基于马克思社会再生产理论的供给侧结构性改革分析

需求侧管理的扩张性财政政策目前已经不再适合我国经济发展的实践,在经济总量持续增长的同时,结构问题日益突出,供给侧结构性改革的提出适逢其时,但传统供给学派大规模减税的主张并不适合中国的经济现实.马克思社会再生产理论的两大部类均衡原理已经充分阐明了在社会生产中,结构均衡和优化的重要性.因此,中国供给侧结构性改革必须着眼于经济结构调整和优化,着眼于长期经济发展,通过政策的制定和实施来实现供给和需求的均衡.     

社会权益关系、财税体制与供给侧结构性改革

当前供给侧结构性改革成效有限,究其根源在于社会权益关系结构严重失衡,财税体制作为链接社会各方权益关系的核心纽带,发挥着牵一发而动全身的功能.理解社会权益关系、财税体制与供给侧结构性改革之间的关系,是理解供给侧结构性改革脉络,把握中国经济未来走向的重要内容.     

供给侧改革的马克思主义经济学思考

供给侧改革是中央基于中国现实国情对国家治理思路做出的重要转向,着力从供给和需求双向发力,双轮驱动经济增长.供给侧改革的提出不仅有其现实基础,还有其深厚的理论渊源,是马克思主义政治经济学与中国实际相结合的结果.通过对供给侧结构性改革的马克思主义政治经济学再思考,为深入开展供给侧结构性改革研究提供理论启发.     

供给侧改革的若干理论问题与政策选择

该文围绕供给侧结构性改革的内涵与实际应用,从理论层面和政策分析角度作了多方面的论述。现实中国由于有效供给不足而导致大量需求处于闲置,供给侧改革核心在于扩大有效供给,而扩大有效供给的关键在于优化供给结构,优化供给结构的前提又在于完善生产要素供给。虽然供给管理与需求管理两者不可偏废,但改革近期重点是在供给一端;在厘清供给侧改革与供给经济学不同边界的同时,也要善于保持一个更加开放的心怀,积极吸收国外相关学说理论的合理成分以及政策实施的成功经验。文章还从不同的角度对供给侧改革的政策实施应用作了相应的分析和阐述,重点强调充分利用市场机制和政府减税的作用。     

马克思主义政治经济学与西方经济学关于供求关系分析的比较——兼谈我国供给侧结构性改革

坚持供给侧结构性改革是新时代建设现代化经济体系的主线,然而学界对这一课题的理论理解尚不一致。本文从三个方面对西方经济学和马克思主义政治经济学关于供求关系分析的方法进行比较研究,认为西方经济学关于供求关系的分析仅仅反映交换领域关系,抽象掉了社会生产关系;而马克思主义政治经济学则注重研究供求背后的生产、分配、交换和消费关系的总和。西方经济学认为供求关系决定价格,资源配置似乎都是在交换领域通过价格机制完成的;而马克思主义政治经济学则认为供求关系只能"调节"价格而不是"决定"价格,市场经济中的真实经济关系是价值决定价格,同时又调节供求关系,进而实现资源配置。西方经济学宏观领域研究的供求分析只是总量问题,并不区分个量与总量在性质上的差别,更没有认识到数量背后深层的结构和比例关系;而马克思主义政治经济学则认为社会再生产在"数量"的背后还包括了结构和比例问题。其重要启示在于:认识供给侧不能停留在交换领域的供给数量,而是要深入生产领域的生产端;强调供给侧结构性改革,不能忽视需求侧;社会主义生产的根本目的决定了供给侧结构性改革要遵循"质量法则"。     

供给侧改革视角下的高等教育人才创新研究

供给侧结构性改革,是通过调整结构来促进资源的合理配置,改变供给对于需求的结构性失衡矛盾,提高供给结构对市场需求变化的适应性和灵活性,实现供需平衡,进而提升经济发展的质量和效率.在经济发展过程中,人才是其发展的核心力量,高等教育作为科技创新与人力资本素质提升的重要结合点,决定着一个国家在全球价值链分工中的地位.在经济供给侧结构性改革的时代背景和高校转型发展的客观需求下,原有的高等教育人才培养模式存在诸多问题,创新意识和创新能力明显不足,影响着我国高等教育发展和国家创新水平的提高.高等教育要想打破人才培养同质化的藩篱,只有沿着供给侧结构性改革的思路进行变革,进而提升高等教育创新人才的供给效率,培育符合社会需求和发展的创新人才.     

