基于ECM模型的中国通货膨胀成因分析

中国目前又面临着新一轮的通货膨胀,掌握通货膨胀的原因是有效治理通货膨胀的前提。利用一个误差修正模型（ECM）对中国通胀的原因进行实证研究结果表明,粮食价格上涨、工业品价格上涨、国际大宗商品价格上涨和货币供给的增加都是影响中国通货膨胀的因素。     

中国通货膨胀水平与通货膨胀不确定性关系:分位数回归

基于1983.1—2008.11中国CPI数据,本文应用分位数回归模型检验关于通货膨胀与通货膨胀不确定性之间关系的两个理论假说。研究结果发现,最小二乘法(OLS)与分位数回归方法均支持Friedman-Ball假说、Cukierman-Meltzer假说。而且进一步发现,通货膨胀水平对处于不同分位的通货膨胀不确定性有非对称性影响,影响程度从低分位点到高分位点逐渐上升,因此OLS回归在低分位点高估、而在高分位点则低估了通货膨胀水平对通货膨胀不确定性的作用。而且通货膨胀不确定性对通货膨胀水平的影响同样具有类似特征。本文运用分位数回归以及运用两种不同方法对通货膨胀不确定性进行度量,不但较为完整地刻画了通货膨胀与通货膨胀不确定性之间的关系,而且为检验两者关系提供了稳健性证据。     

货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于分位数回归方法

使用1985—2011年的数据,运用单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系检验以及建立分位数回归模型,对中国货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明：货币供应、经济增长均会导致通货膨胀,适度的通货膨胀会促进经济增长,二者呈双向因果关系。货币供应和经济增长对通货膨胀的影响都具有一定的时滞性。在控制其他变量不变的情况下,经济增长对通货膨胀的影响比货币供应要大。当通货膨胀水平较低时,经济增长和货币供应对通货膨胀的影响较小,当通货膨胀处于较高水平时,货币供给对通货膨胀的影响相对较大。     

中国垄断行业收入分配效应的实证研究

近年来,中国垄断性行业的高收入问题受到广泛关注,即使同为工业企业,同"工"不同酬的现象也普遍存在,为研究行业垄断对居民收入的分配效应,本文采用因子分析法对影响职工平均工资的各种因素进行估计,从而得出行政垄断对职工平均工资差距的相对贡献度;为研究行政垄断对居民收入分配的合理性,又采用Oaxaca-Blinder分解法对考虑职工受教育程度和不考虑职工受教育程度两种情况进行了相关分析。研究结果表明:在影响平均工资的众多因素中,行政垄断程度对平均工资的影响程度最大,而受教育程度对垄断性行业与竞争性行业间的收入差距并没有太大的解释力,垄断性行业与竞争性行业间的收入差距是不合理的。     

中国长期、短期通货膨胀不确定性与通货膨胀的关系

基于中国1983年1月-2008年3月的月度CPI数据,本文应用马尔可夫机制转换-不可观测成分模型分离出长期和短期的通货膨胀不确定性,继而检验了不同期限的通货膨胀不确定性与通货膨胀水平之间的关系,由此得出的结论为:(1)马尔可夫机制转换-不可观测成分模型更好地拟合了中国通货膨胀动态过程;(2)长期通货膨胀不确定性和短期通货膨胀不确定性均与通货膨胀水平有正向的关系,然而通货膨胀对前者的影响更大。(3)2008年以来短期通货膨胀不确定性小幅增加以及长期通货膨胀不确定性突然上升的态势,预示公众对未来长期价格水平的预期存在着极大的不确定性。而通货膨胀具有社会成本往往是因为较高的通货膨胀与较高的长期通货膨胀不确定性紧密相关,因此这值得货币当局重点关注。     

中国通货膨胀及其波动性关系的实证研究

本文利用GARCH模型生成中国通货膨胀波动性的衡量指标,并实证分析1983年1月至2010年4月中国的通货膨胀与通货膨胀波动性之间的关系。结果表明:在中国,通货膨胀率是通货膨胀波动性的Granger原因,通货膨胀对通货膨胀波动性有稳定的正向影响关系,同时相同强度的通货膨胀冲击远远大于通货紧缩冲击对通货膨胀波动性的影响。对中国而言,控制通货膨胀比追求经济增长更重要。     

