中国粮食供需的预测指标体系及模型设计

通过建立粮食需求预测指标体系,从口粮、饲料粮、种子粮、工业用粮及粮食损耗角度实现了粮食需求预测。并采用基于三次指数平滑模型、灰色预测模型、支持向量机预测模型的组合预测模型,成功实现了粮食供给预测。最后,在粮食供需综合分析中,确认了粮食供需缺口的存在性。     

乳品消费市场供求关系预测研究

系统地分析了影响我国乳品消费的各个因素，找出了乳品消费量低的症结。又采用双对数模型和面板估计的方法对奶类供求现状进行预测和分析，结果表明我国奶类未来产消平衡将出现较大的缺口，应该形成合理的畜产品供给结构，有效地刺激我国居民消费乳品。     

Human capital and economic growth: A macroeconomic model for Pakistan

The paper presents a small macro model for Pakistan economy focusing the impact of investment in human capital on the key macroeconomic variables. The demand side is modeled along the Keynesian lines while the supply side is modeled as per neoclassical theory of production. This framework allows analyzing the effects of investment in human capital on supply side variables (like labor, physical and human capital) and demand side variables (like consumption and investment) at the same time.The model has small forecasting horizon in which three alternative scenarios regarding government spending on education are evaluated from 2012 to 2016. The model shows that the link between human capital and labor market is weak however a change in education spending affects output through enhancing productivity and through multiplier-accelerator principle. Though the model is small in size and forecasting horizon, it can help in evaluating the future paths of key macroeconomic variables associated with education spending.     

A forecasting model for food and other expenditures

An econometric model consisting of an inverse demand system and a set of lagged supply response relationships; for major categories of US personal consumption expenditures is formulated. The model is capable of sequentially forecasting per capita personal consumption expenditures and their expenditure shares in the long run.     

计划生育、城市化与我国房地产市场的发展

计划生育由于影响人口的增长与人口结构的变化从而在一定时期推高房地产需求,但长期将缩减房地产需求;城市化由于影响人口的迁移从而长期地推高房地产需求,但其边际效应也将趋于递减。所以,随着时间的推移,房地产市场的供求关系向供过于求转变。而目前存在两个重要的加大房地产市场杠杆的因素：“打捆贷款”与“预售制”,他们在供不应求的时候通过加速供给的形成而使各方皆大欢喜,在供过于求时却放大了房地产市场的金融风险。     

中国货币需求稳定性的实证研究--基于1994-2005年的协整分析

本文以经济改革和金融发展为背景,从经典货币需求理论分析出发,运用协整检验和误差校正模型对我国货币需求的稳定性问题展开研究.分析结果显示,货币需求、国民收入、利率和通货膨胀率之间存在协整关系;我国货币需求主要受收入因素影响而呈现出长期稳定性特征,长期稳定的货币需求对其即期增长的抑制作用不明显,货币需求函数表现出高收入弹性和低利率弹性,而利率的外生性削弱了货币需求对利率的调节作用;基于VEC模型的短期Granger因果检验,支持货币量、利率和货币政策最终目标之间短期均衡关系的存在.     

California regional registered nurse workforce forecast

OBJECTIVE: To forecast the shortage of registered nurses (RNs) of the 24 Primary Metropolitan Statistical Areas (PMSA) and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) in California. BACKGROUND: A nursing shortage prevails nationally and is most serious in the state of California. Successful interventions in the alleviation of the RN shortage will require effective resource allocation and academic program development in various regions throughout the state. While various published studies have focused on nursing workforce development at the state and even regional levels, there are no studies focused on identifying RN shortages at the PMSA or MSA (P/MSA) level. In this report, a forecasting model is developed to systematically analyze the future supply and demand of the RN workforce within each California P/MSA. METHODS: Using accessible public databases, forecasting models were constructed to project the demand and supply of RN jobs in California P/MSAs. In the demand model, population age and size were used as determinants of regionally required RN jobs. In the RN jobs (supply) model, a region's supply of RNs was the net sum of factors increasing and decreasing the regional presence of RN jobs, including RN graduations, migration, and aging of the RN workforce. The combination of these supply and demand models was used to produce regional RN shortage forecasts for future years. RESULTS: Almost all regions exhibited growing shortages by 2020 at rates ranging from 3% to 600%. Using a modified version of the grading rubric of the California Regional Registered Nurse Workforce Report Card (Lin, Lee, Juraschek, & Jones, 2006), only two regions will receive a grade above "C" in 2020. The number of "F" grades will grow to nine. CONCLUSIONS: California has the lowest RN ratio in the United States (Fletcher, Guzley, Barnhill, & Philhour, 2004; Health Resources and Services Administration, 2004a) and this RN workforce forecasting model shows that over the next 15 years, the majority of P/MSAs in California will have increasing RN shortages. This analysis has significant policy implications including the need to create specific plans to mitigate the effect of the California shortage.     

