Diet transformation in Africa: the case of Ethiopia

Africa's food systems are changing fast amid rapid economic growth, emerging urbanization, and structural transformation. In this study, we use four rounds of nationally representative data from Ethiopia to document changes in household food consumption patterns over a period of unprecedented economic growth. We find that while the share of food in the total consumption basket is declining, food quantities and calorie intakes have considerably increased between 1996 and 2011. A decomposition analysis suggests that this was mostly driven by improvements in household incomes—a finding that is consistent across the calorie distribution. Also, the content of the food basket is changing with a gradual shift toward high‐value foods such as animal products, fruits and vegetables and processed foods. Overall, this diet transformation has important implications for the food security debate and for agricultural and food policy in the country.     

Agricultural Commercialisation and Nutrition in Smallholder Farm Households

Commercialisation of smallholder agriculture is important for rural economic growth. While previous studies have analysed effects of commercialisation on productivity and income, implications for farm household nutrition have received much less attention. We evaluate the effects of commercialisation on household food security and dietary quality with a special focus on calorie and micronutrient consumption. We also examine transmission channels by looking at the role of income, gender, and possible substitution effects between the consumption of own-produced and purchased foods. The analysis uses survey data from farm households in Kenya and a control function approach. Generalised propensity scores are employed to estimate continuous treatment effects. Commercialisation significantly improves food security and dietary quality in terms of calorie, zinc and iron consumption. For vitamin A, effects are insignificant. Commercialisation contributes to higher incomes and increased nutrients from purchased foods, but it does not reduce the consumption of nutrients from own-produced foods. Enhancing market access is important not only for rural economic growth, but also for making smallholder agriculture more nutrition-sensitive.     

Regional obesity determinants in the United States: a model of myopic addictive behavior in food consumption

Obesity is considered one of the largest public health problems in the United States today. The premise for our study is a body of results from medical research showing that sweetened foods, i.e., an increased consumption of sugars, leads first to sugar addiction and second to carbohydrate addiction and increased consumption of fats. The latter feature is actually responsible for the increase in body mass index (BMI), but the trigger that produces cravings for extra calories is sugar and sweeteners. Based on our results, a myopic model of addictive behavior in food consumption seems to capture the food consuming habits and related outbreak of obesity among the American population. Our results indicate that lower current and past real prices of sugar contribute significantly to higher values of BMI, and increase the likelihood of becoming obese in the United States.     

How do obese people afford to be obese? Consumption strategies of Russian households

This article investigates the extent to which Russian households that differ in their members’ weight status adjust their food consumption differently when their economic resources change. Using household‐panel data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1995 to 2005, we estimate total expenditure elasticities of food expenditures, food quantities, and food quality for normal‐weight, overweight, and obese households, respectively. The expenditure elasticities of quality derived for obese households for meat, bread, fruits, and dairy were found to be 15–20% higher than those of normal households. Hence, a change in economic resources causes obese households to adjust the quality of purchased foods significantly more flexibly than normal‐weight households. Only few differences were found for quantity and expenditure reactions. Our results emphasize that policies aiming to reduce obesity should consider deviations in consumption behavior of normal and obese consumers in terms of quality.     

National Food Consumption Patterns: Converging Trends and the Implications for Health

Worldwide, obesity almost tripled between 1975 and 2016 and is now prevalent in both rich and poor countries. Using annual food availability data produced by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) covering half a century in 118 countries, this article explores the diets that are central to the problem of obesity, identifying groups of countries with similar consumption patterns. Applying algorithms from the fuzzy clustering literature, five distinct consumption patterns are revealed whose dietary composition broadly corresponds to diets that we label ‘Western’, ‘Traditional’, ‘Mediterranean’, ‘Tropical’ and ‘Vegetarian’. Despite differences in dietary characteristics, all five share two common themes: rising total calories and declining healthiness, both of which are linked to the substitution of plant-based foods with food derived from animals. That the evidence points to a convergence on the ‘Western’ diet, the most obesogenic and least healthy of all the diets we consider, is a cause for concern. The key message is that in a future where people are predicted to live longer – but not necessarily healthier – lives, recent efforts to address the challenge are prescient, and as the results in the article imply, need to be heeded globally.     

The effects of food sales taxes on household food spending: An application of a censored cluster model

This study proposes a model of household food spending that accounts for zero censoring and can be applied to data collected through a clustered survey design to investigate the impact of food sales taxes on three groups: households who are eligible for and participate in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), households who are eligible but do not participate in the program, and households who are not eligible for the program. We find that SNAP participating households are largely insensitive to grocery taxes and respond to restaurant taxes by shifting more of their food dollars towards at-home foods. Among households who are eligible for SNAP but do not participate in the program, grocery taxes reduce spending on foods purchased for at-home consumption, and thereby increase the amount of the total food budget allocated to away from home foods. This is concerning from a nutrition and health standpoint since away from home foods tend to be more calorie dense and nutritionally poorer than at home foods.     

