近60年渤黄海海冰灾害演变特征与经济损失浅析

在气候变暖、极端天气气候事件增多及承灾体脆弱性增大背景下,我国海冰灾害呈现出不易预测、破坏性大等新的特点。基于 1963-2016 年中国沿海海洋站海冰冰情数据及海冰灾害损失数据,分析了我国海冰灾害的变化特征及其影响。结果显示：我国渤海与黄海北部自 11 月中下旬由北往南开始结冰,各海区冰情存在较大差异。受气候变暖的影响,海冰冰情总体有降低的趋势,同时我国海冰冰情呈现约 10年的准周期性特征,且近年来极端天气气候事件的频次和强度不断增加,海冰灾害造成的影响进一步加重,2010 年以来由海冰灾害造成的直接经济损失高达 77 亿元,其中辽宁、山东两省受海冰灾害影响较为严重。因此,我国未来要进一步重视海冰灾害,增强防灾减灾能力建设,减轻灾害损失。     

运用灾害脆弱性分析提升医院电力保障能力

目的:通过开展灾害脆弱性分析,制定和完善医院电力保障相关管理制度、应急预案及处置流程,提高医院电力保障的能力.方法:分析医院目前的电力供应现状,查找医院需要重点保障的供电线路,运用灾害脆弱性分析作为改善工具,从医院供配电系统、应急电源系统、电力系统的应急管理等方面进行脆弱性分析并制定对策.结论:通过开展灾害脆弱性分析,有效提高医院电力保障的能力.     

自然灾害经济学研究新进展

社会复杂度的显著增加导致自然灾害与社会经济之间的关系变得日趋复杂,早期的自然灾害经济学研究已不能满足当下的灾害治理需求。近年来,随着数据可得性的提高与信息技术的飞速发展,自然灾害经济学研究也进入新阶段,研究对象不再局限于区域层面上的直接经济损失,而是重点考察宏观或微观层面的间接经济影响。本文基于现有最新文献,首先总结了自然灾害经济损失评估领域的新进展,包括直接经济损失评估和间接经济损失评估;然后分别从长期经济增长、劳动力市场、消费者行为以及婚育意愿四个方面对自然灾害事件的间接经济影响进行梳理归纳;最后总结了现有研究存在的不足,以期为未来我国的自然灾害经济学研究提供有用的参考。     

自然灾害的直接与间接损失评估——基于“交换权力”与一般均衡理论的分析

随着现代科学技术的进步,各国政府对与灾害产生的经济损失越来越重视。但是经典理论着重于从经济方面来直接评估灾害产生的直接与间接影响,忽视灾害对于人类社会所产生的"交换权力"的破坏与衍生问题。文章通过引用"交换权力"理论,运用一般均衡分析法以"交换权利均衡"来探究新的灾害评估方法。     

美国的极端天气预警及气候灾害应急机制研究

美国在总结暴雪、飓风、龙卷风、森林火灾等自然灾害的教训基础上,加强了对极端天气的预测和监测,不断完善对极端天气引发灾害的应急机制,提高基础设施的抗灾能力,注重对公民的减灾救灾教育.针对我国受灾地区在此次雪灾中暴露的薄弱环节,调研认为,我国应加强对重大气候灾害的精确预测和估计,增强基础设施抵御自然灾害的能力,在实践中不断完善各级政府的应急机制.     

我国的基础设施对比较优势的影响研究

笔者依据1984年～2007年中国工业各行业的数据,检验了交通、通讯、电力等基础设施等对我国比较优势的影响.研究结果表明:在样本期间,交通、通讯基础设施对比较优势的影响不明显;电力基础设施增长率对于制造业各类行业的比较优势的提升则相当重要,尤其是对于资本品和重工业中间产品行业.     

