试析马克思对个人的认识——一种不同于“经济人”假设的个人观念

本文旨在从马克思对斯密相关观点的批判以及他本人的论述中揭示他独特的个人观念,认为马克思也承认自利性和理性行为特征,他所持有的个人观念与"经济人"假设之间的根本分歧在于,马克思主张把人们在彼此间结成的依赖和制约关系也看作是个人的行为特征之一,正是这种对个人理解上的分歧构成了两种理论体系关于个人行为选择认识上的分野.     

也谈集体行动的逻辑——基于对马克思相关观点的理解

笔者认为,西方传统思想忽视个人闻的关系,把集体理解为若干"经济人"的集合;马克思则强调人们之间的依赖和制约并将其视为个人的行为特征之一,主张关注阶级成员结成的关系,认为这种关系还要受与其他阶级结成的关系的制约,并由此出发理解阶级的集体行动.笔者基于对马克思相关观点的理解尝试探讨个人间的依赖和制约是怎样最终促成阶级间的依存和对抗的,认为奥尔森秉持西方传统思想去解读和批评马克思阶级理论,所得出的结论有失偏颇.马克思基于自己独特的个人观念去阐释阶级的集体行动,他的论述没有遇到阿罗试图从"经济人"行为选择出发解释集体行动时遇到的困惑.     

马克思阶级理论的方法论归属探究

笔者分析了马克思的个人观念和阶级观念,认为马克思眼中的个人是自利和理性的,并结成相互依赖、相互制约的社会关系;他眼中的阶级是阶级成员间关系的总和,是阶级关系的承担者.马克思强调阶级成员间的关系及阶级关系产生自个人行为选择,个人利益和个人行为是阶级利益和阶级行为的基础,他是从个人入手构建阶级理论的.如果除去西方主流思想孤立的个人观念的教条,把方法论个人主义理解为从个人入手解释经济现象的原则,那么马克思阶级理论,符合方法论个人主义原则的本意.     

个人资产选择行为导致经济波动的机制分析

本文主张把人们的资产选择行为区分为投资和投机两类,投资的目的在于获得资产投入生产经营活动带来的收益,投机的目的在于获得资产持有期间价格上涨的好处。在此基础上,本文尝试分析个人资产选择行为,探讨资产市场均衡的形成及其调整,认为人们的资产选择行为会导致经济出现波动。由此,本文强调不能把近年全球严峻的经济形势仅仅理解为金融危机,各国政府普遍推行的旨在稳定金融领域的政策在短期内提高了投机性资产的预期收益率,对投资性资产参与其中的生产经营活动产生不利影响。     

马克思对庸俗经济学价值缺失与拜物教的批判

马克思深刻揭示和批判了庸俗经济学的价值缺失和拜物教.价值缺失致使庸俗经济学停留于货币和价格的表面现象,并滑向了货币拜物教和商品拜物教的迷,因而无法揭示资本主义生产关系本质.在对斯密价值理论的解析中,马克思就已经揭示了经济学的拜物教倾向.斯密和李嘉图之后的正统经济学逐渐远离了劳动价值论,尤其是边际主义兴起以后,完全倒向了以效用价值论和均衡价格为主要表征的拜物教.拜物教不仅体现了庸俗经济学的世界观和方法论,也符合资本家自身的利益.重新认识马克思劳动价值论的理论贡献,破除庸俗经济学拜物教的影响,对于正确认识经济全球化和"一带一路"具有重要的现实意义.     

斯密、凯恩斯和马克思分析资本主义经济的不同角度:长期、短期和超长期

斯密、凯恩斯和马克思这三大经济学家分析资本主义经济的不同角度可以分别用长期、短期和超长期来表示。凯恩斯的短期分析与斯密的长期分析的共同点是以资本主义经济制度为既定前提,分歧仅在于资本主义经济是否能够自动实现充分就业均衡。马克思的超长期分析与斯密的长期分析和凯恩斯的短期分析最根本分歧在于资本主义经济制度是否必将走向灭亡。在二者之间存在根本分歧的前提下,从马克思经济学的视角看,对资本主义经济的长期分析和短期分析并非毫无意义,而且是必要的;从西方经济学的视角看,马克思对资本主义经济的超长期分析也有重要借鉴意义,并对其发展产生了重要影响。     

