农业补贴对农村金融市场的“挤出效应”——理论分析与实证检验

针对我国农村金融机构年贷款增长率远低于政府农业年度补贴增长率的现实,本文构建一个理论分析框架,并基于农户调研数据进行实证分析。研究发现,农业补贴依次对非正规金融市场和正规金融市场形成挤出效应;政府提高贷款利息虽可压缩非正规金融市场的生存空间,但却会引致农户福利流失;非挂钩性农业补贴会强化(弱化)非正规金融市场(正规金融市场)的挤出效应。因而,政府不应单一地寄希望于制度创新,而应更多地关注农业补贴对农户借贷决策行为的影响。     

Financial liberalisation,corporate governance and the efficiency of firms in Indian manufacturing

In this paper, we argue that the way in which a firm is financed will affect its efficiency. Firms obtaining finance from the government are likely to be less efficient than firms obtaining finance from banks or foreign financial institutions (FFIs). We analyse these issues by estimating a stochastic frontier for firms in seven manufacturing industries in India where these differences have been reinforced by financial de-regulation. Our results indicate that the government is generally less effective in monitoring the firms that it lends to than either banks or Indian Financial Institutions (IFIs), but neither of these institutions is particularly efficient either. Though the impact of FFIs on firm efficiency is insignificant, foreign ownership has a positive impact in a majority of the industries. Finally, likelihood ratio tests confirm that while the government and IFIs have a similar impact on firm efficiency, banks are quite distinct in a majority of industries.     

区域金融发展如何影响农业信贷与农民创业*——基于CHFS的实证研究

本文利用2013年和2015年中国家庭金融调查微观数据，结合中国银保监会披露的金融许可证注册信息的网点分布情况，实证分析区域金融发展对农户增收创业的作用，以及不同类型金融机构和区域金融市场结构差异对以上作用的影响。研究发现：（1）区域内银行网点数量的增加会显著降低农业正规信贷约束和农户参与民间借贷的概率，推动农户创业；（2）不同金融机构的信贷行为存在显著差异，农商行等新型农村金融机构可以有效克服农信社的内部治理缺陷，改善支农服务；（3）区域银行集中程度越高，农商行等新型农村金融机构和大型国有银行的支农效果越弱，两者在高集中度地区难以发挥积极作用。由此可见，仅仅依靠惠农政策或农信社改制来推动农民增收创业缺乏效力，应在建设竞争有序的区域金融市场的基础上鼓励金融机构改善支农服务。     

我国三十年来农村地区金融改革的逻辑轨迹——基于新比较经济学分析框架的研究

文章基于新比较经济学的分析框架,从正规金融和非正规金融两个方面来论述三十年来中国农村地区金融改革的基本逻辑。研究认为,农村金融发展滞后于农村经济发展的原因是政府对农村金融的控制方式不尽合理。文章充分肯定了国家2005年至今的改革措施,认为新型金融机构的引进将成为建立完善的农村金融体系的契机。     

Financial development,financial liberalization and social capital

The relationship between financial liberalization policies and financial development is controversial. The impact of these policies differs greatly across countries. In the literature, the quality of formal institutions has been identified as an important source of this heterogeneity, as countries with a weak institutional environment generally fail to benefit from financial liberalization. Using panel data covering 82 countries for the period 1973–2008, we find evidence that social capital may substitute for formal institutions as a prerequisite for effective financial liberalization policies. In particular, we find that during the post Washington-consensus period countries with a high prevailing level of social capital can ensure that financial liberalization positively influences financial development, despite the poor quality of their formal institutions.     

我国农村正规金融与非正规金融效率分析

高效率的金融制度对经济发展提供强有力的资金支持,可以提高经济的总体竞争力,促进经济增长。对农村信用社、农业银行、农业发展银行和邮政储蓄银行等正规金融机构和村镇银行、小额贷款公司等非正规金融组织的效率进行调查,从资金配置效率、适应性效率和运行效率方面进行分析,结果显示：正规金融制度的效率偏低,非正规金融组织的效率偏高;两种金融制度的效率有各自的空间,在规模和范围较小时,非正规金融制度效率更高,而超出一定的发展范围和规模,正规金融制度的优越性则进一步凸显。     

正规金融与非正规金融合作会提高农户期望收益吗?——理论分析和实证检验

文章区分三种不同的市场结构从理论上分析了农户、正规金融机构和非正规金融机构三个主体的决策行为和期望收益,认为只有在正规金融部门与非正规金融部门共存且实现合作的市场中,农户的融资需求才能得到有效满足,农户的期望收益才能最大化。文章还利用遍布我国东、中、西部地区近10 000家农户的实地调研数据进行实证检验,为建立正规金融与非正规金融间的合作机制提供了经验证据。     

