SURVEY OF COUNTRY PRACTICES IN COMPILING BALANCE-SHEET STATISTICS

From a survey of the 150 members of the United Nations it appears that only one country could at present provide the full range of balance-sheet statistics called for in the United Nations guidelines on this topic. Seven countries could compile balance sheets confined to conventional types of assets and liabilities–excluding assets like consumer durables and mineral deposits. A further 31 countries presently publish some statistics on certain balance sheet items, but as the data have generally not been collected with a view to constructing national balance sheets they tend to be deficient for such purposes both in coverage and valuation. In other countries only rather trivial kinds of balance-sheet data are available, such as certain banking statistics collected by the central monetary authority for purposes of bank regulation.
A review of sources and methods shows that for financial assets and liabilities extensive use is made of company accounts and enterprise surveys. The estate multiplier method is used in several countries for measuring household assets and net worth. As regards producers' fixed assets, countries with centrally-planned economies generally take direct surveys of assets, while in countries with market economies the perpetual inventory method is preferred.
It is noted that many of the purposes for which balance-sheet statistics are used can be adequately served without constructing a complete set of accounts. To date balance-sheet statistics have therefore tended to be developed in a piecemeal fashion with priority going to those parts of the accounts whose uses for economic analysis are most obvious. Chief among these are statistics on the financial assets and liabilities of corporate enterprises and statistics on the stock of producers' fixed assets. These two areas also predominate in countries' plans for the future development of balance-sheet statistics.     

Private Sector Wealth: Quarterly Estimates for use in an Aggregate Model*

The paper presents some estimates of private-sector wealth in Australia for the 1958-75 period. Basically, we have attempted to consolidate the balance sheets of all sectors, except the government and the foreign sector. Different procedures have been used for the various components of private-sector wealth and estimates are presented for real assets of the household sector (dwellings, motor vehicles and consumer durables), for fixed assets and inventories of the business sector, and for government liabilities to the private sector. Broadly, the data indicate that over the 1958-75 period, private wealth grew faster than population but slower than output and business capital stock. Dwellings and motor vehicles were the fastest growing components of private wealth. Reflecting the rise in the share of foreign claims on businesses in Australia, the Australian claims on business assets increased at a slower rate than the increase in the business-capital stock.     

THE USES OF NATIONAL BALANCE SHEETS

The now urgent problem in the field is to translate into practice the theoretical agreement, slowly reached over the past two decades, on the need for and feasibility of sectorized national balance sheets.
The paper discusses the five main uses of national balance sheets, viz. (1) the study of the relations among assets and liabilities at one point of time in one country, particularly the position of financial institutions; (2) the analysis of changes in one country's financial structure between several balance sheet dates; (3) the comparison of balance sheet structure at one date among two or more countries; (4) the comparison of the financial development of several countries for at least two but usually more numerous balance sheet dates; and (5) the use of selected balance sheet items, e.g., reproducible tangible assets or liquid financial assets, in econometric models.
Examples are presented of the first three uses, viz. for (1) an eleven sector balance sheet matrix for the U.S. as of the end of 1962; for (2) an unsectored national balance sheet of the U.S. in 1900, 1912, 1929, 1939, 1945 and 1958; and for (3) a comparison of condensed unsectored national balance sheets for a dozen countries (USA, UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Norway, Italy, Japan, Israel, Mexico, India and the USSR) for a date in the neighborhood of 1960.     

THE STOCK OF CONSUMER DURABLES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: NEW ESTIMATES 1948–95

A modified version of the perpetual inventory model is applied to new data on consumers' expenditure in the United Kingdom to establish estimates of that part of personal sector wealth represented by the stock of consumer durables. Current and constant price estimates are provided at an aggregate and disaggregate level for the gross and net stock and for the imputed consumption income over the period 1948–95. The accuracy and consistency of the estimates are evaluated in the context of other approaches.     

MEASURING THE STOCK OF CONSUMER DURABLES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR EURO AREA SAVINGS RATIOS

The purpose of this article is to estimate the impact of capitalizing durable goods on the euro area household saving ratios and disposable incomes for the first time. The reason for this exercise is twofold. Firstly, it is generally accepted that individual households regard consumer durables as assets even though they are not treated as such in the System of National Accounts 1993 . Secondly, the issue is related to the definition of household saving ratios. For instance, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board publishes three household saving measures. The main difference between these saving ratios is that one is derived by treating expenditure on consumer durables as investments while the other two are compiled by considering them to be household final consumption expenditure. We find that the effect of capitalizing consumer durables on EA saving ratios is moderate. The impact is lower than it is in the U.S.     

