Changes in National Technological Competitiveness: 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1999

Georgia Tech's Technology Policy and Assessment Center, with support from the US National Science Foundation, has been generating High-Tech Indicators (HTI) — measures of national technology-based export competitiveness since 1987. This paper reports the HTI results for 33 nations in 1999 in comparison with those of 1990, 1993 and 1996. HTI includes four 'input indicators' and a key 'output indicator' — technological standing. We construct a new composite input indicator here and examine its predictive capability. Input indicators for 1990 and 1993 show intriguing relationships to 1999 technological standing. We compare the indicators for various groups — leading and emerging Western economies, rapidly developing Asian economies, former Eastern Bloc nations and lagging Latin American countries. The USA presently exhibits a dominant position, but signs strongly point toward increasingly broad-based competition in technology-based products.     

Anticipating the future high-tech competitiveness of nations: Indicators for twenty-eight countries

This article presents some of the major results obtained during the third phase of a continuing research effort to develop and implement national indicators of competitiveness in high technology industries. The first phase, begun in 1987, developed a conceptual model of the processes by which industrializing nations gain access to external technology and technical information, absorb that technology/information effectively, and institutionalize a science-based development and manufacturing capability leading to export-led growth in high technology products. Four “input” or leading indicators of a nation's future capacity (15-year time horizons) to compete in international markets in high technology products were developed, as were three “output” indicators of a nation's current international competitiveness. During this first phase, the seven indicators were applied to data for twenty countries representing a range of regions and extent of industrialization. The second phase used 1990 data on an expanded set of countries to examine in detail the indicators' reliability and validity. The third phase of indicators work (1992–1995): (1) developed seven indicators whose definitions were recommended in our 1991 final report to the Science Indicators Unit of the National Science Foundation, and (2) collected the necessary data (1993) and applied them to generate a set of indicators for 28 countries using these recommended formulations.This article focuses on the input indicators for the 28 countries and compares these 1993 results with those from 1990. We discuss the implications of these results for technology-based development theory and for development policy. A separate, companion article published elsewhere presents the output indicator results.     

The role of the technology barometer in assessing the performance of the national innovation system

Along with increasing significance of innovation in socio-economic development grows the need to utilize future-oriented knowledge in innovation policy-making. Foresight and road-map exercises are aimed at supporting planning and priority-setting of R&D and have become indispensable elements of policy-making. Besides technological development decision-makers need all-inclusive knowledge of future developments of society, economy and impacts of science and technology. When the worldwide competition is about the attractiveness of innovation systems, such knowledge is important for comparing the innovation performance of nations to other economies. Finland is among the countries improving her position in worldwide performance comparisons since the late 1990s and reached leading nations in early 2000s. This attainment raised national interest and critical debate of the reliability of the data basis and methodologies used in comparisons. In The Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers (TEK) this discussion led to a decision to develop an own comparative exercise together with VTT. In addition to performance analysis based on ex-post indicators the barometer includes the questionnaire of the views and visions of the future development by relevant national actors. The theoretical framework of the barometer is based on the evolution of economies from industrial development phase to sustainable knowledge society. The barometer has been undertaken in 2004, 2005 and 2007, and a wide interest and emerged discussion of barometer proves that a social interest and order exists for the barometer. The article presents the background, methodology and results of technology barometer, discusses its impacts on national discussion, and gives perspectives for the future development of barometer.     

The quality and quantity of bank intermediation and economic growth: evidence from Asia Pacific

We investigate the impact of the quantity and quality of bank intermediation on economic growth across 14 Asia-Pacific economies over 2003–2015. Measures of bank shareholder value efficiency as well as profit and cost efficiency are used as indicators of intermediation quality. We also employ measures of liquidity creation (fat and nonfat) as a proxy for the quantity of bank intermediation. Our main finding is that the quality of bank intermediation (enhanced credit allocation) is a driver of economic growth in developed Asia-Pacific economies, whereas it is the quantity of bank intermediation (capital accumulation) that positively influences growth in developing nations. From a policy perspective, our findings suggest that policymakers in developed nations should concentrate their efforts on reforms that enhance bank efficiency. Second, reforms that stimulate capital accumulation should be encouraged in developing economies because this is the main channel that spurs economic growth.     

