动态比较优势与政策干预

在产品价值链全球化过程中,各国生产技术、要素禀赋结构和产业发展环境等方面的差异造成了各国比较优势产品结构的不同,而比较优势产品处于低端的国家获得较少的贸易利益。为了提高对外贸易利益,以低端产品为比较优势的国家应不断提升比较优势产品附加值水平,转变比较优势结构。比较优势结构的变动内生于技术进步和要素禀赋结构的转变,所以应通过加强边干边学、技术创新和对技术扩散的吸收促进技术进步;通过促进资本积累转变要素禀赋结构,特别应注重教育与职业培训,提高人力资本水平和技术创新能力。同时,政府对当前并不具有比较优势但附加值较高的产业进行政策支持,则能够使动态比较优势结构发生逆转,有效促进比较优势产品向高端过渡。     

How Robust is Comparative Advantage?

This paper reviews the theoretical development of the concept of comparative advantage, starting with the two‐good model of Ricardo and the two‐good extension and reinterpretation by Haberler. In both, the presence of comparative advantage provides the scope for countries to gain from trade by specializing, and the pattern of that trade is explained by the pattern of comparative advantage. These strong results of the two‐good model can be extended under certain circumstances to multiple goods and countries, but under more general assumptions such strong results no longer are assured. Instead one can derive much weaker results, usually in the form of correlations between comparative advantage and trade, and these weaker results hold in a much wider variety of circumstances. The paper examines those assumptions that permit such generalizations, but then also examines when those assumptions are most likely to fail, and what happens as a result.     

WHAT DETERMINES TRADE BETWEEN CHINA AND INDIA DURING THE RECESSION OF 2008–2012?

Despite the international status of China and India rising dramatically in the previous decades, trade between the two countries did not grow accordingly. This paper investigates the determinants of the bilateral trade performance during the period of 2008–2012 from two perspectives: comparative advantage and trade protection. Two cases, Chinese exports to India, and Indian exports to China, are analyzed by using product‐level data. The results suggest that (1) the law of comparative advantage and trade protection explain the pattern of China–India trade, while (2) in a time of crisis, the adverse forces become prominent which explains the declining trend of the bilateral trade. (JEL F13, F14)     

The Long-run Trade Pattern in a Growing Economy

We analyze the determinants of the trade pattern in a two-country growing economy. The long-run trade pattern depends on the structure of the absolute advantage as well as the comparative advantage, because the absolute advantage determines the terms of trade and the value of the marginal product of capital which affect the growth rate in our model. Moreover, we find that opening trade reduces or removes the difference in the growth rates of the two countries when the country lagging in the growth rate has a comparative advantage in a consumption commodity. Received June 18, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003     

International Trade and Manufacturing Employment: Is India following the Footsteps of Asia or Africa?

The Indian manufacturing sector has rapidly increased its integration with the world economy since the 1991 trade reforms. We examine whether trade integration created or destroyed jobs in the Indian manufacturing sector, and compare India's employment outcomes with four other countries—Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa, and Vietnam. We find that the impact of international trade on manufacturing employment seems to be similar to those found for the two African countries rather than the two Asian countries, a surprising result for a country with an apparent comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing goods, and a large excess supply of unskilled labor.     

SHIFT WORKING AND TRADE IN LABOUR SERVICES WITH TIME ZONE DIFFERENCES

Using a two‐factor (labour and capital), two‐good (shift‐working and non‐shift‐working commodities) model with two countries (Home and Foreign), which are located in different time zones, we highlight the impact of trade in labour services (via communications networks) on the comparative advantage of countries capable of such trade. It is shown that a comparative advantage in a shift‐working commodity is held by pairs of countries in different time zones and connected through a good communication network. Concerning factor prices, if the shift‐working commodity is capital (respectively, labour) intensive, the wage rate for day‐shift labour will decrease (respectively, increase) as a result of trade in labour services. It is also demonstrated that this labour service utilization is mutual: some of Home's day‐shift labour will be utilized for the Foreign night shift, and vice versa. Thus, periodic trade in labour services occurs across countries.     

中印商品贸易的竞争性与互补性分析

中国和印度同为世界上发展中大国,由于两国地理位置相邻,国情相似,使得两国在贸易中有很大的相似性。运用贸易结合度指数、显示性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数三个测度指标,探析中国和印度商品贸易的竞争性和互补性的态势,对中国制定正确的贸易政策和促连双方经贸合作具有十分重要的意义。     

Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms

This paper examines how country, industry, and firm characteristics interact in general equilibrium to determine nations' responses to trade liberalization. When firms possess heterogeneous productivity, countries differ in relative factor abundance, and industries vary in factor intensity, falling trade costs induce reallocations of resources both within and across industries and countries. These reallocations generate substantial job turnover in all sectors, spur relatively more creative destruction in comparative advantage industries than in comparative disadvantage industries, and magnify ex ante comparative advantage to create additional welfare gains from trade. The improvements in aggregate productivity as countries liberalize dampen and can even reverse the real-wage losses of scarce factors.     

