基于误差修正模型的我国城乡居民消费差异研究

文章基于消费函数和误差修正模型,分别建立了我国农村和城镇居民消费的协整方程和误差修正模型,结果发现农村居民和城镇居民各自的收入和消费存在长期协整关系,并且这种关系由于体制改革和制度创新而发生了结构性变化。农村居民的边际消费倾向较高,收入不足才是农民消费需求不足的根源,因此扩大农民消费需求的政策着眼点应当放在促进农民增收、提高农民收入水平方面。对于城镇居民来说,其消费需求疲软主要是边际消费倾向较低造成的,要通过体制改革和制度创新提高城镇居民边际消费倾向以刺激城镇居民消费需求。     

影响中国城镇居民边际消费倾向的因素分析

增加居民消费支出是促进经济增长的源泉之一 ,城镇居民消费水平的高低不仅取决于收入的多少 ,还取决于边际消费倾向的大小。文章主要分析了影响城镇居民边际消费倾向的因素 ,认为收入水平的差距、物价水平的高低 ,消费信贷的发展以及预防性储蓄动机四个因素相互作用 ,共同影响我国城镇居民边际消费倾向。     

外生性因素作用下城镇居民投资行为研究

本文基于城镇居民的经济人、人性不耐及追求资产效用最大化的假定，重点分析影响城镇居民投资行为的金融体制、社会保障制度及分配制度等外生性因素及其作用机理，并进一步通过设计平均消费倾向与平均投资倾向、边际消费倾向与边际投资倾向、平均安全投资倾向平均风险投资倾向、边际安全投资倾向与边际风险投资倾向等几组指标，利用武汉市历年来有关数据资料，对外生性因素作用下的城镇居民投资行为进行实证研究。     

四川省城镇居民消费倾向实证研究——基于凯恩斯的消费函数的边际消费倾向递减的研究

一、前言 随着人民生活水平的不断提高,收入与消费的关系被众多学者研究,但一般集中在全国的城镇边际消费倾向或城乡差距上且以分析我国的中东部居多.本文就两部最大省份四川省城镇居民的收人消费情况进行分析,以此验证凯恩斯的边际消费倾向递减规律在中国西部相对贫困的地区的适用性.     

城乡居民消费倾向的比较

从１９９８年以来 ,我国政府竭尽全力 ,刺激消费以拉动内需 ,促进经济增长 ,尽管已产生了一定的效果 ,但总起来看作用并不十分显著 ,笔者认为其原因之一就是由于这些政策主要是围绕城镇居民制定的 ,而我国现阶段城镇居民消费倾向较低 ,储蓄倾向较高 ,而农村居民消费倾向较高 ,但没有具体措施来引导、刺激农村居民消费 ,所以消费市场迟迟不能启动。一、城镇居民消费倾向１ 消费结构升级导致较低的消费倾向。①城镇居民家庭耐用消费品已基本拥有。彩电、冰箱等家用电器已趋向饱和 ,消费增长空间不大。②旧的消费需求已基本满足 ,新的消费需求…     

居民边际消费倾向的城乡比较——以四川省为例

消费需求是扩大内需、促避经济持续增长的根本动力。研究表明,城镇与农村居民的收入和消费之间具有长期的协整性,但城乡的协整关系不同。城乡居民的边际消费倾向表现出显著的差异性：城镇居民长期平均的边际消费倾向较稳定,而农村居民的边际消费倾向则有较大交动。因此,应根据城乡居民的消费特征,采取增加低收入阶层的收入,培育新的消费点,完善农村社会保障等措施。     

消费倾向和投资拉动经济

近年来,我国宏观经济出现“五降两升”的局面,即居民消费倾向下降、资本边际效率下降、利率下降、物价指数下降、经济增长速度下降和居民储蓄率上升、失业率上升,表现为市场疲软,有效需求不足,通过加大投资拉动经济的效应不明显等。这些经济现象值得认真研究与思考。本文着重就消费倾向下降和投资拉动经济问题做一点分析。 一、消费倾向明显下降 所谓消费倾向,指的是一定时期内收入中消费所占比例,即 （ＡＰＣ）＝ｃ／ｙ……（１） 式中（ＡＰＣ）表示消费倾向、Ｃ表示消费、Ｙ表示收入。 从城镇居民消费倾向变化情况来看（参看表１…     

持久收入假说与我国城镇居民消费——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

运用基于持久收入和暂时收入的两种分解方法的省际面板模型检验持久收入假说的三个假设.结果发现,我国城镇居民消费与持久收入和暂时收入均存在显著的相关关系,暂时收入的边际消费倾向不为零;就诸省份而言,暂时收入的边际消费倾向不同.进一步探讨了持久收入假说不能完全解释我国城镇居民消费行为的原因."λ假说"检验表明,城镇居民消费对当期收入过度敏感,其呈现理性化趋势.     