中国地区工资趋同的阶段性特征研究

文章以中国31个省级行政区的平均工资水平为研究对象,基于空间马尔可夫链方法,分析1978~2012年中国各地区工资趋同的特征。研究发现,各地区平均工资没有表现出向全国平均工资水平收敛的趋势,而是倾向于向更低的平均工资演进。工资趋同在整个期间并不平稳,而是分为表现迥异的1978~1990年和1991~2012年两个阶段。在第一阶段,不同的俱乐部中包含的成员数量较为接近,各地区的平均工资差距并不大。在第二阶段,俱乐部成员出现向两极集聚的现象,地区之间的平均工资差距较大。平均工资最低和最高的地区在工资分布中的相对位置到了第二阶段进一步固化;对于中间组,平均工资类型向上转移的概率小于向下转移的概率。工资水平相近的地区在空间上出现了集聚,且低值聚集特征明显。不同的邻域环境造成区域的类型转变概率不同,近邻效应明显。     

不完全资本市场、预防性储蓄与通货膨胀的福利成本分析

本文假设不完全资本市场条件下个体的自我保险为持币的主要动机,在总体风险和个体风险的框架下,讨论了通货膨胀对异质个体福利的影响。研究表明:对于像中国这样一个有很强信贷约束的不完全资本市场国家,本方法比传统基于MIU和CIA的模型更能反映通货膨胀对中国居民福利的影响。传统的方法低估了对像中国这样的国家中个体的通货膨胀福利成本。此外研究还表明,平均失业期对个体造成的通货膨胀成本影响很大。那些没有储蓄计划个体的出现减少了所有个体的平均福利。通过对总体风险的讨论,我们发现较高的失业率(平均失业期)将大大增加通货膨胀的成本,而工作分享计划则是一种降低通货膨胀成本的好措施。     

渐进式改革过程中的价格冲击与宏观经济稳定

<正> 15年改革开放引导中国经济进入了持续高速增长的时期。在此过程中,中国经济脱离了传统的经济剧烈波动的发展轨道,保持了相对平稳的经济增长轨迹。但是,这种新的增长格局正在明显地受到日渐突出的通货膨胀的干扰,每2—3年在通货膨胀的压力下,中国经济就被迫进行经济紧缩。在经济紧缩政策实施后,通货膨胀仍会保持相当高的水平。1994年中国宏观经济在未出现明显的以总需求大于总供给为特征的经济过热情况下,又出现了出人预料的高通货膨胀问题,这提醒我们应当注意影响中国宏观经济稳定的深层次原因。     

中国通货膨胀对社会福利影响的实证分析

通货膨胀究竟会给社会福利水平带来多大的影响,这是经济学者和各级政府所广泛关注的重要问题。本文基于双对数货币需求函数,结合中国1992—2004年的时间序列数据,通过应用计量经济学前沿方法得到货币需求的利率弹性和相应参数值,然后使用消费者剩余方法和变异补偿方法来具体估算中国通货膨胀对社会福利的影响。实证结果表明:将利率从14%降至3%会改善社会的福利水平,其数值相当于增加实际产出的0.67%;将利率从3%降至零带来的福利收益相当于增加实际产出的0.19%;通货膨胀越高,社会福利水平越低,因此,提高社会福利水平的一个重要手段是维持低通货膨胀.     

超额工资、外部成本渠道与 中国通货膨胀非线性关系研究 ——基于技术进步方式理论下的MSIAH VAR模型实证分析

本文利用MSIAH VAR模型就超额工资、外部成本、石油冲击等成本渠道对中国通货膨胀影响进行研究。实证结果发现,工资增长率超过产出增长率的超额工资加强了对中国的通货膨胀的推升作用,2003年后超额工资增长率与通胀率形成了相互推进的“超额工资增长-通胀”螺旋。在技术进步不足以消化成本上升时,外部输入成本和石油冲击对于国内的通胀作用也将逐步加强。但M2的高速增长率似乎没有对通胀带来明显的拉动作用,随着房地产等资产投机市场的回调,流动性回流到实体经济可能存在催生通胀的隐患。     

Inflation regimes and the stability of the pass-through of wages to consumer prices in Canada

This article has formally identified distinct historical inflation regimes in Canada since 1961 in order to facilitate an investigation of the impact of regime changes on the wage-price dynamics in the economy. Both in and out-of-sample evidence suggest that wage growth exerts an influence on inflation only during a high-inflation regime but inflation exerts a more systematic and quantitatively stronger influence on wage growth regardless of the prevailing inflation regime. Overall, the results do not support either the ‘cost-push’ view of inflation or the ‘new view’ that claims that increased globalization during the 1990s has reduced the feedback from wage growth to inflation by weakening the bargaining power of workers.     

The effects of indexation of wage contracts on macro-economic stability

The paper develops a simple analytical framework in which the shortrun affects of wage indexation on the dynamic stability of inflation can be analyzed. It consists of a unlonized labor market faced by a competitive demand. Without indexation, the wage contract is based upon the union's prediction of the price level during the period of the contract. With indexation, the same objective is achieved by contracting only once at some initial period, subject to the stipulation that the nominal wage is linked to the price level. The main result is that when the demand for money is sensitive to changes in the expected rate of inflation, nominal variables like prices and wages are more likely to yield an unstable dynamic response with wage indexation, thus endangering the monetary system.     

