The nutrition transition and agricultural transformation: a Preston curve approach

The nutrition transition in diets and health is closely tied to other aspects of economic development, including agricultural transformation and urbanization as well as demographic change and epidemiological transition from infectious to noncommunicable disease. Over time, dietary patterns typically shift from widespread inadequacy of many foods and nutrients, especially for children and mothers, into surplus energy intake and rising obesity with continued inadequacy of healthier foods. Diet‐related diseases remain the largest single cause of premature death and disability in all regions. This article combines food availability and dietary intake data from more than 100 countries over 30 years with a wide range of other evidence to characterize the nutrition transition and its association with changes in agricultural production and the food environment, asking how future dietary patterns might be steered toward healthier outcomes as national incomes grow.     

The nutrition transition to 2030. Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden

Considerable increases in food consumption, shifts in consumption patterns and changes in the entire food system have occurred globally. These changes, initially limited to the industrialized world, are now being experienced at an even faster pace in many of the advanced economies of the developing world. The past evolution of this transition in nutrition and lifestyles is by now well documented. Based on FAO's outlook for global food and agriculture, this paper outlines the likely future changes in food consumption patterns and the global trajectory of the nutrition transition over the next 30 years. It presents the main drivers of the nutrition transition and examines their influence on the prospective changes in consumption patterns. The paper illustrates how the current burden of undernourishment and malnutrition in developing countries is likely to compound the adverse effects of the nutrition transition, notably the increasing prevalence of obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs); it shows how and where the current problem of undernutrition could create a growing future burden of overweight, obesity and NCDs and that both undernourishment and overnutrition are likely to co-exist for a long time in the vast majority of developing countries, creating a widespread double burden of malnutrition.     

Does food market modernisation lead to improved dietary diversity and diet quality for urban Vietnamese households?

This study investigates the possible mechanisms through which modern food markets may affect Vietnamese households’ dietary diversity and diet quality using data from a survey of 1,700 urban households with seven‐day food recall. We calculate Household Dietary Diversity Scores to measure dietary diversity, and use consumption frequencies of micronutrients (vitamin A and heme iron) and a macronutrient (protein) to create a household measure of diet quality. We estimate a Poisson regression model using a two‐step control function approach to address the potential endogeneity of our key explanatory variable, modern market food expenditure shares. Higher modern market food expenditure share is positively and significantly associated with consumption frequency of heme iron, but there are no significant associations with consumption of vitamin A and protein. We further explore indirect linkages between food expenditure shares and dietary diversity, which in turn, may be linked to household diet quality. Results from a system of equations show that the food expenditure share variable has no significant relationship with dietary diversity, but dietary diversity is positively and significantly associated with diet quality. Our results indicate that alone, policies which encourage ‘food market modernisation’ are not enough to improve diet quality in urban Vietnam.     

Diet,trade and land use: a socio-ecological analysis of the transformation of the olive oil system

Within only two decades olive oil developed from a niche product which could hardly be found in food stores outside the producing regions towards an integrated component in the diets of industrial countries. This paper discusses the impacts of the promotion of the “healthy Mediterranean diet” on land use and agro-ecosystems in the producing countries. It examines the dynamics of olive oil production, trade and consumption in the EU15 in the period 1972–2003 and the links between dietary patterns, trade and land use. It analyses the underlying socio-economic driving forces behind the increasing spatial disconnect between production and consumption of olive oil in the EU15 and in particular in Spain, the world largest producer during the last three decades.     

From neoliberalism to national developmentalism? Contested agrarian imaginaries of a postneoliberal future for food and farming

This review examines three recent books that address the relationship between neoliberalism and agribusiness, on the one hand, and the demise of smallholder farming, traditional diets and the rise of diet‐related chronic illness, on the other. The first, by Timothy Wise, adopts what may be characterized as an ‘agrarian populist’ stance, constructing a universal binary between trans‐nationalizing agribusiness and a unified family farm sector. Protagonists from the latter are seen to embody the future, using agroecology to feed the world sustainably in a time of climate crisis. This is not a consistently propeasant stance, however; Wise seems rather to advocate a ‘farmer road’ to national capitalist development. The other two books, by Alyshia Galvez and Gerardo Otero, cover quite similar ground to one another, looking explicitly at the rise of neoliberalism, the decline of traditional farming and diets and the rise of processed food‐related diseases. Unlike ‘agrarian populists’, both authors privilege the state and ‘class struggle’ (sensu lato) in analysing the dynamics of neoliberalism, free trade agreements and food policies. Normatively, both see the state as pivotal in generating policies centred around smaller scale farming and the production of nutritious food for all. For Otero, like Wise, these policies seem to be tied to a form of national developmentalism as an escape route from neoliberalism. For Galvez, the future is less clear‐cut—although by inclination ‘propeasant’, she does not exclude elements of national developmentalism in envisioning a postneoliberal world.     