剩余价值的生产与再分配——基于分析马克思主义视角

马克思经济学认为,剩余价值是生产过程中工人创造出来的超过劳动力价值的价值。劳动力新创造的价值超过价值的这一部分,在资本市场中进一步分割为利润、利息和地租等资产性收入。这一观点可以做进一步推理:如果工人自由地选择任意消费品,并且资本家根据最优化行为对所有资产进行投资,并不改变马克思的结论。同时,资本家利润最大化行为使得个别资本家总是按照其资本禀赋在社会总资本中所占比例获取剩余价值。因此,新古典一般均衡的分析技术可以被纳入马克思劳动价值论的理论框架内。     

西方经济学“经济人”假设与马克思“经济人”思想比较研究

亚当.斯密完整地提出了"经济人"思想,强调在市场经济中个人参与市场经济活动的动机是谋求私利,并且个人谋求私利的活动将自动地增进社会福利。斯密以来的经济学家根据新的经济条件不断丰富和完善"经济人"思想,构成现代西方经济学理论分析的基础。马克思则提出了不同于西方经济学的"经济人"思想,并体现于其经济学著作中。本文对西方经济学"经济人"假设与马克思"经济人"的思想做了比较分析。     

治理国际热钱冲击的对策建议

目前在我国进行投机活动的热钱已经达到了一个相当大的规模,并且在一定程度上影响着我国股票和房地产等资产的价格,进而可能对国民经济造成较大的冲击。因此,对热钱流向的监测、预警、疏导和管理已经刻不容缓,本文就应对热钱冲击,提出以下对策建议。提高人民币汇率弹性,弱化人民币升值预期,完善人民币汇率形成机制。由于目前国际热钱大规模流入我国是基于不断增强的人民币升     

流动性冲击与资产价格波动研究——基于中国数据的实证检验

文章通过对推行改革开放以来我国流动性冲击与资产价格波动的实证研究发现,我国存在着显著的流动性冲击引致资产价格波动的现象,但流动性冲击对于资产价格波动的影响存在明显的时滞效应。对于不同的资产,流动性冲击引致资产价格波动的效应不同:对房地产市场而言,流动性冲击首先对房地产价格造成影响,但房地产价格对流动性冲击的反向影响作用并不明显,财富效应不显著;就股票市场来看,流动性冲击的效果体现得较慢,但后期二者相互影响,且关系较为稳定,存在显著的财富效应。     

《资本论》研究的新方位:经济行为理论

《资本论》研究客观过程的发展规律包含在一定关系中的主体行为的规律。主体经济行为既与客观过程的发展有区别,又紧密联系。各个主体及其行为并非完全是同质的,在经济过程中的作用也不同。各种主体相互差异的行为会直接间接地影响社会总资本的发展。经济行为理论是资本理论的进一步具体化。研究主体经济行为是唯物史观在经济研究领域的贯彻。马克思不仅考察资本家与雇佣工人之间的行为关系,而且注意考察不同资本家之间的关系。研究资本家的经济行为,一方面可从中发掘一般的经济行为规律,另一方面可以批判资本家行为的非理性。     

Investors' Personality Influences Investment Decisions: Experimental Evidence on Extraversion and Neuroticism

The authors analyze the impact of individuals' degree of extraversion and neuroticism on their decision making in an experimental asset market. To establish this link between research on experimental asset markets and social psychology the authors use a unique approach that combines a questionnaire designed to assess individuals' degree of extraversion and neuroticism and an experimental asset market to assess individual financial decision making. The dataset combines 364 undergraduate business students' questionnaire responses and their trading behavior in the asset market. The authors find that extraversion and neuroticism significantly influence individuals' behavior in the experimental asset market. Specifically, more extraverted individuals pay higher prices for financial assets and they buy more financial assets when assets are overpriced than less extraverted individuals do. More neurotic individuals hold less risky assets in their financial portfolios than less neurotic individuals do. Although a large part of the explanatory power appears to be driven by gender differences, the authors still find significant impact of extraversion and neuroticism after controlling for gender effects. The study findings suggest that further research on financial markets could benefit from including personality of market participants as a crucial explanatory factor.     