INEQUALITY AND MOBILITY OF WEALTH IN SWEDEN 1983/184–1992/193

Using longitudinal data which include real estate wealth, financial assets as well as consumer durables, changes in the distribution of wealth in Sweden are related to major changes in asset prices and in incentives to hold various assets in the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. Our analysis of the mobility of wealth indicates that decile mobility is higher in Sweden than in the U.S., while the analysis of who is gaining and who is loosing shows results similar to those of previous studies.     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE WEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES

In this study, new estimates are presented of the size distribution of household wealth in the U.S. in 1969. Compared to previous studies, its major advance is the inclusion of all marketable or discretionary household assets and liabilities and their alignment with national balance sheet totals. Household disposable wealth (HDW) is defined as the sum of all marketable or fungible assets held by households less liabilities. The Gini coefficient for HDW is 0.72, the share held by the richest one percent of households is 31 percent, and the share held by the top five percent is 49 percent. There is, however, a large variation in the concentration of different household assets. The Gini coefficient is 0.30 for household durables and inventories, 0.69 for equity in owner-occupied housing, 0.94 for bonds and securities, and 0.98 for corporate stock. HDW is then divided into two mutually exclusive components. The first, called "life-cycle wealth," is defined as the sum of equity in owner-occupied housing, durables, household inventory, demand deposits and currency, and the cash value of life insurance and pensions less consumer debt. This form of wealth tends to be accumulated over the life-cycle for either consumption, liquidity, or retirement purposes. The second, called "capital wealth," is the sum of time and savings deposits, bonds and securities, corporate stock, business and investment real estate equity, and trust fund equity. Life-cycle wealth is substantially less concentrated than capital wealth. The Gini coefficient for it is 0.59, while that for capital wealth is 0.88. Moreover, among the lower wealth groups, over 80 percent of household wealth takes the form of life-cycle wealth, whereas among the top wealth groups the proportion is under 20 percent. The results suggest substantially different savings motivations between the two groups.     

ESTIMATES OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH INEQUALITY IN THE U.S., 1962–1983

The study has two major objectives. The first is to determine time trends in household wealth inequality in the U.S. over the 1962–83 period. Four concepts of wealth are analyzed: (i) total household wealth, defined as total household assets less liabilities; (ii) fungible wealth, defined as total household wealth less consumer durables and household inventories; (iii) financial wealth, defined as fungible wealth less equity in owner-occupied housing; and (iv) capital wealth, defined as financial wealth less currency, checking accounts, and time deposits. Relying on a variety of data sources, I find that wealth inequality remained relatively constant from about 1962 to 1973, fell sharply from about 1973 to about 1979, and then rose sharply between 1979 and 1983. Concentration in 1983 was greater than that in 1962 for financial and capital wealth but of similar magnitude for total and fungible wealth. The second, methodological in nature, is to analyze the effect on measured inequality of the alignment of raw survey data to national balance sheet totals. I find that the alignment process can significantly affect point estimates of household wealth distribution but does not generally affect the direction of inequality trends.     

金融资产公允价值变动的价值相关性研究

本文以2007—2008年沪深A股公司为研究样本,对我国新会计准则制度下交易性金融资产和可供出售金融资产分别记入利润表和资产负债表的公允价值变动进行了价值相关性检验。结果发现:交易性金融资产的公允价值变动损益的价值相关性显著高于可供出售金融资产的公允价值变动净额的价值相关性。     

存量视角下的中国金融中介比率测度:1992-2006年

对1992-2006年中国金融中介存量比率的实证分析发现,尽管非金融部门外部融资中银行信贷的高度垄断地位被逐渐削弱,但仍表现出高度依赖银行体系的贷款状况;而政府外部融资的来源则发生了结构性改变,市场中介融资已经成为政府融资最主要的来源,并由此导致金融中介在政府外部融资中的地位不降反升。此外,尽管非银行金融中介机构有了长足发展,但从相对资金融通的视角着眼,它还远远无法和银行抗衡。制约变迁约束下各部门经济行为的变化对融资机制有着重要影响。     

Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers

We analyse implications of financial sector dynamics for fiscal expenditure multipliers in recessionary conditions. A new stock-flow consistent model is developed in which a financial sector with four financial instruments is integrated with the real sector. The transmission of policy innovations occurs through balance sheet effects. Higher government expenditure increases aggregate demand in the economy. This reduces the perceived probability of default on financial institutions’ loans, increases asset valuations, and leads financial institutions to reduce interest rate spreads. Expectations of higher future wealth and a reduction in credit constraints supports consumption growth. Stronger balance sheets across institutions and lower interest rates increase investment. The interaction between growth and balance sheet valuations creates financial accelerator effects though its impact on financial sector risk-taking. Inflows of foreign savings can increase the multiplier further than would be the case in a closed economy constrained by domestic savings. The results show that fully modelling interactions between real and financial sectors generates fiscal multipliers higher than have been found for South Africa in other types of model.     