中国农村居民消费地区差异的实证分析

文章按经济与地域差异将中国农村居民分为东部、中部和西部三个部分。通过运用传统的计量经济模型以及PanelDate模型 ,对其在边际消费倾向、消费敏感度以及消费支出的地区差异等方面进行了实证研究与比较分析 ,得出一些相关的结论与启示 ,以更好地促进农村经济的发展 ,同时使得我国经济全面协调地发展。     

黑龙江省城镇居民人均收入与消费的相关分析

在分析黑龙江省人均收入与消费的基础上,利用相关数据,构建误差修正模型,实证分析了1978—2008年期间黑龙江省城镇居民的边际消费倾向以及人均收入与消费之间的协整关系。结果表明,随着时间的推移,边际消费倾向呈不规则变动,短期内,黑龙江省的城镇居民倾向于储蓄,但从长期看,人均收入与人均消费之间存在共同增长的稳定关系,黑龙江省城镇居民收入与消费之间的长期均衡机制对消费的变化具有制约作用。     

Estimating the marginal propensity to consume using the distributions of income,consumption, and wealth

Studies of economic inequality almost always separately examine income, consumption, and wealth inequality, and hence, miss the important synergy amongst the three measures explicit in the life-cycle budget constraint. These joint distributions, however, are important in evaluating macroeconomic impacts of changes in income because the response may differ across the wealth distribution. This heterogeneity in the response to income changes can have significant impact on the effectiveness of government fiscal policy. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999–2013, we examine how the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) differs across the wealth distribution. We find that the MPC is lower at higher wealth quintiles, indicating that low wealth households cannot smooth consumption as much as other households. This implies that increasing wealth inequality likely reduces aggregate consumption, which, in turn, could limit economic growth.     

Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece

This paper investigates the effects of discretionary fiscal policy changes on economic activity and its subcomponents in Greece in the period 2000–2011. Changes in government spending and net taxes have Keynesian effects. An increase in government consumption has the most pronounced positive effects on output growth, private consumption and non-residential investment, while it reduces residential investment. Cuts in the public investment programme crowd in private investment, but are associated negatively with the net exports ratio. Both indirect and direct tax hikes lower private consumption, private investment and output growth. However, higher direct taxes by lowering disposable income they reduce import demand, thus, improving the trade balance.     

以人为本的发展观及其理论和实践意义

以人为本的发展观的基本要求是富裕人民。富裕人民不仅涉及加快经济增长问题,还涉及经济增长成果的分配问题。以人为本的发展观并不否认收入差距,但要求这种收入差距建立在公平正义的基础上。解决收入差距的重点在于公平权利的实现,特别要关注贫困家庭的基本需要。人力资源作为发展的第一资源,提出了人的现代化的要求。人的现代化包括人的素质现代化,人的身体素质、文化素质和道德素质达到现代化水准。发展观转到以人为本,就要高度重视消费力概念。经济增长由投资需求拉动转向消费需求拉动反映了向以人为本发展观的转变。     

MISUSE AND USE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AS A WELFARE INDICATOR: SELECTED ANALYTICAL AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES

Few economic relationships have been as scrutinized as that between SNA measures of national product, investment and consumption, and welfare. The present paper contrasts SNA economic production and welfare to total production and welfare within the Walrasian framework of usefulness and costliness. An evaluation of deductions and additions to the SNA made by Nordhaus-Tobin, Zolotas, Richard and Nancy Ruggles, Kendrick, Eisner and Jorgenson-Fraumeni, in their research on extended product and income accounts and improved indicators of welfare reveals numerous unresolved analytical and measurement issues; and reaffirms the usefulness of the SNA as a fundamental, initial, welfare indicator.     

