山河巨变 千秋功业 安溪绿色茶乡饮誉中外中国驰名

工夫不负人,创业众志成.山河在嬗变,贵在领头雁;数载天地翻,百姓高歌唱,高速跃龙门,公路通海湾;人凤山新街,进大道二环,树明星镇村,建绿色海洋.俯瞰凤城镇,心旷又神怡,攀登山城楼,美景太迷人:明德楼、静心亭,省心阁、清心亭,涵虚阁、富源壶,大龙湖、亭榭处,闻名中外,世人赞美;高楼大厦,鳞次栉比,山城秀色,尽收眼底,挥洒一幅人间画卷,唱响一曲山乡歌谣,这是十载坚守山区成就的缩影!     

中国吸收FDI:现状、特征及对策

20世纪80年代以来,由于FDI在全球范围内迅猛发展,它已经成为经济全球化和世界经济增长的主要力量之一.随着我国对外开放的逐步深化,FDI大量涌入我国,使得我国成为世界上吸收FDI最多的国家之一,对我国的经济产生了广泛而深刻的影响.为此,通过大量的数据来分析研究我国吸收FDI的现状特征,找出其中存在的问题,将有助于我国采取更加合理的对策有效引导FDI,从而推动我国经济快速健康发展.     

反倾销的经济效益及公共利益

反倾销措施是一种旨在保护国内产业的贸易救济手段.从经济学分析的角度看,征收反倾销税能给进口国政府及生产者带来收益,而减少给消费者(包括工业用户)带来的收益.也就是说,反倾销措施可能符合公共利益或减少公共利益.可以其他国家的立法和实践为借鉴,形成比较完善的公共利益审查制度,有利于维护和实现本国整体利益和长远目标.     

出口商品屡遭贸易壁垒的原因及对策:以温州为例的分析

近年来我国出口商品频繁遭遇贸易壁垒的困扰,其深层次原因是非常复杂的,既有来自于国外的,也有我们内部的因素,对此我们应该采取系统的全面应对措施,充分发挥政府、企业和行业协会三方面的作用,防范国际贸易壁垒带来的损失,促进出口行业和国民经济的健康发展.     

谁怕GOOGLE?

互联网世界的超级动力面临着检验的时刻.世界上极少有公司能像GOOGLE一样,在如此短的时间内以如此繁杂的方法迅速崛起,成为世界上最受欢迎的搜索引擎公司.不管从哪个角度来看,这个事实都确定无疑:公司的市场价值和年收入的增长量;庞大数量的用户利用GOOGLE搜索新闻、寻找最近的比萨饼店,观看邻居花园的卫星照片;GOOGLE的广告商名目表不断增加;与此同时,不断增加的还有公司所拥有的律师.     

规费管理的现状及对策——以大同市地税部门为例

所谓政府性规费(基金),是指各级人民政府及其所属部门根据法律、国家行政法规和中共中央、国务院有关文件规定,为支持某项事业发展,按照国家规定程序批准,向公民、法人和其他组织征收的具有专项用途的资金,包括各种基金、资金、附加的专项收费.     

让不堪重负的江河湖泊休养生息

让江河湖泊休养生息,就是要实行最为严格的污染物排放总量控制制度,以水环境容量确定发展方式和发展规模;就是要尊重自然规律,充分发挥水生态系统自我修复能力,逐步改变环境恶化状况;就是要综合运用工程的、技术的、生态的方法,加大治理水环境的力度,促进水生态系统尽快步入良性循环的轨道;就是要充分运用法律、经济和必要的行政手段,既要形成严格排放、合理开发的强大压力,又要形成主动治理水环境的积极动力,用高效的办法解决长期积累的环境问题。     

以人为本创造和谐矿山——伯方煤矿在创新中崛起

随着我国经济的快速发展和对能源的大量需求,使得自然环境遭受着矿山开采的严重破坏.由于许多矿山设施的滞后,以及矿工基本素质的薄弱和经济利益的巨大诱惑,矿工的生命及其尊严,人类的环境及其保护,面临着巨大的挑战,成为一个敏感的社会话题,以及政府、企业、社会共同关注的焦点.     