我国资产价格波动与货币政策关系研究

随着金融自由化的逐步推进,资本市场存量日益增大.这既体现了金融深化程度的提高,又意味着货币供应与国民经济主要指标之间稳定性的弱化.资产价格对货币政策的制订和执行会产生深刻的影响.其中股价、房价等资产价格在货币政策传导机制中扮演的角色越来越重要.本文从实证角度出发,通过构建VAR模型检验我国资产价格对货币政策的反应以及资产价格对货币政策目标的影响,发现资产价格、货币政策及货币政策目标间存在长期协整关系,资产价格对产出有正向冲击作用,股市显著影响通货膨胀,但房地产市场对通货膨胀推动作用不明显,资产价格受货币政策的冲击影响显著,其中股市对货币政策冲击的反应明显大于房地产市场.     

FUTURES MARKETS AND BUBBLE FORMATION IN EXPERIMENTAL ASSET MARKETS*

Abstract. We construct asset markets of the type studied in Smith et al. (1988) , in which price bubbles and crashes are widely observed. In addition to a spot market, there are futures markets in operation, one maturing at the beginning of each period of the life of the asset. We find that when futures markets are present, bubbles do not occur in the spot markets. The futures markets seem to reduce the speculation and the decision errors that appear to give rise to price bubbles in experimental asset markets.     

No-arbitrage, state prices and trade in thin financial markets

We examine how non-competitiveness in financial markets affects the choice of asset portfolios and the determination of equilibrium prices. In our model, potential arbitrage is conducted by a few highly specialized institutional investors who recognize and estimate the impact of their trades on financial prices. We apply a model of economic equilibrium, based on Weretka (, 2007a), in which price effects are determined endogenously as part of the equilibrium concept. For the case in which markets allow for perfect insurance, we argue that the principle of no-arbitrage asset pricing is consistent with non-competitive behavior of the arbitragers and extend the fundamental theorem of asset pricing to the non-competitive setting.     

Speculation and corn prices

It is commonly asserted that speculative trading activities are largely behind the high and volatile food commodity price behaviour since 2006. In this article, we revisit this hypothesis by investigating how different speculative measures affect our conclusion on the role of speculation. Four speculative measures are considered, including index trading activities, non-commercial net long positions, Working’s speculative index, and an excessive speculative volume index. These four measures imply different underlying hypotheses about the role of speculation on commodity price movements and encompass most of the measures used in the recent literature on the role of speculation in commodity markets. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we show a mixed impact of speculative trading on corn prices depending on the measure used. While shocks to index trading activities and excess speculation as measured by Working’s T have either zero or negative impact on corn prices, a positive shock to non-commercial net positions or the Tadesse index significantly increases the price of corn. However, the magnitude of the impact is not large, at most about $0.30 per bushel in real terms. Our findings are robust to structural breaks, alternative ordering of variables, and an alternative specification of the model.     

中国股市的理性泡沫

传统理论通常把证券市场的泡沫与投资者的非理性行为混为一谈。近期的研究却表明在一个完全理性的市场中 ,泡沫依然可以出现。本文首先对我国证券市场存在理性泡沫的可能性提出多种理论解释 ,认为下列原因导致了我国证券市场泡沫的存在 :( 1 )上市审批制 ;( 2 )可供投资的证券种类少 ;( 3 )政府的托市行为 ;( 4)卖空机制的缺乏 ;( 5)套利机制缺乏有效性 ;( 6)上市公司很少分红 ,投资者买卖股票只是为了获得买卖差价。其次 ,我们通过分析所得的结果 ,提出应对理性泡沫的政策措施。     

Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values

We construct asset markets that are similar to those studied by Smith, Suchanek and Williams (Econometrica. 56, 1119–1151) in which bubbles and crashes tended to occur. The main difference between the markets studied here and those studied by Smith et al. is that in the markets studied here, the fundamental value of the asset is constant over the entire life of the asset. In four of the eight sessions reported here, we observe bubbles, which are prices considerably higher than fundamental values. The data suggest that the frequent payment of dividends is a major cause of bubble formation. The property that the fundamental value remains constant over the course of the trading horizon is not sufficient to eliminate the possibility of a bubble.     

我国资产价格暴涨的政治经济学分析

近年来,我国以房地产和股票为代表的资产价格急剧上涨,结构因素、总量因素和重新定价因素等相继成为解释的原因。笔者以全球流动性过剩的国际传导为视角,对我国资产价格暴涨进行了政治经济学分析,认为资金太多才是本轮资产价格暴涨的主要原因。因此,当务之急是在公开、公平和公正原则下,对资产价格进行正常蒸发,同时谨防短期国际资本以概念炒作的方式对我国进行远程非接触式攻击。