Inflation and Openness with Non‐Atomistic Wage Setters

This paper analyses the impact of trade openness on inflation in a strategic framework characterised by monopolistic production in the domestic sector and unionised labour markets. By stressing the interplay between internal and external sources of economic distortion, we show that the economy's inflationary bias reduces up to a critical level of trade openness. Beyond this threshold, wage setters may be induced to behave more aggressively in open economies, leading to higher equilibrium inflation. Based on a regression analysis that investigates the combined effect of labour market institutions and openness on inflation across nineteen OECD economies, we show that inflation is negatively related to openness when wage bargaining is decentralised, while there is virtually no link between openness and inflation at higher levels of wage centralisation.     

WELFARE COSTS OF SHIFTING TREND INFLATION: STAGGERED WAGE AND PRICE CONTRACTS

We develop a New Keynesian model featuring staggered price and wage contracts to study welfare costs of exogenous variations in trend inflation. The analyses show that the consequences of constant positive trend inflation and shifting trend inflation are severe, especially when trend inflation is high. Among two channels, staggered wage contracts play a vital role in transmitting adverse impacts of constant and shifting trend inflation into the economy. Without the staggered wage channel, these costs are modest. We also conduct exercises to examine the sensitivity of welfare costs to a wide range of plausible parameters. The results show that if the price and wage friction are sufficiently large, the price and wage indexation level are sufficiently small, or there is upward biased trend inflation process, the welfare costs become larger.     

Unemployment, Real Wages and the Money Supply in Australia*

Many observers have attributed the high unemployment experienced in Australia in the 1970s to the rises in real wages which have occurred in the decade. An alternative or additional hypothesis is that unemployment has resulted from policy directed at controlling inflation and that this has been exacerbated by the occurrence of adverse external factors, particularly bul not solely the oil price shocks, which have made inflation more difficult than otherwise to control .
The results of econometric tests suggest that a significant portion of fluctuations in the unemployment rate can be explained by real wage movements, and as well monetary policy through its effects on the real money supply also seems to affect unemployment. Both real wage rises and monetary restrictions appear to have contributed to the jump in unemployment in 1974–75, and since then the continuing high and rising unemployment rate is closely associated with the low growth rate of the real money supply .     

猪肉价格周期、劳动力价格与通货膨胀

猪肉价格周期变动主要是受到劳动力价格水平的变动影响。农民工的工资变动会导致对劳动力价格敏感的养猪户做出放弃养猪(去打工)或增加养猪(放弃打工)的变化,进而导致猪肉价格的升降变动。工业部门中的可贸易部门的工资变动,使猪肉价格周期变动效应放大。关注可贸易部门的劳动力价格的工资变动,可以预测猪肉价格周期,进而可以预测通货膨胀走势。     

Growth cycles and inflation in a model of the class struggle

The problems of price and wage inflation and unemployment are discussed here in a context of a model of class struggle developed by R. M. Goodwin. The basic Goodwin model which is an analog of the Volterra-Lotka preypredator model is extended to include actual and anticipated price inflation and excess capacity. Cyclical behavior of labor's share in national income and the employment ratio is studied around a Harrodian steady state. It is found that the presence of money illusion with respect to the actual rate of inflation in the wage bargaining equation is a stabilizing influence. With respect to anticipated inflation, local stability of equilibrium is no longer assured. The implications of this for Phillips curve analysis are also derived.     

Wage and unemployment: Evidence from online job vacancy data

This paper examines the relationship between labour market conditions and wage dynamics by exploiting a unique dataset of more than one million online job vacancies. We find a weak trade-off between aggregate wage inflation and unemployment. This link becomes more evident when the wage inflation is disaggregated at the sectoral and occupational level. The examination, using vacancy-level data, shows a negative correlation between offered wage and unemployment. The degree of wage elasticity, however, is different across regions and skill segments. Our findings suggest the importance of micro-level data's unique dimensions in examining the wage – unemployment relationship.     

Pre-recession wage inflation and the strength of the subsequent recovery

This study shows that the rate of wage inflation in the year before a recession is positively related to the rate of employment growth in the subsequent recovery. A possible explanation for this relationship is downward nominal wage rigidity. It is also found that the prior rate of wage inflation is not significantly related to the employment decline during the ensuing recession, suggesting that prior wage inflation has a greater impact on the strength of the recovery from a recession than on the severity of the recession.