The Evolution and Driving Force on Integrating Environmental Protection and High-Quality Economic Development

An index system is constructed to measure the integration of environmental protection and high-quality economic development in different cities in China from 2006 to 2018, and to explore its evolution and driving forces. From the three dimensions of integration foundation, integration depth and integration performance, this paper adopts AHP-Entropy combined weighting method to build the integration index. In addition, this paper comprehensively uses exponential decomposition, comparative analysis and σ convergence and divergence analysis to explore the spatio-temporal differences and dynamic mechanisms. The results show that the overall integration level of China’s cities continues to improve, of which technological progress is the core driving force, the transformation of development mode is a crucial path, and the intensity of environmental governance is the key support. The evolution and driving forces of the integration level of first-tier cities, new first-tier cities and other cities are significantly different. Promoting integration level is a critical way for resource-based cities to break the resource curse. Urban agglomeration integration led by the growth pole can effectively improve the overall regional integration level. This paper innovates that the relationship between environmental protection and high-quality economic development is discussed from the perspective of integration, and the paths to improve the integration level of resource-based cities and urban agglomerations are identified. This paper is helpful to clarify the differences in integration levels and driving forces of different cities, and provide a reference value for the precise implementation of high-quality development and “beautiful China.”     

Exploring past and future changes in the ecological footprint for world regions

The Ecological Footprint (EF) has received considerable attention as a useful indicator in the context of sustainable development. So far, it has mostly been applied as a static indicator. Here, we have derived a set of long-term EF scenarios for 17 world regions using the IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the IPCCs SRES scenarios. The scenarios are used to discuss potential trends in EFs in different world regions but also to analyse underlying trends driving changes in the EF. The baseline scenarios show the EF for real land use only (not accounting for CO₂) to increase further in the next few decades in most world regions, being driven by population growth, changes in human diets towards more land-intensive products and overall increases in consumption levels. Future crop yield improvements and technology development will partly offset these trends, resulting in decreasing per capita EFs, but increasing total EFs. In the longer term, EF development may strongly diverge on the basis of assumptions made in the different baseline scenarios (from 5.4 Gha at present to 6.0–8.2 Gha in 2050 depending on the scenario). The aggregated EF following the definition of Wackernagel et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 99 (2002) 9266–9271) (including virtual land for CO₂) increases more strongly, from 12.6 to 20–31 Gha depending on the different scenarios. An alternative scenario was developed to explore whether optimistic assumptions for changes in consumption and production patterns could limit the increase of the global EF, which limited EF increase to 15 Gha in 2050. This scenario still allowed for population growth and strong economic development in low-income regions.     

Sensitivity analysis of environmentally extended input–output models as a tool for building scenarios of sustainable development

There is an urgent need to develop scenarios and roadmaps for a more sustainable future than where business-as-usual is heading. This paper addresses the use of sensitivity analysis for analyzing environmentally extended input–output (EEIO) models in order to develop cost-effective and comprehensive scenario building. Main components of resource use, emission intensity and final demand are extracted from the complete network of interactions contained in the input–output tables of the national accounts. The method is demonstrated using a detailed Finnish EEIO-model (ENVIMAT). Based on the results, only 0.3% of the 23 103 interactions were found to have a significant effect on Finnish greenhouse gas emissions. The same parameters were also relevant for waste generation and land use, but not for gross domestic product. The identified main components were tested by structural decomposition. Actual development of greenhouse gas emissions from 2002 to 2005 was compared to that predicted by updating only the identified components. Based on the results, the development of greenhouse gas emissions could be predicted with high accuracy using only the identified main components. Generalizing the results, sensitivity analysis can assist in identifying the main components to be included in future scenarios for sustainable development.     

