从全要素生产率增长看经济增长方式的变化

中国全要素生产率增长的变化主要经历了三个阶段.20世纪80年代的波动增长期,90年代的稳定发展期和2000年以后的下降恢复期.就各要素对经济增长的贡献来说,资本投入的贡献是推动中国经济增长的主要动力,平均占到46.90%;劳动投入的贡献较为稳定,但水平相对较低,只有17.36%;全要素生产率的贡献平均维持在35.75%的水平.因此,从整体来看,中国经济增长的方式仍然没有摆脱效率较低的粗放型增长,但其趋势是向着集约型增长发展.     

基于三维空间模型的中国经济持续增长研究

改革开放以来,我国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就。然而,这三十多年的经济增长主要依靠投资推动的。随着时间的推移,这种增长模式会导致投资效率低下和产能过剩,难以继续支撑我国未来经济的持续增长。本文构建了由资本投入、劳动投入和全要素生产率构成的三维空间模型,并加以分析。在此基础上,提出了增加资本投入数量、提高资本投资效率,提升劳动者素质和提高全要素生产率是我国经济持续增长的对策。     

全要素生产率对中国地区经济增长与波动的影响

本文在重新估算1978～2011年中国30个省区市资本、劳动与实际产出数据的基础上,采用了非参数的Malmquist生产率指数法测算了各省区市各年度全要素生产率水平、各年度资本与劳动要素份额等变量及其变化情况,并测算了改革开放以来中国经济各阶段TFP增长及其子项目对实际经济增长的贡献、TFP增长率与潜在增长率及经济波动的相关性。研究发现,1979～2011年期间,对全要素生产率增长起主要作用的是技术进步。而技术效率的恶化对全要素生产率增长起着抑制作用,技术进步是各地区全要素生产率增长的主要支撑力量,中、西部相对东部地区的技术效率相对东部地区的持续恶化,是导致中、西部与东部的全要素生产率增长差距扩大的主要原因。随着资本对中国经济增长贡献的增大,许多地区的TFP增长率甚至绝对水平下降,特别是纯技术效率恶化,经济增长日益依靠不断扩大的资本投入。TFP增长的波动与GDP的波动高度相关。而TFP增长的长期趋势与资本增长率的长期趋互补,分别与GDP的长期趋势即潜在增长率保持一定程度的相关性。由于2008年以来,许多省份的潜在增长率开始下降,资本对经济增长的推动作用逐渐减弱,只有不断通过制度改革、技术研发等方式提升技术水平。优化资源配置,不断提升TFP增长水平,才能保持经济的长期持续增长。     

要素投入、技术进步与经济增长

要素投入、技术进步都是推动经济增长的重要因素,随着国际竞争的日益激烈,单纯依靠要素投入规模增加推动的经济增长难以保持持续性。运用OECD推介的增长核算方法,对我国1995-2007年的经济增长要素贡献进行估算,指出我国近年来的经济增长更大程度上是依靠投入要素的增加,需要转变经济增长方式,提高技术进步对经济增长的贡献。     

云南30年来经济增长因素分析

资本、劳动的投入和技术进步的推广应用是一个国家和地区经济增长的关键因素。本文通过运用柯布-道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数,对云南省1978～2007年经济增长中的资本、劳动投入与技术进步贡献进行了定量分析。结果显示,资本投入的增加是近3O年来云南经济增长最重要的源泉,而劳动力的增加对经济增长的拉动作用较小,技术进步对经济增长的促进作用也明显不足。表明目前云南经济增长方式仍以粗放型为主。最后,提出了加快云南经济增长方式转变的对策建议。     

中国经济增长动力结构变迁：2000—2019

厘清中国经济增长的动力结构,培育和壮大发展新动能,对构建新发展格局至关重要。基于行业视角的增长核算框架对中国经济增长的动力结构分析发现,考察期内中国国内生产总值年均增速达8.99%,三次产业的增长贡献占比分别为4.63%、46.32%和49.05%,其中又以制造业和生产性服务业为主。从要素贡献视角看,资本、劳动和全要素生产率的增长贡献占比分别为60.52%、15.17%和24.31%,资本（尤其是传统资本）驱动型增长模式面临资本投入和资本贡献双重下降的挑战,劳动投入质量提升有望提高劳动要素的增长贡献。伴随着新旧动能转换和数字化转型的快速推进,资本要素中新型资本规模不断扩大,数字经济与新经济相关行业产出快速增长但TFP增长相对有限。以创新驱动高质量发展,实现新时代中国经济发展动力变革,应进一步挖掘资本与劳动要素的增长潜力,大力提升各行业全要素生产率,巩固深化制造业和生产性服务业融合发展,持续壮大新经济产业规模。     

