Average Derivative Estimation of Hedonic Price Models

Conventional parametric techniques for estimatinghedonic price models require a correct functionalform. In this paper, we side-step this parametricshortcoming by estimating a hedonic price model usingaverage derivative estimation (ADE). Thissemiparametric approach produces robust estimates ofthe marginal effects without assuming a specificfunctional form a priori. In our application ofthe model to a unique data set on Korean home prices,ADE produced estimates consistent with priorexpectations, providing initial evidence that themodel may represent a viable alternative when usingthe hedonic approach.     

我国商品房销售价格的影响因素——基于空间面板计量模型的实证分析

运用空间面板计量模型,利用2000—2009年中国31个省域的面板数据,实证分析了我国商品房销售价格与其影响因素的关系。实证结果显示:空间面板计量模型的拟合效果更好、解释力更强;我国的商品房销售价格存在正向的空间相关性,相邻地区商品房销售价格的提高能够推动本地区商品房销售价格的提高;城镇居民收入水平、城镇化水平、第三产业发展水平和对外开放程度对商品房销售价格有正向推动作用,政府对经济的干预程度和工业化水平的提升有助于降低商品房销售价格。     

Alternative Approaches to Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo

The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the balance sheets and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the balance sheet accounts for the calculation of the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry. The paper uses a variant of the builder's model that has been used to construct Residential Property Price Indexes. Geometric depreciation rates are estimated for commercial offices in Tokyo using assessment data for REIT. The problems associated with the decomposition of property value into land and structure components are addressed. The problems associated with depreciating capital expenditures on buildings and with measuring the loss of asset value due to early retirement of the structure are also addressed.     

基于地理加权回归的上海市房价空间分异及其影响因子研究

利用上海市外环以内2010年12月1014个小区的平均房价数据,通过构建地理加权回归模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法(OLS)进行比较,揭示上海小区房价的空间分异和不同影响因子的影响。研究发现,每增加或减少一个单位各影响因子对房价的影响大小依次为:建成时间,到CBD距离,绿化率,到公园距离,距地铁站距离,距超市距离和距学校距离。同时,地理加权回归分解成局部参数估计优于OLS提供的全局参数估计,它可以深刻的揭示出房价和空间影响因子之间复杂的关系,而且可视化的工具可以用地图的形式更详细的呈现出城市房价的整体景观,这些都是传统OLS无法比拟的。     

Spatial Competition and Lowest Price Commitment

This paper suggests that credibly committing to the strictly lowest price can be profitable and self-fulfilling in a spatial price competition. Consumers live in multiple residential zones. Each zone has a store. Consumers incur heterogeneous transportation costs moving between two zones. When there is one store credibly committing to the strictly lowest price, there is a pure strategy equilibrium in which a discount store directly competes with all other stores. The discount store offers the lowest price, takes the largest market share, and makes more profits than the other stores. Moreover, the low price commitment is not binding in equilibrium, which implies that the commitment is self-fulfilling.     

住房价格梯度的空间互异性及影响因素——对北京城市空间结构的实证研究

基于单中心城市假设,利用特征价格模型对北京市住房价格空间梯度进行了实证研究,发现传统单中心假设由于与实际偏离较大,模型解释能力不强。纳入方向区域变量后的修正模型解释能力显著提高,住房价格梯度在各空间区域表现出显著差异,这种空间互异性主要受交通基础设施与城市空间结构的影响,与北京市的实际情况非常吻合。     

Price competition between big and small supermarkets: evidence from Seoul

This article empirically investigates the level of competition between superstores and smaller retailers in the Korean retail industry where market entry and operational hours of the former are restricted in order to protect the latter. Applying spatial econometric methods to store-level price data from Seoul, we find that while spatial price correlations among same-size stores exist, product prices across different-size stores are spatially uncorrelated. This result implies that consumers may not view superstores’ and smaller retailers’ products as close substitutes, and thus their markets are likely to be segmented from each other.     

双参考价格范围的价格判断试验研究

传统的价格判断模型考虑常规目标价格状态的判断,然而在不规范的市场中,商品良莠不齐,消费者常常面对超低的商品价格,按照传统的价格判断模型,消费者不会接受这种超低价,然而现实情况却不是如此。消费者为什么接受了怀疑的交易,面对超低价格,消费者如何判断价格的吸引力?笔者将对传统价格模型进行扩展,通过试验验证新的价格判断模型,用以解释以上问题。     

Time–Space Harmonization of Consumer Price Indexes in Euro-Zone Countries

The objective of this paper is to discuss the possibilities of attaining a time–space harmonization of the consumer price indexes that are elaborated by the 12 European Union (EU) Euro-zone countries and by Eurostat. After focusing on the duality of the time and space domains for price indexes elaboration, the basic elements of the methodology of estimation of consumer price indexes are delineated, both in time and space. Then, the harmonization of formulae and baskets is outlined, with emphasis on the latter. The current system of surveys for price collection is reviewed and its limits are underlined, in order to suggest a methodology for a consumer basket harmonized approach which ensures better harmonized indexes comparability, reduction of list of products, and unification of quality adjustment methods.     

