Eliciting farmers’ subjective probabilities,risk, and uncertainty preferences using contextualized field experiments

Subjective probabilities as well as risk and uncertainty preferences influence many farmers’ decisions. Few contextualized field experiments were recently conducted to elicit farmers’ risk preferences. Contextualized field experiments use nonabstract framings that are familiar to subjects. Despite adding of context can undermine internal validity, such experiments are increasingly used in applied economics. Contextualized field experiments were never used to elicit farmers’ uncertainty preferences. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature. This required the development of a new approach in which uncertainty preferences were estimated while controlling for farmers’ subjective probabilities regarding future agricultural outcomes. The experiment involves Scottish farmers’ decisions to plant traditional or new potato varieties. Monetary incentives and incentive compatible elicitation techniques, such as quadratic scoring rules and certainty equivalent multiple price lists, were used. Results from the estimation of Fechner models using maximum likelihood estimation procedures show that failure to control for subjective probabilities generates an underestimation of estimated uncertainty preferences. Farmers are more averse to uncertainty than risk, and their choices are noisier under uncertainty than risk.     

Demand for Crop Insurance in Developing Countries: New Evidence from India

Determining farmers’ real demand for crop insurance is difficult, especially in developing countries, where there is a lack of formal financial sector integration and a high reliance on informal risk mitigation options. We provide some new estimates of farmers’ willingness‐to‐pay for insurance in the context of a large‐scale subsidised programme in India. We conducted a discrete choice experiment with agricultural households across four states in India, enabling us to estimate preferences for specific insurance policy attributes such as coverage period, method of loss assessment, timing of indemnity payments and the cost of insurance. Our results suggest that farmers do value crop insurance under certain conditions and some are willing to pay a premium for such coverage in excess of the subsidised rates they are currently required to pay under this programme. In particular, farmers value the assurances that they will receive timely payouts when they incur losses, and may not have a strong preference for the method with which losses are assessed. On the other hand, farmers are quite sensitive to coverage periods. Our baseline assessment shows that when optimised to farmer requirements, there can be a sizeable demand for crop insurance by developing country farmers.     

Contract farming and smallholder incentives to produce high quality: experimental evidence from the Vietnamese dairy sector

In emerging markets for high‐value food products in developing countries, processing companies search for efficient ways to source raw material of high quality. One widely embraced approach is contract farming. But relatively little is known about the appropriate design of financial incentives in a small farm context. We use the example of the Vietnamese dairy sector to analyze the effectiveness of existing contracts between a processor and smallholder farmers in terms of incentivizing the production of high quality milk. A framed field experiment is conducted to evaluate the impact of two incentive instruments, a price penalty for low quality and a bonus for consistent high quality milk, on farmers’ investment in quality‐improving inputs. Statistical analysis suggests that the penalty drives farmers into higher input use, resulting in better output quality. The bonus payment generates even higher quality milk. We also find that input choice levels depend on farmers’ socio‐economic characteristics such as wealth, while individual risk preferences seem to be less important. Implications for the design of contracts with smallholders are discussed.     

The impact of index‐insured loans on credit market participation and risk‐taking

Index‐insured loans offer considerable advantages over standalone insurance policies for improving farmers’ access to agricultural credit. However, research on demand for such products and their impact on profitable investment decisions has been limited and conflicting. In this article, we investigate the impact of index insurance on demand for credit and investment decisions using a lab‐in‐the‐field experiment conducted in rural Tanzania. We find that index insurance increases demand for credit and high‐risk high‐return investments.     

Combining management plans and payment schemes for targeted grassland conservation within the Habitats Directive in Saxony,Eastern Germany

As central policies for biodiversity conservation in agricultural landscapes in the European Union (EU), the Habitats Directive and Agri-environmental programmes (AEP) have largely failed to halt biodiversity loss. In response, the German federal state of Saxony combined the instrument of management plans with AEPs to support the implementation of the Habitat Directive. In this study, we investigate the determinants of a farmers’ decisions to adjust their farming practices. Our data set consists of a quantitative survey with 131 farmers conducted between 2004 and 2011, complemented by implementation data from 333 grassland-plots. Determinants of farmers’ decisions to conserve grassland were estimated using a multinomial logit model. Our results show that a combination of management plans and AEPs can increase farmers’ disposition to adopt nature conservation measures. As central determinants, structural and location factors as well as the complementary provisiion of specifically designed AEPs increase farmers’ willingness to adopt conservation practices for grassland management. It can be concluded that additional costs are a major barrier to farmers’ adoption, particularly to those farms directing their farm management towards the optimisation of productivity and profitability . The findings highlight the complementary potential of integrated policy packages to incentivise specific measures of nature conservation within the framework of the Habitats Directive.     