生物入侵造成经济损失评估的研究进展

生物入侵是生物多样性减少的最重要的因素之一,同时还造成巨大的经济损失,包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失。外来入侵物种造成经济损失评估的研究有助于相关政策的制定以及社会对生物入侵问题的认识与关注。从应用角度考虑,目前国内外对生物入侵造成经济损失的评估分为两类:一类是影响评估,即生态系统服务价值丧失的评估;另一类是政策决策评估,即入侵物种防治的经济分析。文章对国内外生物入侵产生的经济影响、经济损失评估内容及方法、研究面临的主要问题及未来研究趋势进行综述和展望,以期为该领域更深入的研究建立理论参考基础。     

石油城市经济系统脆弱性发生过程、机理及程度研究——以大庆市为例

石油城市作为资源型城市的一种,具有许多有别并严重于其它综合性城市的脆弱性问题。其中,石油资源主导下的经济系统脆弱性尤为突出并亟待调整规避。以石油城市为研究对象,探讨其经济系统脆弱性发生的过程、机理和特征。从人口、资源、环境与发展四方面分析了石油城市经济系统的特殊发展条件;指出石油城市经济系统脆弱性发生的四个过程,即:城市形成期——脆弱性产生、城市成长期——脆弱性增强但具有隐蔽性、城市成熟期——潜在脆弱性巨大、城市转型期——脆弱性接近最大化。认为"刚性的产业结构、接续产业发展不完善、替代产业不发达、产业转型困难、石油资源日益枯竭"是石油城市经济系统脆弱性发生的主要因素。构建脆弱性评估指标体系和评估模型,并以大庆市为例进行脆弱性程度评估,进而得出大庆市经济系统脆弱性呈逐步降低趋势,但是仍处在中等脆弱水平的结论。     

关于我国基础设施部门投入产出动态的研究

以电力及蒸汽、热水生产和供应业,运输邮电业两个部门为狭义基础设施部门,依据1995、1997和2000年的中国投入产出表,对这两个部门与全社会各部门间的动态经济依存关系和动态经济结构进行了详细地剖析,从新的角度得出基本结论:基础设施部门长期抑制我国经济运行的程度已有所缓解,并且它们对国民经济各部门生产的波及影响程度显著增强.     

暴雨天气下对山地城市交通安全的影响研究

随着山地城市的机动化水平不断提高,城市道路交通的拥挤趋势越来越严峻,出现的交通事故事件也逐年增加,因此交通的安全性也逐渐被人们重视.山地城市较其他平原类的一般城市相比,地理环境更为复杂,一旦出现交通事故,其结果往往比一般交通事故更为严重.平时道路交通的研究条件均为正常天气,而天气恶劣的情况下,会导致驾驶员的驾驶行为、道路交通运行状态以及该条件下的交通特性发生变化,使得交通系统产生一定的安全隐患.尽管许多研究都表明降雨会影响道路交通的安全运行,但是对于暴雨这类极端天气对山地城市道路交通流的特性的影响还并不多,对于暴雨天气下交通管理应急策略的制定缺乏相应的依据,因此,对暴雨天气下对山地城市交通安全影响的研究是非常必要的.     

CHINA AND WORLD OUTPUT IMPACT OF THE HUBEI LOCKDOWN DURING THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK

Using a network approach, we estimate the output loss due to the lockdown of the Hubei province triggered by the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19). Based on our most conservative estimate, China suffers about 4% loss of output from labor loss, and global output drops by 1% per period due to the economic contraction in China. About 40% of the impact is indirect, coming from spillovers through the supply chain inside and outside China. (JEL E23, E24, F62)     

地区间接融资的金融市场和外商直接投资的正溢出效应

利用我国各省市1985—2004年面板数据分析FDI在地区经济发展中的贡献差异,结果发现,FDI和经济增长没有必然的正相关关系,但是间接融资市场发展比较好的省市,FDI对当地经济的增长有很明显的正溢出效应。因此,加快地区间接融资市场发展,增强FDI的产业后向关联,对于提高FDI对我国地区经济增长的正溢出效应十分重要。     

税收结构与经济增长的实证分析—兼论我国的最优直接税/间接税结构

直接税包括农业税收对经济增长有显着的负作用,而流转税等间接税对经济增长的影响不显着;我国使经济增长最大化的最优直接税规模是占GDP的35%,最优的直接税/间接税比率是0.45,目前直接税和直接税/间接税比率均已超过其最优数量,应适当削减直接税。     