The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is ?6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.     

The impact of food price increases on caloric intake in China

World food prices have increased dramatically in recent years. We use panel data from 2006 to examine the impact of these increases on the consumption and nutrition of poor households in two Chinese provinces. We find that households in Hunan suffered no nutrition declines. Households in Gansu experienced a small decline in calories, though the decline is on par with usual seasonal effects. The overall nutritional impact of the world price increase was small because households were able to substitute to cheaper foods and because the domestic prices of staple foods remained low due to government intervention in grain markets.     

The nutrition transition and agricultural transformation: a Preston curve approach

The nutrition transition in diets and health is closely tied to other aspects of economic development, including agricultural transformation and urbanization as well as demographic change and epidemiological transition from infectious to noncommunicable disease. Over time, dietary patterns typically shift from widespread inadequacy of many foods and nutrients, especially for children and mothers, into surplus energy intake and rising obesity with continued inadequacy of healthier foods. Diet‐related diseases remain the largest single cause of premature death and disability in all regions. This article combines food availability and dietary intake data from more than 100 countries over 30 years with a wide range of other evidence to characterize the nutrition transition and its association with changes in agricultural production and the food environment, asking how future dietary patterns might be steered toward healthier outcomes as national incomes grow.     

Analysis of food demand in Vietnam and short‐term impacts of market shocks on quantity and calorie consumption

A complete demand system for Vietnam was estimated using household survey data. Results showed that demand for rice with respect to prices and expenditure is relatively inelastic compared to other foods. Demand for food in general tends to be less elastic at higher levels of income and for urban households. In the short term, a market shock such as a 10% decrease in income or a 30% increase in rice prices forces households to spend a larger portion of their expenditure on rice at the expense of other foods. Low‐income households face a higher risk of undernourishment as their daily calorie intake is more negatively affected by the shocks than high‐income households. The results suggest the importance of policies that provide necessary safety net programs for the poor.     

Food Preferences and Ethnicity

Policies to curb food imports in food deficit Sahelian countries have been unsuccessful. Sahelian countries are ethnically diverse and each group has demonstrated strong preferences for cereals and other foods. Yet, research on the consequences of expressed food preferences on food production, consumption, and importation is limited. In this paper, the effects of ethnic identity and income class on food consumption choices were investigated. The results showed that all consumers, use the same criteria in evaluating a given set of foods irrespective of ethnic group, or income class. Ethnic groups and income classes choose a given food basket, which maximizes their welfare, if the same criteria are used in making their food choices.     

Consumers’ Trust in Food Quality and Willingness to Pay More for National Parks’ Brands: Preliminary Evidence From Italy

In Italy, national parks allow the use of their brand logo and name on the labels of food products produced by firms located within the national parks. However, no empirical research has yet investigated the impact of national park brands on consumers’ attitudes and behaviors. Hence, this empirical study explores the factors that influence consumer trust in food quality and their willingness to pay premium prices for the national park brands. Results from a survey involving a sample of 227 Italian consumers suggest that women and younger consumers trust more and are more willing to pay for national park brands. The origin of food products associated with national parks, naturalness of foods, food quality certifications and branding, and the environment in which the packaged foods originate influence consumer confidence and buying behavior. Implications for food marketers and policymakers are discussed.     

Requirements for Skill,Training and Retraining in the Mexican Food and Drink Industry

The Mexican food and drink industry has been producing for a more standardized consumer market. The influence of North American and European habits on Mexican traditional habits is very strong, and this population is rapidly coming to be part of the global market. The traditional Mexican foods and drinks are being processed by Mexican and American companies, including new formulas of low calories of healthy diet At the same time, the changes in the food and drink industry requires training in the management of the new biotechnologies and the aspects of business administration and vocational-technical education, in order to increase their competition with its processed products in the internal and also the international markets, through efficiency and quality.     

The effect of violent conflict on calorie consumption and dietary quality in Iraq

By combining 2012 Living Standard Measurement Survey cross-sectional survey responses and georeferenced conflict data, this study quantifies the effect of violent conflict on food security and dietary quality in Iraq. Specifically, it estimates the effect of physical insecurity on different food security dimensions, including caloric consumption and household dietary diversity. Because disrespecting war-related foreign national cemeteries is a war crime that discourages nearby fighting, instrumenting conflict intensity by the exogenous variation in distance between these sites and household place of residence addresses potential sources of bias. The instrumental variable analysis confirms the positive (negative) effect of conflict—deriving from state, non-state and one-sided violence (e.g., attacks by the Islamic State)—on per capita caloric consumption (household dietary diversity), which although counterintuitive is unsurprising given Iraq's relatively high-income levels and changes in dietary pattern. Given that the primary driver of conflict's positive effect on calories is increased consumption of carbohydrates and, to a lesser extent, saturated fat, these results suggest that in countries transitioning to Western-style diets, violent conflict may drive the population toward an unhealthier diet, contributing heavily to a growing national prevalence of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases.     