Inflation and Profits — The SVA and Depreciation Adjustments in the National Accounts*

This paper argues that the figures of profits contained in the national accounts are inappropriate in assessing the performance of industry. The error lies in deducting amounts for stock valuation adjustment from recorded profits. There is a discussion of the arguments usually proposed by national accountants for the deduction and it is concluded that these arguments are invalid. A suggestion is made that the amount of the stock valuation adjustment should be regarded as reflecting the delay in passing on costs of production, and this should be recorded in the national accounts as a timing difference between estimates of national expenditure (which exclude the stock valuation adjustment) and national product (where profits include the stock valuation adjustment).     

Comments on Articles by Eli Ginzberg and Manley Irwin and Kenneth B. Stanley

Financial institutions engage in financial innovation to increase profits. The resulting increases in consumer debt, however, make low income groups vulnerable to declines in income; households headed by women are particularly vulnerable. Consumers are disadvantaged given the asymmetry between business and consumer choices. Consumers use credit for many reasons including pecuniary emulation and supporting others, support that often falls to women. The paper examines the ratio of debt to financial assets, the ratio of debt to income, the ratio of dept payments to income, and the rate of bankruptcy as indicators of the fragility of household balance sheets.     

NATIONAL AND SECTOR BALANCE SHEETS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Although national and sector balance sheets have long been regarded as part of the national accounting framework, for a variety of reasons their compilation by official statisticians has been the exception rather than the rule. A programme of balance sheet work in the United Kingdom Central Statistical Office has recently been completed and the results published. The theoretical and practical problems arising in the course of this work are described and discussed. Summary results are given together with an interpretation of the main changes in the sectoral composition of national wealth between 1957 and 1975.     

PROBLEMS OF A CENSUS OF NATIONAL WEALTH

This paper is essentially a summary of the book Measuring the Nation's Wealth (Volume 29, Studies in Income and Wealth, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964), which is the report of study directed by the author. The purpose o f the study was to assess the problems and possibilities of conducting a national census of real wealth as a basis for continuing wealth and balance sheet estimates for the U.S. economy, by major sector.
It is stressed that the balance sheets and wealth estimates should be designed as a consistent part of an integrated system of national income accounts. Thus, valuation (at market prices and/or depreciated replacement costs), sectoring, and type-of-asset detail in the basic data and derived estimates should be compatible with the flow estimates contained in the economic accounts. Consistency of stock and flow estimates facilitates analysis of inter-relationships, and is helpful in the estimation process.
It is recommended that in the U.S. asset data by broad categories be collected as part of the recurring economic censuses and other reporting systems, but that detail on fixed reproducible assets (construction and equipment) at cost, by year or period of acquisition, be obtained from a small sample of respondents in each industry. The detail would be useful in its own right, and also permit revaluation of the assets by use of price indexes and depreciation rates to a current depreciated replacement cost basis. Where feasible, respondent estimates of market values would also be obtained.
The proposal is thus a compromise between the Japanese 1955 sample survey of assets, and the detailed wealth inventory of the U.S.S.R. which was begun in 1959. Preliminary work is now underway in the U.S. federal statistical agencies to expand collection of asset data, and to prepare comprehensive wealth estimates in the framework of the national income accounts.     

CURRENT COST ACCOUNTING: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEFINITION AND MEASUREMENT OF CORPORATE INCOME

This paper is in 7 sections. Section 1 gives as background a chronological account of the steps taken in the United Kingdom, from 1974 to late 1977, towards the development of a new system of accounting in company reports which would allow for the effect of changing costs and prices on the measurement of profit and of capital employed in the business. Section 2 discusses the main features of the system, known as current cost accounting, as it is seen in the United Kingdom. Section 3 surveys the relationship between current cost accounting and the national income and expenditure statistics, and the likely implications of the introduction of current cost accounting upon the quality of macro-economic statistics, including estimates of national and sector balance sheets. Section 4 describes some of the problems of implementing current cost accounting, particularly in special situations, and outlines the solutions which were proposed in the "Exposure Draft" published in 1976 by the accountancy profession in the United Kingdom. Section 5 considers the definition of distributable profit in relation to the need to maintain capital, considering the concept of gain, the system of valuing assets and liabilities, and the enterprise's capacity to take on additional debt as a means of financing its assets. Section 6 briefly surveys the implications for taxation, price control and price setting. Section 7 concludes by surveying the scene at the end of 1977 and by looking at likely future developments.     