供给侧结构性改革与文化产业的关联性研究

文化产业结构优化是一个循序渐进的进程.文化产业供给侧改革着力提高文化产业供给体系的质量和效率,使文化供给体系更加适应文化发展需求结构的变化,通过供给侧和需求侧的合理互动,增强文化产业发展动力.而供给侧结构性改革作为文化产业发展的新出路,必将重视供给侧与需求侧的相互作用.     

供给侧结构性改革与金融创新选择

本文通过分析我国供给侧结构性改革面临的经济环境,结合供给侧结构性改革的目标,研究了金融创新选择对于供给侧结构性改革的重要影响.笔者利用联立方程模型检验了金融创新、技术创新和经济增长之间的相互关系,研究发现,金融创新对提高企业技术创新及推动经济增长并无显著作用;利用银行博弈均衡模型和数值模拟技术研究发现,只有进行有利于降低信息不对称及降低项目监督成本的金融创新才能够有效引导资金流入实体经济,提高资金供给效率,增强企业技术创新能力,推动经济增长,进而实现供给侧结构性改革目标.     

"十四五"时期供给侧结构性改革推进文化产业高质量发展的创新路径

突破要素制约和市场局限是文化产业发展的现实问题."十四五"时期进行产业结构升级,实现高质量发展是文化产业发展的重要内容.文章对文化产业供给侧和需求侧进行双向驱动研究,并从经济地理学角度对全国分地区文化产业基于供给和需求的数据进行实证分析.研究表明,文化产业供给侧存在结构不均衡、有效供给不足与有效需求不足并存、市场主体空间集聚效应弱等困境,应从政府、市场、社会和行业四个层面优化改革路径.据此文章建议从调整供给结构、创新供给、提高文化供给结构与需求变化相适应的调配性、优化文化发展生态环境等方面入手,助推供给侧结构性改革顺利推进,促进文化产业高质量发展.     

"十四五"时期供给侧结构性改革推进文化产业高质量发展的创新路径

突破要素制约和市场局限是文化产业发展的现实问题."十四五"时期进行产业结构升级,实现高质量发展是文化产业发展的重要内容.文章对文化产业供给侧和需求侧进行双向驱动研究,并从经济地理学角度对全国分地区文化产业基于供给和需求的数据进行实证分析.研究表明,文化产业供给侧存在结构不均衡、有效供给不足与有效需求不足并存、市场主体空间集聚效应弱等困境,应从政府、市场、社会和行业四个层面优化改革路径.据此文章建议从调整供给结构、创新供给、提高文化供给结构与需求变化相适应的调配性、优化文化发展生态环境等方面入手,助推供给侧结构性改革顺利推进,促进文化产业高质量发展.     

禀赋不均、信任水平与财富增长*———来自实验经济学的证据

财富分配的严重不均会引发一系列社会问题,其中容易被忽视却非常重要的一个是社会信任水平的下降,而信任水平的下降不利于社会发展与财富增长。本文运用实验经济学方法,通过在动态的信任博弈实验中引入一个真实努力任务,研究了不同来源和不同程度的禀赋不均对信任水平的影响,进而考察了不同形式的禀赋不均是否通过信任传导机制造成了不同速度的财富增长和新的财富分布。本文的实验结果发现,相比于完全平等的初始禀赋分布,当初始禀赋分布存在较低程度的不平等时,平均信任水平较高且财富增长较快。但初始的禀赋不平等达到一个较高的程度时,平均信任水平和财富增长速度会显著下降。同时,当初始禀赋存在不平等时,基尼系数会自发地降低,当按劳分配的机制造成的初始禀赋差距过大时,就会抑制基尼系数的自发调节。当且仅当初始禀赋差距过高时,禀赋不平等的来源会影响财富差距的调整。     

