国际经济贸易中对外汇风险的防范研究

随着全球经济一体化进程不断深化,各个国家经济取得了进一步发展,国家经济贸易竞争日益激烈,汇率也随之发生较大变化。中国一些企业逐步参与国际市场竞争,为自己争取了更多发展机会,然而,在其迅速发展背后,不难发现,中国在国际经济贸易发展中面临的外汇风险越来越大。因此,加强对外汇风险防范的研究具有现实意义。对国际经济贸易环境下外汇风险产生的原因及其对企业的影响进行分析和研究,并从短期与长期两方面提出防范企业外汇风险的主要措施,从而为中国对外贸易发展提供支持。     

金融市场开放能降低企业营运风险吗?

作为优化我国金融供给结构、提升资源配置效率和对外开放的关键环节,金融市场开放为打通国内国际双循环、充分发挥资源配置的决定性作用提供了新契机。本文基于局部均衡模型诠释了金融市场开放影响企业营运风险的内在机理,并运用2007—2020年沪深A股非金融上市企业数据,实证检验了金融市场开放对企业营运风险影响的潜在作用机制及效果。研究发现,金融市场开放会显著降低企业营运风险,该效应在资本密集型、制度质量较高、行业竞争程度较高以及非成长期企业样本中尤为明显;金融市场开放会通过缓解融资约束、提高资本配置效率及提高资本配置质量降低企业营运风险。本文不仅为有序推进金融市场开放以促进实体经济高质量发展提供理论与经验证据,而且对于在新发展格局下加快构建中国式现代金融体系具有重要的参考意义。     

基于“劳-资”初次分配效应的美国金融危机研究

超金融化扩展了资本主义经济系统的维度,使实体经济系统更不稳定,美国历史上出现的多次金融危机都是超金融化的结果。从分形动力学假设视角上看,劳动分配与货币资本分配的关系是非线性的,资本主义经济系统所呈现的短期不规则涨落并非外部随机冲击的结果,而是系统内部的机制所引起的。在开放经济中,美国的金融危机具有国际传染性,受美国持续量化宽松的货币政策影响,中国经济亦处在复杂化的国际经济环境中,这有可能造成中国金融资产过度分配的系统性风险。为保证国内经济稳定,我们必须采取相应的防范措施。     

知识产权保护提升了中国出口技术复杂度吗?

本文通过测算2001-2012年中国国民经济30个工业制造行业的出口技术复杂度指数和构建行业知识产权保护强度等指标,运用系统GMM估计方法从总体行业、分类型行业和细分行业等角度,研究了行业知识产权保护强度对行业出口技术复杂度提升的影响。研究结果表明知识产权保护的增强对中国行业出口技术复杂度的提升具有明显促进作用,进一步分析发现知识产权保护的行业影响效应呈现明显的差异性,其对技术密集型行业出口技术复杂度的提升作用大于对劳动和资本密集型行业的影响。     

浅谈企业财务风险的成因、防范和控制

企业财务风险是指由于财务行为的决策与执行、企业外部环境变化等原因,使财务活动不能满足企业营运需要,使企业履行经营义务受阻.因企业的风险分为系统风险(外部风险)和非系统风险(内部风险),故财务风险的研究更侧重于企业的内部风险.不同行业的财务风险,具有该行业的特殊性,但从社会环境和经济市场的宏观来看,又具有普遍性.本文从普遍性方面进行论述.     

汇率与股市相关行业的风险溢出效应——基于静态与动态CoVaR的分析

基于2005~2016年间2579个日度交易数据,分别运用静态和动态CoVaR方法测度了人民币对美元汇率、股市中的地产、贸易以及券商行业价格指数相互之间的风险溢出效应。实证结果发现,在任何风险水平下,汇率对股市相关行业的边际风险溢出效应都显著为正,在汇率发生较大波动时,要尤其注意股市相关行业的风险预警;风险水平加剧时,变量之间的风险总溢出呈现增强趋势,但边际外溢效应具有差异性,应着重防控汇率对地产、券商行业的边际风险溢出效应;汇率对股市相关行业的风险溢出效应的动态变化趋势与汇率制度改革进程有明显关联性,而股市相关行业对汇率的风险溢出效应的动态变化趋势则主要依赖于股市的繁荣程度。本文的研究结论有助于理解汇率市场与股票市场中相关行业的风险联动性机理,为防范金融市场系统性风险提供参考。     

上市公司资本结构动态分析——从国际比较的视角

我国上市公司还处在发展之中,其资本结构还存在不够合理之处,这是由内部和外部经济环境因素共同影响所致。对资本结构的优化和战略管理是对公司实行战略管理的必然要求。通过对中国上市公司资本结构变动的研究与国际比较,发现我国上市公司具有强烈的股权融资偏好。借鉴国外的先进经验,结合中国资本市场结构的自身的特点,才能发展具有中国特色的资本市场。     

中美企业组织结构特性的比较分析

随着经济全球化的加快,中国加入WTO,逐渐与世界经济接轨.在竞争激烈的国际社会里,综合实力需要有发达的经济作为基础,经济的核心是企业.先进企业的成功经验表明,企业的成功与其组织结构的适应性有十分密切的关系.本文以美国为参照对象,从企业组织结构的3个特性出发对中美两国的企业组织结构进行比较分析,从中归纳总结出中国和美国企业组织结构特性的相似性和差异性.     

