内外部能源价差对我国工业部门能源效率的影响研究

引入能源价格的Cobb-Douglas成本函数,利用能源效率的经验决定模型对影响我国工业部门能源效率的因素进行实证分析,特别是利用蛉回归对我国工业部门36个二位数行业进行行业分析并在此基础上运用面板数据模型对我国整个工业部门的能源效率影响因素的作用力度进行测量.结果显示:行业产值、技术水平、产业结构和能源消费结构构成工业部门能源效率的直接原因,同时内外部能源价差通过其他因素对能源效率的作用明显.总体来看,产业结构的优化升级以及能源消费结构的调整对于能源效率的提高尚有很大的空间,实践中应强调能源价格政策在提高能源效率和节能减排过程中的积极意义.     

可再生能源电能消纳市场模式研究

我国正处在电力体制改革和能源价格形成机制转型的关键时期,选择合适的经济手段,进一步研究与能源价格形成机制和政策体系相协调和配合的可再生能源电能消纳市场模式,对促进我国可再生能源电能的发展至关重要。文章针对我国现行可再生能源电价政策的特点和问题,结合我国各类可再生能源发电技术的特点,提出了可再生能源电能消纳市场模式选择方案,并针对近期内完善风电、太阳能电能和生物质电能的现有价格机制和市场模式改革提出具体的建议。     

浙江省能源强度影响因素的实证研究

以浙江省1990-2008年数据为基础，采用协整分析方法和误差修正模型分析了能源价格，产业结构变化，经济发展水平，能源结构及R＆D投入对浙江省能源效率的影响。研究发现，经济发展水平的提高有利于降低能源强度；能源价格对能源强度的影响并不显著，R＆D投入的增加却导致能源强度的提高；而产业结构和能源结构的优化将会提高能源效率，降低能源强度。     

资本体现式技术进步和TFP对节能降耗影响分析

利用我国1953--2006年的时间序列数据,检验与资本融合在一起的技术进步（资本体现式技术进步）、全要素生产率、产业结构以及能源价格对我国能源效率的影响,结果发现,全要素生产率对能源效率的影响最大,其次是产业结构,而资本体现式技术进步与能源价格对能源效率的影响较小。因此,我国要实现节能降耗必须提高全要素生产率和优化产业结构。     

改革开放以来我国能源效率影响因素的实证研究

基于DEA方法的测算结果表明,改革开放以来我国能源效率在不断提高。能源价格、经济开放程度和城镇化发展水平对能源效率有正向作用,产业结构的优化也有助于提升能源效率,技术进步对能源效率的影响为负。在能源结构、产业化发展、技术水平以及与国际相比较方面,我国能源效率都比较低,因而需要加强新能源开发和利用,调整和优化能源结构;需要进一步调整和优化产业结构;加强能源研发投入,提升技术水平,并加强能源国际合作。     

从广义虚拟经济角度对能源价格改革的建议

能源在一国经济发展中的战略地位至关重要。推进能源价格改革是提高能源经济效率的关键,当前完善市场价格机制成为能源价格改革的主导方向。基于广义虚拟经济视角,对新时期我国能源价格改革的现状与问题进行了分析,并提出若干建议。建议包括:树立能源价格改革的人本价值观,重视能源虚拟价值属性,加快能源价格改革进程,完善能源价格的市场形成机制,能源价格构成要补偿虚拟成本以及推进能源虚拟金融市场体系建设等。     

基于分位数回归的我国能源效率影响因素动态研究

利用1978～2010年样本数据,通过分位数回归模型详细研究了各因素对能源效率在不同分位点上的影响变化。研究发现,能源价格对能源效率的影响随着能源效率的提高呈U型分布;产业结构的变动只有在能源效率较低时才会对其产生明显的影响作用;能源效率低下时,技术进步会促进能源效率的提高,而能源效率较高时,技术进步存在"回弹效应";城市化水平的提高有利于能源效率的提高,并且这种作用随着能源效率的提高而不断增强。最后,根据实证分析的结果给出了相关建议。     