Gender differences in marketing styles

Recent research has found that men trade stocks more frequently than women and receive a lower price as a result. The behavioral finance literature attributes this greater trading activity to men's overconfidence. Women's lack of overconfidence and past agricultural economics research suggest the possibility that women may be better at marketing grain than men. This article uses actual transactions of farmers marketing wheat and also finds that men trade more often than women. Women also sell two weeks later in the marketing year. There is no direct effect of gender on price received, but by storing longer women receive 1.4 cents/bushel less than men, on average. In contrast to the arguments in previous research, we argue that men's greater number of trades can be better explained by men enjoying trading rather than by overconfidence.     

Information Access and Smallholder Farmers’ Market Participation in Peru

Previous studies have documented the effect of information and communications technology (ICT) on farmers’ market participation. We employ a triple‐hurdle model to examine the effect of internet and phones on Peruvian smallholder farmers’ market participation, marketplace choice, and volume decisions using household‐level data from the IV National Agricultural Census of Peru in 2012. Double matching at the district‐ and household‐levels is implemented to address potential selection bias. Results indicate a positive direct effect of internet and phones on farmers’ market participation and volume decisions on the national market. Those with ICT access are more likely to sell on the foreign market than those without ICT access. The marginal effects suggest that internet access tends to have larger impacts on volume decisions than phones. In addition to direct effects, we find that internet access has significant and positive spillover effects on market participation and volume decisions in the national market. Without implementing matching procedures, the magnitude of the ICT effect tends to be smaller. Results provide empirical support for policies and social programmes that promote ICT especially internet usage in rural Peru to improve smallholder farmers’ marketing performance.     

Farmers’ Income and Production Responses to Rural Taxation Reform in Three Regions in China

The relationship between agricultural taxation and production efficiency has been thoroughly explored for many countries. Recently, China has taken various measures including the rural taxation reform (RTR) to promote grain production and to increase farmer incomes. In this study, we investigate whether the Chinese policy of abolishing rural taxation has improved farm households’ incomes and affected their production decisions. Using household survey data obtained from three regions in China, we estimate the effect of the RTR on farmers’ income. Results show that the RTR has significantly improved farmers’ post‐tax net income by 9.2% in Shandong, 16.9% in Shanxi and 16.8% in Zhejiang. These increments, mostly from farm income rather than from off‐farm income, are much higher than the direct income increase from the tax savings. In addition, we examine the dynamic impact of farmers’ net income, and find that the RTR has a sustained positive income effect in Shandong and Shanxi, whereas its positive effect in Zhejiang appears temporary. We also examine farmers’ production responses to the RTR. Results show that farmers in the three regions respond in different ways: farmers in Shandong significantly increase their labour input, farmers in Zhejiang increase intermediate inputs, whereas Shanxi farmers augment their intermediate inputs and enlarge their crop acreage. It appears that the farmers’ responses to the taxation reform vary due to the agronomic and economic factors in these three regions, suggesting that diverse post‐RTR supplemental policies should be implemented in different regions.     

Retirement farming or sustainable growth – land transfer choices for farmers without a successor

Ireland’s agriculture is characterised by an ageing farmer population and small average farm sizes. These structural issues are shared by a number of European countries and have been identified as barriers to sustainable growth in the sector. While farms with an identified successor usually enter a path of expansion and growth, farms without a successor at some point follow a route of winding down and extensification. Such retirement farming could potentially become an issue for food security and sustainable land use. Understanding the retirement decisions of farmers without a successor is key to address this issue. To this end a survey was conducted with Irish farmers including questions surrounding succession and retirement. About half of the surveyed farmers did not have a successor and two thirds of those did not intend to fully retire from active farming in the future. A logistic regression analysis of the collected data showed that placing a high value on family tradition in farming and only receiving a state pension had a negative effect on the intention to retire, while being aware of changing pension ages had a positive effect. A follow up qualitative study explored the perceptions of farmers without a successor regarding various land transfer options. The participants mainly anticipated negative consequences arising from selling the farm and full retirement such as the loss of land and the end of the farming activity. Other options such as the long-term leasing of part of the land or entering into a partnership with a younger farmer were regarded as having more positive consequences. These included a lowering of the workload, allowing a continuing involvement in farm work, and the ability to be able to stay on the farm.     

