轮胎上的较量——中美爆发轮胎"特保"争端

尽管在意料之中,但得知美国总统奥巴马宣布对中国输美轮胎开征特保关税后,中国还是表示出有克制的愤怒.之前,为了说服奥巴马否定美国钢铁工人联合会提出的对中国输美轮胎逐年加征惩罚性关税的提案,中国橡胶工业协会和商务部有关官员特意从北京赶到华盛顿进行多方斡旋.     

中国轮胎工业面临的困难及国有轮胎企业应对初探

中国的轮胎工业经过近些年的发展已形成一定的规模.但是受金融危机、通货膨胀以及石油下游产品价格的急剧上涨影响,导致成本增加,利润大幅下降.特别是中国轮胎的最大进口国美国于2009年9月份通过了"轮胎特保案"及2010年欧盟即将实施的REACH法规,将对我国轮胎企业产生非常不利的影响.本文试从分析中国轮胎工业面临的困境入手,探讨国有轮胎企业摆脱困境的措施.     

中美轮胎特保案:小车轮引起大摩擦

受出口大幅下滑影响,今年以来我国轮胎行业主要经济指标同比下降的速度均为两位数,1/3的企业亏损。此背景下,6月29日,美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)以中国轮胎扰乱美国市场为由,建议对中国输美乘用车与轻型卡车轮胎连续3年分别加征55%、45%和35%的特别关税。此事件被称为中美轮胎特保案。4月20日美国钢铁工业协会宣布,依据美国1974年贸易法第421条款,向美国国际贸易委员会提出对中国输美商用轮胎的特殊保障措施案申请,要求美政府对中国出口的用于客车、轻型卡车、迷你面包车和运动型汽车的2100万个轮胎实施进口配额限制。自此,轮胎特保案拉开帷幕。至9月11日:美国白宫宣布,总统奥巴马决定对中国轮胎特保案实施限制关税,为期3年。白宫在一份声明中表示,第1年将对从中国进口的轮胎加征35%关税,第2年加征30%,第3年加征25%。     

中国轮胎工业面临的困难及国有轮胎企业应对初探

中国的轮胎工业经过近些年的发展已形成一定的规模。但是受金融危机、通货膨胀以及石油下游产品价格的急剧上涨影响，导致成本增加，利润大幅下降。特别是中国轮胎的最大进口国美国于2009年9月份通过了“轮胎特保案”及2010年欧盟即将实施的REACH法规，将对我国轮胎企业产生非常不利的影响。本文试从分析中国轮胎工业面临的困境入手，探讨国有轮胎企业摆脱困境的措施。     

风神轮胎开拓海外市场的成功经验研究

中国是全球最大的轮胎制造国、出口国,纵观我国轮胎产业,风神轮胎在开拓国际市场的进程中,走在了其它企业的前面.其在海外市场尤其是欧美高端市场的产品售价、市场占有率均居国内品牌第一位,并且是中国轮胎行业首家也是唯一一家获得出口免验资格的企业,其提升质量管理、推动自主品牌建设、推广绿色轮胎的成功经验值得研究与学习借鉴.     

我国贸易救济困境分析及对策

2009年9月11日,美国总统奥巴马宣布针对从中国进口的小轿车和轻型卡车轮胎实施为期三年的高额惩罚性关税,重新挑起国际贸易争端,严重损害了中国出口商和美国相关消费者的切身利益,更重要的是这种贸易保护行为违     

青岛『双星』为何托管『东风轮胎』

自2005年3月18日以来，位于青岛的双星集团(以下简称“双星”)托管位于十堰的东风轮胎公司(以下简称“东风轮胎”)的举动，成为众多媒体争相报道的热点。一致评论此举是“双星集团老总汪海正实现着由‘中国鞋王’到‘轮胎大王’的角色转变”，“对其轮胎产业的战略意义远大于战术意义”，并指出，此举“宣告了我国轮胎行业新一轮整合大潮的提前到来”。     

轮胎特保案的限制性关税,我国该如何应对

本刊在上一期(2009年9月刊)刊登了《轮胎特保案:奥巴马时代中美贸易摩擦第一案》的文章,分析了轮胎特保案可能出现的三种结果,并预测奥巴马最有可能采取折中方案,即在4.4%的正常关税与55%     

中美轮胎特保案虽败犹荣

早在2009年4月29日，美国国际贸易委员会启动对来自中国输美轮胎的调查，同年9月11日奥巴马代表美国政府宣布，对中国出口至美国的乘用车轮胎产品采取特别保障措施，     

输美轮胎特保案的宏观微观效应分析

在全球危机背景下,正当各国采取各种措施努力摆脱经济困境时,随着中国外贸形势的逐渐好转,以美国为首的一些国家对中国轮胎实施特别保障措施,使中国轮胎出口的竞争态势和市场格局发生很大变化。本文从宏观经济效应、微观经济效应两方面来分析特别保障措施对中国轮胎的出口及中国轮胎产业的影响,希望对中国轮胎企业发展有所帮助。     

直接投资引致的美中贸易逆差:经验研究

运用基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验模型,在商品分类层面研究关中贸易逆差与关国对华直接投资的内在联系。结果显示：从长期和短期来看,中国制成品的出口都是关中贸易逆差的“因”,中国制成品的出口与关国对华直接投资之间具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,因此关国进入中国的FDI,尤其是进入制造业的FDI越多,美中贸易逆差就越大;美中贸易逆差是结构性的,它不仅不会在短期内消除,而且会随着美国劳动密集型产业向中国的进一步转移而加剧。     