改革开放以来的中国劳动力投入增长及未来发展趋势

劳动力投入增长是改革开放以来中国经济快速发展的重要推动力量。本文对改革开放以来劳动投入的数量及质量变化趋势进行较全面的分析,发现综合考虑数量以及质量变化后,中国的劳动投入在1978-2012年间平均增长3.3%,其中数量变化对劳动投入增长的贡献为45%,质量变化对劳动投入增长的贡献超过了一半。展望"十三五",受人口转型影响,中国就业人口数量将总体趋于下降;而随着劳动力继续从第一产业向二、三产业转移,以及劳动力的受教育水平继续稳步提升,中国劳动力质量将继续提高,这将在很大程度上缓解就业人口数量下降的影响。     

试论转变经济增长方式

五中全会通过的《“九五”计划和2010年远景目标的建议》把实现经济增长方式转变，作为实现我国跨世纪宏伟目标的两个关键之一而突出强调，这既是从根本上解决当前经济生活中诸多矛盾的现实出发，又充分考虑到我国现代化建设进入新阶段和国际竞争新形势的要求，是保证我国经济和社会健康发展的重要指导方针。一、传统经济增长方式的特征与弊病按照经济增长理论，产出的规模取决于投入经济流程中资本、劳动等要素的数量与效率。单纯依靠投入要素数量增加实现的扩大再生产，被视为外延粗放型；在投入要素数量不变或增加的同时，依靠要素效率提…     

转变乡镇企业增长方式的思考——基于全要素生产率的乡镇企业增长因素分析

本文在现代经济学生产理论和经济增长因素分析方法的基础上,采用索洛增长核算框架,寻求乡镇企业增长的主要动力源泉,从而对乡镇企业的增长类型做出一个基本判断。研究表明：从各增长因素的贡献来看,资本和劳动投入对于乡镇企业增长的贡献将近70％,而全要素生产率增长的贡献作用相对较小,即乡镇企业产出增长动力主要来源于要素投入的增加,表明乡镇企业总体上呈现出一定的粗放经营特征。为推动乡镇企业持续、快速、平稳发展,应尽快实现其增长方式的转变。     

中国经济增长的源泉:1978—2007年

中国经济增长过于依赖资本投入。从长期来看,中国经济需要完成向集约型经济的转型。在2000年以后突出表现出来的出口导向增长模式很可能在未来难以为继。人力资本、科技进步和制度改革应该是未来中国经济保持健康持续增长所需要依赖的主要动力。     

劳动力转移过程中的高储蓄、高投资和中国经济增长

中国的转轨经济具有独特的增长模式,其典型特征就是持续的高储蓄率和高投资率。本文从劳动力转移的角度,解释了这种模式赖以产生的基础。我们认为,剩余劳动力由农业向工业(工业化)、由农村向城市(城市化)、由国有向非国有(市场化)的持续转移是我国经济能够长期、高速增长的关键,而高储蓄率和高投资率既是这种增长模式的必然结果,也是劳动力得以持续转移乃至这种增长模式得以维持的关键原因。为了防止效率低下的金融部门阻碍劳动力的转移,在开放经济条件下,引入纯粹金融意义的国际直接投资也就成为了必然。与此同时,本国金融部门也将持有一个规模逐步扩大的外汇储备。本文的另一个重要结论是,中国经济的增长和波动是统一的。尽管其中的机制有别于真实经济周期理论,但是,“中性”依然应该作为宏观经济政策的基本出发点。     

Smith,Marshall and Young on division of labour and economic growth

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the theory of division of labour and economic growth proposed by Adam Smith and developed by Alfred Marshall and Allyn Young. In their approach division of labour is the main engine of growth and plays a central role in capital accumulation and technological progress. We suggest that, according to their theory: 1) economic growth is endogenous; 2) it has the nature of a cumulative, path-dependent process; and 3) it can be described as a disequilibrium process, supported by competitive forces. We argue that these aspects make the contributions of Smith, Marshall and Young still insightful for the development of growth theory, even in the light of the modern approach of endogenous growth theory.     

International migration,economic policy and human capital accumulation: a simulation study

"This paper examines the economic policy implications of international migration and human capital accumulation within a dynamic general equilibrium model. Each country produces by means of physical and human capital of two types (skilled and unskilled labour). Along optimal growth paths in a world of diverging population growth rates immigration can only be beneficial when the free rider effect (i.e., not paying for training costs) exceeds the capital dilution effect of an increase in population growth. Under quite general conditions the optimal immigration rate is zero."     

Technological change,efficiency gains and capital accumulation in labour productivity growth and convergence: an application to the Spanish regions

The main objective of this article is to analyse labour productivity growth and convergence in the Spanish regions between 1965 and 1995, decomposing total factor productivity gains into technological progress and efficiency change by means of Malmquist productivity indices. On the basis of this decomposition, labour productivity growth is broken down into components attributable to technological change (shifts in the frontier), efficiency gains (movements toward the frontier) and capital accumulation (movements along the frontier). The approach followed in this study is based on work initiated by Färe et al., where a link between the economic growth and convergence literature and the production frontier approach was established. Furthermore, in the spirit of Quah's approach, the evolution of the whole distribution is considered. Thus, the analysis of the dynamics of the entire distribution of labour productivity and the factors behind it – technological progress, efficiency gains and capital accumulation – combine both approaches, yielding new insights into the process of productivity growth and convergence experienced by the Spanish regions over the last 30 years.     