From Circle of Poison to Circle of Virtue: Pesticides,Export Standards and Kenya’s Green Bean Farmers

In response to growing consumer concerns, developed‐country governments have reduced permissible pesticide residue levels in food. Many food retailers have developed even more stringent private food safety protocols relating to pesticide use, storage and disposal and passed them on to their suppliers. Exporters in developing countries enforce these developed‐country pesticide standards (DC‐PS) by subjecting farmers to close monitoring. This study explores the effects of enforcing compliance with DC‐PS on smallholder farmers’ pesticide‐related health costs. Results suggest that enforcing DC‐PS encourages farmers to use protection that lowers pesticide‐induced morbidity, hence reducing farmers’ health costs from pesticide exposure. The study concludes that there are health benefits to family farmers from complying with DC‐PS beyond the acknowledged income generation from selling fresh produce in premium export markets.     

The influence of risk preferences,knowledge, land consolidation,and landscape diversification on pesticide use

Researchers have spent substantial effort to identify factors influencing pesticide use intensity. However, few studies have compared the relative importance of these factors. This study examines four categories of factors that potentially influence farmers’ pesticide use decisions by evaluating incentivized experiment data, farm survey data, and remote sensing data in China. Our results suggest that land diversification has the largest effect on farmers’ pesticide use. Compared with the most rice-intensive landscape type, less rice-intensive systems cause farmers to spray less on middle rice. Heavy pesticide use intensity is associated with land fragmentation as small-scale farms still dominate crop production. Farmers’ integrated pest management knowledge has significant effects on pesticide use. We also find that loss and ambiguity preferences, rather than risk preferences, are more likely to affect pesticide use intensity.     

Farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change under various property rights: A case study of maize farming in northern Benin (West Africa)

Making the assumption that property rights might determine whether farmers adopt particular strategies, this study aims at modelling farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change by focusing on their property rights – declined as institutional arrangements on land and rights on land – as well as their socio-economic and demographic characteristics. The case study took place in northern Benin (West Africa). In this zone, 308 farmers producing maize and adapting to climate change were randomly sampled. The study was conducted by a survey method on respondents using structured interviews based on a questionnaire. A simultaneous modelling using a Multivariate Probit (MVP) model highlighted that socio-economic and demographic characteristics, institutional arrangements on land, and rights on land determine the farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change. The land ownership has a positive effect on the decision to adopt any adaptation strategy. Subsequently, securing farmers’ property rights would help to enhance their capacity to adapt to climate change.     

Investing Today or Tomorrow? An Experimental Approach to Farmers’ Decision Behaviour

An understanding of farmers’ decision‐making behaviour is important for adequate forecasts as well as policy recommendations regarding structural changes. We experimentally analyse the investment behaviour of real farmers. The observed investment decisions are contrasted with theoretical benchmarks from classical investment theory and the real options approach. Our results show that both theories cannot exactly explain investment behaviour. However, farmers learn from former investment decisions and do consider the value of waiting over time.     

Adopting bioenergy crops: Does farmers’ attitude toward loss matter?

We apply prospect theory to examining farmers’ economic incentives to divert a share of their land to bioenergy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass in this study). Numerical simulation is conducted for 1,919 rain‐fed U.S. counties to identify the impact of loss aversion on bioenergy crop adoption, and how this impact is influenced by biomass price, discount rate, credit constraint status, and policy instruments. Results show that ignoring farmer's loss aversion causes overestimation of miscanthus production but underestimation of switchgrass production, particularly when farmers are credit constrained and have a high discount rate. We find that establishment cost subsidy induces more miscanthus production whereas subsidized energy crop insurance induces more switchgrass production. The efficacy of these two policy instruments, measured by biomass production increased by per dollar of government outlay, depends on the magnitude of farmers’ loss aversion and discount rate.     