保护城市现代化进程中的传统民居

各个历史时期的传统民居是城市的文化遗产,体现大城市多层次、多元化的文化形态和深厚的历史文化内涵,不同城市的民居有不同的造型、不同的装饰、不同的风格,反映出不同的历史文化积淀.如汉唐古都的残台断墙,上海、天津的西洋古典式建筑,北京大栅栏半土半洋的商业店面,现代化大城市高楼下的低矮平房等等,它们都是作为一种"符号"而代表着某种特有的文化.     

推进发展 继往开来——广东省市场经济促进会第三届理事会工作报告

各位领导、各位会员:现在,我受第三届理事会委托,向大会做工作报告。一、过去5年理事会完成的主要工作1、2002年3月经省新闻出版局批准(2001粤印准字第0247号),编印发行《广东省市场经济促进会会刊·名优产品特刊》。该特刊根据省委、省政府实施广东名牌战略的大政方针,推荐选编了一批广东名优产品。同时,还选编刊登了国家和省的部分最新经济政策法规,对我会理事单位工作和宣传促进社会主义市场经济发展发挥了一定的作用。     

Information Linkages between Chinese and World Copper Futures Markets

In this paper, we examine the price discovery process and volatility spillover effects in informationally linked futures markets. Using synchronous trading information from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and the London Metal Exchange (LME) for copper futures from 2000 to 2012, we show that the cointegration relationships of these futures markets changed during 2006–2008. The results indicate that there is a bidirectional relationship in terms of price and volatility spillovers between the LME and NYMEX and the SHFE, with a stronger effect from the LME and NYMEX to the SHFE (versus the effect from the SHFE to the LME and NYMEX) prior to 2006. Our results also highlight the increasingly prominent role of the SHFE in the price formation process and cross-volatility spillover effects since 2008. Finally, we show that volatility spillover has important implications for constructing optimized portfolios for copper investors.     

国内、国际期货市场期货价格之间的关联研究

该文利用协整检验和Granger因果检验等技术,首次对国内和国际期货市场的铜、铝、大豆和小麦的期货价格之间的动态关系进行了实证研究.结果显示:上海期货交易所与伦敦金属交易所铜、铝的期货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,大连商品交易所与芝加哥期货交易所大豆的期货价格之间存在协整关系;相对而言,国外市场的影响力较大;郑州商品交易所与芝加哥期货交易所小麦期货价格之间不存在协整关系.     

沪铜期货市场价格发现的动态贡献——基于状态空间模型的实证研究

商品期货价格与现货价格的相互关系一直是学术界研究的热点,但大都基于静态的模型。本文从期货定价的持有成本理论出发,通过误差修正方程构建状态空间模型,利用卡尔曼滤波算法从动态的角度研究了2004-2012年期间我国沪铜期货市场价格发现的贡献。实证结果显示:2004-2012年,我国沪铜期货市场价格发现的贡献随着时间的变化而变化。2004-2008年逐步增强;2008年金融危机后,逐步下滑,到2010年,落后于现货市场;之后又有回升趋势。总体来看,沪铜期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位,但具有明显的波动性。     

Volatility–volume co-movements: evidence from China metal markets

This article investigates the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading activity for three heavily traded metal products on the Shanghai Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Using models based on vector autoregression and generalized method of moments, we show, in particular, that futures trading activity has a strong impact on both spot and futures price volatility in copper and aluminium markets. Futures trading activity leads spot market volatility in copper and aluminium markets which suggests that futures markets have a destabilizing effect. In order to disentangle the effect of different traders’ types on asset price movements, we decompose futures trading into speculators’ and hedgers’ trading and investigate their contributions to volatility. As a robustness check, we investigate the impact of endogenous structural breaks on the interactional relationship between price volatility and futures trading.     

期货价格收益率与波动性的实证研究——以中国上海与英国伦敦为例

采用协整模型、Granger因果关系检验、ECM模型及几种GARCH模型对中国上海与英国伦敦金属期货价格收益率和波动性做了研究.发现两市期货价格之间存在Granger因果关系、协整关系、同向变动关系和长期的共同趋势.采用ECM模型研究了两市的短期波动差异.GARCH类模型研究发现,两市波动性存在非对称性、溢出效应、杠杆效应.上海对伦敦市场的单向溢出效应显著存在.两市存在的利空消息均大于利多消息的作用,伦敦期货市场风险大于上海期货市场风险.     