Money demand, the Cagan model, testing rational expectations vs adaptive expectations: The case of Turkey

This paper estimates the Cagan type demand for money function for Turkish economy during the period 1986:1–1995:3 and tests whether Cagan's specification fits the Turkish data using an econometric technique assuming that forecasting errors are stationary. This paper also tests the hypothesis that monetary policy was implemented in aiming to maximize the inflation tax revenue. Finally, the Cagan model is estimated with the additional assumption of rational expectations for Turkey for the considered period. First version received: March 1998/final version received: October 1998     

Forecasting requirements for health care personnel

Accurate forecasting of requirements for health care personnel is an important part of avoiding significant imbalances that create costly inefficiencies in health care markets. Manpower shortages threaten access, quality, and costs of health care. This article reviews five general approaches previously used to determine manpower requirements. Suggestions are made for the analytic components of a comprehensive model for identifying significant imbalances in supply or demand for health care workers.     

Validating HRSA's nurse supply and demand models: a state-level perspective

In addition to federal initiatives, solutions to the nursing shortage must also be devised at the state level. Understanding the timing and severity of the nursing shortage in a particular state is paramount to devising appropriate solutions In 2005, the Health Resources and Services Administration released new versions of the Nurse Supply Model and Nurse Demand Model designed to project the supply of RNs and demand for RNs, LPNs, and nurse aides in the United States through the year 2020. The process used by two state-level analysts to project nurse supply and demand in North Carolina using the HRSA models is described. The authors conclude that the models work well for state-level forecasting but that users should carefully assess the default data provided with the model against independent data sources specific to their states.     

Price competition, quality and income disparities

A market is considered, the demand side of which consists of a large number of consumers with identical tastes but different income levels, and the supply side, of two firms selling at no cost products which are relatively close substitutes for each other. Consumers are assumed to make indivisible and mutually exclusive purchases. A full characterization of the demand structure and the non cooperative market solution is given, and the dependence of the latter on income distribution and quality parameters is analyzed.     

Technological forecasting: Applicability,relevance and future crisis analysis in a developing country

The relevance of technological forecasting for a developing country with examples from the Indian scene is discussed. The applicability of some of the techniques of technological forecasting under Indian conditions is examined. It is shown that certain parameters in India follow systematic semilogarithmic and substitution trends, as in the case of developed countries, and these trends may be extrapolated into the future with some confidence.Using mainly extrapolation technique, a future crisis analysis for the Indian situation up to the year 2000 is presented. Steps have been suggested to avert the impending crisis. These include (1) determination of future supply and demand positions of various basic materials; (2) conducting Delphi exercises; (3) selection of the best alternatives in view of resource constraints using economic analysis; (4) wide dissemination of the results to make the decisionmakers and scientists aware of these possible solutions; (5) framing suitable policies and executing them, starting now, so that the desired future becomes a reality.     