普通住宅房价与地价因果关系的检验及其政策含义

本文在综述房价与地价关系研究成果的基础上,结合土地市场与住宅市场二者属性,构建一个认识房价与地价关系的基础。理论研究表明,在不完全竞争的市场中,地价是房价上涨的一个重要但非决定性因素,土地需求作为引致需求受房价影响较大。同时,本文利用1998年至2009年季度数据对房价和地价进行G ranger因果关系检测,计量结果表明：短期内房价与地价互为影响,房价对地价影响更为显著;长期内,房价是地价的G ranger因,而不是相反。计量结果可以揭示房地产市场信号短期与长期传递的机制。在此基础上,本文提出房地产市场治理的应对之策。     

Estimating Housing Price: Kriging the Mean

The price of houses and its evolution in recent years is one of the issues that citizens and, of course, political and economic authorities are worried about. In most of the developed countries the mean price (per square meter) of houses in an area is estimated by a simple average of single prices from a sample of houses that does not take into account the spatial correlation among the prices. As an alternative to this classic procedure, in this paper we propose a linear estimator of the mean price of houses, using the kriging estimator, which has been specially designed for the case of spatially correlated data in a given domain. This estimator is the best unbiased linear one and provides a more realistic estimate of the mean price of houses in the urban area we are interested in. Obviously, the modelling of the variogram function is a central point in the global estimation process.     

Price transmission in the international skim milk powder markets

This article investigates the strength and the pattern of spatial price linkages in skimmed milk powder markets using monthly wholesale price data from three major producers and exporters (the U.S.A., the E.U., and Oceania) and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. The results suggest that prices in the three regions considered are linked with stable long-run relationships. The law of one price, however, does not hold. The dominant pattern of transmission in the long run is asymmetric involving positive price stocks to be transmitted with higher intensity compared to negative prices shocks; asymmetries in price transmission exist in the short run as well.     

我国畜产品市场价格风险度量与分析

提出了利用VaR度量农产品现货市场风险的定量方法,并以我国鸡蛋、活鸡、牛肉、羊肉和猪肉五种畜产品的市场风险度量为例进行实证分析,研究结果表明,正态分布并不是拟合我国畜产品市场风险的最优分布模型,利用VaR度量农产品市场风险的方法切实可行。     

中国生猪价格波动特征分析

使用2000—2009年中国生猪批发价格月度数据,分析了我国生猪批发价格运动的轨迹。研究结果表明:近年来我国生猪批发价格年度内震荡加剧且具有明显的季节性波动特征。并利用ARCH模型对生猪批发价格波动的动态过程进行了分析,发现滞后1期及滞后5期的生猪批发价格变动与当期价格变动的方向相同,而滞后2期的批发价格对当期价格有回调作用。     

均衡价格--动态市场价格的形成与变化趋势

本介绍了用来模拟动态市场价格的微分方程模型，此模型反映了价格对需求与供给的影响，而需求与供给反过来又影响价格确定的过程，并说明了均衡价格是市场价格的最终变化趋势，并用蛛网理论对产量和价格的波动进行了分析。     

我国房价与地价关系的动态研究

在ECM模型的基础上,结合方差分解方法实证分析了我国房价与地价之间的关系。研究结果表明:房价与地价两者之间存在着双向Granger因果关系;房价与地价不论在长期还是在短期都相互影响,但是房价对地价的影响大于地价对房价的影响,且运用方差分解的方法也得到相同的结果,这就说明在房价与地价的关系中,房价对地价的影响比较大。     

Understanding International Price and Consumption Disparities

This study proposes a new measure of the tradability of 120+ commodities based on price dispersion. This approach is used to construct price indices of tradables and non-tradables for 150+ countries. The expenditure share of tradables is lower for richer countries, while the relative price of non-tradables, which plays an important role in the determination of real exchange rates, is higher. Secondly, a common-factor approach (based on principal components) is introduced to compress the large volume of information on prices and quantities consumed globally. We find that cross-commodity correlations are higher for prices than for consumption. In addition, income is responsible for most of the variation in the first principal component of consumption but explains less of the first price component. This suggests consumption are driven primarily by domestic factors, while prices are determined by factors outside the country, along the lines of the Purchasing Power Parity theory.     

基于享乐价格理论的旅游产品定价研究

基于享乐价格理对旅游景区的价格竞争力进行分析。首先根据旅游产品的特性构建景区价格评价体系,同时对分析指标进行分类量化;其次利用SPSS 17.0对所研究的旅游景区的面板数据进行多元回归分析,构建最优享乐价格模型。研究得出的结论为:景区林木覆盖率,水质,气候,景区基础设施,服务环境,景区级别,景区面积,导游受教育程度,景区的审美价值可以用来较好的解释景区的价格竞争力问题。     

基于少数据的城市住宅价格预测分析

本文选取了影响城市住宅价格的多种因素,结合中国城市住宅市场下少数据的具体现实,在灰色理论的预测方法与技术的基础上,基于单因素的GM(1,1)预测模型构建了城市住宅价格多因素预测模型,结合西安市的城市住宅价格以及相关数据构建了西安市城市住宅价格预测模型,并对西安市未来城市住宅价格进行了模拟预测.     

Price Indexes for US Medical Care Spending, 1980–2006

We construct price indexes for medical care spending in the US economy for the period 1980–2006. Our indexes show slower price growth than the official deflator from 1987–2001, consistent with the fact that indexes that improve on the official statistics typically find slower price growth than the official indexes. However, the result is reversed for the 2001–2006 time period. We develop a decomposition that parses out the numerical differences in these indexes into three factors that are held constant in the official price indexes but are not in our indexes: changes in the type of provider supplying care, changes in the type of insurance plan used by the patients, and changes in the bundle of procedures used to treat patients. Our results suggest that using the official price measures may provide misleading conclusions about spending trends and productivity growth in this important sector over this time period.