Reducing Investment Risk in Tractors and Combines with Improved Terminal Asset Value Forecasts

Secondary asset market data for combines and tractors are used to estimate and separate out historical economic depreciation, embodied technological change and time value change. Combines and tractors generally exhibit constant geometric economic depreciation on a year-to-year basis. Depreciation rates vary by manufacturer. Farm investors can use these manufacturer-specific depreciation rates reported here to estimate terminal asset values. The study finds significant seasonal differences in machinery depreciation rates. A major source of error in forecasting terminal asset values comes from changes related to time. There is a predictable time component to the constant quality asset index that has not been investigated in previous studies. Unanticipated shocks to demand should be followed by price reversion to long-run average manufacturing costs as industry capacity adjusts to demand. This reversion component is predicable. Investment risk over longer planning horizons may be lower when both depreciation coefficients and time component estimates are employed.     

CONSTANT-QUALITY PRICE INDICES FOR AGRICULTURAL INPUTS: TRACTORS AND FERTILISERS REVISITED

This paper employs the hedonic regression technique to construct constant-quality price indices and quality change indices for two agricultural inputs - tractors and fertilisers - over the period since World War II in the UK. The technique is described and related to productivity measurement in order to show its relevance for measuring price changes for inputs subject to technological improvement. Problems of application are discussed with reference to the two inputs. The constant-quality price indices derived for tractors and fertilisers are briefly compared with available ‘official’ price series     

The impact of water price uncertainty on the adoption of precision irrigation systems

We examine whether a firm is more or less likely to adopt precision technology when input prices are stochastic. The results are important to determining whether programs and contracts that reduce input price uncertainty may deter the adoption of conservation practices. An economic model of the technology adoption decision shows that the net effect of input price risk is ambiguous and depends on several factors including the shutdown effect, the mean price effect, the precision expansion effect, and the risk aversion effect. An empirical implementation of the model relies on data on water price and irrigation technology adoption observed in a California irrigation district over the period 1999–2002. The results show that a stable input price increases the adoption of precision technology, but the impact depends on crop choice and land quality characteristics.     

The transformation of the Indian agricultural input industry: has it increased agricultural R&D?

Indian agricultural input industries have gone through a major transformation in the last 40 years. State owned firms grew during the Green Revolution and then stagnated or declined. Indian corporations that were protected from foreign competition are now exporters of agricultural tractors and pesticides. Foreign multinational corporations are rapidly increasing their role in the seed, pesticide, and tractor industries. Entry by large Indian firms and multinationals has increased competition in the input industries. Private agribusiness R&D in India grew from $23 million in 1985 to $250 million in 2009 in 2005 US dollars. This is the same time period as a transformation in the agricultural input industry, rapid growth in demand for agricultural inputs, breakthroughs in information technology and biotechnology, and changes in intellectual property rights. An econometric model was used to test whether the transformation of agricultural input industry was a major factor in the growth of R&D expenditure or not. This article analyzes a unique, firm level sales and R&D data set from the seed, pesticide, tractor, and fertilizer industries in 2000–2009. The estimated model indicates that agribusiness firms' R&D expenditures from 2000 to 2009 were positively related to variables associated with industry transformation such as firm size, ownership by multinationals, and declining industry concentration. The model also indicates that strengthening patent policy as well as growth in the size of research‐intensive industries like the seed industry contributed to the growth of agribusiness R&D in India.     

FERTILISER PRICES AND QUALITY CHANGE: Construction of Fertiliser Price and Quantity Indices for Great Britain, 1956/57 to 1968/69*

Data series on input prices and quantities are often required for econometric analysis and productivity measurement in the agricultural sector. The authors suggest that if such analyses are to be meaningful, the index measures of input prices and quantities should make allowance for quality change where this occurs. With this end in mind, the paper reviews a procedure for computing a constant quality price index and a variable quality quantity index and applies the method to British fertiliser data for the time period 1956/57 to 1968/69. In the process of computing these indices for fertiliser, separate price indices for the nutrients, nitrogen, phosphate and potash are presented.     

Energy‐saving Technology Choices by Dutch Glasshouse Firms

This paper estimates a sequence of energy‐saving technology choices by Dutch glasshouse firms. The model allows for time‐constant, firm‐specific effects and serial correlation of errors and it is estimated on panel data over the period 1991–1995. The unobserved error sequences are simulated in the model in such a way that they are consistent with the observed choices. The results suggest that positive revenue shocks encourage adoption of new technologies. The choices also exhibit firm‐specific persistency over time. An increase of the price of energy encourages the adoption of a highly efficient energy‐saving technology. The probability of investing in energy‐saving technologies also decreases with capital invested in structures (e.g. double glazing of glasshouses) and increases with capital in energy installations.     