Have health claims affected demand for fats and meats in Canada?

Chronic illness is a global epidemic and places significant economic and social burdens on societies. Research has shown that a healthy diet can be used to mitigate or significantly reduce the risk of many chronic illnesses. Health authorities around the world have begun regulating health claims on foods to encourage the consumption of healthy foods. However, the “ex post” efficacy of health claims regulations on consumers demand for healthy foods has not been assessed. The demand for fats and meats in Canada is estimated using a linear-approximate almost ideal demand system. The results indicate health claims decreased unhealthy food demand between 1.41% and 7.10% and increased healthy food demand between 1.95% and 8.50%.     

Dietary Globalization in Chinese Breakfasts

Demand for nontraditional foods is on the rise in China. Data from household surveys and consumer food diaries in Beijing, Nanjing, and Chengdu are examined to measure the effects of demographics on consumption of nontraditional food products. We focus on bakery and dairy products, two categories of foods that are rarely consumed in traditional Chinese breakfasts. We find that income, time constraints, and education positively affect the inclusion of nontraditional foods in the breakfast meal. Our results suggest that younger consumers are leading the transition to new global consumption patterns that integrate nontraditional foods into urban Chinese breakfasts. The implications of these findings for wheat and milk production and processing industries are discussed.     

The Importance of taste in experimental auctions: consumers’ valuation of calorie and sweetener labeling of soft drinks

A majority of purchases that consumers make are classified as repeat purchases. One of the main reasons why consumers make repeat food purchases is the food's taste. Therefore, we examined the importance of including taste testing in nonhypothetical experimental auctions. Specifically, we used two experiments to determine consumers’ willingness to pay for soft drinks labeled with different calorie and sweetener information. In Experiment 1, participants tasted the soft drinks prior to the bidding rounds. In Experiment 2, participants did not taste the soft drinks prior to the bidding rounds. Bidding behavior for the soft drinks was significantly different between Experiment 1 and Experiment 2. Results suggest that including taste testing in the design of experimental auctions is important to accurately capture consumers’ willingness to pay for foods that are purchased repeatedly. Results also imply that policies aimed at combating obesity by making the calorie content of foods more visible may not produce desired outcomes.     

Floods,food security,and coping strategies: Evidence from Afghanistan

In this paper, we assess the long‐term effect of floods on food security (as measured by calorie and micronutrient consumption) by applying an instrumental variable approach to data from the Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey. To identify the determinants of this effect, we also estimate how floods affect per capita yearly household income and poverty status. We find that exposure to flooding during a 12‐month period decreased daily calorie consumption by approximately 60 kcal while increasing the probability of iron, vitamin A, and vitamin C deficiency by 11, 12, and 27 percentage points, respectively. Controlling for price shocks and income only marginally reduces this flood effect on food security, suggesting that impaired livelihoods (rather than price hikes) are its primary driver. We further determine that exposure to this natural disaster decreases income by about 3% and makes flood‐affected households about 3 percentage points more likely to be poor. Lastly, we show that experience of floods is strongly and significantly associated with lower diet quality and quantity, and with engaging in consumption smoothing coping strategies, such as buying food on credit and taking loans. These findings underscore the serious direct impact of floods on both diet and effective behavioral responses to such shocks while emphasizing the need for targeted micronutrient supplementation in disaster relief and food aid measures even after the period of natural disaster emergency.     

Factors Affecting the Extent to which Consumers Incorporate Functional Ingredients into their Diets

This study considers the factors that explain the consumption of food and beverages with functional ingredients to avert or offset health problems. We use an instrumental variables Poisson regression model to deal with the endogeneity of perceived health status in functional ingredient use. The first stage results indicate that perceived health status is associated with attitude towards functional foods, food consumption motives and information seeking and being female. The second stage results suggest that individuals who consume more functional ingredients tend to have a positive attitude towards functional foods, are novelty‐seeking, female and older. As expected, consumption of functional ingredients is more likely when consumers’ self‐reports indicate that they are aware of functional foods’ nutritional value and the link with their own health. Consistent with previous research, most of the socio‐demographics are poor predictors of functional ingredient consumption.     

Food Consumption Trends in the Pacific Rim

The growing affluence of the Pacific Rim countries has changed food consumption patterns. Diets in the region have become more diverse and well-balanced nutritionally. Western-style foods are becoming increasingly popular and available to people in the region. The rapid growth of fast-food chains and supermarkets present U.S. agricultural exporters with a myriad of opportunities for exporting food products to the Pacific Rim. Food producers who are willing to modify their products to the tastes of Pacific Rim consumers will have the most success. By reformulating food products and developing new packaging technologies more high-value foods can be sold in the Pacific Rim. U.S. food processors must also develop improved methods of processing traditional foods eaten by people in the region into more convenient forms. Finally, it is important for U.S. agricultural exporters to keep a close watch on the changing trends in food consumption in the region in order to stay competitive and increase their opportunities for entering new markets.