环境约束条件下的中国粮食全要素生产率增长与分解——基于省域面板数据与序列Malmquist-Luenberger指数的观察

本文利用1978-2010年国内省域面板数据,在使用单元调查评估法计算各省份DMU粮食生产污染排放量的基础上,利用方向性距离函数和序列DEA技术,测度了中国粮食生产是否考虑环境因素两种情形下的全要素生产率指数,并进一步分解为技术效率变化和技术进步。研究结果表明,是否考虑环境污染成本对于测算结果有较大影响,这对于政策导向意义重大;两种情形下全要素生产率增长贡献有限,主要靠技术进步单独贡献,并同时存在技术进步与效率损失并存的现象,粮食增长成本与代价相对高昂;从经济增长、资源与环境的协调程度来看,国内东中西部地区差异明显,东部地区表现最优的同时,西部地区的粮食生产扮演了"双重恶化"与失衡的角色。     

粮食综合生产能力建设实现路径分析

本文运用灰色关联分析法对各因素对湖南省粮食生产的关联度进行分析,并建立计量模型分析各要素对湖南省粮食生产的贡献,得出湖南省粮食生产已经出现规模报酬递增趋势,但自然灾害对粮食生产有重大的减产效应,并且种植制度改进等因素对增产有很大贡献的结论。     

中国粮食生产与要素投入实证研究

通过分析中国粮食生产的现状,选择与粮食生产密切相关的农业化肥施用量、粮食播种面积、成灾面积、农业机械总动力、农业劳动力、有效灌溉面积和农业科技三项费用七个投入要素,建立OLS估计模型,进行回归分析,同时对要素进行相关分析,把握各种投入要素动态变化规律,旨在找出目前影响中国粮食生产的最显著的投入要素.     

我国工业行业技术分解测度与技术溢出渠道分析

首先构建了行业内研发、行业间研发和进出口贸易所带来的技术溢出对技术进步、技术效率及全要素生产率影响的计量模型,然后使用数据包络分析法(DEA)计算了我国工业行业效率指数、技术进步指数和表示全要素生产率的Malquist指数,最后使用我国工业行业数据对计量模型进行了估计。结果表明,国内本行业研发和国内其他行业研发提升本行业技术进步指数的同时降低了行业效率指数,行业内研发对全要素生产率的贡献为正,而行业间研发对全要素生产率的贡献不显著,进口和出口对生产效率的提高无显著作用,对技术进步产生了正向的溢出,进口对全要素生产率的贡献为正,而出口对全要素生产率的贡献不显著。     

我国粮食直补结构的优化——基于单产提高的视角

粮食安全始终是关系我国经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的战略问题,提高单产水平是化解这一难题的有效途径。本文以粮食主产区河南省1990年至2009年主要粮食作物小麦的投入产出表为依据,利用主成分分析法分析了小麦各生产要素的投入产出弹性,研究发现各生产要素对小麦单产的贡献是不同的。因此,应通过优化粮食直补结构,加大主导要素的支持力度,引导农户增加对粮食单产贡献较大的生产要素投入,充分挖掘粮食单产水平提高的潜力,促进粮食生产出现跨越式发展。其余各省应按同样的方法优化粮食直补结构。     

我国小麦全要素生产率分析——基于Malmquist指数

效率是小麦竞争优势的集中体现,也是我国小麦生产发展水平的重要标志。同时,提高小麦生产效率也是保障粮食供给、提高农民收入、促进农村发展的有效途径。本文通过Malmquist指数对我国小麦生产效率进行分解研究,重点分析了2006年全面免除农业税以来小麦全要素生产率的变化趋势。结果表明,效率水平总体呈增长趋势,这与社会发展是相一致的。全要素生产率变动主要有技术进步推动,并与其保持一致,这说明农业技术发展对小麦生产效率有重要影响力,我国要提高小麦生产效率,政府财政应该加大农业技术研究投入,并大力推动农业技术物质化和推广实施。     