农村金融资源配置效率的伦理思考

农村金融资源配置效率可以从农村金融资源的供给充足率、需求的满足度、供需的平衡度进行考量。我国农村金融资源配置效率不高的原因主要是在这个市场上出现了农民的伦理博弈、制度的伦理排斥、机构的道德逆选择等一系列伦理问题,严重影响了农村金融市场效率的提高。因此,应该以诚信为核心,引导农民市场行为"伦理化";以平等为依据,进一步落实农村金融制度"规范化";以公平为准绳,保证农村金融机构的信贷目标"公正化",从根本上解决农村金融市场低效问题,创建一个公平、互信、充满活力的农村金融市场。     

Individual values and household finances

We create individual cultural values measures for households and show that this is an important determinant of their financial behaviour. To date, personal cultural values have only been indirectly measured through religion and trust. But these are, at best, an approximation of true cultural values. Applying a holistic framework from the World Values Survey (WVS), we create individual measures of cultural values, and show that the self-expression values of this framework are positively associated with households’ financial decisions. Examining the individual cultural values that make up the WVS model, we further show that happiness, trust, and playing an active role in society, are individually important determinants of household financial decision-making. Our study shows that cultural values can be brought from a generalized national level to the individual level in order to improve our understanding of household financial decision-making.     

论化解农村金融排斥的创新模式 ——林业碳汇交易引导资金回流农村的实证分析

目前,农村金融排斥已十分严重,极大地影响着农村经济发展,主要原因是政府出台的化解政策无法解决金融机构开展农村金融服务与实现利润最大化目标的矛盾。本文认为,发展林业碳汇交易是化解农村金融排斥的创新模式,能够引导资金回流农村,促进金融机构在支持林业碳汇交易的同时实现自身商业化可持续发展,并以广西珠江流域再造林林业碳汇项目为案例,对其化解农村金融排斥的成效进行了实证检验。开展林业碳汇交易顺应绿色环保潮流,具有持续化解农村金融排斥的作用。政府应大力促进林业碳汇交易发展。     

道德和经济利益：双重约束下的农户质量控制行为研究

社会转型是一场复杂的制度变迁过程。经济制度转变包括正式制度约束和非正式制度约束的改变。新制度经济学认为,正式制度约束在制度形成和制度变迁中固然起主导作用,但道德文化、社会习俗等非正式制度约束在制度演进中的巨大影响亦不容忽视。本文主要从制度变迁角度阐述农户对道德与经济利益取舍时关于农产品质量控制行为的内在机理和互动关系,本文强调要大力发展和引入农民合作经济组织,依靠农户间互相监督作用;其次,要加强诚信道德体系建设和诚信道德教育;同时,还要建立和完善以农户为主体的农产品质量追溯体系;最后,需要加强对农产品销售中介组织的监管力度,以减少因中间流通环节的不道德行为而产生的农产品质量控制问题。     

The not so dark side of trust: Does trust increase the size of the shadow economy?

This paper reports a negative relationship between the size of the shadow economy and generalized trust, in a sample of countries, both developed and developing. That relationship is robust to controlling for a large set of economic, policy, and institutional variables, to changing the estimate of the shadow economy and the estimation period, and to controlling for endogeneity. It is independent from trust in institutions and from income inequality, and is mainly present in the sample of developing countries. Those findings suggest that the tax compliance effect of trust dominates its role as a substitute for the formal legal system.     

The nexus of economic and institutional evolution

The current state of the development economics literature ascribes an indisputable central role to institutions. This paper presents a formal model of institutional evolution that is based on the dynamic interactions between formal and informal institutions and economic development; the main features of the model is consistent with the fundamental theories that shed light to institutional evolution, namely the collective action and transaction cost theories, as well as dialectics. As informal institutional quality accumulates like technological know-how, while the level of formal institutional quality is chosen by the government to maximize welfare, subject to the economic and political costs. The solution of the model yields a punctuated trajectory of formal institutional evolution. Simulations reveal that the extent of diversity in informal institutional quality across a country delays formal institutional reforms. We also observe that, both the optimal quality of formal institutions and welfare are higher the more homogeneous is the country with respect to its informal institutions or the cultural attributes.     