中国农业部门生产效率的重新估计——基于非线性平滑转换模型的经验分析

本文应用非线性平滑转换模型对中国农业部门1978-2005年间的生产效率进行了重新估计。研究结果表明中国农业部门生产效率存在明显的非线性调整特征,且生产效率由高机制到低机制之间的非线性平滑转换可由指数转换函数模型描述。进一步的分析发现,中国农业部门的生产效率始终保持在一个较高的水平上,其波动幅度在88%～100%之间,估计得到的平均生产效率约为理想状态时的93.8%。为了进一步提高生产效率,要求政府继续推动农业科技发展,加强土地的集约化经营并提高农业部门劳动者素质。     

能源价格机制改革势在必行

我国能源价格机制调整的内在因素是未来几年能源需求将会增加,人均能源资源拥有量较低,能源消费的环境压力较大,因此,我们应对能源价格进行调整,要积极推进成品油价格机制改革和电力价格改革。改革的主要内容是理顺成品油价格、天然气价格、电力价格和可再生资源价格,改革的方向是实现市场定价,改革的最终目标是提高能源的使用效率,政府在推进市场定价中要发挥对价格的调节作用,调节的原则是要注重维护经济和社会的稳定,要体现能源的稀缺性。     

我国能源消费存在的主要问题及对策分析

本文分析了我国能源消费具有消费结构以煤炭为主、能源价格改革滞后和能源金融市场发展不足的特点,能源消费存在对环境污染严重、能源利用效率较低和能源技术创新不足的问题.文章最后提出了提高能源使用效率、鼓励能源技术创新的途径和对策.     

Productivity and misallocation of energy resources: Evidence from Korea’s manufacturing Sector

This paper analyzes the role of allocative efficiency of energy resources with respect to total factor productivity (TFP) in the Korean manufacturing sector. Using firm-level data for Korea, we extend the framework of Hsieh and Klenow (2009) to measure allocative inefficiency of energy markets as a function of energy price distortions. Our results indicate that between the years 2000 and 2014, intra-industry misallocation has increased. With respect to energy resources, this is truer in the low-oil-price periods than in other periods. An improvement in allocative efficiency could be attained by equalizing total factor revenue productivity across firms within an industry. In reallocating capital, labor, and energy resources, hypothetical TFP increases of 51.3 % and 71.7 % above actual levels in 2000 and 2014, respectively, could have been achieved. The evolution of firm productivity has been shaped by energy (electricity and fuel) market distortion and capital market distortion. Our evidence suggests that government (energy) price intervention is likely to have played an important role in productivity loss and in allocative inefficiency observed in energy markets.     

Understanding the role of economic transition in enlarging energy price elasticity

Evidence of energy price elasticity would allow for a better understanding of economic, distributional and environmental consequences of varying energy prices. We document the previously unnoticed causal relationship between energy price elasticity and economic transition by modelling energy price elasticity as endogenous to the economic system. The central message is that economic transition promotes incentives and flexibility of micro‐units to sufficiently use price signals. Three potential mechanisms are proposed and tested for economic transition affecting the energy price elasticity. The findings provide implications for energy price policies because it reveals how energy consumers respond to energy price changes alongside economic transition.     

社会-技术变迁驱动能源转型研究框架与述评

在能源短缺和生态环境恶化的压力下,各国都在寻找能源转型的有效途径,但在如何有效指导能源转型实践方面还缺乏成熟的理论。在文献梳理的基础上,以社会-技术变迁理论为研究视角,将社会-技术变迁理论框架与能源转型实践活动相结合,提出社会-技术变迁驱动能源转型的“影响因素-动力机制-治理政策”研究框架,并对这一研究领域的潜在问题进行分析,强调要识别社会-技术变迁促进能源转型的动力因子,确定中国能源转型的各级参与者,进而提出能源转型治理政策。     

基于MRCI的中国能源消费变动及驱动因素分析

如何减缓能源消费的过快增长是应对能源安全和气候变化的重要课题。通过对投入产出分析原理和无残差的完全结构分解法（MRCI）量化分析发现,产出规模效应和生产结构效应对中国能源消费增长起到主导作用,是主要驱动因素,而中国能源强度效应能有效抑制中国能源消费的增长;人口规模效应和人均生活能耗效应对中国能源消费增长的影响相对较小,但也有一定的促进作用。因此,依靠技术创新、提高能源使用效率,控制人口增长、引导居民向低能耗方向发展有利于减少中国能源消费水平。     

