内在性问题三种研究范式的比较与分析

在西方主流经济学中,内在性是被计入生产价格的成本的。根据研究领域的不同,可以把内在性问题的相关理论归纳为三种范式:市场行为的内在性、政府行为的内在性及个体行为的内在性。尽管这三种范式是由不同的学者基于不同的研究在不同的领域发展的,但作为一种理论分析工具,有一些本质的内容是一致的:内在性是由行为人承担的额外成本或收益,它在本质上是一个产权界定的问题,信息的不完全是其产生的主要原因。     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

论主流经济学的危机与革命

古典经济学家提出了劳动价值论,并认为劳动是商品,他们的认识反映了当时社会的实际,推动了历史的进步.但是,在"资本集中和土地私有"以后他们的认识就与现实相矛盾了,主流经济学家们因为没能解决当时提出的问题而陷入了危机.马克思证明了劳动二重性理论,发展了劳动价值论,他提出了劳动力商品范畴,证明了剩余价值理论,引发了经济学的革命,从而解决了那个时代提出的问题,推动了历史的进步.在社会主义市场经济中,主流经济学家因为无法说明劳动者的工资和利息收入问题而再次陷入了危机,这可能预示了经济学革命的再次来临.作者认为,只有通过理论革命,证明劳动本身具有价值,证明资本收入具有劳动收入的性质才能解决现实社会提出的问题.     

Whether to attack a terrorist's resource stock today or tomorrow

A terrorist defends an asset which grows from the first to the second period and is attacked. With large asset growth, the terrorist's first period outcome is low caused by a large attack. With no expenditure constraint, the terrorist's total outcome is positive. With equal attack and defense inefficiencies, when the terrorist as defender requires his first period outcome to be positive, the attacker eliminates the asset in the first period when asset growth multiplied with the square roots of the terrorist's and attacker's discount parameters exceed . This gives maximum conflict in the first period. Growth and the two discount parameters are strategic complements. The range for the attack inefficiency divided by defense inefficiency, which causes negative first period outcome for the terrorist, increases with asset growth. The attacker refrains from asset elimination in the first period due to strength (weakness) if the ratio is below (above) the range.     

The future of the global economy

Although world growth is continuous throughout history, the balance of power is constantly shifting from one nation to another. From Egypt to Ancient Greece and Rome, all the way through modern western civilization, different nations struggle for power through various ways such as: war, science and technology, arts, commerce, economical transactions, and other forms of interaction.In this article we use the assumption that global activity, as measured by real GDP, follows the well known s-curve of natural growth. Furthermore in order to model the relative power of specific regions, namely Western Countries, China and the rest of the world, we use the Logistic Substitution method developed by Nakicenovic and Marchetti. Estimates from the derived models are tested against actual data and linked to real historical events where appropriate.The bottom line of these forecasts is that World GDP will continue to rise in the next years, and will probably reach its peak growth by the end of the next decade. China's emergence as a superpower is verified and could have been predicted even as way back as 1985 by using the Logistic Substitution method. If the current trend persists it is expected to more than double its percentage contribution to the World's gross domestic product during the next two decades and exceed Western Countries' aggregated GDP by 2034 at a level of almost 40%. By the year 2024 though China's economy is expected to enter the substitution phase, as our world will most likely experience the emergence of a new “superpower” that will take its place, and once more will change the international landscape as we know it today.     

Catching Growth Determinants with the Adaptive Lasso

Abstract. This paper uses the adaptive Lasso estimator to determine variables important for economic growth. The adaptive Lasso estimator is a computationally very efficient procedure that simultaneously performs model selection and parameter estimation. The computational cost of this method is negligibly small compared with standard approaches in the growth regressions literature. We apply this method for a regional dataset for the European Union covering the 255 NUTS2 regions in the 27 member states over the period 1995–2005. The results suggest that initial GDP per capita (with an implied convergence speed of about 1.5% per annum), human capital (proxied by the shares of highly and medium educated in the working age population), structural labor market characteristics (the initial unemployment rate and the initial activity rate of the low educated) as well as being a capital region are important for economic growth.     

面向知识经济时代的国家创新体系

随着知识经济时代的来临，发达国家的国家创新系统研究已经从早期的强调技术创新转移到既重视技术创新、又关注知识在经济中的作用，即重视知识的生产、储存、转移、扩散和应用。本文介绍了我国面向知识经济时代的国家创新体系的结构、功能和关键概念。     

Determinants of contract duration in outsourced services in the defense sector

In this article we analyze the contract duration using Transaction Cost Theory with a sample of 283 outsourced services in the Spanish Army during the period 2009–2014.The analysis results show that the greater the specificity of the service, the greater the duration of the contract. In addition, it is obtained that the greater the uncertainty about the behaviour of the provider, the lower the duration of the agreement. These results are consistent with existing literature and empirical works.

