Productivity Growth and Organizational Learning

A new specification of the sources of productivity growth is offered. Motivated by the lack of innovation and technology adoption in backward economies, a third channel of growth related to organizational structure, work ethics, and discipline in the production process (for simplicity called organizational learning) is suggested. The suggested specification generates new insights about the dominating source of growth during the development process: organizational learning in backward economies, technology adoption in middle‐income economies, and innovation in developed economies. This adds to the current understanding of development as a transition from technology adoption to innovation. Numerical simulations of the Thai catch‐up process since 1965 illustrate the importance of organizational learning. A counterfactual experiment shows how investments in secondary education contribute to the move from organizational learning to adoption of more advanced foreign technology.     

The Dynamic Effects of the US Productivity Boom on Australia*

How has the USA's ‘new economy’ productivity boom affected Australia? We consider this question using a dynamic multisector growth model of the Australian and US economies. We find that productivity growth in the US durables sector generates small but important gains to Australia. We find that the transmission of growth is generated through increased export demand for agriculture. Consequently, the USA's productivity growth tends to favour Australia's traditional export sectors. Likewise, it increases the relative demand for less skilled labour in Australia and reduces the demand for more skilled labour and higher education.     

The effect of education subsidies on regional economic growth and disparities in China

This paper examines the impact of education subsidies on regional economic growth and the disparities between two Chinese regions, Jiangsu and Liaoning, by simulating their economies in a six-period overlapping generations model in which individuals decide their length of education. This study estimates the long-run growth rates, that is, the steady growth paths of the regional economies based on current education subsidies, and explores their effect on human capital accumulation, namely in terms of economic growth while considering the increase in education subsidies. Because greater government subsidies in education induce individuals to invest in human capital, both regions achieve higher economic growth. Moreover, because of the large differences in productivity between the regions, the growth gap widens with evenly raised education subsidy rates.     

A Fourier analysis of the US dairy industry

Measurement of economies of scale and scope is particularly important for predicting growth and product diversification. However, estimates are useful only to the extent the underlying production technology is modelled accurately. This study measures economies of scale and scope in the rapidly changing US dairy industry with a Fourier flexible cost function, which provides a global approximation of the unknown function. We use the high quality national Agricultural and Resource Management Survey (ARMS) survey data. We find economies of scale at most firm sizes and persistent economies of scope across firm sizes in this industry, which is counter to estimates from two Diewert‐flexible functional forms.     

A Tacit Monetary Policy of the Gulf Countries: Is There a Remittances Channel?

The strong economic ties between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies and the USA are manifested in three ways: currency peg, coupling of monetary policy, and the adoption of the US dollar as the trading currency for oil. This paper examines how these dynamics result in a misalignment of the US monetary policy with the business cycles of the GCC economies. The study shows how the staggering amount of remittances outflow of the GCC economies plays a stabilizing role as a tacit monetary policy tool. Incorporating remittances in the money‐demand equation results in a more robust model than otherwise. We further find that the effect of the Federal Funds rate on money demand in these countries diminishes in significance during the period of oil boom between 2002 and 2009. However, the transmission effect of the recession periods in the USA into the demand for money in the GCC countries is not statistically significant.     

Population Growth, Technological Adoption, and Economic Outcomes in the Information Era

In this paper we argue that population growth, through its interaction with recent technological and organizational developments, may account for many cross-country differences in economic outcomes observed among industrialized countries over the past 20 years. In particular, our model illustrates how a large decrease in the price of information technology can create a comparative advantage for high population growth economies to jump ahead in the adoption of computer- and skill-intensive modes of production. They do this as a means of countering their relative scarcity of physical capital. The predictions of the model are that, over the span of the information revolution, industrial countries with higher population growth rates will experience a more pronounced adoption of new technology, a better performance in terms of increased employment rates, a poorer performance in terms of wage growth for less skilled workers, a larger increase in the service sector, and a larger increase in the returns to education. We provide preliminary evidence in support of the theory based on an examination of broad wage movements, employment changes, and computer adoption patterns for a set of OECD countries. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: O33, J31, J11.     

Mark-ups, economies of scale and the role of knowledge spillovers in OECD industries

Using R&D-based models of economic growth as a foundation, this paper argues that market-driven knowledge creation is necessarily linked as an engine of productivity growth to economies of scale and market-power. A cost function and factor demand model is applied to a cross-country industry data set to study market-power, economies of scale and the role of knowledge in an integrated approach. Empirical results reveal the presence of market-power and economies of scale in all of the industries investigated. R&D and spillovers explain some of the productivity growth observed. Spillovers are identified as an external source of economies of scale.     