收入不平等对经济增长影响的实证研究

采用联立方程分析方法,实证分析了收入不平等对经济增长影响的三种机制,探讨了收入不平等如何通过影响物质资本投资、人力资本投资和居民消费来作用于经济增长。结果表明,从长期看收入不平等的扩大会刺激物质资本投资,但不利于人力资本投资和居民消费增长,收入不平等对经济增长的长期影响为负。因此,从经济发展的角度政府不应容忍收入不平等的过分扩大。     

Change in income distribution and aggregate spending: constraints on full-employment?

During the 1980s, rising income inequality in the UK resulted partly from market conditions, and partly from supply-side policies that reduced social security benefits and income supports for low-wage earners. Greater Inequality, plus low levels of investment spending (relative to consumption)hinder the ability of demand management to raise the level of output and employment in the UK economy. Higher income earners have higher import propensities. Consequently, at any stage of the economic cycle, the trade dificit is now larger than it was before 1980. Increases in demand leak into a demand for imports, further reducing the incentive to invest. The paper argues for lower interest rates to encourage investment, and a fiscal policy that redistributes income towards those with lower incomes to solve these problems.     

储蓄倾向差异、要素收入分配 和我国产业结构升级*

高储蓄率、要素收入分配不平等和产业结构升级是我国经济增长过程中三个典型事实。本文构建一个非平衡增长模型表明这三者是一个自洽的系统,存在相互制约和矫正关系。在我国劳动收入和资本收入的储蓄倾向不同与劳动收入占比较低的背景下,高储蓄会出现两个相反地影响产业结构的动力。一方面,高储蓄转化的高投资更多体现为工业品,阻碍了服务业发展,同时,高储蓄导致的低消费使得恩格尔效应无法发挥作用,阻碍了产业结构升级;另一方面,高储蓄导致高投资,推动了资本深化,这又促进了产业结构升级。产业结构变迁又反过来影响社会储蓄率和要素收入分配。文章证明这个系统存在一个广义平衡增长路径。     

INTERNATIONAL TRANSFERS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

This paper examines the appropriate treatment of international transfers in the national accounts. It argues that the appropriate treatment differs, depending upon the use to be made of the accounts. The treatment recommended in the SNA is appropriate for expenditure behavior analysis, with its emphasis on total disposable income on the one hand, and its allocation between consumption and saving on the other. For economic performance analysis, however, the primary focus of interest is the excess, if any, of aggregate resource use over the GNP, i.e., the extent to which the combined level of consumption and investment is sustained out of own production or is dependent on unrequited capital inflow. It is essential for this purpose that the measure of capital inflow include all international transfers regardless of their economic destination.     

我国经济系统的结构因素与 经济增长的结构依赖

本文在运用系统工程原理分析各种结构的相互联系和作用关系的基础上,根据Cobb Douglas生产函数构建经济增长的结构依赖模型,并以我国各省市(区)作为实证对象,分析了2006年、2009年以及两阶段过程中各主要结构因素与我国经济增长关联关系,揭示了中国经济增长过程对各结构的依赖性。研究结果表明,产业结构、国内生产总值结构和国内生产总值项目结构是我国经济系统中的主要结构因素;我国当前产业结构没有对经济增长起到支撑作用,必须继续推进产业结构升级;提高消费率、劳动报酬率在促进产业结构优化同时,对我国经济增长有显著的促进作用;加强我国第三产业投资力度,能够促进经济增长;我国调结构的宏观政策初见成效。     

Legal Institutions, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and Economic Development

Poor countries have lower PPP-adjusted investment rates and face higher relative prices of investment goods. It has been suggested that this happens either because these countries have a relatively lower TFP in industries producing capital goods or because they are subject to greater investment distortions. This paper provides a micro-foundation for the cross-country dispersion in investment distortions. We first document that firms producing capital goods face a higher level of idiosyncratic risk than their counterparts producing consumption goods. In a model of capital accumulation where the protection of investors' rights is incomplete, this difference in risk induces a wedge between the returns on investment in the two sectors. The wedge is bigger, the poorer the investor protection. In turn, this implies that countries endowed with weaker institutions face higher relative prices of investment goods, invest a lower fraction of their income, and end up being poorer. We find that our mechanism may be quantitatively important.