TOWARDS A DEFINITION OF NON-MARKET ACTIVITIES*

Recent attempts to measure value of household work and other non-market activities have been based on a simplistic interpretation of Opportunity Cost of Time Theory; this paper attempts to refine this and develop practical definitions from basic Utility Theory. First a distinction is made between economic and other activities, the former being the only ones subject to dollar-measurement; we recognize economic activities can occur outside the market and focus our analysis upon these latter. In the framework of Becker-Lancaster a Household-Production Function is posited which produces jointly such non-market economic activities-called indirect utility-and welfare or satisfaction- called utility. A criterion for identifying the indirect utility activities (Third-Person Criterion) is outlined, and related to time-use survey data. Finally, four practical estimation methods are outlined: simple opportunity cost of time; gross replacement cost; individual function replacement cost; and the full production function approach. This latter, which includes evaluation of capital contributions, is deemed theoretically most valid but for present purposes least practical because of lack of data on domestic capital stock. The paper concludes that there exists both a theoretical basis for valuing non-market activities, and the necessary data to apply the formulas developed.     

ENVIRONMENT-ECONOMIC ACCOUNTING AND INDICATORS OF THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ACTIVITIES

In this paper, we define environmental protection (EP) activities in the context of an input-output (I-O) framework. The U.S. I-O table is adjusted to separate inputs purchased by various economic sectors to abate pollution. We use I-O concepts and the I-O matrix adjusted for EP activities to derive a matrix of inputs to EP activities, which is independent of the matrix of inputs to traditional economic activities. This matrix is the basis for deriving measures of the economic importance of EP activities, including the size of EP activities relative to GNP and direct employment and indirect employment attributable to EP activities.     

VALUATION OF HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION AT MARKET PRICES AND ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS

This paper estimates household production functions directly, considers their characteristics, and compares them with previous indirectly estimated functions. Interviews with 135 Missoula, Montana area married couple households provided the data. The results suggest that endogeneity and a previous lack of output and capital data which led to the use of the indirect methodology are not insurmountable problems. The results tend to confirm the feasibility of directly measuring household outputs since the production function results are reasonable. Directly estimated household production functions offer the possibilities for estimation of short-term household output changes and testing hypotheses about households' economic behavior.     

Production and Employment Impacts of Biotechnology —Input-output Analysis for Germany

Biotechnology is often regarded as a key technology with high potential for far-reaching social, environmental and economic impacts. Among others, the development and diffusion of biotechnology may have considerable economic effects on production and employment. This paper analyses the economic impacts of different prospective diffusion paths of biotechnology in some major application fields for Germany. Bottom-up technology information from the literature, expert judgements and explicit scenario assumptions for various impact factors are combined and integrated in an input-output framework to calculate direct and indirect production and employment effects. The impact on net production and employment differs greatly between the different application sectors and depends on the respective importance of the various impact mechanisms. The indirect economic effects are rather high and exceed the direct economic effects. These findings show the importance of a bottom-up approach as well as the consideration of the indirect economic effects for appropriate analyses of the impact of biotechnology.     

DRIVERS OF PRO‐ACTIVE MEMBER PARTICIPATION IN AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL

Effective governance of cooperatives depends on the pro‐active participation of members in the governance. However, it is commonly argued that, especially in cooperatives with high heterogeneity of membership, additional decision‐making and influencing costs could emerge if members who participate in the governance do so to obtain direct or indirect economic benefits at the individual farm level. The objective of this paper is to assess whether or not farmers’ economic motivations for continued association are relevant drivers of pro‐active participation. Data originate from 148 farmers from a large agricultural cooperative in Brazil. The results suggest that economic motivations for continued association are drivers of participation in the General Assembly, but not of ‘pro‐active’ participation in boards and committees.     

技术创新与产业结构转型的地区经济增长效应

选取2006-2016年中国内地30个省（市、区）数据,构建动态空间杜宾模型并结合中介效应模型,研究技术创新影响经济增长的直接效应,以及产业结构转型对经济增长的间接效应。研究结果发现：我国经济增长存在正向空间溢出效应;经济增长具有动态、积极的正向连续性特征。在直接效应方面,本地区技术创新对经济增长呈显著正向影响,而周边地区技术创新呈显著负向影响;产业结构合理化对经济增长呈显著负向影响,产业结构高级化呈显著正向影响;技术创新与产业结构转型融合缓解了产业结构合理化对经济增长的抑制程度,提升了产业结构高级化对经济的促进效果。在间接效应方面,产业结构转型是技术创新与经济增长的中间传导环节,产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化均为正向中介效应。本地区技术创新对经济增长的直接效应大于间接效应,周边技术创新对经济增长的直接效应小于间接效应。