Against free trade: Neoclassical and steady-state perspectives

The author argues against free trade as a default position for international trade. He shows that arguments for free trade based on comparative advantage do not hold in reality. First, free trade makes cost-internalization for single countries difficult leading to standard-lowering competition and misallocation. Second, the international mobility of capital leads to absolute rather than comparative advantage for single countries, thus leading to maldistribution. Finally, the ecological basis seriously limits the scope for catching-up. Priority should be given alternatively to domestic production of a steady-state type with balanced trade.     

Trade in goods and services: Two sides of the same coin?

This study analyzes the interrelationship between goods and services in production and trade using the most recent input–output tables for all OECD countries. It first describes the role of services in production and trade in goods. Next, it proposes two models for analyzing the impact of services trade liberalization on industrial structure. The first captures the role of trade in tasks when countries have different technology i) in production of services; and ii) in organizing production. The latter has to the author's knowledge not been analyzed in the trade literature before. Countries with superior organizational technology (e.g. Japan) will strengthen their comparative advantage in manufacturing following trade liberalization in services. The second model explores the interrelationship between intermediate goods and services i) when they are substitutes; and ii) when they are complements. In both models the gains from trade liberalization is non-linear in trade costs. Going the last mile of liberalization has a much larger impact than taking the first steps.     

An Inframarginal Analysis of the Ricardian Model

This paper shows that a 2 × 2 Ricardian model has a unique general equilibrium, and the comparative statics of the equilibrium involve discontinuous jumps. If partial division of labor occurs in equilibrium, the country producing both goods would impose a tariff, whereas the country producing a single good would prefer unilateral free trade. If complete division of labor occurs in equilibrium, both countries would negotiate to achieve free trade. In a model with three countries, the country which does not have a comparative advantage relative to the other two countries, and/or which has low transaction efficiency, may be excluded from trade.     

Shared Renewable Resources: Gains from Trade and Trade Policy

This paper examines the effects of international trade and trade policy in a two‐country, two‐good model with an open‐access renewable resource that is internationally shared. We show that both countries may still benefit from trade when they specialize in the production of their comparative advantage good, although the shared resource is reduced by trade. In addition, we demonstrate that the steady state utility of a resource‐good importing country may be reduced by trade, even if it specializes in the production of a non‐resource good. Import tariffs and export taxes on a resource good may increase or decrease the shared stock level depending on the production patterns in a trading steady state. The trade policy is likely to be Pareto‐improving when the shared stock rises, while both countries may be made worse off by the trade policy when the shared stock falls.     

The Effects of Technology Changes on Sectoral Trade Patterns*

We develop a model in which sectoral trade patterns depend on both the technology common to all sectors and the technologies specific to each sector. Changes in the common technology level affect sectoral trade patterns through their impact on intertemporal optimization behavior, while changes in the sector‐specific technology levels affect sectoral trade patterns by influencing comparative advantage. The model shows: (1) unexpected increases in the common technology level worsen sectoral trade balances, but expected increases in the common technology level improve them; and (2) given other countries’ sectoral technology levels, an increase in a sector‐specific technology level relative to other sectors improves sectoral trade balances through its operation on comparative advantage. Using Japanese data, the empirical results reported in this paper support the model’s predictions.     

中、日、韩知识密集型服务贸易结构变动及比较优势的实证研究——基于RCA与特化系数等的分析

笔者从进出口总量、贸易结构与贸易竞争力3个角度,应用对称性RCA指数、特化系数等指标,对于21世纪以来中、日、韩知识密集型服务贸易比较优势与贸易结构变化进行了比较分析。研究结果表明:中国知识密集型服务贸易逆差较大,且呈现出扩大的趋势,对知识密集型服务贸易需求急剧增长;在知识密集型服务贸易领域,中国在整体上比较优势弱,与日本、韩国相比,还有很大差距;从分项目的知识密集型服务贸易来看,中国位于知识密集型服务贸易的低端,中国弱势行业多为2国强势行业,中国通讯贸易与韩国通讯贸易在出口上存在竞争。     

Hub‐and‐spoke free trade areas: theory and evidence from Israel

Abstract We study how the sequential formation of free trade areas affects trade flows between member countries. In a three‐country, three‐good model of comparative advantage if two countries have an FTA, and both sign a similar agreement with the third, trade between the two decreases. However, if only one of them signs an additional FTA, a hub‐ and‐spoke pattern arises, and trade between the initial members increases. Israel’s experience lends strong support to our model: trade between Israel and the EU, subject to an FTA since 1975, increased by an additional 29% after the introduction of the US‐Israel FTA in 1985.     