Consumption expenditure on durables in Barbados 1960–82

In recent times there have been constant efforts to control the level of consumer spending on durables in Barbados. The main reason for this was to direct the scarce foreign exchange earnings into the ‘productive’ sectors. This paper presents a model of consumer expenditure on durables in Barbados. In the model relative prices, income, hire-purchase terms, credit and the ratio of durable consumption to income have significant effects on expenditure on durables. This leads us to accept that both fiscal and monetary policy play a serious role in such expenditure.     

Comparing approaches to valuing sectoral net investments

In the literature of comprehensive national accounts, national net investments are used to indicate dynamic welfare improvement in an economy. A well-known approach associates national net investments with the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets in an economy. Following this capital stock approach, sectoral net investments can be defined as the shadow value of change in stock of capital assets owned by a sector in an economy. An alternative approach is based on future commodity flows to a sector. This commodity flow approach associates sectoral net investments with the present value of changes in future commodity flows to a sector. In the present paper, I compare these two approaches and prove that they coincide with each other only if the future commodity flows to the sector can be attributed to current stock of capital assets in the sector alone. In empirical studies, commodity flow approach can be a better alternative if the purpose is to estimate the contributions to national net investments of a recipient of future cash flows.     

A SYNTHETIC ESTIMATE OF THE NATIONAL WEALTH OF JAPAN 1885–1973*

This article present estimates, in current prices, of the national wealth of Japan and of about a dozen components for twelve benchmark dates between 1885 and 1973, the distance ranging, with one exception, from five to twelve years. The estimates are derived by a combination of (a) Ohkawa's perpetual inventory estimates of reproducible fixed assets for the period from 1885 to 1940 and Economic Planning Agency censuses for 1950 to 1965, roughly extrapolated to 1973; with (b) estimates of other components of national wealth (land, inventories, consumer durables and net foreign assets) taken for the pre-war period chiefly from census-type data and derived for the postwar period from miscellaneous, mainly official, sources. As in most countries the current value of Japan's national wealth increased until World War II considerably more slowly than its national product, which expanded with extraordinary rapidity. In the postwar period, however, the ratio showed a slight upward trend reaching by 1973 fully 3 1/2. The ratio of all reproducible assets to national product showed a similar pattern at a lower level, reaching 2 1/2 in 1973. In contrast the ratio of so-called productive assets (non-residential buildings, equipment and inventories) failed to show a definite secular trend remaining between 1.5 and 2.2 at all but one benchmark date. Changes in the structure of national wealth over the past century were pronounced, but very different before and after World War II. Up to the 1940's, the share of land declined sharply from about one-half to less than one-fourth, to the benefit primarily of producer durables and non-residential structures. In the last quarter of a century, in contrast, the extraordinary rise in urban land prices brought the share of land in national wealth back to one-third (though the share of agricultural land continued to decline rapidly), while that of producer and consumer durables continued to increase.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR ANALYSING CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS

It is only within the last two years that the published United Kingdom accounts have been extended to include sector financial accounts; their use for market analysis is, therefore, still in its infancy. The sectors and sub-sectors distinguished in the financial accounts agree very closely with those recommended by the Working Group on Financial Statistics of the Conference of European Statisticians. A major difference is that in the United Kingdom accounts particular emphasis is placed on the distinction between the public sector and the private sector. For this purpose the public sector consists not only of general government but also includes public corporations (that is, public non-financial corporate enterprises). The classification of assets and liabilities is based on a general list which is also similar to that developed by the Conference of European Statisticians. Because of the large capital formation of public corporations and local authorities, the public sector is normally a substantial borrower from the pirvate sector, although its borrowing requirements fluctuate considerably from quarter to quarter because of the uneven incidence of tax receipts. The personal sector provides about one-third of the total saving of the economy, much of which is in the form of contractual saving—through life assurance and superannuation funds and the repayment of house purchase loans. No direct information is available about transactions in stocks and shares by the personal sector, but it is estimated that the sector is a very large seller of securities and in recent years its sales have amounted to £700 million a year. One factor which is important in the analysis of financial accounts and which is not shown specifically as part of the system is the rate of interest. The proportion of personal saving going into the different forms of short term assets has tended to vary according to the relative rate of interest received. The rate of interest also affects the pattern of borrowing by public authorities. The United Kingdom prepares short term forecasts of national income and of the balance of payments, and also forecasts of the borrowing requirement of the public sector and of the central government in particular. For internal purposes, forecasts are made of the various ways in which the government is expected to finance its borrowing requirement. These forecasts provide a useful framework for considering monetary prospects and are particularly important for showing the relation between the forecasts of the balance of payments and of government borrowing from domestic sources, especially from the banks.