Domestic Crop Booms,Livelihood Pathways and Nested Transitions: Charting the Implications of Bangladesh's Pangasius Boom

Rapidly transforming Asian food systems are oriented largely towards domestic markets, yet literature on Asian crop booms deals almost exclusively with commodities produced for export. With reference to pangasius aquaculture in Bangladesh, we argue that ‘domestic crop booms’ – agricultural booms driven by domestic demand – are contributing to rapid social and ecological transformations in Asia and across the globe. We adopt a comparative multi‐scalar approach, and develop the concept of ‘livelihood pathways’ as a means of understanding agrarian change associated with crop booms. The study reveals sharply divergent patterns of social change resulting from the pangasius boom, as experienced in two different village settings, despite underlying similarities in the processes of commodification evident in both. In addition to drawing attention to domestic crop booms and the diversity of transitions in which they result, the paper demonstrates the value of comparative multi‐scalar analytical approaches and the importance of livelihood pathways in processes of agrarian change.     

Dietary patterns and body mass indices among adults in Korea: evidence from pseudo panel data

The debate over the association between dietary patterns and obesity has not been settled in the literature. Some studies suggest that there are significant differences in mean body mass index across dietary patterns whereas other studies refute that result. The objective of this study is to test whether dietary patterns have a significant effect on body mass index in Korean adults when controlling for calorie intake and several sociodemographic factors. We present new evidence derived from pseudo panel data created from a series of cross‐sections. Our results from the pseudo panel analysis show that some of the dietary patterns that were identified from the Korean adults’ food intake survey have a significant effect on body mass index. Specifically, males with the “beef and processed food” (P < 0.05), or “pork and alcohol” (P < 0.05) dietary pattern had significantly higher BMIs, whereas females with the “fast food” (P < 0.1) or “ramen and bakery” (P < 0.01) dietary pattern had higher BMI.     

Demand for animal‐derived food in selected Asian countries: A system‐wide analysis

Food consumption patterns in Asia show a trend away from staples toward high protein food derived from animal and dairy products, fruit and vegetables, fats and oils. Such changes in food consumption patterns are due to rising incomes, urbanization, globalization, and modernization of marketing infrastructure. In this article, we analyze the demand for the animal‐derived food group comprising meat (chicken, beef, pork, and mutton), eggs and fish, and derive income and price elasticities in seven Asian countries using the system‐wide approach. Demand homogeneity and Slutsky symmetry properties were tested and found to be compatible with the data. Our findings reveal that animal‐derived food as a group is a necessity (except in Taiwan) and its demand is price inelastic (except in Taiwan and Sri Lanka). The implied unconditional demand elasticities reveal that, in all countries (except beef in Japan and Taiwan), chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs and fish (except in Taiwan) are all necessities and the demand for all types of animal‐derived food in all seven countries are mostly price inelastic. The cross‐price elasticity estimates are mostly found to be positive, meaning that there is a higher degree of substitutability between chicken, beef, pork, mutton, eggs, and fish.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRICE TRANSMISSION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

The three-step estimator of the co-integrated system approach is used to examine the dynamic transmission of agricultural producer prices through the food marketing system in seven countries of the EU. The results suggest that even if producer and consumer prices drift apart in the short-run, for example when producer price policy changes, market forces return them to their long-run equilibrium. Tests do not reject the hypothesis of long-run ‘perfect’ price transmission for two, pigmeat-pigs and butter-milk, out of five pairs of prices, in six of the seven member countries of the EU considered here, the UK being the exception. The tests do, however, reject the hypothesis of short-run ‘perfect’ price transmission, even in its less restrictive form, across all pairs of prices in all countries.     

The effect of violent conflict on calorie consumption and dietary quality in Iraq

By combining 2012 Living Standard Measurement Survey cross-sectional survey responses and georeferenced conflict data, this study quantifies the effect of violent conflict on food security and dietary quality in Iraq. Specifically, it estimates the effect of physical insecurity on different food security dimensions, including caloric consumption and household dietary diversity. Because disrespecting war-related foreign national cemeteries is a war crime that discourages nearby fighting, instrumenting conflict intensity by the exogenous variation in distance between these sites and household place of residence addresses potential sources of bias. The instrumental variable analysis confirms the positive (negative) effect of conflict—deriving from state, non-state and one-sided violence (e.g., attacks by the Islamic State)—on per capita caloric consumption (household dietary diversity), which although counterintuitive is unsurprising given Iraq's relatively high-income levels and changes in dietary pattern. Given that the primary driver of conflict's positive effect on calories is increased consumption of carbohydrates and, to a lesser extent, saturated fat, these results suggest that in countries transitioning to Western-style diets, violent conflict may drive the population toward an unhealthier diet, contributing heavily to a growing national prevalence of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases.     