The direction of developing country trade: Empirical evidence of differences between South-South and South-North trade

Declining market opportunities in Northern markets led to views that greater South-South trading might provide an alternative growth stimulus. This paper analyses the characteristics of South-South trade in manufactures and recent changes in the level of such trade to help clarify the potential of greater self-reliance within the South. South-South trade is found to be more intensive in the use of both physical and human capital, hence less rational from the static comparative advantage viewpoint than South-North trade. There is indirect but strong evidence that exporting countries with greatest orientation towards the South are those with greater distortions, less rapid movements up the ladder of comparative advantage, and weaker export performance. Finally, it is observed that the recent boom in South-South trade is largely explained by simple market size effects: very rapid growth of rich oil-exporters and the faster GNP growth of developing compared to developed countries. The paper concludes that while South-South trade of about the present magnitude-one of greater developing country exports - is certainly rational, there is little evidence to support views that greater South-South trade should be especially promoted. Arguments of dynamic comparative advantage may favor South-South trade, but so far these have been more speculative and not yet well researched empirically.     

Firm heterogeneity and Ricardian comparative advantage within and across sectors

This paper incorporates Melitz’s Econometrica (71:1695–1725, 2003) heterogeneous-firm trade model in the Ricardian model of comparative advantage with a continuum of sectors introduced by Dornbusch et al. (Am Econ Rev 67(5), 823–839, 1977). In particular, we characterise the equilibrium outcomes when neither sectors nor countries are symmetric. We find that trade patterns can follow Ricardian comparative advantage, while wage rates are proportional to market size due to a home market effect. Interestingly, trade liberalisation hurts the large country but benefits the small one by reducing the number of sectors with two-way trade and expanding those with specialised (one-way) trade. I would like to thank Mike Artis, Richard Baldwin, Frederic Robert-Nicoud, Matthias Helble, Giovanni Facchini, Thierry Verdier and a referee for their helpful comments and suggestions. Also I would like to thank Mike Artis for his excellent proof reading.     

中美贸易顺差的结构性成因分析

中国和美国之间的贸易顺差问题似乎已经成为中美关系的一个较大阻碍,理性地分析中关之间贸易顺差的成因已渐显迫切。本文从中美贸易顺差的规模和结构入手,详细分析了造成这一现象的结构性成因,得出中美贸易顺差是以比较优势为基础的正常的国际贸易不平衡的结论,从而两国应该以正确且双赢的态度来看待和处理这一问题。文章认为,要素禀赋理论肯定了各国发挥比较优势所能给自己所带来的福利的改善。中美的贸易顺差,从长远来看,它不仅有利于中国充分发挥其劳动丰裕国的优势,增进就业并推动中国经济的腾飞,同时有利于美国将其国内有限的资源应用到效率更高的其他行业当中去,促进产业结构升级和经济增长。这也意味着,两国应该正视并充分肯定这一现象,毕竟贸易不平衡是经济发展的结果而非原因,同时也需要两国拿出合作共赢的姿态尽早尽快地放松政策管制,以免给正常的双赢贸易带来扭曲。     

Poor institutions as a comparative advantage

Classic theories of comparative advantage point to factor productivity and factor abundance as determinants of specialization and trade. Likewise, geography and topography can determine trade patterns. Institutions, however, are increasingly seen as important sources of comparative advantage. A global drug prohibition regime implies that institutional quality matters more than traditional sources in the drug trade. This paper theoretically models trade patterns of illicit goods and confirms the role of institutions empirically with respect to the drug trade. In particular, illicit enterprises gain force in countries where resources are scarce, drug enforcement is uncertain, and institutions are weak in absolute terms and relative to neighboring countries. I propose several policy alternatives that emphasize economic opportunity for the poor and institutional quality that complement drug prohibition.     

Competition or Comparative Advantage: What Drives Cross Border Mergers and Acquisitions?

The theory of comparative advantage explains the upsurge of cross border mergers and acquisitions (CBMAs) in the era of reform led trade liberalization. This paper tests the theory of comparative advantage for CBMAs by firms belonging to a developing country, viz. India. Using count data the paper also shows that CBMAs have occurred in country and sector specific waves. This implies in developing countries, it is competition rather than comparative advantage which drives CBMAs. However, the paper finds that occurrence of the country specific wave and sector specific wave are negatively affected by favourable outward FDI policy.