Firm innovativeness and work-life balance

Assessing firms’ innovativeness is not an easy task. The literature recognises a number of innovativeness indicators. Most of them are technology-based indicators which perform well in high-tech industries but might be ineffective in other industries where patenting is not usual or in which R&D budgets are low or not formalised. In this paper, we critically review previous innovativeness indicators and we propose a new approach to assess firm innovativeness that is based not on the role of technology but on that of people. This new approach focuses on the existence of work-life balance benefits that are connected with motivation, engagement and creativity in the workplace. We argue that this could be an effective complementary means to assess the innovativeness of firms. It could be combined with previously used indicators and might have considerable advantages such as their suitability for application in any kind of firm regardless of its technological profile.     

Project evaluation framework for industrial technology capacity enhancement

There is an increasing trend for interconnections between all nations of the world owing to the widespread globalization of industrial production, inputs sourcing and outputs marketing. A further reason is the raised awareness of global consequences, resulting from natural resources depletion and apparently localized environmental degradation activities by industries. Much of this ever-growing and complex interdependence has been possible as a result of a host of unprecedented technologial achievements in the past few deades, which have enabled industrial enterprises in developed countries to accomplish an increased degree of flexibility, through automated manufacturing, to combine economies of sale, through process standardization, with economies of scope, through product differentiation, and to acheive quicker response times to customers7apos; prefernces and market demands. Simultaneously, in most developing countries, there is also an observable undercurrent of deregulation, privatization or corporatization, and open international market competition for industrial development. In this present era of new internationalism, technology management has become one of the main strategic priorities, because it provides the vital factor underpinning the survival and prosperity of industrial enterprises everywhere. Hence, given the recognition that the key competitive advantage in the international market-place nowadays is the ability of an enterprise continuously to introduce technological innovations faster than others, the need for endogenous technology capacity building can hardly be overmphasized. This paper presents a general framework for the development of a set of technology indicators which could be useful for assesing industrial investment projects funded by an international or national development finance institutino. The framework attempts to integrate business and technology strategies particularly in the context of developing countries. Starting with consideration of the unique characteristics of technolgoy at the firm level, and using a systems analysis approach to the market structure, possible strategic mixed are determined by considering four business stratetgies—price, value, niche and green leadership—and four technology strategies—technology leader, follower, exploiter and extender. The necessary considerations for a technological capability enhancement and palusible technology strategy rogression path are also discussed for different development conditions. The analytical measures presented in this paper are focused on such important aspects as the degree of technology component sophistication, the level of technology capability advancement, the status of technology infrasturcture building, and the dynamism of technology climate, all of which could be used for investment project review and appraisal undertaken by iunternational and national development finance institutions.     

Technological innovation strategy: how do technology life cycles change by technological area

Discussions on the patterns of technological innovation have significant implications in terms of the efficient distribution of national R&D resources and the establishment of corporate managerial strategies. This study is focused on calculating and analysing technology cycle time (TCT) by technological area based on patent data that can be used as easily accessible objective indicators for the purpose of modelling the patterns of technological innovation by period and technological area. The main technological areas handled by the study include medical science, vehicles, metallurgy, and computing. Of the patent data registered with the United States Patent and Trademark Office from 1990 to 2014, International Patent Classification sub-class codes representing each technological area were selected to collect patent data, and to generate TCT statistics every five years. The TCT statistics generated is interpreted as the technological life cycle, to be used in modelling technological innovation patterns individualised by technology and period.     

Does ecologically unequal exchange occur?

The hypothesis of ecologically unequal exchange posits that low and middle income developing nations maintain an ecological deficit with wealthy developed nations, exporting natural resources and high impact commodities thereby allowing wealthy economies to avoid operating ecologically impactful industries at home. In this survey we assess the footprint of consumption of 187 countries using eight indicators of environmental pressure in order to determine whether or not this phenomenon occurs. We use input–output analysis with a new high resolution global Multi-Region Input–Output table to calculate each trading pair's balance of trade in biophysical terms of: GHG emissions, embodied water, and scarcity-weighted water content, air pollution, threatened species, Human Appropriated Net Primary Productivity, total material flow, and ecological footprint. We test three hypotheses that should be true if ecologically unequal exchange occurs. One: The inter-regional balance of trade in biophysical terms is disproportional to the balance of trade in financial terms. We find this is true, though not strongly so. Two: Exports from developing nations are more ecologically intensive than those from developed nations. We find this is true. Three: High-income nations disproportionately exert ecological impacts in lower income nations. We find this is false: high income nations are mostly exporters, not importers, of biophysical resources.     