经济结构约束下中小保险公司发展对经济增长的影响

大量研究发现保险业活动可以影响经济增长,但对于保险业的结构特征和区域差异对经济增长是否有作用却鲜有涉及。本文运用中国31个省份（直辖市）在1999-2008年间的面板数据,利用固定效应模型和系统广义矩方法进行了计量分析。我们发现保险业活动、结构以及保险业结构与经济结构的匹配对经济发展具有显著的影响：中小保险公司市场份额的提高有利于经济增长;保险业结构与经济结构匹配时会促进经济增长,反之则会抑制经济增长。本文还构建了相对保险深度指标对全国样本进行分类,发现不同区域保险业结构与经济结构的协同效应对经济增长的影响规律存在一定的差异。     

国际承包工程风险管理之浅见

我国作为一个发展中国家，积极参与国际经济技术合作，对增强我国企业在国际市场上的竞争能力和经济效益的提高具有十分重要的意义，作为国际工程承包企业除了加强企业内部自身管理之外，由于其行业的特殊性，正确认识风险的来源和性质，对于企业抵御风险能力是非常必要的，本文从风险国际承包工程风险管理之角度就国际工程承包中风险的来源，风险与收益之间的关系以及防范和控制风险的方法等问题简要阐述了笔者的一点粗浅看法。     

基于技术视角的产业关联发展研究

随着技术的不断产生与发展,各产业间关联关系不断变化,并呈现一定的阶段性特征。针对技术产生与发展的创新外部效应,从产业关联产生的本质原因、过程和结果对产业关联发展进行解析。分析了技术在创新系统中对产业关联体系发展的引领作用,揭示了产业关联发展过程及其规律,提出了五阶段产业关联发展模型及演进路径。对3D打印技术相关产业进行实证研究发现,在技术创新过程中,同一时间不同产业间关联所处发展阶段与程度有所差别,各产业在关联关系中所处地位与作用有所不同,应针对不同产业关联阶段制定产业创新策略,推动产业关联关系合理进化。     

The Incidence and Consequence of Worker Displacement in Australia

This paper analyses displacement risk and its consequences for re-employment in Australia using data from the Survey of Employment and Unemployment Patterns (SEUP). We confirm overseas evidence that older workers and those from lower skill occupations are, in general, at a greater risk of displacement. By contrast, unlike US studies, no systematic link between tenure in job and displacement risk was found. Consistent with previous Australian research ( Borland and McDonald, 2001 ) we find that males face a higher incidence of displacement than females. Decomposition of the gender difference revealed that industry effects are an important source of disparity in displacement rates. Analysis of re-employment hazards indicated that workers displaced from manufacturing faced increased periods of non-employment. Hence, it appears that there is a role for provisions to help workers in industries where the effects of structural reform have been concentrated ( Kletzer, 1998 ).     

河南省第三产业结构发展趋势预测与灰关联分析

笔者通过运用等维灰数递补模型对河南省第三产业产值、城镇居民人均可支配收入、交通运输仓储及邮电通信业、批发和零售贸易餐饮业、金融保险业、房地产业产值进行预测，认为河南第三产业结构自“十五”后趋于合理，房地产业、公交邮电通讯业、批零商业等日趋重要，相应的对策是应在保持这些产业优势的基础上，大力发展一些新行业，促进河南第三产业健康发展和人民生活水平持续提高。     

The industrial relationships in time-varying beta coefficients between Korea and United States

This article examines financial linkage of systematic risks for 20 industry portfolio returns between Korean and US stock markets. Time-varying beta coefficients of Capital Asset Pricing Model are estimated and Granger-causality tests are carried out for identifying the significance of the industrial relations between the two stock markets. The empirical findings show that the strength and the causality of international financial linkage vary depending on the types of industry and the shocks in the systematic risk. Some Korean industries, including financing industries, iron and metal industries, service, and textile and wearing industries are relatively vulnerable to systematic risk associate with US industries.     