Analysis of changes in Dutch emission trade balance(s) between 1996 and 2007

In this paper we construct bilateral emission trade balances (ETB) for The Netherlands with 17 regions and compare results for 1996 and 2007 for three different greenhouse gasses. We establish a cross-sectional analysis of bilateral ETBs into a volume of trade, composition and technology effect. In order to analyze the driving forces of changes over time we perform a structural decomposition analysis of embodied import and export emissions. The main findings are that the embodied import emissions have increased by 37% whereas export emissions increased by only 3%, which is primarily driven by CO₂. The 2007 bilateral balances are positive with OECD countries but negative with economies such as Russia, Africa and China. The analyses demonstrate that the worsening of the ETB is to a large extent caused by the changing composition of trade: the Dutch economy increasingly exports clean products and imports dirty products.     

Input-output analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China-Japan trade

Energy-related CO₂ emissions embodied in international trade have been widely studied by researchers all over the world. By using the bilateral trade input–output (BTIO) approach, this study investigates the CO₂ emissions embodied in China–Japan trade during 1995–2009 and attempts to identify the driving forces for the change in CO₂ emissions embodied in China’s exports to Japan during that period by using structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Result shows that CO₂ emissions embodied in China’s exports increased by about 100% from 1995 to 2009, whereas those embodied in China’s imports increased by about 500% during the same period. Result of this research also reveals that the scale effect had a large influence on the increase in CO₂ emissions embodied in China–Japan trade. The technical effect greatly decreased CO₂ emissions embodied in China’s exports to Japan, but obviously increased those embodied in imports. The influence of the structural effect was relatively small and insignificant in the change of CO₂ emissions embodied in China’s exports to Japan, but was notable in the change of emissions embodied in imports.     

Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization

This paper presents an overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios that form the analytical backbone for other contributions to this Special Issue. We first describe the motivation behind this scenario exercise and introduce the main scenario features and characteristics, in both qualitative and quantitative terms. Altogether, we analyze three ‘baseline’ scenarios of different socio-economic and technological developments that are assumed not to include any explicit climate policies. We then impose a range of climate stabilization targets on these baseline scenarios and analyze in detail the feasibility, costs and uncertainties of meeting a range of different climate stabilization targets in accordance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The scenarios were developed by the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework that encompasses detailed representations of the principal GHG-emitting sectors—energy, industry, agriculture, and forestry. The main analytical findings from our analysis focus on the implications of salient uncertainties (associated with scenario baselines and stabilization targets), on feasibility and costs of climate stabilization efforts, and on the choice of appropriate portfolios of emissions abatement measures. We further analyze individual technological options with regards to their aggregated cumulative contribution toward emissions mitigation during the 21st century as well as their deployment over time. Our results illustrate that the energy sector will remain by far the largest source of GHG emissions and hence remain the prime target of emissions reduction. Ultimately, this may lead to a complete restructuring of the global energy system. Climate mitigation could also significantly change the relative economics of traditional versus new, more climate friendly products and services. This is especially the case within the energy system, which accounts for the largest share of emissions reductions, but it is also the case in the agriculture and forestry sectors, where emissions reduction and sink enhancement measures are relatively more modest.     

Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007-2020

By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system.     

Input–output analysis of CO2 emissions embodied in trade and the driving forces: Processing and normal exports

In recent years, energy-related CO₂ emissions embodied in international trade and the driving forces have been widely studied by researchers using the environmental input–output framework. Most previous studies however, do not differentiate different input structures in manufacturing processing exports and normal exports. Using China as an example, this paper exemplifies how implications of results obtained using different export assumptions differ. The study posits that the utilization of traditional I–O model results in an overestimation of emissions embodied in processing exports and an underestimation in normal exports. The estimate of CO₂ emissions embodied in China's exports drops by 32% when the extended I–O model is used. The choice of export assumption has more impact on the decomposition results for processing exports. The study further highlights that for a country with an export structure similar to China, it is meaningful to look into the impact of export assumption in embodied emission studies.     