农户粮食生产投资调整意愿与行为差异研究——基于京津冀609户粮农的调查

基于京津冀609户粮农的调研数据,构建多分类Logit模型,分析资本投入、劳动投入与意愿、农户经营特征对农户粮食生产投资调整行为的影响,发现灌溉成本、机械成本、务农人数、农地流转意愿、农户经营规模和种粮收入比例等因素对农户种粮投资调整意愿影响显著。然而现实中,大部分有粮食生产投资调整意愿的农户,在短期内只有少数实际进行了调整。从微观适应性预期和宏观劳动投入与资本投入互竞双视角对农户种粮投资调整意愿与行为差异原因进行分析,发现微观上农户调整粮食种植结构和种植面积都需要一定时间,不是马上就可以实施的;宏观上物质资本的短期产出弹性小于长期产出弹性,使大部分有调整投资意愿的农户实际上短期内没有落实调整行为。因此,应完善粮食生产可变要素的成本控制机制,加强基础设施建设和农业大数据技术研究,合理引导农户粮食生产投资调整预期和行为。     

基于DEA的河南省粮食生产要素投入效率及过度使用估价分析

文章运用DEA分析法,借助Deap2.1软件,对2000-2015年河南省粮食生产主要投入要素效率进行分析。估计结果表明:在研究期内,河南省粮食生产主要投入要素效率,经历了由规模效益递增到规模效益递减的转变过程;2000年、2002年、2006年均为DEA规模有效,但是,2009-2013年为DEA规模无效,要素投入冗余很大,有明显的优化空间。     

农业科技创新投入要素贡献的动态分析——基于状态空间模型的实证

笔者在知识生产函数理论基础上,依据我国1990年～2009年农业科技创新时序数据,检验变量平稳性及协整关系,并以此为基础构建变系数状态空间模型,刻画农业科技创新投入要素贡献的动态效应。结果表明,1990年～2009年研发支出和研发人员的产出弹性呈现出完全相反的趋势:研发支出贡献为正值,并自1994年以后一直稳步上升;而研发人员贡献为负值,从1992年开始一直下降,直到1999年才开始逐步收敛于一定值且持续至今。研发支出和研发人员要素稀缺性、质量差异以及农业科技发展的特殊性导致农业科技创新投入要素的产出贡献呈现不同的趋势与阶段特征。     

云南省粮食生产波动及其影响因素实证分析

本文利用波动系数分析了云南粮食生产的产量波动情况,分析结果显示,云南省粮食生产波动的特征属于古典型波动,即波动系数小于零,而且波动频繁、波动幅度较大.同时对波动因素进行了分析,结果显示云南粮食总产量循环波动主要是由单产波动引起的,但是单产对总产的影响越来越小,而粮食播种面积对总产的影响越来越大,这说明确保粮食播种面积对稳定粮食产量意义重大.     

Production chains

More advanced technologies demand higher degrees of specialization — and longer chains of production connecting raw inputs to final outputs. Longer production chains are subject to a “weakest link” effect: they are more fragile and more prone to failure. Optimal chain length is determined by the trade-off between the gains to specialization and the higher failure rate associated with longer chain length. There is a kind of reverse “Keynesian multiplier” that magnifies the effect of real shocks. Consequently, more advanced economies may have lower utilization of resources and be more prone to crisis.     

艺术生产模型:评述与改进

建立了一个新的艺术生产模型.创新之处在于:(1)考虑的是艺术生命,而非艺术家的一生;(2)认为艺术家的层次会随时间变化而变化,从而艺术生产函教也发生变化;(3)把艺术生产划分为四个阶段,即培养期、业余艺术家时期、专业艺术家时期和超级明星时期;(4)吸收了闲暇经济理论,把闲暇时间与劳动时间相对应.     