Sources of fluctuations in hours worked for Canada,Germany, Japan and the U.S.: a sign restriction VAR approach

This study empirically examines the sources of fluctuations in hours worked in Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.S. It is particularly motivated by Galí’s (1999) VAR study, which demonstrates that a positive technology shock reduces hours worked, at least in the short run. However, in the present study, a technology shock is identified without recourse to Galí’s long-run restriction, which has been subject to active controversy. Furthermore, this study uncovers other important sources of fluctuations in hours worked to reflect the concern, raised by numerous studies, that technology shocks leave most variations in hours worked unexplained. Specifically, there are six shocks underlying our model, and they are identified using a set of sign restrictions. The empirical results confirm that in all four countries, a positive technology shock significantly reduces hours worked. This technology shock, along with labor supply and demand shocks, accounts for most of the short-term variations in hours worked. As the forecasting horizon increases, technology and demand shocks become less important, whereas labor supply shocks contribute to explaining the bulk of long-run variations in hours worked. Finally, the empirical relevance of Galí’s long-run identification restriction is tested and the results are related to those obtained using the sign restriction model.     

中国石油产量的VERHULST模型的建立与分析

随着我国国民经济的快速发展,对能源的需求逐渐增大,尤其是对石油的需求逐年上升,石油的供应问题已成为普遍关注的问题。我国石油资源赋存条件差,石油增储难度大,大多数主力油田已进入中后期开采阶段,石油产量增产难度大。面对日益增加的石油需求,及时准确、科学地预测我国今后一段时期石油产量,对于制定石油需求和石油战略储备计划具有重要的现实意义。因此,根据我国石油产量变化特点,建立了Verhulst模型,经过检验,模型预测精度很高,并对2020年以前的石油产量进行了预测。     

组合预测模型在区域物流需求预测中的应用

针对单一预测方法用于区域物流需求量预测存在的不足,文章提出了基于预测有效度的组合预测模型,即通过组合多个单一模型的预测结果,发挥各自的优点,提高预测的精确度。以广东省江门市为例,分别采用线性回归模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和组合预测模型对其物流需求量进行了预测,实证结果表明区域物流需求组合预测模型能够取得更高的预测精度。     

Teacher sorting, teacher quality, and student composition

Using panel data for Norwegian schools, we establish a two-equation supply and demand model for teachers with approved education. Taking into account nationally determined teacher pay and a strict teacher appointment rule, the data enable us to separately estimate supply and demand functions for certified teachers. The results clearly indicate that the student body composition, and in particular students belonging to ethnic minorities, influences both teacher supply and teacher demand. The implied negative relationship between excess demand for certified teachers and the share of minority students is likely to be important for teacher quality.     

A linear demand system within a seemingly unrelated time series equations framework

A seemingly unrelated time series equations framework for the linear almost ideal (AID) demand system is considered. The framework is applied to a consumer demand system covering nine non-durable commodities. Within a specification where the static linear AID system is augmented by latent variables representing stochastic trends and seasonality, demand homogeneity is tested; both in each equation and in the system as a whole. Income and own-price elasticities are calculated under homogeneity restrictions. Although the homogeneous model is formally rejected by statistical tests, it performs well with respect to interpretability, parameter stability and forecasting.     

Backing into the future : On the methodological and institutional biases embedded in energy supply and demand forecasting

The great variability and inaccuracy of past energy supply and demand forecasts suggests that they are an unreliable basis for policy analysis and planning. This paper argues that unreliability cannot be eliminated from these analyses by increasing their sophistication, since many of the problems involved in forecasting inhere in the techniques themselves or in the institutional context within which they are used. This argument is illustrated by an examination of the natural gas forecasts of the Canadian National Energy Board.     

混合型供应链订单渗透点的确定

推式供应链追求的是效率,其缺点是当市场需求预测不准确时产品的滞销大.拉式供应链追求的是对客户的快速响应、减少在制品库存,其缺点是响应需求的成本较高、难以形成规模经济.多数产业的供应链是由“推式”与“拉式”两部分组成的混合型供应链,其追求的是效率与响应的平衡,即确定订单渗透点的合理位置.订单渗透点的位置受市场因素、产品因素、生产因素的影响.导致订单渗透点位置向前或向后移的主要驱动因素分别是提高定制化水平、减少在制品库存、减少送货时间和提高生产效率.最后,用一个家具企业的案例说明订单渗透点的位置是如何移动的,并由此导致供应链绩效的提高.