Exchange‐Rate Risk and Japanese–Thai Industry Trade

Over the past decade, many papers have studied the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on international trade, particularly at the bilateral level for large numbers of individual industries. This is necessary because the underlying theory is ambiguous and because earlier papers failed to uncover significant results at a higher degree of aggregation. This paper examines the case of Japan and Thailand over the period from 1970 to 2010. We find that slightly more than half of 117 export industries and 54 import industries are affected by volatility in the short run. In the long run, 6 export and 2 import industries are affected positively, and 22 export and 9 import industries are affected negatively. Small Japanese export industries are more likely to be negatively affected, while imports show no differences regarding industry size. In a sectoral analysis, we find some evidence that Japanese exports of manufactures and certain machinery and transport equipment might be relatively more affected by the exchange‐rate risk. Raw material imports are least affected. These findings therefore suggest which industries might benefit most by a policy promoting a stable yen.     

FINANCIAL DEREGULATION AND RELATIVE RISK OF AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY*

In the early 1980s the Australian economy underwent a period of rapid financial deregulation and liberalisation, the key symbol of this process being the floating of the exchange rate in December 1983. It has been suggested that one effect of such regulatory change is to alter the risk characteristics of economic units most directly impacted by the changes. In this vein, Brooks and Faff (1995) examined banking industry risk and found that deregulation coincided with a stabilising of the beta risk of banks. However, financial deregulation was expected to have widespread effects across the economy. Accordingly, in this paper we further test for possible effects by examining the level and stability of the beta risk of individual stocks and portfolios in other industries in both prederegulation and post-deregulation periods. From a comparison of the two periods we find that the effects on beta levels vary across industries. However in general post-deregulation betas have become stable across a large range of key industry classifications. This provides interesting insights into the effects of financial deregulation on relative risk and why different industries may have different experiences.     

Analysis of interregional industry linkage and economic distance in China: evidence from the mining industry

The mining industry is an important sector of the national economy, which provides essential support for energy and other resources for economic development. Industrial linkage and economic distance are two different concepts in measuring the correlationship of different industries, in this article, we apply the model that combines both of them to analyse the industries significantly influence the mining industry. We find that electricity and heating industry, and the mining industry itself from forward linkages have greatly influenced the mining industry, and the industries from backward linkages affect mining industry are changing with industrial economic transformation. We also find resources can flow across several regions only after 2007, which means the role of geographical factors limiting long-range transportation of resources is weakening after 2007. And we explain how resources flow among various regions during 1997 ~ 2007. Based on the findings above, policy implications from the empirical results obtained are discussed.     

基于AHP法的盐城市主导产业选择与空间布局

从分析盐城市产业发展的现状特点出发,采用AHP决策分析法,通过建模、计算和检验,得出六大重点产业的重要性排序(其中,汽车工业和化工产业的权重最高),以及此六大重点产业布局在盐城下辖各县(市、区)的权重得分。相关计算结果、为盐城市主导产业选择和重点产业空间布局问题提供科学依据,并对AHP法在产业空间布局中的应用做出适当的探讨。     

Semi‐Parametric Examination of Industry Risk: The Australian Evidence

This paper examines the time variation form of the systematic risk measurement, beta, in Australian industry sectors. By using a semi‐parametric approach, the systematic risk measurement, beta, is defined as a combination of one stable parametric component and one varying non‐parametric component. Two categories of industries were identified. The Energy, Material, Mining, Industrial and Property Trust industries had a generally increasing beta for most of the sample period, while the Consumer Discretionary, Financials Excluding Property Trust, IT and Telecommunications had a decreasing beta for the same period. The betas of the Health and Utility industries are more stable than others. The variation of industry risk is linked with the market conditions, as well as the change of interest rates.     

The typology of technology clusters and its evolution — Evidence from the hi-tech industries

Clustering is one of the key drivers for regional economic growth. Development of clusters is a dynamic process shaped by a variety of internal and external factors such as availability of skilled labor, presence of functioning networks and partnerships, technological changes, and market competition, etc. As a result, the patterns of cluster growth may differ from one another. Although each cluster is unique in some way, previous research has attempted to identify few simplified models of evolution of clusters. In this study, we briefly reviewed the literature on a variety of models of clusters. Based on these models, we investigated 15 hi-performing metropolitan-based clusters in the United States, covering communications equipment manufacturing, information technology, and biopharmaceutical industries, in order to find out the similarities and differences between real-world clusters. Specifically, by examining the composition of these high-tech clusters, we attempted to find out the following: 1) What are the typologies of these technology clusters? 2) Whether different industries tend to support different cluster typologies? and 3) How do clusters change their typologies over time? Our analysis results suggest that the real-world clusters rarely feature any single type of typology; a mixed type of typology is much more prevalent in reality.We also found that different industries tend to support different types of cluster typologies. In other words, an individual cluster's typology is to some extent shaped by the industry group it belongs to. In addition, we note that, as a cluster goes through different stages of its lifecycle, its typology may change significantly.