中国货币市场:结构视角的经济分析*

经济体制改革以来中国货币市场经历了从分散无序到统一规范,再到创新与高速增长继而回归平稳等多个发展阶段,初步构建了一个多元化子市场体系。从不同维度的市场构成变迁看,中国货币市场在产品发行和交易结构失衡且不平稳的背景下,存在交易过度集中化、资金流向结构单一等问题,颇具中国特色。体制转型及特有的信贷管理体制等多重制度约束下的市场功能定位的异化及阶段性转变是导致其结构变迁最为重要的原因。改善子市场体系构成的同时适度打通货币市场与资本市场间的资金连通渠道是促进中国货币市场发展的应有之义。     

英国脱欧事件对主要货币汇率的影响分析*———基于事件分析法

2016年6月24日,英国脱欧公投公布结果,时任英国首相卡梅伦宣告脱欧阵营获胜。消息一出不仅英镑汇率大跌,大多数非美元货币汇率也明显走低。外汇市场是流动性最强、交易量最大的金融市场,对重大事件高度敏感。本文系统梳理英国脱欧始末和开启脱欧进程后的关键事件,运用事件分析法构建分析主要货币汇率变化趋势的模型,以英镑、欧元、日元、人民币汇率数据为研究对象,深入探究政治事件影响汇率的渠道和程度。研究结果表明,英镑与欧元始终受到英国脱欧事件的显著影响,与无协议脱欧风险正相关,即在无协议脱欧风险上升时币值走低,无协议脱欧风险消除时币值走高。相比于欧元,英镑受到的影响更强烈。日元和人民币的汇率仅在英国脱欧公投事件中受到显著影响,较少受后续脱欧进程的影响。本文的研究有利 于动态了解和把握主要货币汇率波动的内在规律和差异性,以便我国更好地应对黑天鹅事件冲击,做好人民币汇率预期管理。     

Topologies of social interactions

Summary. The paper extends the Brock-Durlauf social interactions model to richer social structures modelled with arbitrary interaction topologies and examines in detail the star, the wheel and the path. It explores Nash equilibria when agents act on the basis of expectations over, and, alternatively, actual knowledge their neighbors’ decisions. It links social interactions with econometrics of systems of simultaneous equations. The local dynamics near steady states combine spectral properties of the adjacency matrix and of the nonlinearities of reaction functions. For regular interaction topologies, adjustment exhibit relative persistence. Cyclical interaction is associated with endogenous spatial oscillations and islands of conformity.Received: 12 August 2004, Revised: 20 May 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C35, C45, C00, D80.I am grateful to a referee and the editor for very insightful comments and suggestions, and to the National Science Foundation and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation for generous research support. I thank Frank Alexander, Costas Azariadis, Kenneth J. Arrow, Jean-Pierre Aubin, Rob Axtell, Marcelo Bianconi, Larry Blume, Buz Brock, Marcelo Coca-Perraillon, Steven Durlauf, Glenn D. Ellison, Roland Fryer, Hans Haller, Anna Hardman, Alan Kirman, Alexandros Kyrtsis, Chuck Manski, Costas Meghir, Sharun Mukand, Lynne Pepall, Apostolis Philippopoulos, Danny T. Quah, Bertrand Roehner, Jose A. Scheinkman, Adriaan Soetevent, Dimitri Vayanos, Peyton Young, Gerard Weisbuch, Jeff Zabel and other participants in presentations of earlier versions at the joint Brookings and MacArthur Research Network on Social Interactions and Economic Inequality, the Athens University of Economics and Business, the University of Texas-Austin, ASSET 2001 in Rethymno, the Connectionist Complexity Workshop, Institut Henri Poincaré, Paris, 2003, and the North American meeting of the Econometric Society, San Diego, CA., 2004.     

