面向21世纪的韩国汽车产业

面向２１世纪的韩国汽车产业李东哲汽车制造是韩国主导产业之一。面向周世纪，韩国为发展自己的主导性产业，增强国际竞争力，提出了汽车制造业新的发展战略，采取了一系列新举措。着眼大发展提出新目标据预测，面向２１世纪，韩国的汽车产业将以１２．７％的速度增长，到...     

基于专利角度探讨中国汽车行业技术发展现状及趋势分析

本文对我国汽车产业的专利现状进行探讨，对我国汽车产业发展的技术现状进行剖析，指出了我国汽车产业发展的技术路径，并根据具体技术路径进行专利战略的选择。     

宏观经济与汽车产业相关性的国际比较研究

由于轿车(乘用车)最能反映一国汽车产业与国家经济的关联,因此本文通过对美国、德国、日本和韩国轿车产出量与宏观经济之间的相关性研究,发现各国成熟时期的汽车产业发展与国民收入、投资、汽车产品出口之间存在正向相关关系,而产业结构变动对汽车产业的作用在不同发展阶段存在差异,深入分析和把握这些相关关系能够较准确地了解各国汽车产业特性与成功的发展经验,对于我国汽车产业的发展也有着重大的指导意义。     

“现代”启示录:以服务创品牌

当竞争对手非常强大,你如何突围求生,打开一个陌生的市场?现代汽车的答案是靠"服务"。韩国的汽车工业开始于上世纪60年代,几乎与中国同步,由于缺乏汽车生产技术,只能以组装进口零部件的方式开始造车,除了车标,一切都是舶来。此后10多年,韩国的汽车产业发展非常缓慢。1970     

国外新能源汽车产业政策动向及对我国的启示

新能源汽车作为汽车电动化、低碳化的重要发展方向,对于提高产业竞争力、改善未来能源结构、发展低碳交通具有深远意义。全球主要发达国家和地区都将新能源汽车作为未来发展的重要战略方向并加快产业布局。美国、日本、德国、韩国、英国从战略规划、研发创新、推广应用、智能网联等方面制定了新能源汽车产业政策,对我国新能源汽车产业政策的制定有一定借鉴意义。结合我国新能源汽车产业的实际情况,应发挥法律法规引导作用,加强车辆安全监督管理,提高关键核心技术创新能力,提升产业协同发展效率,推进新能源汽车产业国际化。     

对中国汽车发展自主品牌的思考

随着经济的快速稳定发展,我国汽车产业已成为全国最大的亮点。与此同时,中国如何实现汽车自主开发和自主品牌创建问题也成为关注的热点。本文通过借鉴韩国、日本、马来西亚等国发展汽车自主品牌的经验,对比我国汽车产业现状,提出了加快创建我国汽车工业自主品牌的策略和政策建议。     

基于专利角度探讨中国汽车行业技术发展现状及趋势分析

本文对我国汽车产业的专利现状进行探讨,对我国汽车产业发展的技术现状进行剖析,指出了我国汽车产业发展的技术路径,并根据具体技术路径进行专利战略的选择.     

从底特律危机看我国加快经济转型升级的紧迫性——以苏南地区为例

底特律曾经是一个人口达到180万的美国第四大城市，是拥有成千上万家汽车相关企业的著名汽车城，也是美国第一个铺设水泥公路和建成城市高速公路的城市。底特律辉煌时80％的经济依靠汽车产业，由此形成一个汽车产业链条，汽车年产量约为美国的四分之一，从业人员近20万人，占全市职工总数的40％以上。但从20世纪60年代末以后，欧洲、日本和韩国等地汽车制造业发展迅速，冲击美国汽车业，     

基于蛙跳效应的我国汽车产业集群升级路径研究——以湖北汽车产业集群为例

产业集群目前已成为我国汽车产业的主要组织形式之一。受经济全球化影响,我国汽车产业集群已经嵌入全球生产网络(GPNs)中,但大多没有形成自主创新能力,处于受核心集群控制的外围集群地位。以湖北汽车产业集群为例,从集群共性技术创新的角度探索了实现集群蛙跳式发展的可能性。     

促进节能环保汽车发展的国际经验

美国、欧盟、日本和韩国等主要汽车生产国普遍从实现能源环境目标和提升本国汽车产业竞争力的高度来看待和鼓励节能环保汽车的发展.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。