TOE框架下智慧城市治理路径的前因组态研究——基于35个重点城市的模糊集定性比较分析

作为一种新型的城市治理模式，智慧城市为经济社会赋能的重要性日益凸显，但现有研究缺乏对智慧城市影响因素和治理路径的深入探讨。针对这一现象，在技术-组织-环境（TOE）框架基础上，构建了智慧城市治理的理论分析框架，并运用模糊集定性比较分析法（fsQCA）对中国35个重点城市案例进行组态分析，研究发现：大数据发展水平缺乏是低水平智慧城市治理绩效的瓶颈条件；高水平智慧城市治理绩效存在4条“殊途同归”的驱动路径，具体分为两种模式，分别是“技术+组织”主导下的治理模式，“组织+环境”主导下的治理模式；低水平治理的前因组态与高水平治理的前因组态形成非对称关系。研究结论有助于加深对智慧城市的治理路径与作用机理的深入探讨。     

Scaffolding,software and scenarios: Applying Bruner's learning theory to energy scenario development with the public

While there is a literature on public and stakeholder engagement in environmental research and scenario development, less attention has been given to the individual learning processes that take place in these contexts. We present public perceptions of emission contraction scenarios for the UK city of Manchester and discuss this in terms of learning theory developed by Lev Vygotsky and Jerome Bruner. A key theme of this was the combination of three learning tools: scaffolding techniques, scenario building and backcasting. Overall, participants had little trouble envisaging a city-scale 41% CO₂ emissions reduction by 2020 relative to a 2005 baseline. However envisaging a 90% CO₂ emissions reduction for 2050 was found much more difficult, inducing discussion of whether some forms of compulsion might be justifiable. Despite detailed discussion and real-time, modelled feedback on the emissions implications of various energy technology scenarios, participants largely retained their original attitudes towards individual technologies and demand reduction options.     

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro-drivers (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops.     

低碳经济发展中的碳排放驱动因素实证研究——以浙江省为例

本文基于三大产业和居民生活部门的12种能源消费量数据,较全面地测算了1995—2008年浙江省碳排放量,建立了碳排放驱动因素分解模型,将碳排放的驱动因素分解为能源强度、结构调整、经济发展和人口规模等四大类效应,并采用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)测算了各类效应对碳排放量的贡献值、变化趋势及相互作用机理。研究结果表明,1995—2008年,浙江省碳排放量呈现不断上升的趋势;经济发展和人口规模对碳排放的正向驱动效应远超过能源强度和结构调整产生的负向驱动效应。本文同时测算出浙江已跨越了碳排放强度的高峰阶段,但仍处于碳排放强度高峰迈向人均碳排放量高峰的阶段。为缩短不同碳排放高峰的跨越时间,降低高峰峰值,本文提出了加快低碳经济发展的相关政策建议。     

Swedish CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions 1993–2006: An Application of Decomposition Analysis and Some Methodological Insights

This study undertakes a decomposition analysis to identify the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions change in the Swedish business and industry sectors 1993–2006. On aggregate, energy intensity decreased, but this does not seem to have been very important for reducing emissions. Rather, fuel substitution seems to have been more important, which is in line with findings from the decomposition literature on Sweden. However, at the sectoral level, we find no clear pattern of the effect of fuel substitution and energy intensity on emissions. We also draw some methodological conclusions: decomposition analysis should be undertaken at the most disaggregate level possible; assessing decomposition results by summing results over several time periods leads to biased results; and decomposition analysis should not be based only on some initial and final years of a long time period. Furthermore, we address the problem of double counting energy flows in decomposition analysis of aggregate effects when the energy sector is included, and point out potential problems related to output measured in monetary terms.     

我国碳排放量情景预测研究——基于环境规制视角

国民经济的迅速发展,碳排放问题已经成为社会关注的焦点,低碳经济发展模式成为实现可持续发展的重要途径.估算1994-2009年中国碳排放量和环境规制强度数据,将环境规制因素纳入到Kaya公式中,构建改进的人均碳排放量分解计算公式,情景预测2010-2020年中国人均碳排放量.结果表明,不同情境下我国人均碳排放量增幅有较大差异,碳排放量与经济增长之间存在着密切联系.     