Neighborhood socioeconomics,food environment and land use determinants of public health: Isolating the relative importance for essential policy insights

Recent literature has advocated the connection between land use policies with public health promotion. In this regard, examining the land use determinants of public health and isolating the relative importance with other influential factors should provide essential policy insights. However, very limited efforts have been made in this aspect, particularly for the developing countries. Using a case of Wuhan (China), this paper attempts to capture the land use determinants of obesity prevalence among middle-aged adults and to compare the relative importance with neighborhood socioeconomics and food environment. A conceptual framework is first proposed to guide the analysis within a land use policy context. Data are then collected during the China’s National Physical Fitness Survey in 2010 and multivariate linear regression is applied to analyze the district level determinants. Results show that neighborhood socioeconomics, food environment and land use all have significant effects on obesity prevalence among the middle-aged adults. The men obesity is associated with the occupation, education and housing, while women obesity is correlated with income and housing. Women obesity associates with healthy food environment, while men obesity correlates with unhealthy food environment. Open public space is negative to women obesity, and institutional land is negative to men obesity. Greater walkability and street connectivity associate with lower obesity risk for both genders. The variance decomposition demonstrates that food environment is the most important determinant of men obesity, while land use is the most essential determinant of women obesity. For the obesity prevalence among total population, neighborhood socioeconomics are key determinants. Based on our analysis, we finally provide some insights for land use policies that aim at addressing the obesity issue in developing countries.     

Food Scares and Trust: A European Study

The complex interactions between the determinants of food purchase under risk are explored using the SPARTA model, based on the theory of planned behaviour, and estimated through a combination of multivariate statistical techniques. The application investigates chicken consumption choices in two scenarios: (a) a ‘standard’ purchasing situation; and (b) following a hypothetical Salmonella scare. The data are from a nationally representative survey of 2,725 respondents from five European countries: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Results show that the effects and interactions of behavioural determinants vary significantly within Europe. Only in the case of a food scare do risk perceptions and trust come into play. The policy priority should be on building and maintaining trust in food and health authorities and research institutions, while food chain actors could mitigate the consequences of a food scare through public trust. No relationship is found between socio‐demographic variables and consumer trust in food safety information.     

The Effect of Behavioral Contagion and Tie-Strength on Calorie Intake in Food Courts

Major contributors to the obesity epidemic are societal and result from sedentary lifestyles and consumption of high-calorie diets. Previous studies suggest that food choice behavior is socially transmissible. Hence, knowledge of the impact of social influence on calorie intake is critical to improve the understanding about the outcomes of policies related to healthful diets. There is the need to analyze the influence of social networks on choosing food in a public place. Thus, we interviewed groups of food court patrons in an all-you-can-eat college dining hall. Results show individuals dining in a group with at least one obese group member are consuming more calories from high-calorie foods and fewer calories from low-calorie foods. Food-related interactions in a group influenced food consumption. Hence, dining with obese peers likely increases calorie intake.     

平衡膳食模式视角下粮食需求预测

[目的]随着时代的进步和社会经济的发展,对粮食安全内涵的理解也在逐步深化,粮食安全内涵不仅包括数量方面,还包括营养健康安全,保障居民营养健康成为粮食安全的新时代内涵。基于营养目标的粮食需求研究,建立营养—消费—生产的粮食生产模式,对引导居民合理健康消费和保障粮食安全具有十分重要的意义。[方法]文章首先分析了我国城乡居民营养消费状况,然后基于平衡膳食模式视角,引入标准人消费系数这一概念对我国未来粮食需求进行了更准确的预测。[结果]城镇居民粮食消费已达到高营养目标,但目前农村居民仅达到低营养目标水平,相当于21世纪初的城镇消费水平;考虑人口结构因素,2020年和2030年粮食需求总量分别为4.8亿t和5.6亿t,比没有考虑人口结构变化时分别减少8700万t和2 600万t。[结论]根据分析结果,提出以下几点政策建议:(1)宣传普及营养健康消费知识,引导居民合理膳食;(2)关注人口结构变动,及时调整粮食安全调控机制;(3)优化食品工业的产业机构升级,提高饲料粮转化率。     

LINEAR PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS OF CONSTRAINTS UPON HUMAN DIETS

This paper applies linear programming cost-minimisation models to the analysis of human diets. The models incorporate considerations of nutritional and non-nutritional factors in diet choice in order to assess the impact of adopting dietary guidelines upon the cost of nutrition-only and palatable diets. The dual prices yielded by the models are used to estimate the total cost of meeting requirements for separate nutrients in diets for different population groups. Sensitivity analysis is then used to derive marginal cost curves for changes in the supply of nutrients covered by the dietary guidelines. The cost and composition of ‘healthy’ human diets contrast markedly with the results of past studies and indicate that economic constraints upon dietary guideline adoption are limited.     