Assessing the Impact of the ‘Decoupling’ Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Irish Farmers’ Off‐farm Labour Market Participation Decisions

This paper assesses the impact of the ‘decoupling’ reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on the labour allocation decisions of Irish farmers. The agricultural household decision‐making model provides the conceptual and theoretical framework to examine the interaction between government subsidies and farmers’ time allocation decisions. The relationship postulated is that ‘decoupling’ of agricultural support from production would probably result in a decline in the return to farm labour but it would also lead to an increase in household wealth. The effect of these factors on how farmers allocate their time is tested empirically using labour participation and labour supply models. The models developed are sufficiently general for application elsewhere. The main findings for the Irish situation are that the decoupling of direct payments is likely to increase the probability of farmers participating in the off‐farm employment market and that the amount of time allocated to off‐farm work will increase.     

Price premiums,payment delays,and default risk: understanding developing country farmers’ decisions to market through a cooperative or a private trader

Smallholder farmers in developing countries face a competitive disadvantage in modern agricultural supply chains. Joint marketing through cooperatives is a potential tool to mitigate these disadvantages; yet cooperatives’ success in these settings is uneven at best. We develop an analytical model to study a farmer's choice of selling to a private trader who pays cash on delivery but may exercise market power or a cooperative that promises a price premium but delays payment and carries a concomitant risk of default. In the presence of impatient and risk‐averse farmers, we show that these factors can severely limit smallholder patronage of a cooperative, despite a promised price premium. We then construct and parameterize a simulation model to fit a profile of heterogeneous farmers within a prototype developing‐country village, and study the optimal decisions of farmers regarding marketing through a cooperative versus a private trader. Results suggest that modest improvements in either timeliness of payment or probability of default can induce a substantial increase in a cooperative's market share and economic viability. Extending the simulation analysis to a dynamic setting shows how implementing reasonable policies to improve a cooperative's payment timeliness and default probability can markedly improve its growth trajectory.     

The Cost Effects of Government‐Subsidised Credit: Evidence from Farmers’ Credit Unions in Taiwan

We investigate government‐subsidised credit effects on participating financial institutions’ performance in terms of cost efficiency. Using farmers’ credit unions in Taiwan as an example, we find that credit unions’ cost inefficiency is positively correlated with the extent of involvement in subsidy programmes. The results are robust to the control of local competition and labour quality. In addition to the stochastic frontier models from which we obtain the main results, we also propose a new distribution‐free estimation method based on quantile regressions. Results of this study point out that, when evaluating the social costs of the credit programmes, it is important to take into account the efficiency loss generated among financial intermediaries by credit subsidy programmes.     

What Do Farmers Want From Agri‐Environmental Scheme Design? A Choice Experiment Approach

Agri‐environmental schemes (AES) have had a limited effect on European agriculture due to farmers’ reluctance to participate. Information on how farmers react when AES characteristics are modified can be an important input to the design of such policies. This article investigates farmers’ preferences for different design options in a specific AES aimed at encouraging nitrogen fixing crops in marginal dry‐land areas in Spain. We use a choice experiment survey conducted in two regions (Aragón and Andalusia). The analysis employs an error component random parameter logit model allowing for preference heterogeneity and correlation amongst the non‐status quo alternatives. Farmers show a strong preference for maintaining their current management strategies; however, significant savings in cost or increased participation can be obtained by modifying some AES attributes.     

基层农技服务供给模式的变迁与小农的技术获取困境

在农业转型的背景下,小农户存在修正既有生产方式和获取日常性生产指导的技术刚需。但基层农技服务供给却呈现了"行政上移与市场主导"的双重特征。农业部门不再建设基层服务力量,县级提供的公益性技术服务以回应国家农业政策导向为核心,而彻底偏离了农民的生产技术需求。以技术为辅助性销售手段的农资经销体系成为了乡村社会的技术主导。这种以"卖货"为核心的技术供给模式,虽然一定程度上拓展了农民的技术服务资源,却加剧了小农户的技术获取困境,并直接影响农民的生产方式:技术服务的极度碎片化使得农民生产过程中技术与技术、技术与实践之间的协调性极差;技术供给内容异化不断提高生产资料成本和生产难度;更为重要的是农资经销体系的转型使得小农户进一步被农技服务市场边缘化。因而,基层农技服务体系迫切需要廓清行政主体和市场主体的功能,并建设有效的乡村服务力量,以保证小农户与农业技术的有效衔接。