Co-evolutionary scenarios for creative prototyping of future robot systems for civil protection

Co-evolutionary scenarios are used for creative prototyping with the purpose of assessing potential implications of future autonomous robot systems on civil protection. The methodology is based on a co-evolutionary scenario approach and the development of different evolutionary paths. Opportunities, threats and ethical aspects in connection with the introduction of robotics in the domestic security and safety sector are identified using an iterative participatory workshop methodology. Three creative prototypes of robotic systems are described: “RoboMall”, “RoboButler” and “SnakeSquad”. The debate in society that might follow the introduction of these three robot systems and society's response to the experienced ethical problems and opportunities are discussed in the context of two scenarios of different future societies.     

A comparison of alternative technologies to de-carbonize Canada's passenger transportation sector

Using a full systems model of Canada's economy, six alternative scenarios to de-carbonize the personal passenger vehicle fleet are compared to a business as usual non de-carbonized scenario in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, trade disposition of energy commodities, and the physical resources required for energy production. Three scenarios are analyzed to compare the impacts of increasing either ethanol 85, hydrogen, or electricity powered vehicles into the vehicle fleet, with each starting to penetrate the light vehicle stock in 2010 to reach 100% of the new vehicle market by 2050. For each of these three scenarios, we then construct a variant scenario that considers the additional effects of de-carbonizing electricity production. With a de-carbonized electricity sector, net emission reductions are 29% for ethanol 85, and 31% for both hydrogen and electricity. When considering the transportation sector only, net emission reductions equal 13% for ethanol 85, and 14% for hydrogen and electricity. However, although the ethanol scenario results in the lowest reduction in total emissions, it has significant impacts on other parts of the physical resource base. By the time ethanol reaches 5% of the fuel mix in 2015, domestic consumption of grains increases by 20%, in turn impacting crop trade disposition. At this point, emissions are reduced by less than 0.5%, owing to the fossil fuels required since most ethanol is still grain based. By 2050 it is projected that almost all ethanol will be cellulose based, generating a more significant emission reduction but in turn requiring potentially unsustainable amounts of crop residue.     

The effectiveness of anti-leakage policies in the European Union: results for Austria

With the third trading period of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) starting in 2013, the system of allocating emission allowances will significantly change: In contrast to the previous two trading periods, auctioning of the allowances should now be the rule rather than the exception. Accompanying this policy change, concerns over competitiveness of energy intensive, trade exposed sectors as well as over limited environmental effectiveness via the channel of carbon leakage, have regained prominence. In this paper, we thus explore the impacts of potential EU policies to counter losses in international competitiveness and carbon leakage from the perspective of Austria. Based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model, we evaluate three policy options: an input subsidy for carbon allowances (thus reflecting the planned partially free allocation mechanism in the third EU ETS phase), a subsidy for domestic production, and an export rebate based on sectoral CO₂ costs. Our results show that each policy has the potential to support domestic production in exposed sectors relative to a full auctioning scenario and thus increase competitiveness. However, none is imperatively effective at reducing Austria’s net carbon emissions: while the carbon trade balance is improved and hence leakage declines, the tradability of emission permits within the EU ETS allows CO₂ emissions from Austria’s ETS output to increase. A cost benefit analysis indicates that the two policies promoting domestic output and exports are more cost effective than the CO₂ input subsidy.     

Optimal Timing of CCS Policies with Heterogeneous Energy Consumption Sectors

Using the Chakravorty et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 30:2875–2904, 2006) ceiling model, we characterize the optimal consumption paths of three energy resources: dirty oil, which is non-renewable and carbon emitting; clean oil, which is also non-renewable but carbon-free thanks to an abatement technology, and solar energy, which is renewable and carbon-free. The resulting energy-mix can supply the energy needs of two sectors. These sectors differ in the additional abatement cost they have to pay for consuming clean rather than dirty oil, as Sector 1 (industry) can abate its emissions at a lower cost than Sector 2 (transport). We show that it is optimal to begin by fully capturing Sector 1’s emissions before the ceiling is reached. Also, there may be optimal paths along which the capture devices of both sectors must be activated. In this case, Sector’s 1 emissions are fully abated first, before Sector 2 abates partially. Finally, we discuss the way heterogeneity of abatement costs causes sectoral energy price paths to differ.     

Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.