Energy insecurity in Asia: A multi-dimensional analysis

Energy insecurity has been a critical challenge facing Asia’s economic growth. This study constructs a comprehensive index for energy insecurity as well as examines its trend using a sample of 24 selected Asian countries during the 1990–2014 period. For this purpose, principal component analysis is applied to a series of 12 selected variables. The variables are standardized using different techniques including z-score, min-max and softmax normalization. Three different measures of energy insecurity are created accordingly. The empirical results depict the trend of increasing energy insecurity in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. On the other hand, the trend of fluctuating but recently improving energy security was observed in Hong Kong, Japan, Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea, and United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the trend of fluctuating but recently increasing energy insecurity was found in Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, and Tajikistan. These findings are robust to all three measures of energy insecurity.     

Micro-meso-macro

Building on the ontology of evolutionary realism recently proposed by Dopfer and Potts (forthcoming), we develop an analytical framework for evolutionary economics with a micro-meso-macro architecture. The motive for reconception is to make clear the highly complex and emergent nature of existence and change in economic evolution. For us, the central insight is that an economic system is a population of rules, a structure of rules, and a process of rules. The economic system is a rule-system contained in what we call the meso. From the evolutionary perspective, one cannot directly sum micro into macro. Instead, we conceive of an economic system as a set of meso units, where each meso consists of a rule and its population of actualizations. The proper analytical structure of evolutionary economics is in terms of micro-meso-macro. Micro refers to the individual carriers of rules and the systems they organize, and macro consists of the population structure of systems of meso. Micro structure is between the elements of the meso, and macro structure is between meso elements. The upshot is an ontologically coherent framework for analysis of economic evolution as change in the meso domain - in the form of what we call a meso trajectory - and a way of understanding the micro-processes and macro-consequences involved. We believe that the micro-meso-macro analytical framework can greatly enhance the focus, clarity, and, ultimately, power, of evolutionary economic theory.JEL Classification: B0, C0, D0, E0, O0, P0Kurt Dopfer, John Foster, Jason Potts: We acknowledge to those who have discussed these ideas with us at the Schumpeter Society Conference, Gainesville US 2002; ECG seminars, UQ Economics, Brisbane (also students of ECON7900); Doctoral seminars at University of St. Gallen 2002, 2003; Wartensee Workshops on Evolutionary Economics 2001, 2002, 2003; the MPI in Evolutionary Economics, Jena; SPRU, University of Sussex, Brighton; and the Brisbane Club Workshop, Manchester 2002. Our many discussants have helped us see our way through the muddled (and sometimes seriously muddled) thinking that had happened along the way, and especially when it was our own. So the usual disclaimer shall apply, although perhaps with unusual force. Special thanks also to G. Blind and K. Morrison.Correspondence to: Jason PottsDare we suggest a new category in the JEL classification - (S0) Meso Economics: General.     

Coevolution of economic behaviour and institutions: towards a theory of institutional change

Traditionally, economics has regarded institutions, notably norms and regulations, as fixed or exogenous. Surprisingly few insights on institutional evolution from natural and social sciences have made their way into economics. This article gives an overview of evolutionary theories of institutions in biology, sociology, anthropology and economics. These theories are subsequently compared with non-evolutionary theories of institutions. Next, the insights and approaches are integrated into a framework for analysis of institutions based on the notion of coevolution.JEL Classification: B52, D10, D70, D64, Z13J.C.J.M. van den Bergh     