Sources of productivity growth: an empirical analysis with German sectoral data

Many theoretical analyses of the sources of economic growth focus on knowledge spillovers and scale economies to explain growth endogenously. The contribution of this paper is to shed some light on these arguments by an empirical investigation based on a production function framework. Sectoral production functions are estimated with annual German data of 51 sectors from 1960–90. The estimates reveal that both a pure Solow growth model and a Solow model augmented with human capital cannot account for the observed productivity increases. The model should be extended by allowing for inter-industry spillovers and scale economies at the aggregate level, as well as for scale economies associated with human capital at the sectoral level. The business cycle affects observed productivity changes in the short run and in the long run.     

INFLATION TARGETING AND THE ECONOMY: LESSONS FROM CANADA'S FIRST DECADE

Inflation targeting has become the centerpiece of the monetary policy framework in a number of industrial countries and emerging economies. The first part of this article examines the Canadian experience with inflation targeting since its introduction in early 1991 and various issues that require resolution in establishing such a framework. It also examines the way inflation targets deal with demand, price, and productivity shocks. The second part focuses on Canada's economic performance during the 1990s. Factors other than monetary policy - most notably private sector restructuring and the fiscal situation in the first half of the decade - played an important role in the sluggishness of the recovery from the recession of 1990–91. Trend growth in Canada during the 1990s was lower than in earlier periods and than U.S. trend growth over the same period. The article examines the role of such factors as productivity growth and participation rates in explaining the differences. I conclude that a good monetary policy is necessary but not sufficient for good economic outcomes.     

Modeling the diffusion of general purpose technologies in an evolutionary multi-sector framework

General purpose technologies (GPTs) are characterized by their pervasive use in the economy. The introduction of a new GPT (product innovation) as well as increasing productivity within a GPT-sector (as a consequence of process innovations) affect the economy in several ways. First, a new GPT offers the opportunity to produce goods by means of cheaper processes; secondly, technical change within the GPT sector influences productivity gains in related sectors. Also social consequences such as changing wage share, technical unemployment and transitional wage inequality can be observed. Finally, the emergence of a GPT often coincides with output decline, preceding economic growth. This paper introduces a multi-sector diffusion model to study these effects by combining classical economics and replicator-dynamics. Empirical evidence is given by the information and communication technology sector in Denmark and its impact on the economic structure from 1966 to 2007.     

Technical change and wage premiums amongst skilled labour: Evidence from the economic transition

I present reduced-form and structural evidence that the reorganization of the Russian economy in the post-transitional period increased the demand on law and business graduates. This demand shock provides a novel unified explanation of the Russian wage structure for 1985–2015. I then show that this shock is a common feature of all transitional economies, and it contributed to the transformational recession. The demand behaviour is identified with a new skill-biased technical change model of demand for skills with three production inputs (high school graduates and bachelor-level educations with two majors), showing that a technology shift that favours a particular skill might emerge within the skilled group rather than between skilled and unskilled. This is relevant because similar shifts (e.g., data scientists vs. liberal arts) emerge today in the frontier economies that adopt new general-purpose technologies (e.g., machine learning). Thus, this paper informs policymakers today on tools to counteract a potential drop in economic equality and performance that result from this adoption. Lastly, because of similarities between the mechanics of the transition and the 2022 sanctions to discourage Russia's war effort, my results highlight the importance of additional sanctions against the education system to prevent the regime's structural adaptation and preservation.     

总需求、国际贸易与我国省际生产率变化——基于省际面板数据的研究

全要素生产率的提高是促进经济持续增长的重要原因,对生产率的研究,主要是从供给方面展开的,本文试图从需求角度研究全要素生产率变动的原因。理论上看,总需求通过影响技术创新、技术选择、规模经济效益和要素的使用效率等途径引起生产率的变化,国际贸易则通过促进分工深化、产生技术溢出等促进生产率的提高。然后,本文采用数据包络分析方法测算了中国省际全要素生产率变化,并将其分解为技术效率的变化和技术进步。结果发现中国改革开放以来全要素生产率增长主要是技术进步的结果,技术效率的作用很小。在测算和分解的基础上,利用省际面板数据,就总需求和国际贸易对生产率增长的影响作了实证分析,发现最终消费和资本形成对技术进步和全要素生产率的提高作用显著,出口对生产率增长的作用不显著,进口显著地促进了省际全要素生产率增长和技术进步。     

Determinants of innovation behaviour and investment estimates for west-german manufacturing firms

In this paper, the determinants of innovation behaviour and investment are explored with a large micro-data panel from West-German manufacturing firms. The estimates are discussed within a microeconomic model with monopolistic competition, demand uncertainty and a delayed adjustment of capacities and the production technology. The estimates reveal positive firm-size effects which hint towards scale economies associated with innovations. Market power promotes innovations but not investment, and exporters innovate more but exhibit less investment expenditures. Finally, excess demand promotes innovations. This indicates a complementarity of innovations and investment and hints towards permanent productivity effects of temporary demand shocks.     

Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand,scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil

This article focuses on a growth model in which (unlike other models) low (high) export demand elasticities and the fact that developing countries are importers of capital goods help explaining the slow (high) growth of these countries in the transition and in the steady state. The question arises whether export demand elasticities are low or high. For answering this question, export demand elasticities for the case of Brazil are obtained by estimation of the model. As a by-product of estimating the model, we obtain estimates for total-factor productivity growth and for scale economies. Based on the results from estimation we calculate steady-state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as dynamic steady-state gains from trade. The model and the results are discussed in regard to several strands of literature.     

中国全要素生产率的测算与解释:1979—2009年

本文首先利用索洛残差法对改革开放以来中国全要素生产率进行了估算,随后从制度变迁、自主创新和技术引进三个方面,对改革开放以来中国全要素生产率变动的原因进行定量考察。分析表明:(1)技术引进是改革开放以来中国全要素生产率变化的主要原因。(2)1994年以后中国制度变迁对经济增长的作用才从推动资本、劳动增长转到推动全要素生产率的增长上来。(3)虽然改革开放以来R&D经费投入增长迅速,但这些R&D投入只是大大增加了中国技术知识存量,并没有有效地转化为全要素生产率的提高。     

Automation,markets, and scale: can flexible niching modernize US manufacturing

The nimble use of programmable automation to permit small- and medium-sized manufacturing firms, individually and in concert, to create and respond to growing ‘niche’ markets has been held up as a key to the revitaization of mature industrial regions and, by extension, developed national market economies. Are formerly mass markets indeed becoming more fragmented, more ‘nichified’? If so, is the trend a structural, fundamental one, reflecting changing consumer tastes and/or the eclipse of scale economies as determinants of industrial structure? Or is the apparent success of niche-focused producers a corollary of growing income inequality and its impact on the structure of consumption? As for the supply side of the phenomenon, are small- and medium-sized firms closing their productivity gap with large, mass producers? Or is ‘nimble niching’ instead part of a US productivity problem rooted in excessive industrial dualism? Can one imagine a progressive type of dualism, in which specialization rather than wage differentials drives the division of tasks among different kinds of firms? If so, can and should public policy help such a regime to emerge?     

Measuring productivity in an imperfect world

Most measures of multifactor productivity (MFP) assume constant returns to scale and perfect competition. Using a general aggregate production function together with duality theory and allowing for the possibilities of disequilibrium, markups and economies of scale, the study derives a more generalized MFP measure. The model was used to assess the economic performance in US manufacturing for the 1949 to 1988 period. The results suggest that scale and markups have substantial power in explaining MFP growth for all periods and that half of the measured MFP growth (as measured within the conventional framework) comes from biases due to scale economies, market power, and interaction effects.     

Stagnation or transformation of a dual economy through endogenous productivity growth

A growth model is developed for an open dual economy. The economyexpands owing to a higher growth rate of labour productivityin the modern sector through the Kaldor–Verdoorn channeland higher effective demand through a Keynesian channel. Themodel incorporates a retardation mechanism affecting the slopesof productivity and output growth schedules as labour surplusand economies of scale diminish. A wage-led or profit-led regimeand initial conditions may give rise to: de-industrializationin terms of both output and employment; a growth trap sustaininga situation of structural heterogeneity; or sustainable employmentand adequate output and productivity growth.     

全球化时代的中国经济及其世界性影响

全球化进程决定了中国经济的高度开放,造就了双重资本积累模式,即内资主导的工业化城市化积累和外资主导的全球低端制造平台积累.这一模式加速了中国经济增长,同时削弱了经济自主.反过来,中国对世界经济造成了多方面影响,包括改变劳资利益格局,推动各国产业重组,改变金融市场结构,加强中美金融依赖等,这些影响随着中国的经济增长和结构升级将日趋显著.因此,中国必须立足内需实现可持续增长,并依靠技术创新来控制资源和环境成本.     

Innovation,Diffusion and Cumulative Causation: Changes in the Spanish Growth Regime, 1960–2001

This article presents a model of macroeconomic growth that combines in a single formalization two complementary views on innovation and economic growth, the technology‐gap approach and the Kaldorian theory of cumulative causation. The model suggests that what matters for economic growth in the long run is the existence of a good match between the patterns of technological change, income distribution and demand growth. The model is estimated for the Spanish economy during the period 1960–2001, and the econometric results show that important changes have happened in its growth regime over time. Since the 1980s, innovation and diffusion of new technologies provide a greater stimulus to productivity growth, but the technology push on the supply‐side is not sustained by the prevailing patterns of income distribution and demand growth.