新型农村金融机构改革可行吗?——基于监督效率视角的分析

本文基于监督机制建立了借款人融资条件决定的道德风险模型,比较分析了各类新型农村金融机构的监督效率及其对农村融资状况的影响。结果表明:现有商业银行缺乏明显的监督比较优势,由其组建的村镇银行和贷款公司将难以长期持续经营;小额贷款公司因需要全部自有资本运营,对民营资本监督效率提出了过高要求而难以在农村地区普遍设立;资金互助社从农户生产经营中内生出来能有效实施相互监督和合同互联,与专业合作社或龙头公司联合发展时可显著改善农村融资状况。当前以商业银行为主导的农村金融增量改革,体现了政府隐性存款担保下国家对于民营资本金融风险的过度防范,以及商业银行为了经营特许权价值作出短期选择的双重契合。进一步的改革需要逐步从国家外生主导模式向民间内生成长模式转变,充分发挥民营资本和各类新型农村经济组织的作用。     

我国农村金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响

大多数研究表明,中国整体金融发展显著扩大了城乡收入差距,但它们均未从农村金融发展的视角对城乡收入差距进行研究.本文从农村自身经济金融发展层面出发运用1978-2004年的相关数据,分析了农村金融发展与城乡收入差距之间的关系,结果显示:农村金融发展扩大了城乡收入差距,究其原因主要是农村资金的不断外流和非正规金融的不规范发展,加剧了城乡收入差距的扩大.现实的出路是遏制农村资金外流,提供更多的农村正规金融资源;规范非正规金融发展.     

Trade,trust and the rule of law

Well-functioning institutions, both formal (i.e. rule of law) and informal (i.e. trust), facilitate economic exchange. To investigate the nature of the relationship between formal and informal institutions, we analyze bilateral trade patterns in a sample of 16 European countries between 1996–2009. Our results show that trust and rule of law are substitutes, as the positive effect of trust on trade is conditional on the quality of the rule of law. When the rule of law of the importing country increases relative to that of the exporter, the effect of trust on trade decreases. The decline in the effect of trust on trade is less for importers than for exporters, a result that can be attributed to the risk of non-payment that exporters run.     

居民对中、外资金融机构的比较评价研究——来自中国九个城市的证据

Between domestic financial institutions and foreign or joint venture ones in China, which ones do Chinese people give better assessment to? And what factors affect those comparative assessments? With a household survey in nine cities in China in 2006, we find that China’s domestic financial institutions are considered better than foreign or joint venture ones in terms of financial products, communication with investors, security and prudence, operation standardization and service attitudes. When taken into account the endogeneity of people’s trust on government regulation agencies, empirical results show that people’s more attention to returns or the more trust on government regulation agencies leads to their better assessments on domestic financial institutions than foreign or joint venture ones. The policy implications are: Chinese governments have to take measures to improve residents’ trust in governmental regulation and create a fair competition environment for domestic and foreign financial institutions in China. Domestic and foreign financial institutions make efforts to develop a higher rate-of-return and attractive financial products to service more customers.     

Import to invest: Impact of cultural goods on cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Existing studies have demonstrated the necessities of formal institutions and negativity of cultural distance in international investments. Surprisingly, China’s exponential increase of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and its low-quality institutions and distinct cultural norms contradict these studies. This paper aims to tackle this puzzle by examining the role of cultural imports in cross-border M&As. Our empirical evidence suggests that the trade of cultural goods significantly increases the volume and realized economic gains of M&As from importing to exporting countries. Our results are robust to alternative measures and an instrumental variable approach. On exploring potential channels, we find that imported cultural goods could drive cultural convergence between countries and also mitigate the adverse effect of cultural distance on merger outcomes. We further show that cultural imports could help firms in overcoming contractual barriers at target countries. This paper provides practical implications for cross-border investments in the current world with intensified cultural conflicts.     

社会资本影响农村中小企业正规信贷可得性的实证分析——基于福建省350个样本的调查

针对我国农村中小企业正规信贷融资难的问题,本文基于2008年福建省农村350家中小企业的调查数据,采用Logistic回归模型,对企业主社会资本对农村中小企业正规信贷可得性的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:网顶、熟人信任、贷款认知性3个因子对农村中小企业正规信贷可得性具有显著的正向影响;普遍信任、规范2个因子对农村中小企业正规信贷可得性具有显著的负向影响;网络规模、特殊信任2个因子对农村中小企业正规信贷可得性没有显著影响。     

农村民间金融组织监管制度的创新路径

我国农村民间金融组织的广泛存在已是不争的事实,而现有相关法律法规对其监管却比较滞后,主要原因在于国家对民间金融力量的忽视与不信任.因此,应当在政府转变观念、承认民间力量重要作用的前提下,从法律法规、金融市场准入和退出制度、存款保险制度、金融产权制度、利率市场化、建立行业协会等方面入手构建适合农村民间金融组织发展的监管体系.