Simultaneity,Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures

Previous research on price determination for non‐ferrous metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) suffers from three limitations: first it has employed single equation methods only, which cannot explain the simultaneous determination of spot and futures prices; second, by focusing on current and lagged prices, previous research does not analyse the effect on price determination of critical variables such as expectations, consumption and inventories; third, the outcome of prior research regarding market efficiency is ambiguous. This paper, which addresses these issues, develops a simultaneous model of the copper market at the LME, with representation of the activities of hedgers, speculators and consumers. This model produces post‐sample forecasts of the spot price which outperform conventional benchmarks, thus providing evidence against the efficient market hypothesis. Model‐derived forecasts are employed as the foundation of a trading program which produces risk‐adjusted profits (net of commission costs) for holding periods of one week and one month, thus fulfilling the ‘sufficient condition’ for market inefficiency. This study, therefore, provides new insights into price determination on the LME copper market, and resolves the ambiguity of previous research regarding the efficiency of that market. This is the first application of the model forecasting approach to the question of performance of the market for copper.     

Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract

This study applies linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic relation between London Metal Exchange (LME) cash prices and three possible predictors. The analysis uses matched quarterly inventory, UK Treasury bill interest rates, futures prices and cash prices for the commodity lead traded on the LME. The effects of cointegration on both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests is also examined. When cointegration is not modelled, evidence is found of both linear and nonlinear causality between cash prices and analysed predictor variables. However, after controlling for cointegration, evidence of significant nonlinear causality is no longer found. These results contribute to the empirical literature on commodity price forecasting by highlighting the relationship between cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality. The importance of interest rate and inventory as well as futures price in forecasting cash prices is also illustrated. Failure to detect significant nonlinearity after controlling for cointegration may also go some way to explaining the reason for the disappointing forecasting performances of many nonlinear models in the general finance literature. It may be that the variables are correct, but the functional form is overly complex and a standard VAR or VECM may often apply.     

Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios

The effectiveness of hedging marine bunker price fluctuations in Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston is examined using different crude oil and petroleum future contracts traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) in London. Using both constant and dynamic hedge ratios, it is found that in and out-of-sample hedging effectiveness is different across regional bunker markets. The most effective futures instruments for out of sample hedging of spot bunker prices in Rotterdam and Singapore are the IPE crude oil futures, while for Houston it is the gas oil futures. Differences in hedging effectiveness across regional markets are attributed to the varying regional supply and demand factors in each market. In comparison to other markets, the cross-market hedging effectiveness investigated in the bunker market is low.     

股指期货限制交易对定价效率影响研究*——基于跨市场信息传递视角的实证

从跨国金融市场信息传递的视角对中国2015年股灾中股指期货限制交易政策实施前后的中美市场实证分析表明：股指期货的限制交易政策极大地增强了美国市场对中国市场的影响，尤其是在下跌行情中的影响更大。分位数回归显示美国市场的交易活动对中国市场开盘价的影响呈“V”型特征，美国市场的微小波动都会引起中国市场的巨大波动，限制交易措施实施后，在下跌行情中来自美国市场的负冲击对中国市场的影响变得更大。这一实证研究的政策含义在于：为了增强股指期货市场的定价效率，金融监管层在市场稳定后应放开股指期货的限制交易，并通过降低准入门槛和合约大小等措施提高市场的开放程度。此外，监管层和国内投资者不能忽视美国股指期货对国内市场的影响。     

纽约黄金期货价格波动对我国期货市场收益率的影响研究

随着我国期货市场的迅速发展,商品期货逐步显示出金融属性。本文运用自回归分布滞后模型结合GARCH族模型对纽约黄金期货价格波动与我国上海期货交易所沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、天然橡胶、燃料油期货价格波动之间的动态关系展开研究,以考察宏观经济运行对我国期货市场的影响。