Technology-based environmental health risks in developing nations

This paper addresses two questions: 1) To what extent are developing nations vulnerable to technology- related environmental health risks? 2) To what extent does the export of hazardous technologies and products contribute to overall levels of environmental health risk in developing nations? The paper focuses on three major types of environmental health risks: the failure of large-scale technological systems; the use or misuse of consumer goods, mechanical devices, and chemicals; and industrial emissions of toxic substances. In addition, three categories of hazardous exports are examined: hazardous products (e.g., pesticides), hazardous production processes (e.g., asbestos processing), and hazardous wastes (e.g., chemical and radioactive waste). The paper concludes that technology-based environmental health risks pose a significant public health problem in most developing nations, even when compared to much larger public health problems such as tropical and gastrointestinal diseases. Technology-based risks are growing in number and frequency. If developing and developed nations continue their current policies, these risks will grow at a significantly greater rate.     

The technological capabilities of nations: The state of the art of synthetic indicators

Composite synthetic indicators of the technological capabilities of nations have been used more frequently over the last years becoming a sort of Olympic medal table of the innovation race. The European Commission, specialised United Nations Agencies, the World Bank, the World Economic Forum, and individual scholars have developed several of these measurement tools at macroeconomic level. All these indicators are based on a variety of statistical sources in order to capture the multidimensional nature of technological change. This paper reviews these various exercises and: i) it brings into light the explicit and implicit assumptions on the nature of technological change; ii) it discusses their pros and cons; and iii) it explores the consistency among the results achieved. Most of the final rankings at the country level are fairly consistent, but significant discrepancies for some nations emerge. The value of synthetic indicators of technological capabilities for public policy, company strategies and economic studies is finally discussed.     

The complementary nature of technological capabilities: Measurement and robustness issues

The application of composite indicators to complex phenomena in social science has come to remarkable prominence. As a result, they have been widely applied in wide-ranging fields. This paper explores the application of a composite indicator of technological capabilities that can be also valid for composite indicators in other fields. We focus on whether different methodologies to build composite indicators lead to different results. The arithmetic mean to aggregate technological capabilities variables has been widely criticized, as it allows for perfect substitutability between variables, thus disregarding the complementary nature of technological capabilities. We introduce a new aggregation rule, the concave mean, in order to take into account the complementarity argument in a Science-Technology-Innovation context. Using a dataset for 138 countries, we show that the arithmetic mean is biased in principle but robust in practice. This depends upon the fact that technologically more advanced countries tend to have a more complementary structure in their technological capabilities compared to less developed nations.     

Global Technology Policies for Economic Growth

With the end of the Cold War, nations throughout the world are placing ever greater emphasis on economic growth. Over the last 50 years, advances in technology have been the single most important factor in creating growth in many economies, and thus policies to promote technological innovation rank high on the list of priorities for both developed and developing countries. In general, as countries progress up the economic ladder, national R&D intensity, (i.e., R&D/GDP), tends to increase along with per capita income. In addition, nations move through a discernible sequence of technology policies from an initial focus on infrastructure, through a set of actions designed to encourage technology acquisition from more advanced economies, to comprehensive education and research agendas targeted to the creation and development of new technology. In the United States, national technology policy for economic growth focuses on education, building a 21st century infrastructure, and creating a business climate that encourages growth, technological innovation, and risk taking.Throughout the last 50 years there have been significant changes in the competitive position of nations. In recent years, U.S. corporations have regained some of the competitive leadership they lost in the 1980s. This has been accompanied by significantly increased R&D spending by U.S. industry, particularly in the information and health care related sectors. U.S. industry funding of R&D overtook that from the government in the early 1980s and accounts for almost two-thirds of the national total.     

Technology at the beginning of the 21st century1

We are science and technology heading in the decades ahead? All leading industrial nations have been looking for plausible answers to this question. Government agencies and industry—particularly in Japan and the US—have been carrying out technological studies in recentyears to gather facts and arguments for their research planning. An interdisciplinary working group commissioned by the German Federal Research Minister brought together several R&D programme managing agencies under the auspices of the Karlsruhe-based Fraunhofer Institute for Systas and Innovation Research (ISI) to prepare a futures study of science and technology in the German context.     