经济增长的技术进步效率研究:1978-2000

利用索洛模型法估算出我国1978-2010年间全要素生产率的增长率,并依据估算结果对我国全要素生产率增长和经济增长动因作简要分析,以考察经济增长中的技术进步效率。分析结果表明,1978年以来我国的改革开放政策卓有成效,技术进步效率为经济增长作出了很大贡献,其在总产出中的贡献率为32。96%,仅次于资本投入对经济增长的贡献率,比劳动投入贡献率高。另外,我国全要素生产率增长对经济增长的贡献率比较适中,这与我国当前经济发展阶段较为适应,符合经济增长方式转变的阶段性规律。     

Labour quality in Taiwan: measurement and contribution to economic growth

This article compiles labour input indices that capture both employment changes and quality improvement of labour in Taiwan, from 1994 to 2011. Up to 77.19% of average annual labour input growth is from quality improvement. Further decomposition reveals that the most important source of growth is educational attainment, followed by age structure. Moreover, we find that Taiwan’s average annual GDP growth rate does not result from capital investment but from the contribution of a stable labour input to economic growth. Taiwan is a newly industrialized country, but because of the diminishing returns to capital, the catch-up effect has been slower than hoped. Additional capital investment has a relatively small effect on productivity, and the main source of the continuous economic growth rate is from labour quality, especially from highly skilled human capital. Making good use of these human resources creates a stable source of sustained economic growth.     

Efficiency change,technological change and capital accumulation in Italian regions: a sectoral study

This paper examines the sources of labour productivity in the Italian regions during the period 1980–2004. Five economic sectors are investigated using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and taking into account productive specialisation and sector inefficiencies. Labour productivity change is decomposed into five components by means of Malmquist productivity indices: intra-sector efficiency change, composition efficiency change, input-biased technical change, magnitude component technical change and capital accumulation. Using bootstrap procedure, the components of labour productivity changes are statistically tested. Efficiency analysis shows that productive specialisation is not a source of inefficiency and efficiency gains can be obtained by sector-specific policies. Thus, it is possible to obtain improvements in efficiency in each sector of activity rather than reallocating resources among sectors. The results of the decomposition by sectors reveal heterogeneous sources of growth. The total economy has shown evidence of non-neutral technical change and, it has been found that agriculture, industry and construction experienced capital using technical change. The analysis of the decomposition of the labour productivity growth is complemented by an analysis of β-convergence.     

The evolution of the human capital of women

The labour market attachment of females has increased dramatically over the last half century, converging to a pattern similar to that of males. Human capital theory predicts an associated increase in human capital investment by females and a convergence in the life-cycle human capital investment profiles of males and females. This paper explores wage-based and job skills-based approaches to measuring the increased supply of efficiency units of human capital by females over the last four decades. Results suggest that the magnitude of the contribution of the increased human capital of women to post-war economic growth is substantially underestimated by conventional methods of measuring human capital and labour inputs. A complete picture of the evolution of the human capital of women requires new approaches to measuring their human capital.     

Poland’s uninterrupted growth performance: new growth accounting evidence

Since 1992 Poland has experienced an exceptionally long spell of output growth that was not interrupted even by the global economic crisis. Using a growth accounting exercise based on new estimates of flows of capital and labour services in the Polish economy during the period 1996–2013, we study the structure of this growth, highlighting the key role of certain supply-side factors. Most notably, unlike other European countries, the Polish economy recorded both a marked increase in capital deepening, a big improvement in workforce composition (driven mostly by educational attainment), and an uninterrupted process of productivity convergence. We also comment on the supply-side factors which contributed to Poland’s relative resilience to the global economic crisis of 2007–2010.     

Regional economic growth disparities: A political economy perspective

Regional differences in economic growth have been observed within many countries. Our story emphasises three region-specific factors driving growth—capital, labour and political factors. Conditional on differences in production factor (i.e., labour and capital) variations across democratic states, what role do differences in underlying “political factors” across regions play in accounting for regional growth disparities? We build a political economy model of endogenous growth where regions have the same political institutions, but experience different (and estimable) distributions over voter political biases (i.e., our “political factors”). In our model, political factors affect regional productivity as a consequence of politico-economic equilibrium. We discipline our regional growth accounting exercises by calibrating/estimating each model to American state-level economic and political-survey data. We show that the capital factor is the predominant driving force behind growth in American states. Nevertheless, regional variations in distributions of voter's political biases also account a great deal for regional growth disparities. We also evaluate how much politics would have distorted agents' welfare and regional growth, were regional economies given the opportunity to live under an efficient social planner's allocation system; and, if agents were to live under the same democratic system but where all voters have equal voting influence.