Capacity Depreciation, Implicit Rental Price, and Investment Demand for Farm Tractors in Canada

Among the different factors pertaining to the demand for durable inputs in agriculture, the way the input depreciates over time is an important issue. This study investigates four alternative capacity depreciation patterns for farm tractors. While published estimates from government agencies implicitly assume convex capacity depreciation patterns, the results of this study demonstrate that the use of agricultural engineering data which depict a concave rather than convex pattern better reflect farmers' investment decisions. An implicit rental price measure is also proposed to account for the fact that the purchase price of a durable input is not an appropriate measure of the implicit rental cost of the asset.
Parmi les facteurs déterminants de la demande pour les biens durables en agriculture, la rapidité avec laquelle I'intrant se déprécie est certainement importante lors des décisions d'investissement. La présente etude analyse quatre différents scénarios de dépréciation pour les tracteurs agricoles au Canada. Bien que les données publiées par les agences gouver-nementales supposent implicitement que les biens durables se déprécient à un taux annuel constant, les résultats de cette etude montrent que I'utilisation de données basées sur la valeur productive de I'intrant telle que calculée sur une base expkrimentale donne de meil-leurs résultats statistiques dans I'estimation de la demande pour les tracteurs agricoles. De plus, une mesure du coût implicite de I'intrant est également proposée pour tenir compte du fait que le prix d'achat n'est pas une mesure appropriée dans I'analyse de la demande pour un bien durable.     

TEXTILE FIBRE SUBSTITUTION AND RELATIVE PRICES

The elasticity of substitution between textile fibres is investigated within a CES production function in which the fibres are grouped according to degree of substitutability. Disaggregated data for U.S. textile usage in the post-war period are examined and the elasticities estimated are generally above unity. The conclusion is reached that, while technical change and diffusion may have explained changing fibre shares in certain, usually specialized end-uses and contributed to the explanation in others, in most end-uses relative price change has been an important factor.     

THE MECHANISATION OF BRITISH FARMING, 1910–1945

Both tractors and milking machines were available to British farmers from the early 19OO's, but the mechanisation of field work and of dairy farming was not general until the 1950's. This paper discusses the technical difficulties of early forms of farm machinery, and the reorganisation of farm work which was required to use the machinery efficiently. Tractors were at first adopted for heavy work, thus easing the pressure on, and increasing the efficiency of, the horses. It was not until after the second world war that tractors and their implements became sufficiently reliable and versatile to supplant horses in all farm operations and to change an important constraint upon the structure of farms and the methods of working them.     

Structural changes in Swedish wastepaper demand: a variable cost function approach

The primary purpose of this paper is to analyse the short-run price responsiveness of wastepaper demand in Sweden for four different paper and board products, as well as any structural changes in demand behaviour for these products over time. The analysis is done within a variable Translog cost function model, and we employ data for individual paper and board mills over the time period 1974-1994. The results suggest that the short-run own-price sensitivity of waste paper demand is relatively high compared to those of other input factors, and it has also tended to increase over time for some of the paper products. In addition, wastepaper demand has also become more sensitive to changes in energy prices, and its use increases with increases in the price of energy. However, the relationship between wastepaper and woodpulp is more complex, and in many instances wastepaper and woodpulp are short-run complements. Overall this implies that price based recycling policies will be relatively successful in promoting wastepaper use, but they will not necessarily lead to the conservation of virgin forest resources.     

Optimal Markup Decisions under Demand Uncertainty

This article examines the consistency with economic theory of a rule of thumb in which a risk-averse firm facing demand uncertaintly sets its price based on a percentage over the price paid to farmers. A testable set of comparative static results determines how the optimal markup is influenced by shifts in key parameters affecting the firm: expected demand, demand uncertainty and average variable costs. The model is tested using data from the wholesale markets for organic lettuce, broccoli and carrots. The results demonstrate that risk-averse wholesalers raise markups as expected demand increases and reduce them as uncertainty increases, consistent with risk-averse behavior. The empirical models show that produce marketing agents monitor shifts in expected demand and demand variability when adjusting markups. Expected demand has a greater impact on markups than demand variability.     

The Value of Dairy Quota under a Commercial Export Milk Program

This paper argues that under a commercial export milk program, the market value of quota will be determined by the spread between the domestic market price and the export price, rather than the conventional wisdom that it is determined by the spread between the domestic milk price and the marginal cost of production. Under this new economy, it is argued that ultimately the market price of dairy quota will be priced independently of firm marginal costs, which implies that low-cost (or high-margin) producers will not hold an economic advantage in bidding for quota over higher-cost producers. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesized positive relationship between quota values and the difference between domestic and export milk price. The average export price has generally increased over time and is approximately equal to the marginal cost for an average producer. The results have implications for a World Trade Organization (WTO) challenge. New Zealand and the United States feel the domestic program acts as an export subsidy by cross-subsidizing production of commercial export milk. The results here suggest that the prices for the filled export contracts are approximately the marginal cost of production for the average producer and not lower, as suggested by the challenge. Export contracts were found to have higher price risk than domestically produced milk. The risk is compounded by the short-term nature of most export contracts. The increase in risk for the commercial export milk program (CEM) implies that it is unlikely many farmers will greatly diversify into CEM contracts unless the uncertainty is reduced.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL TRACTOR INVESTMENT MODELS

An implicit rental price approach is used to analyse the determinants of farm tractor investment at the aggregate level. Three models, based on different assumed factor substitutabilities, are compared. Variations in the rental price of tractors appear to have less effect on demand than variations in factors affecting the profitability of the cropping enterprise as a whole. The implications for forecasting and for policy instruments, such as the investment allowance, are discussed.     