Economics,Democracy, and the Distribution of Capital Ownership

This article holds that widespread, practical access to capital acquisition is essential for sustainable widespread economic prosperity and democracy. The founders of the U.S.A. agreed that sustainable democracy required widespread ownership of land to provide a viable earning capacity sufficient to support robust participation in democratic government. The importance of widespread land ownership to individual prosperity and sustainable democracy was supported not only by the prevailing philosophical views of property, it was also apparent to the common man and woman. Compared to Europe, America offered widespread access to land ownership, higher wages, better work conditions, cheaper staples and greater individual freedom, equal opportunity, prosperity, and political participation. This conviction that widespread access to ownership is a necessary condition for widespread prosperity and sustainable democracy continued throughout most of the nineteenth century, but today public discourse reveals virtually no trace of this once universally held opinion. This article suggests that the disappearance of this conviction can be traced to an erroneous view shaped by neoclassical economics and Keynesian economics. According to this view, (1) the disappearance of the American frontier and industrialization made the goal of widespread capital ownership either impractical or of little or no economic significance and (2) by way of technological advance, sufficient earning capacity and consumer demand to promote growth and sustain democracy can be achieved, without widespread ownership, primarily through jobs and welfare. Although differing in many respects, both mainstream schools, along with Adam Smith’s classical economics, share one common but unstated economic assumption: the broader distribution of capital acquisition (in itself) has no fundamental relationship to the fuller employment of people and capital, the broader distribution of greater individual earning capacity, and growth. Contemporary thinking, shaped by these economic schools, also tacitly assumes that widespread capital ownership is not essential for the sustainable individual earning capacity needed to support robust democracy. This erroneous “ownership-neutrality assumption” (1) contradicts both the views of America’s founders and the colonial experience, and (2) provides theoretical justification for structuring capital markets and capital acquisition transactions to unfairly and dysfunctionally favor existing owners at the expense of broader ownership distribution, more widely shared prosperity, greater efficiency, ecologically friendly growth, and a vital democracy. America’s conscientious founders would be shocked by the diminished importance of the distribution of ownership in the mainstream analysis of prices, efficiency, production, growth, and democracy. Rather than enhancing democracy, they would view the “ownership-neutrality assumption” of mainstream economics as contributing to its deterioration and corruption. They would openly search for economic analysis built on an alternate assumption more consistent with their understanding of the requisite conditions for sustainable democracy. This article advances an economic analysis that suspends the ownership-neutrality assumption, replaces it with a “broader-ownership-growth assumption,” and suggests a voluntary market strategy for substantially broadening capital ownership, enhancing individual earning capacity, and providing the widespread economic prosperity needed for robust democracy.     

Globalization and the connection of remote communities: A review of household effects and their biodiversity implications

The remote regions of the world provide refuge to a disproportionate amount of the Earth's biodiversity. As globalization continues, isolated human communities in these regions are increasingly connected to global market, migration, and technology networks. We review the diffuse literature on the household effects of changing market access, migration, and technology adoption in remote regions and implications for native biodiversity. Market access affects biodiversity in remote communities through changes in household economics and social networks. Migration, either to or from remote settlements, affects biodiversity through changes in population, remittances, human capital, and social networks. Finally, we consider effects due to production, public infrastructure, and information and communication technologies. There is much ambiguity surrounding these causal pathways, and thus we also examine the roles of various ecological, household, community, and institutional mediating factors in determining the impacts of global connection. Finally, we explore the limitations of our current knowledge and research practices and propose directions for future work to address key uncertainties in theory and evidence as well as weaknesses in methodological approaches. We recommend a broad and interdisciplinary mode of inquiry as the best means toward clarifying globalization's impacts on human settlements and the biodiversity harbored in the Earth's remaining remote regions.     

Different approaches of pattern management and strategic intelligence

The world around us contains endless amounts of information. That information is mostly loose in our minds. Very often, it does not at first contact fit in with our conventional understanding, experience or any context we are used to. Hence, we may say that we are overwhelmed with constantly changing raw data, and strategic actors especially tend to be short of more rapid, up-to-date, valid and in-depth understanding of the transforming business landscape and social environment. Strategic intelligence is an emerging field of business consulting, which aims to undertake the task of revealing large, complex or complicated issues of transformation in a more understandable form. Pattern management, however, can be seen as one field or one approach of strategic intelligence. It is an approach that may, on one hand, be based more on empiric data and formal structures than other forms of strategic intelligence, but, on the other hand, it is a very heuristic approach to integrate quantitative data, reasoning and narratives. The main attempts of this article are, first, to show, what are in general the most commonly used ways of managing, finding, drawing, reasoning or anticipating patterns from our environment, and second, to locate how the concept of pattern can be understood in different ways. From the gathered knowledge, this article presents three main categories of reasoning patterns: empirical calculation (EC) is common especially in enterprise consulting. Theory proving with observations (TPO) is common especially in natural sciences, and real combining (RC) is common especially in qualitative research and in narrative.