At‐home meat consumption in China: an empirical study*

The remarkable economic changes occurring within China since 1978 have resulted in a striking alteration in food consumption patterns, and one marked change is the increasing consumption of meat. Given China’s large population, a small percentage change in per capita meat consumption could lead to a dramatic impact on the production and trade of agricultural products. Such changes have major implications for policy makers and food marketers. This paper concentrates on meat consumption patterns in the home in China. A censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system model was employed in the study, and major economic parameters were estimated for different meat items. Data used in this study were collected from two separate consumer surveys – one urban and one rural in 2005.     

Childhood obesity in Mexico: the effect of international migration

This article estimates the effect of international migration from Mexico to the United States on the obesity status of children who remain in Mexico. Theory suggests that increased liquidity as well as changing time allocations resulting from migration may influence obesity outcomes. Natural disasters are used as an identification strategy. Results suggest that older boys in urban areas are more likely to become obese when either a male or female migrates from the household, while girls in urban areas are less likely to become obese. Both changes in food expenditure patterns and time use changes after migration are likely pathways that affect childhood obesity. While there are some changes in food expenditures, we find more importantly that urban girls engage in more housework and screen time after migration, whereas urban teen boys do not substitute for adult work as much as girls. These changes in strenuous activities, particularly for girls, likely explain the differential effect that migration has on boys’ and girls’ obesity outcomes in Mexico.     

From Farm to Kitchen: How Gender Affects Production Diversity and the Dietary Intake of Farm Households in Ethiopia

Malnutrition in farm households remains a significant problem in many developing countries and is linked to a lack of diversity in diets. We explore how gender differences might affect household dietary diversity using the LSMS‐ISA Ethiopia panel dataset. Drawing on a farm household framework, nonlinear panel models are estimated allowing for unobserved heterogeneity and production endogeneity using a control function. We use decomposition techniques to identify the impact of different potential sources of gender difference in dietary diversity. Our results provide evidence of significant gender effects in production diversity and in dietary diversity using the food variety score (FVS). For other indicators of dietary diversity, the evidence of gender effects is weaker. The decomposition results suggest that, after controlling for differences in characteristics, female‐headed households are at a dietary diversity disadvantage. Gender differences in the relationship between production diversity, price and income and dietary diversity and the production diversity decisions appear to be the main drivers. The results also suggest that female preferences are more orientated towards ensuring greater dietary diversity in the household. Our evidence also suggests that a key driver of gender disadvantage in dietary diversity is related to whether food is sourced from the household’s own production or the market. This implies that part of the observed negative gender impact on dietary diversity may stem from differences in marketing and storage of own production through the year.     

TOWARDS A BROADER UNDERSTANDING OF MEAT DEMAND — PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

This paper sets out meat consumption trends in the United Kingdom and within other EU countries over the past 40 years; it shows that whereas in the UK meat consumption has only increased by a small amount, for other EU countries it has almost doubled. In analysing the data in more detail, it is apparent that ‘non-price/income’ factors have been playing a more important part both for the UK and other EU countries. It is true that in recent years there has been much more published empirical work on the effect of different attitude, demographic and structural factors on meat demand; commercial and Governmental organisations have also been collecting a significant amount of relevant unpublished data. However, there has not been much recent progress on integrated approaches which combine the analyses of the consumer behaviourist with those of the economist. The paper concludes by stating that this is an area of growing importance for the food industry and those interested in analysing food demand trends. Agricultural economists should therefore get more involved in it.     

Did the Commons Make Medieval and Early Modern Rural Societies More Equitable? A Survey of Evidence from across Western Europe, 1300–1800

The view of the commons as archaic, ‘backward’ and ‘irrational’ institutions for the management of resources has now been revised in favour of a more positive one, for both past and present societies. Indeed, it is clear that the commons had multifarious ecological and economic benefits for both medieval and early modern rural societies in Western Europe. That being the case, many scholars have seen the increasing expropriation of the commons in the transition to the early modern period as a sign of increasing inequality characterizing pre‐industrial Europe, and many have lamented the loss of communal grazing privileges connected to processes such as land enclosure – pushing poor peasants into the ‘abyss’ with the removal of their final form of welfare. However, in this paper it is argued that the social distribution of the benefits to the commons were rarely, if ever, entirely equitable. In fact, in many historical contexts the benefits of the commons could also be highly restricted – crystallizing and entrenching stratifications themselves, and even serving as the ‘vehicle’ of further inequality. The expropriation of the commons did not necessarily make Western European rural societies any more unequal.