risk commercial ventures. Past experience reveals numerous failed efforts to penetrate commercial markets and few, if any, successes.
The capabilities required to succeed in civilian business are fundamentally different from those needed to design and produce weapon systems. Defense firms and defense divisions of diversified corporations lack adequate knowledge of commercial products, production methods, advertising and distribution, financial approaches, and customer demand.
Given the outlook for a sustained decline in U.S. military spending, the author advises companies catering to military markets to cut their costs by reducing excess capacity. Smaller but more competitive positions can be achieved through restructuring, mergers, sales of assets, and, if necessary, closing down unneeded facilities. Firms that ignore the pleas for "conversion" and do not dissipate their assets in civilian markets alien to them stand the best chance of surviving during a period of reduced military demand.     

RETURN TO WINE: A COMPARISON OF THE HEDONIC,REPEAT SALES AND HYBRID APPROACHES

Comparisons between the return to wine and standard financial assets are complicated in that the return to wine must be estimated from infrequent sales of heterogeneous wine brands. Wine returns can be estimated using several different methods, and here the performance of the hedonic model, repeat sales model, and hybrid model are compared using 14,102 auction sale observations for Australian wine over the period 1988 to 2000. The results show that the hybrid model provides the most efficient estimates, and that the repeat sales model provides significantly higher total return estimates than the other two models.     

The Economic Impact of SFAS NO. 157

Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 157, “Fair Value Measurements,” (SFAS 157) defines fair value, establishes a three tiered framework for measuring fair value and expands the required disclosures about fair value measurements. The objective of this study is to examine and evaluate the benefits of the information disclosed by SFAS 157. The results of our study indicated that a large majority of the inputs are observable in that 93.5% of the sample financial assets and 93.1% of the sample financial liabilities were measured by level 1 or 2 criteria. However, we found a mismatch between assets and liabilities subject to the three tiers of fair value measurements. The companies in our sample disclosed $18.8 trillion in total assets, with 51%, or $18.8 trillion in total assets, with 51%, or 9.5 trillion reported at fair value. Whereas, sample company liabilities totaled 16.1 trillion with only16.1 trillion with only 3.7 trillion or 23% reported at fair value.     

Ownership and enterprise performance in the Russian oil industry, 1992–2012

This article examines enterprise performance in Russian oil companies between 1992 and 2012. The analysis is based upon longitudinal trend output data, and distinguishes between four different types of owners – outsider private, insider private, federal state and regional state. In comparison with previous studies which considered just 1999–2004, and identified outsider private companies as the best performers, this article finds that over the longer period 1992–2012 federal state and insider private-owned companies actually performed best. The explanation for this relates to institutions and the business environment.     

What are the bank-specific and macroeconomic drivers of banks’ leverage? Evidence from Luxembourg

We investigate the leverage cycle in Luxembourg’s banking sector using individual bank-level data for the period 2003 Q1–2010 Q1. One of our findings is that Luxembourg’s banks have a procyclical leverage. This procyclicality is not due to marking-to-market but because Luxembourg’s banks are liquidity providers to the EU banking sector. We then empirically investigate the role of bank characteristics as well as real, financial and expectation variables that proxy for macroeconomic conditions in the pre-crisis and crisis period. We find that off-balance sheet exposures have different effects in the pre-crisis and crisis period, and that the share of liquid assets in the portfolio only affects security holdings. As for macroeconomic variables, we find that the Euribor-OIS spread is a significant driver of the build-up in leverage in the pre-crisis period. The reason is that most banks in Luxembourg are either branches or subsidiaries. This makes leverage a less relevant indicator of riskiness for investors. It also implies that in times of liquidity shortages, mother companies or groups demand further liquidity from their branch or subsidiary. The downturn in leverage during the crisis can be accredited to reductions in expectations, which we proxy by an economic sentiment indicator. It can also be explained by increasing bond prices which induce depositors to shift their funds from bank deposits into bonds. We find no important role for GDP growth.