A model of technological breakthrough in the renewable energy sector

Models with induced technological change in the energy sector often predict a gradual expansion of renewable energies, and a substantial share of fossil fuels remaining in the energy mix through the end of our century. However, there are historical examples where new products or technologies expanded rapidly and achieved a high output in a relatively short period of time. This paper explores the possibility of a ‘technological breakthrough’ in the renewable energy sector, using a partial equilibrium model of energy generation with endogenous R&D. Our results indicate, that due to increasing returns-to-scale, a multiplicity of equilibria can arise. In the model, two stable states can coexist, one characterized by a lower and one by higher supply of renewable energy. The transition from the low-output to the high-output equilibrium is characterized by a discontinuous rise in R&D activity and capacity investments in the renewable energy sector. The transition can be triggered by a rise in world energy demand, by a drop in the supply of fossil fuels, or by policy intervention. Under market conditions, the transition occurs later than in the social optimum. Hence, we identify a market failure related to path-dependence and technological lock-in, that can justify a strong policy intervention initially. Paradoxically, well-intended energy-saving policies can actually lead to higher emissions, as they reduce the incentives to invest in renewable energies by having a cushioning effect on the energy price. Hence, these policies should be supplemented by other instruments that restore the incentives to invest in renewable energies. Finally, we discuss the influence of monopoly power in the market for innovations. We show that market power can alleviate the problem of technological lock-in, but creates a new market failure that reduces static efficiency.     

The driving forces of the change in China's energy intensity: An empirical research using DEA-Malmquist and spatial panel estimations

Energy shortage and environmental degradation have become significant hurdles for China's sustainable development nowadays. One of the most efficient and effective ways to ease energy shortage is to sufficiently reduce energy intensity. In the extant literature on the influential factors of China's energy intensity, the regional imbalance and spatial spillover effects were basically ignored, which may yield to biased and unreasonable results. As a result, in this paper, the driving forces of China's provincial energy intensity were for the first time investigated by combining the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-Malmquist and spatial panel approaches for the period between 2000 and 2014. The results indicate that technological progress plays a dominant role in decreasing China's overall energy intensity. In both the Eastern and Central regions, the technological progress and its components can decrease energy intensity, while this effect doesnot significantly exist in the Western region. Rapid industrialization should be responsible for China's currently high energy intensity, while energy price hiking is conducive to the decrease in energy intensity. Moreover, there is also clear evidence that these factors influence on energy intensity partly through the spatial spillover effects.     

On price convergence in Eurozone

We investigate price level convergence with Germany in eleven countries belonging to the Eurozone between January 1970 and July 2011. Relying on smooth transition regression models, we show that the price convergence process is nonlinear, depending on the size of the price differential: for most countries, price convergence occurs only when price differentials with Germany exceed a certain threshold. Moreover, our findings put forward some heterogeneity across the Eurozone members in terms of price convergence speed, that can be explained by the evolution of price-competitiveness, rigidities in labor markets, but also by specialization patterns.     

The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions

This paper examines the impacts of climate fluctuations on carbon emissions using monthly models of US energy demand. The econometric analysis estimates price, income, and weather elasticities of short-run energy demand. Our model simulations suggest that warmer climate conditions in the US since 1982 slightly reduced carbon emissions in the US. Lower energy use associated with reduced heating requirements offsets higher fuel consumption to meet increased air-conditioning needs. The analysis also suggests that climate change policies should allow some variance in carbon emissions due to short-term weather variations.     

The forward pricing function of industrial metal futures – evidence from cointegration and smooth transition regression analysis

The prices of internationally traded metals have experienced wild swings and increased volatility in recent years. The relationship between spot and futures prices is an important topic in this context, as the current period’s price of a futures contract should be an unbiased estimator of next period’s spot price under the joint assumption of risk neutrality and rationality. Taking as a basis data from the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index, which uses metals traded on the London Metal Exchange and US exchanges, this study adopts nonlinear smooth transition models to analyze whether the forward spread is a leading indicator of future spot price movements. Our findings suggest that such a price discovery function can in most cases only be identified in periods of low volatility or small previous spreads. Moreover, the underlying dynamics are captured best by the use of a logistic transition function.