Service Production Functions

The paper derives production functions designed to model the evolution of service industries. The derivation is based on specifying the output elasticities of the factors according to differential equations and asymptotic technological boundary conditions in factor space. The derived functional forms incorporate labor, capital, energy, and technology parameters, whose time changes model innovation and structural change. The model is applied to the evolution of the German market-determined services 1960–1989.     

代工生产与跨国公司生产方式变化趋势

本文在代工生产形成的产业条件以及生产成本和规模经济作用的基础上，从产业内生因素角度建立一个跨国公司生产方式演变模型。模型揭示跨国公司生产方式变化具有三个阶段性及代工生产形成的必然性，本文还阐释了三个阶段的发生时间和阶段特征。     

Joint Production,Externalities, and the Regulation of Production Networks

Real production systems are often vertically integrated in thesense that one production process uses the unwanted joint product of another production process as input.This interrelationship links in a non-obvious way the different negative externalities stemming from theproduction processes. An empirical example is the sulphuric acid industry. Our model of a vertically integratedproduction system shows how internalising one currently existing externality may create another externalitywhich has thus far not been existent. We also discuss how environmental policy could deal with this problemwhen regulating integrated production systems.     

我国粮食生产补偿政策对粮食生产的影响

运用DEA方法测算2004—2011年我国粮食生产补偿政策的效率。结果显示:我国粮食生产补偿政策的实施对粮食生产效率提高的影响并不显著,且呈反复波动趋势。根据我国分地区逐步推进粮食生产补偿政策实施的特征,运用双差分模型对我国粮食生产补偿政策的实施效果进行评价,分析了其对粮食产量增长的政策影响。结果显示,我国粮食补贴政策对粮食产量的提高有正面效应,但其长期效应有待研究。     

The Production Boundary Reconsidered

Hill and Hawrylyshyn rediscovered a classical contribution made by Margaret Reid as early as 1934, known now as the “third party criterion.” The general production boundary in SNA 1993 is defined by using this criterion. They considered that the property of “delegability” was the key to the concept of economic production. That is, an activity is called production in an economic sense if it can be delegated to another economic unit. The author calls due attention to the fact that the SNA includes another criterion, which he tentatively calls “World 1 criterion” meaning that an activity is called economic production only when it is a physical process, where the term World 1 is due to Karl Popper. It is claimed that this criterion can generate a more appropriate general production boundary for the SNA if it is used with “role‐exchangeability” criterion, another new criterion.     

Cleaner Production and OrganizationalLearning

The paper is concerned with organizational learning around cleaner production as a response to environmental pressures, and presents an analysis of the character, strengths and limitations of organizational learning as stimulated by four key drivers: regulation, green market pressures, quality and technical efficiency considerations, and the culture and values of those within organizations. The analysis is supported by a number of case study examples in manufacturing industry based on field work conducted between 1993-1996. The theoretical approach draws particularly on the innovation and inward technology transfer literature, which uses the concepts of 'receptivity' and 'absorptive capacity' to explain the ability of organizations to assimilate new knowledge, but is also sensitized to the contested and sometimes conflictual nature of change processes. Particular emphasis is given to (a) the importance of good linkages with external sources of knowledge, including regulators, and (b) the extent to which the organizational culture encourages a pluralistic and participative approach. The case studies suggest that weaknesses with respect to the enforcement of the current regulatory framework and the lack of sufficient financial incentives (i.e. ecological tax reform) are liable to continue to give rise to selective approaches which do not fully address the cleaner production agenda. In conclusion, the analysis of the limitations of firm-based organizational learning, particularly with respect to the need to change consumption patterns, indicates the continuing need for a wider process of social learning.     

The HQ Production Function

A sixth-degree production function of Henderson and Quands (1958), that exhibits increasing and then decreasing returns to scale, is generalized to allow for non-homotheticity as well as homotheticity. Although the long-run function lacks the desirable short-run attribute of the original function, it has the advantage that the cross-marginal product is conventionally positive The simplicity and versatility of die HQ production function make it useful for computer simulations of long-run competitive market equilibrium with a determinate number of firms.