Strategic Role of Technological Self-Reliance in Development Management

Thanks to technological advancements, every society — throughout the world — is now better off than before. Although this is true for all societies considered in an aggregate manner, within each society and between different societies, the relative gaps in prosperity are increasing. Reversing these gaps is the most important challenge for human development in the twenty-first century. A thorough scrutiny of the causes for the observed negative trends would indicate that technological gap is at the root of all. Success stories clearly tell us that technological capacity building is the best foundation for any meaningful economic growth that leads to a higher standard of living and greater prosperity for the citizens of a country. Moreover, technology-based creative problem solving and the ability to manage technological innovation are essential prerequisites for the success of contemporary business executives operating in the competitive globalized market environment. Paying attention to these lessons is the call of the day for any developing country government as well as for the business executives of that country. This article discusses the strategic role of technological self-reliance in development management, in terms of what we have learned so far and where we should be going, so as to reverse the widening technological capacity gap between the developed and developing countries.     

Nowcasting Indonesia

We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a dynamic factor model on a dataset of 11 indicators (followed closely by market operators) over the 2002–2014 period. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators of current economic conditions, Indonesia presents additional challenges typical to emerging market economies where data are often scant and unreliable. By means of a pseudo-real-time forecasting exercise, we show that our model outperforms univariate benchmarks, and it does comparably well with predictions of market operators. Finally, we show that when quality of data is low, a careful selection of indicators is crucial for better forecast performance.     

Technological knowledge,spillover and productivity: evidence from Taiwanese firm level panel data

Using a panel data on Taiwanese manufacturing firms from 1990–1997, this study investigates the relationship among technological knowledge, spillover and productivity. In addition to R&D stock, we also employ patent counts to construct the output-side indicators of knowledge and spillover to explore the relationship between knowledge and productivity. We find a very significant contribution of R&D, patents and spillover stock to productivity. In addition, the magnitude of the patent stock coefficient is substantially larger than that estimated by R&D stock. Our results imply that innovative activity investment has been very productive in increasing output for Taiwanese manufacturing firms in the 1990s.     

The economics of poverty traps part one: Complete markets

This paper lists theoretical reasons why neoclassical models of one-sector growth imply that nations with identical economic structures need not converge to the same steady state or balanced growth path, and outlines the empirical significance and policy implications of conditional nonconvergence. We survey poverty traps in both convex and nonconvex economies with complete market structures. Among the potential causes of traps are subsistence consumption; distorted international trade in intermediate inputs; demographic transitions when fertility is endogenous; technological complementarities in the production of consumption goods, financial intermediation services, manufactures, or human capital; coordination failures among voters; various restrictions on borrowing; indivisibilities in human capital formation or child rearing; and monopolistic competition in product or factor markets.     

Openness,productivity and growth in the APEC economies

The 1980s and 1990s have witnessed the emergence of many Asian economies as important traders in the world. How has openness to trade and investment affected productivity and growth performance in those economies? This question is often tackled with the traditional growth regression method. However, the findings in the existing literature are still inconclusive. This paper proposes an alternative approach which is employed to examine the impact of openness on the sources of productivity and growth in the APEC economies. Specifically, the proposed technique distinguishes technological progress (innovation) from efficiency changes (catch-up) and attempts to isolate the influences of openness on these two distinct factors. The findings in this study may help gain fresh insight into the relationship between openness and productivity and growth performance in the APEC economies.First revision received: July 2001/Final revision received: May 2003The author thanks two anonymous referees for very helpful comments.     

The IMF and the Liberalization of Capital Flows

We evaluate the claim that the International Monetary Fund precipitated financial crises during the 1990s, by pressuring countries to liberalize their capital accounts prematurely. Using data from a panel of developing economies from 1982–98, we examine whether the changes in the regime governing capital flows took place during participation in IMF programs. We find evidence that IMF program participation is correlated with capital account liberalization episodes during the 1990s. We verify the robustness of our results using alternative indicators of capital account openness. To determine whether decontrol was premature, we compare the economic and financial characteristics of countries that decontrolled during IMF programs with those of countries who did so independently, and find some evidence of IMF-led premature liberalizations.