关于美国轮胎特保案的反思

美国金融危机蔓延导致全球经济出现衰退，贸易保护主义逐渐抬头。2009年9月发生的美国轮胎特保案就是典型的例子。中国企业应该加快推进产业结构升级和国内市场拓展，积极开展区域性贸易合作，实现出口多元化，积极发挥行业协会规范价格，以“特保案”为契机，通过增强国际竞争优势和挖掘国内市场潜力，实现对贸易保护主义的有效突围。     

Protection by international transport charges: Analysis by stage of fabrication

This study employs the effective protection model to evaluate the incidence of ad valorem transport charges (freight factors) on U.S. imports at various stages in the production process, with special emphasis on their impact upon the development of manufacturing activities in LDC's. Freight factors, unlike tariffs, are not found to display a widespread tendency to escalate by fabrication stage, and do not appear to bear more heavily on products of major export interest to LDC's than on U.S. imports from industrial nations. Results suggest forces other than transport charges are primarily responsible for inhibiting the growth of manufacturing export industries in LDC's.     

The Effects of Tariffs and Export Subsidies on Entry Barriers and Investment

This paper explains the effects of unilateral tariffs and export subsidies on entry decisions in an imperfectly competitive industry, and suggests that carefully targeted trade policies play a strategic role in shifting the industry structure and the terms of subsequent competition. The model provides a new justification for tariffs which is different from the traditional infant industry argument; the tariff affects foreign firms' reactions as well as those of the domestic firms. [410]     

An economic model of search and matching in international trade

A framework is developed to explain export participation among firms that produce differentiated products and may choose to exert costly effort to find foreign buyers. Export participation is linked to firm search costs, importer search costs, tariffs, the rate of contract breakdown, the distribution of bargaining power, and the degree of product differentiation. Propositions are derived that shed light on historic changes in export participation among firms while also generating hypotheses for further study. The model is applied to small U.S. food manufacturers and is shown to be able to explain changes in export participation among such firms.     

Inventories and antidumping: the case of orange juice trade

The United States and Brazil are key players in the international market for orange juice, mainly frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ). The U.S. orange juice industry benefits from one of the highest levels of import protection in U.S. agriculture. Additional trade protection was recently added with a U.S. industry victory in an antidumping trade suit against Brazil. We study the impact of FCOJ imports from Brazil on U.S. prices using time series econometric models and find only a weak FCOJ domestic price response to imports from Brazil, because extremely large U.S. inventories mute the price impact of any fluctuation in imports. Our findings imply that the antidumping tariffs were unjustified based on a material injury argument.     

Tariff evasion and rules of origin violations under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Abstract Using product‐level data on trade between Canada and the U.S., this paper presents evidence of tariff evasion and violation of the rules of origin occurring under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). It shows that more imports go unreported at the destination country when tariffs are higher. Consistent with the tariff evasion hypothesis, this result implies that the trade creation effect of a free trade agreement may in fact be due to less underreporting. Further, this paper shows that the larger Canadian tariff preference margin for the U.S. is associated with more goods originating in third countries being transshipped through the U.S. territory for re‐export. The preference margin is also positively correlated with the value of excess imports from the U.S., which qualify for preferential treatment. Both results suggest the presence of persistent violations of CUSFTA’s rules of origin.     

人民币汇率变动对多国经济增长和产业结构影响的地缘经济分析

将全世界划分为10个国家(或地区),在全球经济一般均衡框架下,模拟并分析了不同汇率情景下各国和地区的经济增长和产业结构的变化。模拟结果显示:中国的GDP将于2035年超过美国;人民币升值会导致中国的GDP增速放缓,而对其他国家的GDP增长有促进作用;人民币贬值有利于中国GDP的增长,但不利于其他国家GDP的增长;人民币升值后,中国农业、轻工业和建筑业的比重下降,食品加工业、能源业、化学工业和重工业的比重上升,而印度和俄罗斯与中国在地缘经济上是竞争关系,欧美国家与中国在地缘经济上是合作关系,因此印度和俄罗斯的产业结构变化与中国大致相反,而欧美国家的产业结构变化趋势与中国类似。     

Endogenous trade policy in general equilibrium: An interaction of redistribution rule,trade openness,and labor market condition

Using a general equilibrium framework, the paper derives trade policy endogenously for a small country. It shows that, contrary to the existing literature, a lobbying industry is not guaranteed trade protection; it may even face trade taxes. Besides lobbying, trade policy depends on other factors such as the trade revenue distribution rule, income distribution across groups, trade openness, factor substitutability in production, industry employment size, and labor market flexibility. The paper also shows that the observed phenomenon of government preference for import tariffs over export subsidies—a long overdue puzzle—is an inherent outcome of lobbying equilibrium. It also shows that trade policies such as import tariffs and export taxes that have the same impact on economic market—Lerner symmetry (1936)—are driven by the same forces in the political market.     

A Supply and Demand Exposition of a Constitutional Tax Loophole: The Case of Tariff Symmetry

The U.S. Constitution permits import tariffs but bans export duties. Yet import taxes are de facto export taxes, just as export taxes are de facto import taxes. Access to this symmetry proposition has been limited by its illustration being in daunting analytics largely restricted to international economics. This is unfortunate. Tariff symmetry exposes a tax loophole of constitutional proportions, a case where economics trumps the intentions of America's Founding Fathers. Moreover, tariff revenue was the U.S. government's pivotal revenue source from 1789 until the 1913 constitutional sanctioning of the income tax. Because U.S. exports were heavily agricultural, tariff symmetry implies that federal taxation had an export dimension with disparate economic and regional consequences. By making tariff symmetry more accessible, this paper lowers the cost of examining important issues.