Rural credit and agricultural supply in Brazil

The objective of this study is to determine the financing impact of total expenditure on the use of agriculture inputs (fertilizers, labor, and pesticides), and the output of cotton, rice, beans, corn, soybean, and wheat in Brazil. We study the period 1976–2005. The analysis is based on duality applied to the production theory. The output supplies and conditioned input demands are estimated from a translog multi‐output, multi‐input restricted profit function, where the total production credit is used as proxy of the total expenditure. Farmer expectations with respect to crop prices are incorporated to the estimation based on the quasi‐rational expectation model. The output and input responses to the total expenditure are positive and statistically significant except for cotton, wheat, fertilizer, and pesticides. The short‐run output supply response to own prices is inelastic, except for wheat, which presents elastic response to its price. Acreage has a positive impact on the output supply and it is influenced by land productivity. The main conclusion is that farmers face budget restrictions to purchase inputs, and a government credit program might increase the agricultural supply.     

The Influence of Labor Price Change on Agricultural Machinery Usage in Chinese Agriculture

The substitution between rural labor and machinery has been a key determinant of farm production, structure, and efficiency in most developed countries and is expected to play a key role in shaping the future of Chinese agriculture. Using disaggregated farm‐level data from Hebei and Shandong provinces of China, we calculated the Allen and Morishima elasticities of substitution between labor and machinery. These elasticities were based on seemingly unrelated regressions and three‐stage least squares estimates of the translog cost function and input cost share functions. In contrast to previous studies, we dissaggregate machinery inputs into three categories: large, medium, and small. In addition, the issue of endogeneity in output quantity and input prices is also addressed. The results show strong evidence of substitution between labor and the three categories of machinery inputs. The findings also support substitution among the three categories of machinery themselves.     

Effects of supermarket monopsony pricing on agriculture

Potential effects of alleged monopsony pricing of farm food products by supermarkets on farm product prices, quantities, incomes and land values are assessed relative to competitive behaviour. A long‐run comparative static equilibrium model is used. For export‐competing and import‐competing products, the farm food input supply curve facing the supermarkets is close to perfectly elastic and this limits monopsony behaviour. At the margin, the opportunity to reallocate agricultural land between traded and nontraded farm products means a highly elastic supply function for nontraded food inputs facing supermarkets and very limited monopsony effects.     

Empirical investigation of investment behaviour in Australia's pastoral region*

Optimal intertemporal investment behaviour of Australian pastoralists is modelled using panel data for the period 1979–1993. Results indicate that quasi‐fixity of inputs of labour, capital, sheep numbers and cattle numbers is characteristic of production in the pastoral region. It takes about two years for labour, four years for capital and a little over two years for both sheep numbers and cattle numbers to adjust towards long‐run optimal levels. Results also indicate that, after accounting for adjustment costs, own‐price product supply and input demand responses are inelastic in both the short and long run.     

Short‐run and long‐run dynamics of farm land allocation: panel data evidence from Denmark1

This study develops and estimates a dynamic multi‐output model of farmers’ land allocation decisions that allows for the gradual adjustment of allocations that can result from crop rotation practices and quasi‐fixed capital constraints. Estimation is based on micro‐panel data from Danish farmers that include acreage, output, and variable input utilization at the crop level. Results indicate that there are substantial differences between the short‐run and long‐run land allocation behaviour of Danish farmers and that there are substantial differences in the time lags associated with different crops. To our knowledge, this is the first dynamic micro‐model of land allocation estimated on data from the temperate climate zone. Since similar farming conditions are found in northern Europe and parts of the United States and Canada, this result may be of wider interest.     

The firm size,farm size,and transaction costs: the case of hazelnut farms in Turkey

This study analyzes the effects of transaction costs on the size of hazelnut farms in Turkey. The study finds that higher land slope and higher variance of rain, as transaction‐cost‐increasing natural effects, lead to smaller hazelnut land holdings. High slope and weather variation can increase the costs of monitoring the laborers, make moving inputs or output up and down harder, limit the use of machinery, and reduce contractual performance of labor contracts. For farm production functions, land is a complex input with measurable interactions with nature. Contrary to common production theory approaches that take natural properties of land as given, the study develops a production function that incorporates natural properties, such as, slope and rain variance. The study utilizes two separate data sets for the estimations. The first data set explores the characteristics of hazelnut farmers, while the second one analyzes the regional characteristics of hazelnut farms.     

An error correction almost ideal demand system for meat in Greece

This paper represents a dynamic specification of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) based on recent developments on cointegration techniques and error correction models. Based on Greek meat consumption data over the period 1958–1993, it was found that the proposed formulation performs well on both theoretical and statistical grounds, as the theoretical properties of homogeneity and symmetry are supported by the data and the LeChatelier principle holds. Regardless of the time horizon, beef and chicken may be considered as luxuries while mutton‐lamb and pork as necessities. In the short‐run, beef was found to have price elastic demand, pork an almost unitary elasticity, whereas mutton‐lamb, chicken and sausages had inelastic demands; in the long‐run, beef, and pork were found to have a demand elasticity greater than one, whereas mutton‐lamb, chicken, and sausages still had inelastic demands. All meat items are found to be substitutes to each other except chicken and mutton‐lamb, and pork and chicken.     

Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: Evidence from panel data

Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main products exported by the US to different countries. For imports we used monthly series of the principal products imported by the US from Canada, the major source of imports. The strongest evidence was obtained by pooling the data across countries and products. In the short run, exports were very elastic with respect to the exchange rate (−2.6), while imports were moderately elastic (1.2). In the long run, the elasticity decreased but remained significant (0.5 for both exports and imports). Appreciation of the US dollar tended to matter more than depreciation, but the hypothesis that the effect of exchange rate was symmetric could not be rejected.     

Testing for Dynamic Misspecification of Input Demand Functions: An Application to Canadian Agriculture

Previous applications of the inter-temporal quadratic adjustment cost model in agriculture have failed to consider information gained from pre-testing in choosing an appropriate specification for dynamic demand of quasi-fixed inputs. A test strategy is outlined taking account of this information in order to consistently estimate adjustment cost and discount rate parameters. Canadian agricultural data are used in the empirical analysis. Test results suggest that the intertemporal quadratic adjustment cost model is inappropriate for modeling dynamic demand for land, labor and machinery.     

Impact of Genetically Engineered Varieties on the Cost Structure of Corn and Soybean Production in Canada

This paper investigates the impact of genetically engineered (GE) varieties on the cost structure of corn and soybean production in Canada. Employing an adoption index for each farm and a time trend with farm‐level data on production costs of grain corn and soybeans from 2000 to 2007, a translog cost function and the associated input‐share equations are estimated. The use of the adoption index improves the estimates of technological change and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth. The results demonstrate that the adoption of GE corn and soybean reduced the variable costs of production by 0.62% per year. The MFP of corn and soybean grew by 2.0% per year during the study period, and 31% of this growth is attributable to GE varieties of these crops. The results also reveal that the adoption of GE varieties reduced the cost shares of fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides, and machinery in corn and soybean production. While the adoption of GE varieties increased the cost shares of seeds and custom works including labor, only the former was statistically significant.     

我国玉米主产区生产成本效率分析*——基于吉林、河北和四川3省调研数据

［目的］通过实证分析2017年吉林、河北和四川3个玉米主产省份的玉米生产成本效率，及其与生产要素的相关性，为提高玉米生产成本效率，降低生产成本，研究提出有效的政策建议。［方法］文章采用2017年吉林、河北和四川3省的玉米生产投入情况的调研数据，运用数据包络分析法测算3省的玉米生产成本效率，通过最小二乘法测度要素投入与成本效率的相关性。［结果］吉林省（070）的成本效率远高于河北（039）和四川（035），3省的种子、化肥和机械投入对成本效率的影响存在较大地区差异。河北省和四川省的劳动力对成本效率的影响较大，吉林省的土地机会成本对成本效率的影响较大。［结论］建议调整种植结构，改善种植方式，整合资源，以增强农业生产能力。     

U.S. demand for organic and conventional vegetables: a Bayesian censored system approach

Demand for organic and conventional vegetables is investigated using data from A.C. Nielsen’s 2006 Homescan panel. We use a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, along with data augmentation, to estimate a large linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System with censored dependent variables. Demands are price elastic, and expenditure elasticities are very high for organic vegetables, whilst demands for conventional vegetables are primarily inelastic. We find a mix of gross substitution and complementarity among the vegetable products, but net substitution is the dominant pattern. Socio‐demographic characteristics also play important roles in demands. These findings can inform deliberations about marketing campaigns, nutrition education and policy interventions.     

Abstracts of Award-Winning Theses

This thesis determines the tradeoff between producer welfare and the provision of environmental benefits, through reduced soil erosion and fertilizer applications, on agricultural working land. A land-use allocation model of two Iowa counties is formulated as a mathematical programming problem, building upon the Takayama and Judge framework. Slope is used to reflect terrain heterogeneity, such that the spatial allocation of land-use practices impacts economic and environmental outcomes via a yield damage function and differentiated rates of soil erosion. The model differs from prior empirical models in that it includes both crop and livestock production, which gives the model the flexibility to choose whether the two activities are optimally nonseparable.
Price policy analysis indicates that the land use allocation is relatively insensitive to changes in commodity prices, i.e., altering commodity-based support payments is insufficient to attain environmental improvements. Several "green" policy instruments are simulated to estimate the cost to producers of reducing environmental damages. Limiting soil erosion with either a regulatory standard or a per unit tax reduces the average return to land by 10%. Shifting current income support payments into a system of payments for conservation land management practices, similar in essence to the Conservation Security Program, cannot attain the same soil erosion reduction with less cost to producers. Overall, the inelastic response of land use practices to commodity prices indicates that targeting the use of productive inputs, as opposed to commodity outputs, may be a more efficient means of attaining environmental improvements.     

POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES

This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.     

Allocable fixed inputs as a cause of joint production: an empirical investigation

Leathers (1991) shows that while the existence of allocable fixed inputs can cause joint production (as in Shumway, Pope and Nash, 1984), it will not necessarily lead to joint production. The extent to which allocable fixed inputs cause joint production in agriculture is an empirical question. This paper offers an empirical answer. By estimating a short-run joint cost function, it is possible to identify levels of outputs for which joint production may be optimal in the short run but not in the long run. Only in these output regions will there be jointness caused by allocable fixed inputs. For the data in this paper (160 Wisconsin farms), these output regions are very small; thus allocable fixed inputs do not appear to be an important cause of jointness for these farms. Technical causes of jointness appear to be a significant cause of joint production.     

The impact of safety nets on technology adoption: a difference‐in‐differences analysis

This article contributes to a growing body of empirical literature relating credit constraints and incomplete insurance to investment decisions. We use panel data from rural Ethiopia to investigate whether participation in a safety net program enhances fertilizer adoption. Using a difference‐in‐differences estimator and inverse propensity score weighting, we find that participation in Ethiopia's food‐for‐work (FFW) program increased fertilizer adoption in the short run, but not in the long run. Results also indicate that the intensity of fertilizer usage increased with livestock holdings for FFW‐participant households, providing some evidence that the intervention helped asset‐rich farm households more than asset‐poor households. We find no significant effects of free distribution on fertilizer adoption or intensification. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that safety nets can be viewed as mechanisms that allow households to take on more risk to pursue higher profits. The results highlight the importance of safety net programs, their effectiveness in ensuring farmers that they will be protected against uninsured shocks, and how that assurance can translate into productivity‐enhancing behavior.     

Cost-effective nitrogen leaching reduction as influenced by linkages between farm-level decisions

This article focuses on how the linkages between various farm‐level decisions affect the choice of measures to reduce nitrogen leaching from crop production. A mathematical programming model is developed. The model considers not only management decisions that affect nitrogen leaching directly, but also other decision variables such as scheduling of field operations and machinery investments. A simplified analysis that ignores the latter management decisions, and the linkages between the various decisions, may result in abatement policies that are not cost‐effective because the policies will have other effects than expected. As an example, the empirical results show that subsidies to catch crops and spring ploughing may contribute to increased nitrogen load, quite contrary to the purpose of these subsidies. Further, it is noted that the characteristics of the production system make it costly to change land use, tillage practices, or fertilizer use drastically. Instead, cost‐effective nitrogen abatement includes a mix of various adjustments of farm‐level production practices. The EU set‐aside payment appears to reduce abatement costs.     

Induced innovation and spillover effects of US and Canadian research expenditures in Canadian agriculture

This study examines the induced innovation hypothesis (IIH) from 1958 to 2015 for two Canadian agriculture regions: Central Canada (the provinces of Ontario and Quebec) and Western Canada (the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba). There is broadly consistent support for the IIH for Canadian agriculture, especially for Western Canadian agriculture. In addition, there is support for the notion that US, as well as Canadian, research expenditures are important to explain changes in the input ratio in Canadian agriculture in the long run. This indicates the existence of spillover effects from US agricultural research expenditures to Canadian agriculture.     

Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Scottish Agriculture

The paper explores the distributional consequences of farm income mobility in Scotland, focusing on the extent to which farm income inequality is a chronic as opposed to a temporary phenomenon and on the nature of the dynamic processes driving changes in farm income inequality over time. The empirical results reveal that the majority of farm income inequality was long‐run or structural in nature, reflecting differences in both farm business size and farm‐specific factors such as land quality, managerial ability and business structures. Evidence of absolute convergence in farm incomes is explained by short‐run adjustments towards equilibrium or target incomes conditional upon prices, technology and farm business size, with farm business growth conditional upon survival found to have had no significant redistributive effect.     

Property rights reform to support China’s rural ‐ urban integration: household‐level evidence from the Chengdu experiment

In 2008, as part of a national experiment, Chengdu prefecture implemented ambitious property rights reforms including complete registration of all land together with measures to ease transferability and eliminate migration restrictions. Results from a difference‐in‐difference analysis of the National Statistics Bureau's regular household survey suggest that the reforms increased consumption and income, in particular for less wealthy and less educated households, with estimated benefits well above the cost of implementation. Local labour supply increased with the young shifting towards agriculture and the old towards off‐farm employment. The reforms also contributed to higher agricultural yields and profits through three channels, namely: (i) greater rental market activity that transferred land to more productive producers; (ii) substitution of purchased inputs for labour; and (iii) a shift out of grains towards vegetables, corn, and oilseeds all of which offer higher levels of profitability. All of these findings are consistent with the notion that, without reforms, imperfections in factor markets undermined investment and functioning of land and labour markets, preventing high‐value peri‐urban land from being used most effectively and reducing job creation.