On the nature and magnitude of cost economies in hog production

In this article, we assess the impact of farm size on production cost and evaluate the marginal costs and margins by considering that input prices may change with the scale of production. By using French hog farm data, we estimate a system of equations including a feed price function, input demand functions, and an output supply function based on a technology approximated by a combined generalized Leontief‐Quadratic form. Our results suggest that the marginal costs are over‐estimated when the adjustment of the feed unit prices to a change in farm size is not controlled for. More specifically, the cost economies for large farms (enjoying the highest profits) arise primarily from lower feed prices, with technological scale economies having little impact. In contrast, farms with no hired labor exhibit technological scale economies and reach higher price‐cost margins compared to larger farms.     

Notes on farm‐retail price transmission and marketing margin behavior

Perfect farm‐retail price transmission sometimes is taken to mean an elasticity of price transmission (EPT) equal to 1. We show that this definition is inconsistent with Gardner's (1975) model. We also show that the absolute marketing margin (defined as the difference between the retail price and farm price) responds differently to shifts in retail demand, input supply, and technical change in the marketers’ production function than does the relative marketing margin (defined as the ratio of the retail price to the farm price). The empirical implications of these results are discussed in some detail.     

Tractors on eBay: Differences between Internet and In-Person Auctions

We provide a systematic examination of the differences between Internet and in-person auction prices for used tractors. A hedonic model estimated with transactions pooled between eBay and in-person auctions reveals statistically distinct price surfaces for the two auction venues and predicts significantly lower prices for comparable equipment sold on eBay, though this difference is attenuated for tractors fully covered by eBay's buyer protection program and is fully absent for the most frequently traded tractor. An endogenous venue selection model reveals that larger, more valuable tractors from states with more valuable stocks of machinery are more likely to be offered on eBay.     

劳动力价格、信息不对称与农户精细管理技术投入——基于质量识别能力差异的视角

近年来,劳动力价格的快速上涨已然成为中国农业生产所必须面对的内在挑战。对于机械作业难度相对较大的劳动密集型作物而言,在缓解劳动力约束瓶颈的同时,更应通过精细化的果园管理,以提高产品质量,进而提高其市场价格。然而,由于农产品具有典型的经验品属性,在信息不对称的外部约束下,农户通常难以获得应有的"质量溢价"。基于此,本文通过构建理论分析框架,以果品质量关键环节的精细管理技术作为研究对象,系统分析在劳动力价格上涨背景下农户精细管理技术投入的决策机制,以及在不同农产品质量识别程度中,劳动力成本变化对其影响的异质性,并基于全国18个省份农户的调研数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明:农户交易对象质量识别能力的提高,能够缓解农户与购买者之间存在的信息不对称性,将农产品质量信息传递给购买者,使农户获得更高的销售价格,进而在有效提高农户精细管理技术投入水平的同时,能够弱化劳动力价格对其所产生的负面影响。     

NET INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL TRACTORS

This essay considers investment in agricultural tractors in the UK, and examines and compares econometric models of investment. A net investment series is calculated from quality-adjusted gross investment figures, showing limited negative net investment over time but with substantial variability. Four time-series modelling techniques are compared as representations of the demand for tractors over the period 1964 to 1990; these are the accelerator (clay-clay), neo-classical (putty-putty), expectations augmented neo-classical (putty-clay) and ad hoc models. Model results support the use of an expectations augmented, neo-classical model of net investment in a partial adjustment framework. Future expectations of agricultural policy are considered as a major influence on investment, an aspect that backwards-looking expectations models only partially represent.     

MARKETING MARGINS IN THE MEAT SECTOR,ENGLAND AND WALES 1978–1987

The paper presents a basic analysis of price spread data for beef, lamb and pork over the period 1978 to 1987. The results are reviewed in the light of existing margin theory in order to assess how far the characteristics of price and margin behaviour today differ from those highlighted in earlier work. It is concluded that while short run behaviour is well explained, further research is required if we are to fully understand the factors influencing the longer term development of margins in the meat sector.     

Measuring managerial efficiency: the case of commercial greenhouse growers

Recently the managerial decision making process has been given new attention, both in theoretical studies as well as in empirical research explaining differences in farm results. However, while critical to explaining efficiency, managerial ability has been difficult to measure and therefore often ignored. This study attempts to measure managerial ability. It divides the decision making process into four steps: goal formulation, planning, monitoring and evaluation. The quality of each step is measured in a panel of 26 specialised flower producers, The impact of decision making on the firms' efficiencies is measured by means of a stochastic frontier production function. A one‐step procedure is used in which technical and decision making parameters are jointly estimated. The results show positive associations between firm efficiency and the quality of decision making (especially monitoring and firm evaluation), indicating that this procedure has been potentially successful and is a move towards successfully measuring a critical input.