However, in the case of external uncertainty and incompleteness of the contract, they do not affect the contract duration. This may be because less complex services for shorter terms can be specified better and are less affected by external circumstances. Therefore, the uncertainty should be decomposed and analyzed according to their sources.     

Socialism,Liberalism and Inequality: The Colonial Economics of the Saint-Simonians in 19th-Century Algeria

This article examines the foundations of the colonial economics of the Saint-Simonians that were developed in Algeria after the French invasion in 1830. Saint-Simonian colonial economics may be seen as a leading contributor to the development of French orientalism. This article illustrates the ambiguous position of Saint-Simonian economics in the colonial project, especially in relation to the role of equality. According to the Saint-Simonians, collective socialism was the best economic system for Algeria. This article notes, however, the contradiction inherent in the Saint-Simonians' project with regard to the racial argument they used to justify their position.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

The enfranchisement of women and the welfare state

We offer a rationale for the decision to extend the franchise to women within a politico-economic model where men are richer than women, women display a higher preference for public goods, and women's disenfranchisement carries a societal cost. Men and women are matched within households which are the center of the decision process. We derive the optimal tax rate under two alternative regimes: a males-only enfranchisement regime and a universal enfranchisement regime. The latter is associated with a higher tax rate but, as industrialization raises the reward to intellectual labor relative to physical labor, women's relative wage increases, thus decreasing the difference between the tax rates. When the cost of disenfranchisement becomes higher than the cost of the higher tax rate which applies under universal enfranchisement, the male median voter is better off extending the franchise to women. A consequent expansion of the size of government is only to be expected in societies with a relatively high cost of disenfranchisement.We empirically test the implications of the model over the 1870–1930 period. We proxy the gender wage gap with the level of per capita income and the cost of disenfranchisement with the presence of catholicism, which is associated with a more traditional view of women's role and thus a lower cost. The gender gap in the preferences for public goods is proxied by the availability of divorce, which implies marital instability and a more vulnerable economic position for women. Consistently with the model's predictions, women's suffrage is correlated positively with per capita income and negatively with the presence of catholicism and the availability of divorce, while women's suffrage increases the size of government only in non-catholic countries.     

信托税收法律制度研究

随着《中华人民共和国信托法》的颁布实施,信托制度在我国得以以立法的形式予以确立。信托制度在我国社会经济发展中将起到越来越重要的作用。信托税制在信托制度中占据重要的地位,我国在这一方面还没有明确的法律规制。作者借鉴英美等发达资本主义国家成熟的信托税收理论,并结合国内信托法和税法的实际情况对信托税收法律制度进行一定的探讨。     

Personhood and Human Richness: Good and Well-Being in the Capability Approach and Beyond

This paper aims at developing the Capability Approach's (CA) underlying philosophical anthropology and ethics by focusing on the work of its major exponents, Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum. I first discuss CA's critique of happiness as subjective well-being and defend the idea of ‘flourishing’ which ultimately refers to the Aristotelian concept of eudaimonia. I then focus on the notions of ‘good’ and ‘well-being’ and address the problem of the compatibility between a substantive notion of the Good (expressed through universal moral values) and individual preferences. I thus tackle the issue of adaptive preferences (which is investigated both from a methodological and an ethical perspective) and suggest that the process of adaptation should be thought in the dynamic frame of the constitution of the self. Therefore, in the second half of the paper I investigate the CA's idea of personhood and focus on some important assumptions behind its underlying anthropological model – above all the notion of ‘human richness’. As a result, I first point out the dynamic dimension of personhood, according to which individuals are ‘becoming themselves’ in search of self-realisation and construction of their identities. Second, I highlight its relational dimension, according to which every one is the expression of the anthropological richness and at the same time represents the highest possibility of richness for every other one.     

从后殖民角度论阿莱克西《保留地布鲁斯》中的文化融合

谢尔曼·阿莱克西（Sherman Alexie）是最卓越的当代美国印第安裔作家之一。他积极探索多元文化背景下美国印第安人的出路与发展。作家的成长经历,身份特征与创作理念都充分体现了杂和的特征。音乐是文化的媒介与符号,作品中的乐组成员和音乐形式融合了各种文化特色。宗教与相生相伴,阿莱克西坚持宗教殖民的批判立场,并把天主教义与传统部落信条融合在作品中。通过表现认同与融合,印地安人才能在美国主流社会当中找到自己的位置,从而探求新的印地安生存模式。     

How Love Evolved from Sex and Gave Birth to Intelligence and Human Nature

This article argues that emotional attachment drive has shaped the evolution of human intelligence, interpersonal relationships and culture. The first section is about the evolution of social bonds and their role in the rise of intelligence. At the outset, I present evidence that desire for emotional closeness to others is a primary human instinct. Recent discoveries in neurobiology are then incorporated into a summary of the evolution of brain systems that activate emotional attachments and the vital role of parental nurture in the development of offspring's social behavior and capacity to cope with stress. The evolution of maternal behavior is discussed as a particularly important event enabling expansion of brain size and complexity and initiating a pattern of mutually enhancing co-evolution between social complexity and intelligence leading ultimately to the modern human brain. The second section examines how emotional attachment drive may have contributed to the evolution of prominent aspects of human nature and culture. It is hypothesized that the evolution of unique human mental abilities provided vast new outlets for and means of expressing emotional attachment leading to much closer and more diverse interpersonal relationships and the rise and transmission of culture. These developments were very likely important for increasing the adaptive advantages and decreasing the dangers of high intelligence. Emotional bonding between human sex partners was probably selected for because the slow maturation, complex cognitive and psychological development and culture acquisition needs of children required more parental attention for much longer periods compared to offspring of other primate species. Integration of attachment motivation and high intelligence is hypothesized to have been important in the selection of hominid species that were the immediate ancestors of modern humans.     

Structural Change And Innovation In U.S. Telecommunications

This paper reexamines broadly. from the standpoint of innovation, the arguments for vertical integration in the U.S. telecommunications industry in light of structural change since the breakup of the Bell System. While basic and applied research became the casualty of the 1984 breakup and the 1995 AT&T split, there is no evidence that the pace of innovative activity and productivity has slowed. Evidence from R&D and patent data suggests some acceleration of innovative activity. However. the service segment of the industry ceased to be the center of technological innovation. The source of future innovation seems to lie in the telecommunications and Internet equipment firms and independent software firms. The emergence of the competitive stand-alone software industry, combined with a trend towards open operating systems and customer demand for greater flexibility, and growing substitution of technology alliances for in-house R&D appear to have undermined the case for vertical integration in the telecommunications industry. From the standpoint of business strategy, the question of whether a firm like AT&T, notwithstanding its huge investments in cable facilities, can develop distinctive and sustainable capabilities through horizontal expansion and ubiquity and one-stopshopping marketing alone remains open.     

LES DÉTERMINANTS DE LA PERFORMANCE DE REMBOURSEMENT DES MICROCRÉDITS EN TUNISIE

Our work is part of the quest for sustainability of MFIs. To ensure sustainability, an MFI must be effective. It must, among others, face many risks and in particular the default risk. A question arises: what are the determinants of portfolio quality of MFIs? In other words, what are the determinants that influence delays in payment of MFIs? The interest of this research is twofold. The first is practical: knowing the importance of performance measures of microcredit as a precondition for the efficiency and financial performance of MFIs, this study identified determinants of the reimbursement rate in an MFI of Tunisia. It may even give an evidence for banks to intervene on the market of micro credit. The second is methodological: to find the determinants of reimbursement behaviour in MFIs, a binary logistic regression is used, while differing in explanatory variables between key variables and moderators’ ones, which was not met previously in the literature. The results showed that among the variables related to the characteristics of the loan, the loan amount and the borrower's experience with the MFI affect the rate of reimbursement. The credit increases the likelihood of default. Unlike, when borrower's experience with the MFI increases, the risk of default decreases. A relationship between the industry and the repayment rate has not been verified. For variables related to the characteristics of the borrower, age, educational level and marital status of the borrower appear to affect the relationship between the risk of default and the amount of credit. The effect of the credit amount on the default risk decreases as age and level of education increases. In addition, this effect is more important for married compared to the unmarried. For gender, we found that the effect of maturity on the risk of default is not the same for men or women borrowers. It seems that when the maturity increases, men provide reimbursement rates lower than women.     

The causal relationship between equipment investment and infrastructures on economic growth in China

There is agreement in the literature on economic growth concerning the transitory effects of capital accumulation on the process of economic development. However, controversy arises if this effect is permanent. In this sense, the key point is the embodied technological progress and whether supply factors predominate among the determinants of capital accumulation. Only in this case should expect long-run effects of capital accumulation on economic growth. Inspired by this idea, I focus the study on two elements accounting for economic development—equipment investment and productive infrastructure and I also analyze the type of the empirical relationship that exists between them. The results indicate that equipment investment and infrastructures have played a significant role in accounting for long-run growth in China. However, I do not find empirical evidence supporting any relationship between the two types of investment. In addition, I find that foreign trade has stimulated output and equipment investment in the long run. Finally, it is found that innovation activities encourage equipment investment in the long run.